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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 13:57:31

Worldwide depression brewing


Debt brings down individuals, companies, nations, and it will bring down the world! World debt is now growing by $35 trillion a year, which is almost half of the world's GDP. World debt growth is accelerating. It will grow by over $100 trillion in the next 18 months. Debt crushes economies; it crushes capital investments, productivity, and it crushes income. There is no central bank of debt management; printing more fiat only produces more debt! The world's entire system for producing goods and services is teetering on the edge of the abyss. Another crop failure, another rogue state, another insane war, or another million refugees may very well plunge it over the edge.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... ders-slump
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... over-globe
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 14:19:24

Armageddon wrote:GERMANY JUN FINAL #MANUFACTURING PMI: 45.0 V 45.4E (confirms 6th straight contraction)

Australia Manufacturing PMI (June): 49.4 (prior 52.7)


Worldwide depression brewing


Sounds bad. Out of curiosity, did you at ANY point in time, EVER, post why the stock market market wasn't crashing as it climbed from the lows you claimed were only going to get worse back during the peak oil collapse days, to the huge increases it made instead? Or do you just avoid discussing why the title of this thread doesn't match reality in the hopes that everyone is stupid enough to not notice the disconnect?

Admittedly, assuming that the other McDoomers are that stupid was a solid move back when they hadn't fled the light of day for cover under their rocks, but once they did...well....folks who can fire off two synapses are already twice as smart as that gang and might note the discontinuity.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 14:44:17

Debt crushes economies; it crushes capital investments, productivity, and it crushes income.


Debt is a serious problem when the interest is being paid for with income/revenues that can't handle it. In the US the carrying costs on current debt make up 10% of the 2020 US budget. That is slightly higher than most would like to see (6% is usually a goal), but there is no way in the world that the US cannot finance the current debt levels. If interest rates were suddenly to scream higher it could be a problem but that is not expected to happen anytime soon. This is why there are few in the finance side of things who are seriously worried about current debt levels other than they would like to see them not go any higher.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 14:51:24

Gentlemen! It's infrastructure week! And it's looking hot out there!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-YXI-hXYAM ... name=large
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 14:58:32

The Leader of the Free World even brought her daddy along to Osaka.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-X3nnlWwAA ... name=small
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 15:06:35

A vote for crazy Sanders?

Please vote for Ivanka!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1145520734980075520
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 16:12:42

This is why there are few in the finance side of things who are seriously worried about current debt levels other than they would like to see them not go any higher.


If that is the best joke in your comedian showcase, don't give up your day job. Debt also has another bad side effect. It destroys liquidity. You will see the impact this year when the US goes to the bond market with another train load of Treasury paper. The 10 year is already at 2%, which is not very far from 0%. But world debt is growing half as fast as total GDP. Where are the funds going to come from to pay the service cost on that debt. They will come out of your household budget. The end consumer pays all the costs one way or another. The FED could print it but that just makes more debt. So what you are inferring is that debt doesn't matter; I will be sure to notify the tax department, the power company, the phone company, and my insurance agent. World debt is growing by $35 trillion per year at present. That rate will be increasing dramatically in the near future. Debt has an interest cost associated. The more you have the more you get.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 16:31:43

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 1bf2dcd790


Here’s where the trade war and debt may intersect disastrously. Since 2003, global debt has soared. As a share of the world economy (gross domestic product), the increase went from 248 percent of GDP to 318 percent. In the first quarter of 2018 alone, global debt rose by a huge $8 trillion. The figures include all major countries and most types of debt: consumer, business and government.

 But to service these debts requires rising incomes, while an expanding trade war threatens to squeeze incomes. The resort to more tariffs and trade restrictions will make it harder for borrowers to pay their debts. At best, this could slow the global economy. At worst, it could trigger another financial crisis.

Note that the danger is worldwide. It’s not specific to the United States. In a new report, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), an industry research and advocacy group, says the debts of some “emerging market” countries (Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina) seem vulnerable to rollover risk: the inability to replace expiring loans. In 2018 and 2019, about $1 trillion of dollar-denominated emerging-market debt is maturing, the IIF says.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 17:03:28

rockdoc123 wrote: This is why there are few in the finance side of things who are seriously worried about current debt levels other than they would like to see them not go any higher.


LMFAO. Que Upton Sinclaire:

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”


I've worked for builders who swore that the home building business was going to continue to boom,, right up to the point they declared bankruptcy. I worked for software engineers who swore the dotcom boom was a forever thing. One of them spent most of the 2000s tending bar, living with his parents and avoiding creditors. I've heard you oil monkeys do the same thing right up to the point the pink slips go out.

But I suppose confirmation bias isn't a thing in your world. You guys just keep getting smarter and smarter, but never less greedy 8)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 17:11:15

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:GERMANY JUN FINAL #MANUFACTURING PMI: 45.0 V 45.4E (confirms 6th straight contraction)

Australia Manufacturing PMI (June): 49.4 (prior 52.7)


Worldwide depression brewing


Sounds bad. Out of curiosity, did you at ANY point in time, EVER, post why the stock market market wasn't crashing as it climbed from the lows you claimed were only going to get worse back during the peak oil collapse days, to the huge increases it made instead? Or do you just avoid discussing why the title of this thread doesn't match reality in the hopes that everyone is stupid enough to not notice the disconnect?

Admittedly, assuming that the other McDoomers are that stupid was a solid move back when they hadn't fled the light of day for cover under their rocks, but once they did...well....folks who can fire off two synapses are already twice as smart as that gang and might note the discontinuity.




What does the stock market have to do with the economy?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 17:36:13

The IMF begs to differ with Rockdoc
[/quote] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its latest World Economic Outlook, along with some stark warnings. Exploding public debt resulting from mega bailouts and printing trillions to stimulate economies have limited the policy tools central banks have to deal with future crises.

In other words, central banks are already handcuffed with what they can do to combat future economic problems. They will be unable to handle the global debt bomb when it finally arrives.

The bond market is not helping, either. While the Fed grapples with its short-term interest rate policies, the bond market, which controls long-term interest rates, is already in a bear market. In other words, interest rates on Treasury notes, mortgages, and long corporate bonds are already rising significantly.

For example, the rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rallied from 2.06% in September of last year to its current 3.06%. That does not look like much, but it is a 50% increase in just 14 months.

Don't forget, as interest rates rise, the dollar value of bonds and notes goes down. In fact, in just the three weeks from late September to mid-October, $1 trillion in bond value was wiped out, according to the Bloomberg Barclays Multiverse Index. [/quote]

https://moneymorning.com/2018/11/28/were-racing-toward-a-global-debt-bomb-heres-how-to-survive-it/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 19:24:47

Armageddon wrote:What does the stock market have to do with the economy?


The title to this thread is about the stock market crash (:lol: :lol: )Dow closes at all time high today! that geniuses like you are confusing with off topic crap like manufacturing in Australia or whatever else you are posting in an attempt to distract from how you can't find anything effecting my 401k plan other than McDoomer nonsense.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 20:09:01

Where are the funds going to come from to pay the service cost on that debt. They will come out of your household budget.


apparently you aren't paying attention.....the debt servicing cost for the 2020 year is 10% of the budget, meaning it already has taken into account tax income at current levels. What part of it is 10% of the budget and already accounted for do you not understand?

So what you are inferring is that debt doesn't matter; I will be sure to notify the tax department, the power company, the phone company, and my insurance agent. World debt is growing by $35 trillion per year at present. That rate will be increasing dramatically in the near future. Debt has an interest cost associated. The more you have the more you get.


Once again, either you don't bother to read anyone's posts or you are indeed illiterate. I pointed out that the time that debt becomes a problem is when a country can no longer cover the costs of interest on that debt (otherwise referred to as carrying cost). So debt would be a problem if the carrying cost was higher than country net revenues or made up the vast majority of the annual budget (ie. it limits what else the country can spend on). In the US it is 10% of the total budget going forward.....this is not going to bankrupt them no matter how much you want it to at current interest rates.

I've worked for builders who swore that the home building business was going to continue to boom,, right up to the point they declared bankruptcy. I worked for software engineers who swore the dotcom boom was a forever thing. One of them spent most of the 2000s tending bar, living with his parents and avoiding creditors. I've heard you oil monkeys do the same thing right up to the point the pink slips go out.


Not sure what you are babbling about. Anyone who has gone bankrupt because of high debt is paying much, much more in carrying costs than 10% of their budget. In fact, most financial planners will tell you to keep your mortgage payments below 30% of your monthly budget (3 times the current % of the US budget) acknowledging that it isn't until that level that things get a bit dicey. And I know many, many "oil monkeys" who are worth more than 10 million, several in the hundreds of millions, so your anecdote is nothing more than cherry-picking from your presumably active imagination.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 20:16:13

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:What does the stock market have to do with the economy?


The title to this thread is about the stock market crash (:lol: :lol: )Dow closes at all time high today! that geniuses like you are confusing with off topic crap like manufacturing in Australia or whatever else you are posting in an attempt to distract from how you can't find anything effecting my 401k plan other than McDoomer nonsense.




Ive said numerous times that this thread should be changed to economic collapse. Thats probably where the confusion is.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 23:24:35

rockdoc123 wrote:...........

Not sure what you are babbling about. .........


You got that part right. Clueless,,, or just being willfully obtuse. Doesn't matter much.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 02:19:24

Every business cycle has ended with a stock market top. This business cycle has been fueled by zero rates and QE. What comes next is anybody's guess.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-beTh1XUAE ... ame=medium
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 03:06:22

The 2018 fed.gov interest outlay to GDP ratio is low relative to the last 40 years.

Image

The Congressional Budget Office projects that the fed.gov interest outlay to GDP ratio will rise to ~3% by 2029 and ~5% by 2049.

Image
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55331
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 09:49:44

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:GERMANY JUN FINAL #MANUFACTURING PMI: 45.0 V 45.4E (confirms 6th straight contraction)

Australia Manufacturing PMI (June): 49.4 (prior 52.7)


Worldwide depression brewing


Since when is a PMI slightly below 50 a sign of a "depression"? Especially a "worldwide" depression?

When you constantly point nonsense, you just become less and less credible.

BTW, it looks like Trump has waken up and realized he has an election campaign he wants to win -- so it looks like he's putting off the trade war with China, at least until AFTER the election.

That should help global confidence in things like confidence, re ordering durable goods, which you've been so "worried" about lately.

...

But of course, never post anything positive or balanced, as that would show some integrity, re your economic thesis. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 10:04:07

.
Armageddon wrote:What does the stock market have to do with the economy?

Your ignorance at times is astonishing, for one who claims to be such an economic expert.

Let me see. Reminds me of a certain class of posters on this site, generally. Oh yes, I have it -- the fast crash doomer crowd. :roll:

The stock market, to a large extent, is a reflection of the views of investors, of how the economy will be doing (to the extent that corporations function in a national and global economy) in 6 to 9 months.

THAT'S what the stock market has to do with the economy. A whole lot, actually. :idea:

For example:

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/541/ ... d-economy/

Anticipation effects. Stock markets are forward-looking.


By contrast, if the stock market predicts a recession, then share prices will generally fall – in anticipation of lower profits.


So, apparently, the experts (NOT you) who invest in the stock market aren't generally forecasting a recession -- at least not yet.

Not that I'd expect folks like you or shorty to ever learn anything.

Note that the linked page is an "economics help" page. Given the overall track record of the fast crash doomer class, the first thing you should do re economics is get some HELP, and plenty of it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 02 Jul 2019, 12:33:16

I’ll say it slow so you can understand. The stock market has nothing, I’ll repeat that, nothing, to do with the economy. The stock market only cares about cheap money. It’s like a crack addict wanting crack. Why do you think it lost thousands of points when the FED tried raising rates late last year? Why do you think we are at record highs when all the economic data is horrible?

Think for yourselves and quit being gullible sheep.
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