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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 07:42:51

What’s wrong with a slowing economy? Is that what you said in 2007? We are entering 2007 again with 2x the debt and only 2% of magic FED bullets. What will the people say when they say they need more QE, more bank bailouts, more buyouts, ZIRP, etc? Those were supposed to be tools for a once in a lifetime event. We’ll see if people buy it again.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 09:44:18

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/freig ... 1906231105


Freight Shipments Sinking Globally, US Joins the Parade: Global Recession Starts

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 10:31:49

AdamB wrote: ........

What's wrong with a slowing economy? .....


Image

Ask those who lose their jobs. Maybe that doesn't matter to you much. Or ask Trump since he clearly considers the economy his trump card. He may want to rethink that since we are clearly coming due for a recession of some sort. And it seems like any return to full employment is taking longer over the last few recessions. Not so great for a consumption-based economy, and incumbents who have little else to brag about.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 15:56:58

Q1 GDP Revised Lower As Personal Spending Tumbles

Global Carmageddon Continues: Ford Set To Slash 12,000 Jobs Across Europe


I’m hearing there’s some really bad stuff happening in the US car industry too. We’ll hear more about this in the coming months.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 18:03:04

AdamB wrote:What's wrong with a slowing economy?


The economy MUST tank in order for Armageddon to justify pouring his life's savings into precious metals.

/thread
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 18:23:00

asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:What's wrong with a slowing economy?


The economy MUST tank in order for Armageddon to justify pouring his life's savings into precious metals.

/thread




My wife has several million, so i’m not too concerned. I just know what’s coming, so I decided to go all in. No regrets
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 18:26:13

KC FED survey just took a dump too.

Yet another recession-like metric. The Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey sagged to a 31-month low in June; and what is really disturbing is the sharp slide in vendor delivery delays to its most contractionary level since September 2015.

Twitter

NY, Philly, Chicago, Richmond, Dallas and now KC are all diving.

#buckleupson
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 19:45:43

And yet the banks which we have been led to believe by the doomsters here are ready to fail are doing just fine according to this years stress test

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/27/credit-suisse-tripped-up-by-fed-test-as-wall-street-boosts-payouts.html


Apart from Credit Suisse, every bank won approval to boost shareholder payouts under the capital plans they submitted. Credit Suisse received a conditional non-objection, which is the same designation that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley got last year. In the 2018 tests, the two U.S. investment banks fell below minimum capital levels under a stressed scenario.
Still, no bank failed the 2019 round of the Fed’s stress test, the second time that’s happened since it began the annual review in 2009. (The designation given to Credit Suisse is a kind of middle ground between passing and not passing.)
And overall, the results show a resilient banking industry compared to the depths of the financial crisis a decade ago, when the U.S. had to bail out lenders. The industry has bolstered the rigor of its planning for worst-case scenarios and more than doubled the capital it has to absorb losses to about $800 billion, according to the Fed.
“The stress tests have confirmed that the largest banks are both well capitalized and place a high priority on strong capital planning practices,” Randal Quarles, vice chair for supervision, said in a statement. “The results show that these firms and our financial system are resilient in normal times and under stress.”


This confirms what I was told by several people in the investment banking side of things. The measures that have been put in place will prevent bank failures of the kind experienced in 2008-2009
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 27 Jun 2019, 21:40:04

Germany Business Confidence tanks yet again

• ESI 102.6 71M low
• Manufacturing 73M low
• Consumer Conf 39M low
• Construction 12M low
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 07:15:30

Excluding what the company considered special items, FedEx said adjusted profit was $5.01 per share. While down from $5.91 a year earlier, the results beat expectations.


Earning are down 18% YoY but that is unimportant because they beat estimates? That is like the guy who falls out of a 100 story building, and at the fiftieth floor shouts out "no problem yet." The fluff brains are again having trouble connecting the dots; and there are only two dots!

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You can take a break now Armageddon; this will keep them busy for hours.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 08:23:22

Oh the noes, shorty is predicting the end of the world. Too bad he couldn't predict losing his wager and welching on paying it off. LOL
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 08:44:00

The ETP Bozo lost the wager to kublikhan 18 months ago. What a scumbag while his few remaining Side Car Clowns dance around in glee.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 09:33:24

Earning are down 18% YoY but that is unimportant because they beat estimates? That is like the guy who falls out of a 100 story building, and at the fiftieth floor shouts out "no problem yet." The fluff brains are again having trouble connecting the dots; and there are only two dots!


OK, apparently you are one of the slow ones in the audience (possibly the slowest). Earnings are essentially the same thing as net income. As I have pointed out time and time again net income includes a number of "accounting exercise" values including Depletion, Depreciation and Amortization. Those values say nothing about a companies day to day business or whether or not it is a going concern. As well, as is pointed out by the FedEx press release their earnings include a number of "one-offs" that will not repeat. When you remove those from the calculation the values look much better. It is that number (one-offs removed) that is important in understanding how well the company will do going forward. To put it in a context you might understand if in year X your house caught on fire and you ended up being out of pocket because of your shitty insurance would you then include a similar event in your X+n home budgets?

This is actually a big problem with some individuals here reporting financials from various companies without actually bothering to read the press releases or understand the submitted financials. As a consequence, we are continually berated with news of potentially catastrophic failure when the data actually shows business as usual. My suggestion, if you are going to spend time pointing to financial or economic measures, first understand how they are calculated and then compare them to historical data making sure that the variables included are the same.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 10:38:55

GHung wrote:
AdamB wrote: ........

What's wrong with a slowing economy? .....


Image

Ask those who lose their jobs.


Sure. Construction and real estate folks took a hit because of fraudulent financial activities and idiot American home buyers thinking they had a free ride to wealth. Even some banksters got bumped out of their 6 figure salaries.
But that was a recession, I said SLOWING economy. Such as has been going on, on and off, for a decade now. In between bursts of GROWING economy. And doomers have been singing the praises of one for doomer porn and ignoring all the growing part that happened in between.

You, and folks like Army and Short, pimp any of the slowdown as collapse. It is a bit ignorant of the basic dynamics of how any economy works, don't you think?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 10:43:25

shortonoil wrote:You can take a break now Armageddon; this will keep them busy for hours.


You must be kidding. Who listens to a welsher? I simply glance at whatever your nonsense of the day might be to see if you have paid off on losing the bet (or more than one, it isn't my job to keep track of how often you welsh, once a welsher always a welsher seems appropriate in your case.

You've been trying to recycle market news into doom news for 15 years, and I haven't even gotten through your old posts through 2008 when you must have been in full idiot overdrive. How you then began backtracking post 2008, that is the part I can't wait to read.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 13:35:41

The S&P 500 is now underperforming the Fed's M1 creation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-KbhdpXUAA ... name=large
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 14:52:32

Chicago PMI a disaster

53.4 expected , 49.7 actual

yes , under 50 ... as in CONTRACTION
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 15:10:22

AdamB wrote:Who listens to a welsher?


I'm done with Short. He's in my ignore filter.
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 15:34:25

At the close of the last business day of June 2019, Q2 2019 GDP nowcasts from the New York Fed and Atlanta Fed are 1.3% and 1.5%. I don't have access to the Blue Chip Consensus nowcast, but I imagine it is about the same.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

Oh BTW and since this is a peakoil website, the EIA recently posted US energy spending relative to GDP for 2017 - an uptick to 5.8% from the 2016 data point of 5.6%. The lowest 2 consecutive years ever. Affordability of energy is just fine.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec1_17.pdf
Last edited by marmico on Fri 28 Jun 2019, 16:05:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 28 Jun 2019, 15:38:51

The S&P 500 is now underperforming the Fed's M1 creation.


The S&P hasn't done much in a year. It is still below its all time high in spite of the pump, pump attempts by Wall Street, the big banks, and their constant cheerleaders, the MSM. The price of oil is about $20 too high to allow for real economic growth, so the world debt bomb just keeps on growing. Service on that debt now consumes about 10% of world GDP. More than all the military spending on the planet. We are consuming our asset base faster than it is being created. We are scheduled to pay for it in a future that will never arrive. Complete world bankruptcy is now baked into the cake, and our ongoing ecological collapse is not helping the situation. The Sixth Mass Extinction is here now, and rapidly accelerating. Our resource base of useable petroleum will be gone within a decade. The disappearance of other vital resources will immediately follow.

Any attempts to perpetuated and maintain the status quo are destined to only accelerate the demise. New paradigms are needed, a new understanding and appreciation of our world. If those things are not discovered soon, the natural order of things will pound us back into a time when they will become instinctual.
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