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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 13:29:33

Yoshua wrote:Anyway...can we move on and troll about something else to waste our time?


Isn't the yellowstone supervolcano gonna blow or is that doom-vector too old to be revived?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 14:40:18

asg70 wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Anyway...can we move on and troll about something else to waste our time?


Isn't the yellowstone supervolcano gonna blow or is that doom-vector too old to be revived?


YES!!!!

I remember on one of the other doomer boards that every time someone mistook a nearby buffalo herd trampling through a Yellowstone campground it was proclaimed as THE MOMENT!!! It was even more exciting than when peakers did it way back when, because Yellowstone was going to be a cool disaster and happening in real time, showing the world that Happy McDoomers were right! About something! Finally!

Planet X/Mayan calendar claptrap was once popular as well, it was on one of our office calendars as we counted down to end of the world. Refused to schedule meetings the week after the date, just in case! Doomers gotta be doomers.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 14:59:13

Fine! Let's continue to troll shortonoil!

Even if that Yellowstone will erupt one day...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 16:44:10

"We Cannot Explain It, But We've Got Stupid Slow" - Dallas Fed Survey Collapses To 3-Year Lows


'Soft' survey data in June has collapsed. On the heels of the plunge in Empire Fed Manufacturing and Philly Fed, Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey just crashed from -5.3 to -12.1 (worse than the weakest analyst estimate) and lowest since June 2016.

"I don’t care what the indicators say—things are slowing down in energy and manufacturing. Construction is still strong(ish). But, customers are shopping every nickel, quoting and requoting; no one wants inventory. Steel prices are dropping like a rock due to lack of demand and overcapacity. It is rough waters right now, for the last 60–90 days."

"China tariffs are a big drain on profits, so we are covering with a general price increase July 1. Future improvements are expected due to new product introductions."

"We cannot explain it, but we have gotten stupid slow, with incoming orders lagging way behind last year to date. At this rate, this will be the lowest year in over 15 years. All of our customers are complaining about being slow. Perhaps the economy is not in as good a condition—with all the uncertainty coming from Washington, D.C., people are afraid to pull the trigger on projects. Then adding on to our issues, San Antonio is about to implement mandatory paid sick time for hourly workers, adding even more pressure on profits, as we predict there will be widespread abuses of this. Most likely, this will result in a reduction in the workforce to cover the cost."


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... -year-lows


NY, Philly and now Dallas FED surveys are tanking majorly.

Gold and silver to the moon!! Hope you guys are hoarding them. 1/2 pt rate cut in July is a guarantee.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 17:07:08

Rockhead is trying to do math again?

Yes...I'm just trolling...


He wasn't working on math, he was working on getting his Ouija Board back in tune. His C# is running a little flat.

Fine! Let's continue to troll shortonoil!


What better way to put one's brain in neutral, and get paid by the word.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Now that we can be assured that the world has Peaked, Shale production (the only sector of the industry that has seen production gains in 14 years) increased by 1.38 mb/d from May to May. The world's legacy decline from existing formations was 3.7 mb/d. Now here is were Rockhead has trouble; 3.70 - 1.38 = 2.32 mb/d.

Now that we know that production is going to come up short at least 2.32 mb/d, and oil is going off line for at least two major producers (Iran and Venezuela) it becomes possible to estimate the impact that will have on the world economy. In 2017 a barrel of oil contributed about $3,000 to the GDP. With a 2019 loss of at least 7.29 mb/d, 2020 will see an $8 trillion decline in world GDP (assuming a one year lag). Or, about 10% of world GDP. That is significant as it means that we are heading into a good old fashion depression. The kind where people lose their job, their house, and companies fold up all over.

Dr. Duncan's hypothesis starts to look like a very real possibility.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 18:24:05

He wasn't working on math, he was working on getting his Ouija Board back in tune. His C# is running a little flat.


OH really? Please show us your data that supports 5 MMbbl/d decrease due to Iran and Venezuela sanctions. Go ahead we are waiting. I already showed the data from IEA. And Marmico showed similar data from another source. BTW in terms of legitimate data sources, pulling it out of your backside doesn't count.

Iran oil exports decreased exports from 2.6 MMb/d (2018 prior to sanctions) to 1.4 MMb/d (in May). That is a decline of 1.2 MMB/d

As to Venezuela sanctions were announced at the end of January 2019, since then output fell from 1.25 Mmb/d to 830 Kbpd. That is a decline of 1.08 MMB/d


so in what world is 1.2 MMb/d plus 1.08 MMB/d equal to 5 MMb/d? Please dazzle us with your supposed great math skills you moron. :roll:

And for those who actually care about the facts according to the IEA the drop in daily production in April was 300 Kpbd which they indicate is a product of maintenance outages in non-Opec countries and Russia complying with its informal quota given Opec production was actually up by 60 Kbpd despite Iran and Venezuela production decreases and this with Saudi Arabia holding its output far below its supply target.

In 2017 a barrel of oil contributed about $3,000 to the GDP


yeah right. :roll: Please show us the data that leads to that calculation instead of your ridiculous unsupported graphs. Given a bbl of oil on average in 2017 sold for $60/bbl (Brent) and it had to cost less than that or no one would have produced it that means you have magically created $2940 for each bbl. No wonder you keep getting it wrong when you attempt to read a financial statement. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 10:36:44

Things appear to be deteriorating all the way down the economic chain.

10Y Tumbles Below 2.00% As Stocks Fail At Friday Cliff-Edge Again

Blain: "We're Nearing The Moment When Everyone Tries To Exit The Bond Market At The Same Time - It Will Be 2007 Again"

Illiquidity has become a market theme lately – some very good articles about illiquid investments held by funds including Woodford, GAM and now, French fund H2O. The story is simple: in each case it looks like fund managers have been juicing returns in open-ended funds by buying illiquid assets that have proved difficult to sell. As soon as the market started to question their liquidity, these assets set like concrete. In Woodford’s case it was small cap equity. It was illiquidity and gating its Absolute Return fund that sank GAM last year - but it was a whole series of investments, including a large financing for the acquisition of a hydro-electric and aluminium smelter by an Indian commodities firm, that triggered the alarms.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... it-will-be

And, one must ask, how illiquid will $4.4 trillion in US BBB rated bonds be when the market turns south, or the $13 trillion in negative rated foreign bonds. Like mosquitoes from the age of the dinosaurs those funds will be frozen forever in amber. They will be about as liquid as confederate currency when it happens. Then where is the capital going to come from to finance all that cash flow negative Shale drilling?

Shale Pioneer: Fracking Is An "Unmitigated Disaster"

One estimate from the Wall Street Journal found that over the past decade, the top 40 independent U.S. shale companies burned through $200 billion more than they earned. A 2017 estimate from the WSJ found $280 billion in negative cash flow between 2010 and 2017.


"The shale gas revolution has frankly been an unmitigated disaster for any buy-and-hold investor in the shale gas industry with very few limited exceptions,” Steve Schlotterbeck, former chief executive of EQT, a shale gas giant, said at a petrochemicals conference in Pittsburgh.

“In fact, I'm not aware of another case of a disruptive technological change that has done so much harm to the industry that created the change.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... d-disaster

If the bond market goes on Tuesday, the oil age will be over on Wednesday!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 12:09:01

Chicago Fed, new home sales and consumer confidence all dove.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 13:07:08

New Home Sales Plunge 35.9% in the West, 7.8% Overall
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 13:51:58

Oh the noes, the Dow is down today. Time to start digging foxholes and prepare to repel boarders. LOL

Shorty is predicting the end of the world tomorrow. Lets see how that works out for him. :lol:

If the bond market goes on Tuesday, the oil age will be over on Wednesday!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 14:01:16

Short is only good at one thing, making hyperbolic clickbait-style headlines. That's part of his morning ritual. It's a creative-writing exercise and little more.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 14:20:19

Yoshua wrote:Fine! Let's continue to troll shortonoil!

Even if that Yellowstone will erupt one day...


Of course Yellowstone will erupt one day. And pointing out Short's ignorance on every topic related to oil and gas, economics, math and statistic isn't trolling, it just honestly evaluating one of the few hard core Happy McDoomsters left. Most of the others were smart enough to modify their understanding or tuck tail and run. The true zealots...well...they are still here!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 14:22:45

Armageddon wrote:New Home Sales Plunge 35.9% in the West, 7.8% Overall


<yawn> Been there, done that, Rocman ran to hide in the desert last time it happened. Why not just focus on cool things that you would really prefer?

Yellowstone!!! Fits right in with your username, right? What kind of measly nonsense is stock watching compared to what you really are looking for?

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 14:28:50

Did it ever occur to anybody else that Short's moniker "shortonoil" might literally describe his position in the market, meaning that he is positioned to make a killing if he can start a panic over an oil shortage?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 15:45:49

Goldman: "Following weaker than expected new home sales and revisions to retail sales, our Q2 GDP tracking declined by one tenth to +1.4%. "


Record credit card debt, record personal debt, record corporate debt and record govt debt, plus a 1.5 trillion deficit this year and all they can produce is 1.4% GDP?


Insane
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 25 Jun 2019, 17:05:57

That is what happens when politicians steal money hand over fist. Are you really and truly surprised? Did you think for one minute that what words come out of their mouths matter in the least?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 00:56:49

shortonoil wrote:Things appear to be deteriorating all the way down the economic chain.

10Y Tumbles Below 2.00% As Stocks Fail At Friday Cliff-Edge Again

Blain: "We're Nearing The Moment When Everyone Tries To Exit The Bond Market At The Same Time - It Will Be 2007 Again"

...

If the bond market goes on Tuesday, the oil age will be over on Wednesday!

Ah, your ignorance re even simple economic concepts is persistent and seems to know no bounds.

First, interest rates being down means the bond market is up. It's up, partly because traders are taking "risk off" positions, being nervous about oil and the US / Iran tensions. Also because people are worried about the US / China trade war and the G20 coming right up.

(And this isn't some keen insight on my part. I just scan the economic news on places like CNBC from time to time). :roll:

Not hard to figure out. Not armageddon. And NOT a sign of trouble in the US bond market.

....

By the way, this Bill Blain clown you cite so breathlessly, is just a stupid perma-doomer, making persistent bad calls like the perma-doomer clowns elsewhere.

He was calling for "the great crash of 2018" and cited for that by the ever clownishly wrong zerohedge in Nov. 2017.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11- ... ond-market

Of course, now that it's mid 2019, with no crash in sight, he's got to make more wrong doomer calls to maintain "credibility". LOL

But of course, your ilk believes him, or at least pretends to.

Get a life. Or is dealing with reality too difficult?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 02:12:39

The Great Recession or the Global Financial Crisis wasn't a normal recession. The banks had to be bailed out...the auto industry had to be bailed out...the stock market had to be bailed out...the government had to be bailed out... The Fed was forced to do ZIRP and QE.

The Eurozone was in crisis as well and the ECB had to do NIRP and QE. Almost every central bank in the world had to print money. The world money supply went parabolic and so did debt.

The Fed tried to normalise, but had to stop rate hikes at 2.5 percent and cut QT to half this year and will end QT all together in the autumn. The Fed is now talking about risks to the down side and QE and NIRP.

So what is coming?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 07:21:24

So what is coming?


What is coming will be a massive credit crisis. 80% of IG bonds are now rated BBB, and $13 trillion in world debt now has negative interest rates. Oil will have to continue being pulled out of production to keep the price elevated enough to keep the remainder of the industry alive. All asset classes will be posting negative returns, which will follow the 93% that already are in negative territory. The velocity of money will continue downward toward zero, as the economy perishes. The modern world will be into its last depression within two years as its GDP falls by 10% by then. Trump and Xi will come to some sort of agreement to give the world a few more days to run on false hope.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 07:31:35

If you weren't known as a welcher someone should challenge you to a bet on one of these daily off-the-cuff predictions.
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