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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 11:27:19

We shall see if the WTI tanks next week...


A major crash in the market usually takes place after the FED has CUT rates. That is what happened in 2008, and 1998. That is when the market begins to realize that it is pulling a Wily Coyote over a Grand Canyon of financial insanity. This time the abyss is a Debt Black Hole. It is one of those things that doesn't matter much until it does; and then it swallows you whole.

We hit Peak in March of this year, and after the 1979 production collapse it took about 6 months for the impact to hit the remainder of the economy. Of course, things are not likely to work out exactly the same way? In 1979 the world had less debt; about $210 trillion less to be exact. This is likely to look more like a super nova than just a few fallen heavenly angles. It will look like a gigantic tsunami of cascading defaults rolling over continent after continent.

It is about time to pack up, and migrate. With 93% of all asset classes producing negative returns, Mars would be a good choice.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 11:37:00

shortonoil wrote:It is about time to pack up, and migrate. With 93% of all asset classes producing negative returns, Mars would be a good choice.


Yes. Please go, ASAP.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 14:35:28

Yoshua wrote:I think that a death cross is just a term traders use, to identify an inflection point, to go short the asset.

We shall see if the WTI tanks next week...


Why the interest? So what if it does? So what if it goes higher? In either case, short term market moves aren't generally interesting except to a commodities trader.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 14:37:35

shortonoil wrote:It is about time to pack up, and migrate. With 93% of all asset classes producing negative returns, Mars would be a good choice.


So the welsher has just given up on even trying to hide his perma doomer dumbassery at this point?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 16:29:09

It is about time to pack up, and migrate. With 93% of all asset classes producing negative returns, Mars would be a good choice.


Oh dear. Although 2018 saw many asset classes with overall negative returns as a consequence of the October through December correction January - May numbers show that not a single asset class has negative returns....they are all positive. But, as usual, ignore the data when it disagrees with your particular doom scenario.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/historical-asset-class-returns
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 09:13:53

January - May numbers show that not a single asset class has negative returns


More commentary from an uninformed block head with delusions of actually believing that they know what they are talking about..

The annual returns for 2019 are based on monthly returns from January to June.


Ever heard the expression, "sell in May, and go away."

That is because asset returns almost allows fall after the first half, if they are going to fall that year. The returns in the first half of the year for 2018 were also all positive. The year ended with 93% negatives, which was as bad as the 2008 GFC. Now that you are done making an idiot out of yourself, what's the encore? Is it going to be that debt doesn't matter?

Really; being able to use a search engine is not the same thing as having a functioning brain.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/his ... ss-returns
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 10:17:10

More commentary from an uninformed block head with delusions of actually believing that they know what they are talking about..


So you are arguing with official data again? You stated that the vast majority of asset classes were now making negative returns....the data says you are lying or just stupid. In the first quarter of 2019 no asset classes made negative returns. Maybe the data on your bizarro planet is different though. :roll:

That is because asset returns almost allows fall after the first half, if they are going to fall that year. The returns in the first half of the year for 2018 were also all positive. The year ended with 93% negatives, which was as bad as the 2008 GFC. Now that you are done making an idiot out of yourself, what's the encore? Is it going to be that debt doesn't matter?


Jesus wept .....here is what you said:
With 93% of all asset classes producing negative returns, Mars would be a good choice


You did not say that in 2018 asset classes produced negative returns, you claimed they were currently producing negative returns which is clearly not true. But nice try at trying to obfuscate. You continually make comments that are not backed up by data and expect that no one here will call you out, either that or English is a second language for you and your communication skills are worse than your financial/math skills. :roll:
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 10:40:48

shortonoil wrote:More commentary from an uninformed block head with delusions of actually believing that they know what they are talking about..


No different than you and oil and gas stuff.

As evidenced by you being a welsher.

Throwing stones in glass houses, etc etc.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 08:16:32

Saudi Arabia now aims to reduce global crude inventories to 2011-2014 levels...or about 200 million barrels lower than today...or to a level when prices were around USD 100 per barrel.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 10:06:50

Saudi Arabia now aims to reduce global crude inventories to 2011-2014 levels...or about 200 million barrels lower than today...or to a level when prices were around USD 100 per barrel.


Talk about “fake news”. What was actually agreed to was simply extending the existing cuts and monitoring the situation

OPEC reached a deal to extend production cuts until March 2020 on Monday. The Middle East-dominated producer group was able to overcome their differences after five hours of negotiating in Vienna.
In a statement released Tuesday, the energy alliance said it had made the decision to prolong production cuts “in view of the underlying large uncertainties and its potential implications on the global oil market.”


The main problem has been continual increases in US production. They recently reached a new record output. So OPEC and Russia maintaining current production levels and the US increasing production doesn't equate to a sudden lowering of total supply.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 10:37:30

Saudi Arabia now aims to reduce global crude inventories to 2011-2014 levels...or about 200 million barrels lower than today...or to a level when prices were around USD 100 per barrel.


Of course oil prices have to be kept up. The Saudis have to pay for their 28 million, live in, welfare recipients. The real market oil price wouldn't cover it. They are about $30/barrel short. Their best bet is to get the US into a war with Iran, or practically anyone in the Gulf; but the radical Sunni (the Royal Family) would prefer it be those filthy pig loving Shites. Of course as Iran gets around SWIFT, and dump another million barrels a day onto the market, and the Saudi population begins to starve, being a salesman for French Rivera estates will be the place to be.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 13:43:43

Russian Energy Minister Novak Says Russia Supports Using 2010-2014 Period For Oil Reserve Metrics

So it's not just Saudi Arabia that wants to reduce world crude inventories.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 14:15:04

Russian Energy Minister Novak Says Russia Supports Using 2010-2014 Period For Oil Reserve Metrics

So it's not just Saudi Arabia that wants to reduce world crude inventories.


Demand was anywhere from 3 - 4 MMbbl/d less back then so setting output to the past level doesn't make much sense unless you are assuming that the US will keep raising output levels.

But, as I pointed out, neither OPEC nor Russia have agreed to cut output further, they have simply agreed to maintain the cuts that were already implemented months ago. That does not remove more crude from the equation.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 14:49:01

There's an emergency situation, as the VP was called back to the Whitehouse.

Some are speculating that an attack on Iran will start to day. I don't know if the U.S actually even has the logistic in place for an attack.

Maybe E.T is about to invade. Independence day is close.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 08:55:32

Some are speculating that an attack on Iran will start to day. I don't know if the U.S actually even has the logistic in place for an attack.


I doubt if much will happen until the US has its new laser defense systems up, and running. Losing an aircraft carrier to an Iranian anti-ship missile would be embarrassing. According to Stars and Strips that won't be for another year. By then Washington will have forgotten all about Iran, and be focusing on a new diabolical enemy of the State. The dog and pony show will go on until either the dog, or the pony drop dead.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 13:14:35

rockdoc123 wrote:The main problem has been continual increases in US production. They recently reached a new record output. So OPEC and Russia maintaining current production levels and the US increasing production doesn't equate to a sudden lowering of total supply.

Yup, that's the way I read the story.

And the overall commentary I saw on the story in the article I read was wondering how long the Saudis would be willing to hold down production in the face of increasing production in the US Shale area.

The theme was "don't get used to it", implying when the price supporting goes away the price could go down meaningfully again.

Funny thing, the one thing we're not seeing (from reliable sources) in all the discussion is the idea of significant oil SHORTAGES, or that the economy can't afford to run on oil at or near current prices.

Funny how that works, given how "wise" the ETP bozo is. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 13:16:38

shortonoil wrote:
Some are speculating that an attack on Iran will start to day. I don't know if the U.S actually even has the logistic in place for an attack.


I doubt if much will happen until the US has its new laser defense systems up, and running. Losing an aircraft carrier to an Iranian anti-ship missile would be embarrassing. According to Stars and Strips that won't be for another year. By then Washington will have forgotten all about Iran, and be focusing on a new diabolical enemy of the State. The dog and pony show will go on until either the dog, or the pony drop dead.

Given how wise and accurate all your other predictions and prognostications are ... :roll:

surely we can take this to the bank! :P

One wonders why you even bother to comment. Because you like listening to yourself? Or to impress the 3 ETP adherents who still believe in you?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 13:23:23

Yoshua wrote:There's an emergency situation, as the VP was called back to the Whitehouse.

Some are speculating that an attack on Iran will start to day. I don't know if the U.S actually even has the logistic in place for an attack.

Maybe E.T is about to invade. Independence day is close.


Is there ANY nonsense that you don't go for, hook, line and sinker?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 08:48:01

The emergency situation seems to be related to the Russian nuclear sub that had a fire: at the funeral for the 14 Russian nuclear submariners today, a high-ranking military officer reportedly said they died preventing a “catastrophe of global proportions.”

As the net energy from fossil fuel production declines and economies start to turn into Venezuela, Syria and Yemen...we will probably have incidents like Chernobyl again.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 14:19:52

As the net energy from fossil fuel production declines and economies start to turn into Venezuela, Syria and Yemen...we will probably have incidents like Chernobyl again.


With global debt exploding exponentially, and the very monetary system itself in serious peril, the funds to maintain the world's 340+ nuclear plants may soon not be available. It may not require a nuclear war to get rid of the tree rodents. We have likely built our own dooms day devises. The clever monkey hypothesis needs a serious rethink.
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