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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 16:49:01

The S&P hasn't done much in a year. It is still below its all time high in spite of the pump, pump attempts by Wall Street, the big banks, and their constant cheerleaders, the MSM.


Well thats a different story than the actual market is reporting:

The S&P 500 finished with a 0.6% gain and a 6.9% gain for June. The Dow Jones industrials rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.5%. The S&P had its best June performance since 1955, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The Dow's 7.2% gain for the month was its best since 1938. The Nasdaq was up 7.4% on the month.


Our resource base of useable petroleum will be gone within a decade. 


Tell that to BP. In the 2019 Statistical Review, they give a reserve life index for world proven reserves of 50 years. Given that is proven reserves the reserve life for 3P or resources is much longer.

As usual you just make numbers up and hope no one will call you out. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 03:57:41

Yo, ETP Bozo.

World Bank 2018 current US dollar GDP printed $85.8 trillion. Stick your economic illiterate graph anomaly where the sun doesn't shine.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 08:45:58

Well thats a different story than the actual market is reporting:


Sounds a lot like the rest of the information that is presented here by the "experts". Disingenuous, or just plain fabricated, goal seeking horse pucky.

The S&P 500 hit an intraday high of of 2943.53 on 09/17/18. It closed Friday at 2940.72. The market is still awaiting its wonder day of 3000. Someone on WS has a box of moth eaten hats for the glorious day. We are seeing a bear market rally, and a resistence level that won't go away.

Yo, ETP Bozo.


Yo, bean brained, Bimbo. (are you blonde?)

So, according to the World Bank, the world has had a 5 year average growth rate of 1.64% including the 17 $trillion the central banks have conjured out of thin air over the period. That should pay off that $253 trillion in world debt in no time at all? They conjure up a bunch of currency that has absolutely no connection to any economic activity, add it to the all ready debased currency, ignore the collapse in everything from world trade to manufacturing, and feed the results to mutton heads like you. Someday soon they will have to conjure up enough to cover the interest cost on that debt. Of course when they do the credit markets will collapse, and they will be out of business permanently, and they will then be selling their crypto. Sounds like things are well under control.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 11:06:34

Sounds a lot like the rest of the information that is presented here by the "experts". Disingenuous, or just plain fabricated, goal seeking horse pucky.


God you are a complete idiot. The record rise in the S&P and Dow has been documented pretty much everywhere in the financial news, but apparently, you don’t believe their statistics?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/stock-market-trump-xi-meeting-at-the-g-20-summit-in-focus.html

The S&P 500 advanced 0.6% to 2,941.74, led by the financials sector. For the month, the S&P 500 jumped 6.9%, its best June performance since 1955. The broad index is also up more than 17% this year, marking its biggest first-half gain since 1997.


Yet you look at this information and interpret it as the S&P having not done much this year. And you make this comment even though the S&P reached it’s all time high in June, 2019. No wonder you have problems interpreting financial reports.

The S&P 500 hit an intraday high of of 2943.53 on 09/17/18. It closed Friday at 2940.72. 



The S&P 500 closed on 09/16/18 at 2929 (higher than the close on 09/17) and on 4/28/19 it closed at 2946 and on 6/16/19 it closed at 2951. Completely different than the story you want to portray. Next time compare apples to apples.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 11:54:09

rockdoc123 wrote:...apparently, you don’t believe their statistics?


Sure he does, as long as they're negative.
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 15:16:22

Ceasefire: US, China Trade Talks "Back On Track" After Trump Concedes On Huawei

The "worst case" trade war scenario was avoided in Osaka on Saturday when Trump agreed to restart trade talks with Xi, holding off new tariffs on Chinese exports, and signaling a pause in the trade hostilities between the world’s two largest economies;


posted 06/26/19

What is coming will be a massive credit crisis. 80% of IG bonds are now rated BBB, and $13 trillion in world debt now has negative interest rates. Oil will have to continue being pulled out of production to keep the price elevated enough to keep the remainder of the industry alive. All asset classes will be posting negative returns, which will follow the 93% that already are in negative territory. The velocity of money will continue downward toward zero, as the economy perishes. The modern world will be into its last depression within two years as its GDP falls by 10% by then. Trump and Xi will come to some sort of agreement to give the world a few more days to run on false hope.


The MSM must be creamy their jeans on this one. The stock market is saved, and the world is safe for democracy, etc, and etc. The King is coming so push the manure wagon out of the middle of the road. The dog and pony show must go on!

In the meantime Europe is all set up to get around SWIFT, and put Iran back into the oil market. If/ When they do oil prices will crash, and our next crisis is all set to take the front page. How convenient; it pays to plan ahead.

The sad part of all of this is that unless something turns out much, much different than expected, world debt is about to explode. We could see the present $233 trillion at $1,000 trillion in less than 5 years.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 20:08:06

New York.
Philadelphia.
Dallas.
Richmond.
Kansas City.
Chicago.

All of June's regional surveys of business conditions have deteriorated. Monday's ISM Manufacturing release should be very interesting.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 20:20:47

2ND HIGHEST NUMBER OF $SPX COMPANIES ISSUING NEGATIVE EPS GUIDANCE FOR Q2 SINCE 2006
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 20:52:56

2ND HIGHEST NUMBER OF $SPX COMPANIES ISSUING NEGATIVE EPS GUIDANCE FOR Q2 SINCE 2006


OOOOOH, sounds ominous. Until you look at the data.
This relates to 87 companies who have issued negative EPS for the quarter (meaning they are projecting an EPS lower than the day before they announced it) as opposed to 26 companies issuing positive EPS. But in Q3 2018 there were 77 companies issuing negative EPS as there were for Q1 2019 and the market outperformed in both instances. So what does the change amount to? It is an 8% rise in companies reporting negative EPS for the next quarter. Given the 5 year average is 74 it suggests that there are always 65% of companies reporting negative EPS for the next quarter regardless of what the economy might be doing.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 21:44:24

2nd Highest Number of S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative EPS Guidance for Q2 Since 2006

Written by John Butters | Jun 28, 2019
Heading into the end of the second quarter, 113 S&P 500 companies have issued EPS guidance for the quarter. Of these 113 companies, 87 have issued negative EPS guidance and 26 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. The number of companies issuing negative EPS for Q2 is above the five-year average of 74. In fact, if 87 is the final number for the second quarter, it will mark the second highest number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for a quarter since FactSet began tracking this data in 2006 (trailing only Q1 2016 at 92).


What is driving the unusually high number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for the second quarter? At the sector level, seven of the 11 sectors have seen more companies issue negative EPS guidance for Q2 2019 relative to their five-year averages. However, the Information Technology and Health Care sectors are the largest contributors to the overall increase in the number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q2 relative to the five-year average.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 29 Jun 2019, 22:37:57

OK....all you did was confirm what I was saying with regards to the numbers.
Sounds like bad serious news from your post but it is only 10 more companies than the 5-year average and there has been a number of times where that 5 year average or higher number have reported negative EPS and that quarter ended up being very positive for the wider market.
So although you would like this to translate into an overall global recession to beat all recessions, it doesn't, not even close. In 2016 there were this many companies reporting negative EPS and guess what....no recession.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 04:43:56

It may have been the way our local tv news clipped the speeches, but the result (to me looking on) was that Trump was caving in to the Chinese, offering concessions with nothing reported in return. That could be one-sided reporting, or it could be the result of behind the scenes pressure on Trump that the trade war was hitting the US hard.

Anyway, I would not be surprised to see a jump in US stock market indexes when the weekend is over. [We can see how good my crystal ball is :P ]

- - -
The BBC analysis of the announcement https://www.bbc.com/news/world-48810070 said
President Trump has positioned his trade talks with Xi Jinping as a win for the US - but he may have also given Beijing exactly what it wants on Huawei.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 07:11:06

All of June's regional surveys of business conditions have deteriorated. Monday's ISM Manufacturing release should be very interesting.


What will be interesting is the hard data on manufacturing reported by the Fed on July 16 not ISM's soft survey data reported on July 1.

June Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... g-overview

Manufacturing is ~12% of the US economy by value added. What about the other ~88%?

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 08:29:42

Saudi Arabia, Russia agree to extend oil pact up to 9 months: report

After a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Japan, Putin told a news conference the deal would be extended in its current form and with the same volumes.

https://www.argaam.com/en/article/artic ... id/1297890

The Russians are having a change of attitude.

With Iran soon being able to circumvent SWIFT, which can put a couple more million barrels on the market, and drive the price through the floor, there is going to be cuts everywhere. Iran is now pumping 400K to 600K barrels per day with a capacity to expand that to 2.5 mb/d fairly rapidly. Keeping the price above breakeven is going to soon become impossible.

World debt is now growing over 3 times faster than GDP! Selling that oil, and anything else is going to become ever more difficult in an economy being crushed by its ever growing debt load. Peak will be driving the debt formation rate to explosive new all time highs. The world's present debt of $247 trillion is just the beginning. Expanding debt crushes expanding credit, and printing more currency expands the debt.

The central banks aren't going to be printing their way out of this one, and the stock market will begin to realize that there is no escape by fall.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 08:52:55

Saudi Arabia, Russia agree to extend oil pact up to 9 months: report


And the ETP Bozo's $2 WTI in 2021 gets crushed again. Not that it was not already crushed as the ETP Bozo MAP is $19 on June 30, 2019, ~$40 below the actual price.

World debt is now growing over 3 times faster than GDP!


No. The advanced economy debt to GDP ratio has been fairly flat for almost 10 years. For those that haven't passed grade 3 arithmetic, it means that the growth rates of debt and GDP are the same.

https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/tseries ... 84&i=49.10
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 09:36:09

China PMI
manufacturing 49.4. 2nd month of contraction
Export Orders 46.3 - 13th consecutive month below 50
New Orders 49.6


#globalcollapse
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 09:36:30

Corporate China has a debt problem (150 percent to GDP). After defaults last year, China has now officially stated that smaller banks have up 40 percent of non performing loans on their balance sheets. The corporates have USD 2.25 Trillion in dollar debt that will come due in 2 years.

https://speculatorsanonymous.com/articl ... k-failing/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 09:59:55

Central banks have run out of ammunition.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/central ... r=sharebar
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 11:48:50

Yoshua wrote:Central banks have run out of ammunition.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/central ... r=sharebar


You didn't read even your own doom article did you? LOL
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 12:32:43

OECD says that rates are at zero, or close to zero everywhere and that that is all the central banks can do.
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