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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 11:35:51

China, the crude buyer of last resort.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D90amN2WkAE ... me=900x900
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Cog » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 13:57:56

Yoshua wrote:China, the crude buyer of last resort.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D90amN2WkAE ... me=900x900


God only knows what you were trying to show with this graph since you are a typical fast crash doomer, whose head is firmly up your posterior. Seems like it shows more consumption over time to me. But I don't use astrology and tea leaves to predict the future.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 14:59:15

China, the crude buyer of last resort.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D90amN2WkAE ... me=900x900


What a bizarre response above? What?

China's own fields have been in decline since about 2000 when their giant, Daquing, began coming in with a 98% water cut. The field was resurrected by tertiary methods, but has been losing production volume ever since. China's attempt at producing Shale oil has been pretty much a failure, so it shouldn't be a surprise that they have become ever more dependent on imports. Their volume of imports will be changing as their declining economy spirals ever more downward, but since the entire world is now in decline they may retain the position of largest importer for some time.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 15:28:43

China, the crude buyer of last resort.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D90amN2WkAE ... me=900x900


With the US now intentionally cutting off oil production from countries like Venezuela and Iran to keep the price elevated and keep its own wheezing disaster, Shale, in business for as long as possible, importers like China will likely to be forced into cutting their supply. It will be interesting to see what that graph looks like in two years.

PS: Yoshua since you are; quote, quote, "a doomer" (no definition given, it may be Newspeak?) any chart that you post must be wrong. That is a direct order from the Ministry of Love, Eurasia Government. Then again, it may have been Oceania? Anyway, the one we have always been at war with.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 15:51:28

PPS: Yoshua if found guilty of a thought crime you will be vaporized! And, Cog is serious as he is using the FORCE. He also has a living room full of camels, and has no idea why they are there.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 15:55:17

shortonoil wrote:the US now intentionally cutting off oil production from countries like Venezuela and Iran to keep the price elevated and keep its own wheezing disaster, Shale, in business for as long as possible

Image

(and not zerohedge).
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 16:53:32

China's own fields have been in decline since about 2000 when their giant, Daquing, began coming in with a 98% water cut.


More moronic nonsenses. Daquing began its decline in 1999 and overall China oil production rose from 3.2 MMbbl/d in 1999 to 4.3 MMbbl/d in 2015 and then dropped slightly to 3.7 MMbbl/d in 2018. So, no, China’s oil fields have not been in decline since 2000…but of course you don’t want to confuse yourself with actual data.

China's attempt at producing Shale oil has been pretty much a failure, so it shouldn't be a surprise that they have become ever more dependent on imports.


And as I have posted previously China was never interested in “Shale oil” given the bulk of their interior basins were buried too deep so not prospective for liquids. They have been looking for unconventional gas all along. China’s proven gas reserves are at 195 trillion TCF or about 2/3 of the US but in the US shale production accounts for 85% of natural gas whereas in China currently it is only 10% meaning they have a lot of room to increase production. China’s recoverable unconventail gas is said to be near 1,115 TCF according to the IEA. China is predicting gas production from tight reservoirs to double from 2018 levels by the end of next year after having already doubled from 2007 through 2017. But again you seem content with just making crap up.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 01:05:33

shortonoil wrote:
China, the crude buyer of last resort.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D90amN2WkAE ... me=900x900


With the US now intentionally cutting off oil production from countries like Venezuela and Iran to keep the price elevated and keep its own wheezing disaster, Shale, in business for as long as possible, importers like China will likely to be forced into cutting their supply. It will be interesting to see what that graph looks like in two years.

Or, in the real world, with tensions high between Iran and the US and the possibility of a shooting war in/near the Strait of Hormuz disrupting oil supplies -- gasp -- oil futures are rising meaningfully accordingly, just as the logic of supply demand would predict they do. Same as it ever was.

And yet, somehow, even though oil is far above the MAP and rising daily, the world keeps spinning and people keep buying gas and going about their lives. Imagine that.

...

The POTUS has been in the news in recent months trying to jawbone oil prices down with KSA. And how, exactly, is this "to keep the price elevated", to quote your nonsense?

Bueller? The more you post about oil and economics, the more you make Elon Musk look stable and able to make accurate forecasts in his "area of expertise".

Congrats, because THAT takes some doing. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 08:37:37

Or, in the real world, with tensions high between Iran and the US and the possibility of a shooting war in/near the Strait of Hormuz disrupting oil supplies -- gasp -- oil futures are rising meaningfully accordingly, just as the logic of supply demand would predict they do. Same as it ever was.


A shooting war like the one we saw with North Korea, Venezuela, and the one we aren't going to see with Iran? The ones that have kept the price of oil up for the last year? The US doesn't want a shooting war, can't afford one, and probably can't win one. Modern weapons that anyone can now buy has made conventional war impracticable. Losing an aircraft carrier, or two is not winning! The US can only afford to finance "freedom fighters" that massacre innocent ethic populations, cut off peoples heads, or burn them alive in steel cages. Instead the US is now using its primary weapon like an alien invader; the $. Sanctions, sanctions everywhere from sea to shining sea. It only wants to shut off oil supplies to keep the remainder of the Industry alive for a little while longer, including its own wheezing, coughing, dying disaster of a shale industry.

Keep stuffing that MSM bullcrap into your gullet. They need brain dead subscribers like you to keep buying into their constructed, ridiculous, daily narratives to keep their dog and pony show in business.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 10:01:08

shortonoil wrote:Keep stuffing that MSM bullcrap into your gullet.


Says the permadoomer.

How about we stick to the basics, you pay off on the bet you lost, and we can go back to making fun of how MAXIMUM in your world really isn't a maximum.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 10:31:04

A large crude draw: EIA -12.788 million barrels. U.S imports are down and exports are up as the sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are kicking in.

WTI USD 60
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 11:22:54

A large crude draw: EIA -12.788 million barrels. U.S imports are down and exports are up as the sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are kicking in.

WTI USD 60


The last OPEC report had Iran down to 600,000, some are estimating 400,000. That is from Iran's Peak of almost 4 mb/d. Between Iran and Venezuela the US is making out very well, or it would be if it stops burning down its refineries. It appears that both are being allowed just enough production to supply their own requirements.

The sanctions are working well to support US production, especially its sick Shale industry. That will go with its bond market. With world legacy decline at 3.8 mb/d against new production of 1.38 mb/d, and the decline in Venezuela and Iran the price of oil has been moving up very little. The world oil market is precariously balanced. How long that can hold is anyone's guess.

https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/ ... production [Venezuela production]
https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/crude-oil-production
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 13:29:06

Yoshua wrote:A large crude draw: EIA -12.788 million barrels. U.S imports are down and exports are up as the sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are kicking in.

WTI USD 60


Outstanding news for US E&Ps, imports down, exports up, and US consumers recently hitting a record of gasoline consumption. These stats have US net oil independence written all over them.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 13:31:29

shortonoil wrote: The world oil market is precariously balanced. How long that can hold is anyone's guess.


Well, 15 years ago you said it wasn't precariously balanced but ready to collapse. You remember your old discredited claims? The internet does!

Why don't you employ a few sock puppets to bolster your position, maybe they can explain how welshers are really fine people in disguise?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 14:22:05

shortonoil wrote:It only wants to shut off oil supplies to keep the remainder of the Industry alive for a little while longer

Image

Your cynical anti-establishment imagination is running wild again.

My eyes roll anytime someone starts off a whiney screed with "they only want to [fill in the blanks] because". It's almost always based on nothing but the poster's conspiratorial imagination.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 15:46:17

Dance Of The Living Dead

The befits of falling interest rates: zombie companies, lower productivity, and less competition.

Well, who could have knod?

The equity market is screaming for lower rates. When the entire portfolio is power by corporate stock buy backs with borrowed money, it becomes a snake eating its own tail. Its called destroying your own business model to make a quick buck. The world is being run, by what could be called, not quit geniuses, and the price of oil is responding positively. It becomes difficult to calculate the future price of oil when the economy is running backwards.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... iving-dead
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 12:13:30

The WTI 50 DMA & 100 DMA are just about to form a death cross as global trade is in contraction.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-DclpjW4AE ... me=900x900
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 13:56:38

shortonoil wrote:Dance Of The Living Dead

The befits of falling interest rates: zombie companies, lower productivity, and less competition.

Well, who could have knod?


You were saying the same things 15 years ago. You aren't even right like a clock at this point.

Do you even know that you are a uni-directional parrot without a shred of analytical ability in this regard?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 14:07:52

Yoshua wrote:The WTI 50 DMA & 100 DMA are just about to form a death cross as global trade is in contraction.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-DclpjW4AE ... me=900x900


So do you use the words "death cross" to make "just another recession" sound more scary?

Where is the BDI nonsense nowadays? Wasn't that a great doomer standby for the end of civilization last time? Or, as it turned out not to indicate collapse, was it rightfully abandoned?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 15:13:46

I think that a death cross is just a term traders use, to identify an inflection point, to go short the asset.

We shall see if the WTI tanks next week...
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