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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 17:41:23

So far Trumps policies are working perfectly:- shut off Iran's oil production. Between Venezuela, and Iran the US has been able to pull about 5 mb/d off the market. 5 mb/d over a one year period (1.83 Gb) is more than the entire present US crude inventory (presently 1.32 Gb) less SPR. Without that 5 million missing barrels, WTI would now be about $10/ barrel. Then Trump really would have a problem.

Donald Trump will have been found strangled to dead on his second piece of chocolate cake. The Secret Service weren't present when it happened. Trump was siting on the John.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 01:12:48

shortonoil wrote:So far Trumps policies are working perfectly


Great. Doom...denied.

/end thread
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 07:28:52

ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET


Can't pay you - (as we should have expected) you have been cheating! The EIA has been cooking its books.

viewtopic.php?p=1421512#p1421512
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9dMsQ2WsAA ... me=900x900

Well why not? Maybe they got some on the job training from the BLS. They do it every month!

Got to keep those prices up: The Saudis have to pay for their 28 million, live in, welfare recipients. The real market price of oil won't cover it.

Between Venezuela, and Iran the US has already taken over 5 mb/d off line, and still the price has not gone up. To protect its own producers, and its preferred suppliers the US will have to continue removing supplies by any means available to it.

The approaching end of the oil age will be indicative of a declining economy that can no longer utilize all the oil being produced. If those 5mb/d where not removed inventories would now be more than doubled, and the price of oil would be $10 a barrel. Not good for the economy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 08:09:08

Between Venezuela, and Iran the US has already taken over 5 mb/d off line,


As per usual, the ETP Bozo failed grade 3 arithmetic.

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(3813-2370) + (1911-741) = 2.6 mb/d
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 08:51:31

shortonoil wrote:Can't pay you - (as we should have expected) you have been cheating! The EIA has been cooking its books.


I'm not the one you owe money to, Short. Do you need the terms of the bet dredged up and reposted here for all to see for the nth time? I'm just not going to allow you to arrogantly loooord over this forum as if you are some sort of voice of authority.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 10:20:42

So far Trumps policies are working perfectly:- shut off Iran's oil production. Between Venezuela, and Iran the US has been able to pull about 5 mb/d off the market. 5 mb/d over a one year period (1.83 Gb) is more than the entire present US crude inventory (presently 1.32 Gb) less SPR. Without that 5 million missing barrels, WTI would now be about $10/ barrel. Then Trump really would have a problem.


a simple check with the IEA monthly report shows this drivel to be complete nonsense.

Iran oil exports decreased from 2.6 MMb/d (2018 prior to sanctions) to 1.4 MMb/d (in May). That is a decline of 1.2 MMB/d

As to Venezuela sanctions were announced at the end of January 2019, since then output fell from 1.25 Mmb/d to 830 Kbpd. That is a decline of 1.08 MMB/d

The total decline since sanctions for both Iran and Venezuela is thus 2.28 or about half of the 5 MMb/d you claim.

But I'm sure you will come back and tell us all that the IEA has it wrong whereas your numbers are correct. :roll:

As to actually supply :

In April, OPEC crude output rose for the first time in four months as higher supply from Libya, Nigeria and Iraq more than made up for a significant loss in Iran. Production rose 60 kb/d m-o-m to 30.21 mb/d, but was down 1.21 mb/d on a year ago. Iranian supply looks set to tumble further in May as US waivers end (see Iran oil: waive goodbye). Saudi Arabia held output far below its supply target during April, unchanged from March but it has indicated willingness to supply more if buyers ask for it. Production could increase by 500 kb/d before Saudi Arabia reaches its supply target. Preliminary data show the kingdom’s exports rising in May.


Maintenance outages in Canada, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and improved compliance with agreed output cuts in Russia contributed to a decline in overall non-OPEC supply in April. While a rebound in US and Brazilian production and seasonally rising biofuels output provided a partial offset, total output dropped 360 kb/d m-o-m to 63.6 mb/d

So what do we have going on? Production from other Opec countries has more than replaced any losses from Iran and the decrease in production in non-Opec countries is a product of regular maintenance outage (we see this every year at this time) combined with Russia adhering to it's informally agreed output cuts in discussions with Saudi Arabia.

But Short seems to have no problem whatsoever making up his own scenario based on data he has created himself. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 11:11:51

5 mb/d over a one year period (1.83 Gb) is more than the entire present US crude inventory (presently 1.32 Gb) less SPR. Without that 5 million missing barrels, WTI would now be about $10/ barrel.


What more is there to say.

Over the last couple of months I have had several requests to post a page on various sites as to how chart215 below was compiled. Steve Angelo at https://srsroccoreport.com/ will be publishing that information. Keep an eye for it if you are also interested.

Image
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 11:35:53

What more is there to say.


well what you should be saying is....."boy am I ever stupid, it isn't 5 MMb/d but 2.28 MMb/d, I guess I should actually check what the real data says before I make a fool of myself"

But of course, given you continue to spew assorted nonsense even though you have been corrected time and time again it is apparent this sort of self-analysis is not in your wheelhouse. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 12:53:33

Over the last couple of months I have had several requests to post a page on various sites as to how chart215 below was compiled. Steve Angelo at https://srsroccoreport.com/ will be publishing that information. Keep an eye for it if you are also interested.


Wonderful opportunity for further excoriation. St. Angelo caught the ETP Bozo bug in November 2016 and is still ill with the bloviating, blathering, blowhard BS.

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-hills-gr ... l-deposit/

The St. Angelo/Hill combined noise to signal ratio must be approaching 2000 to 1.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 13:26:09

shortonoil wrote:Over the last couple of months I have had several requests to post a page on various sites as to how chart215 below was compiled. Steve Angelo at https://srsroccoreport.com/ will be publishing that information. Keep an eye for it if you are also interested.


Isn't Steve Angelo the same one who pimped your take on USGS estimates where you pretended they didn't have petroleum engineers? And then misunderstood basic reserve and resource issues to boot?

You sure you want to dip into that well of "please how else can I discredit myself" again?

Can you have Steve maybe explain your reasoning on why you welsh on bets?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 13:33:29

marmico wrote:
Between Venezuela, and Iran the US has already taken over 5 mb/d off line,


As per usual, the ETP Bozo failed grade 3 arithmetic.
(3813-2370) + (1911-741) = 2.6 mb/d


No one is surprised. Carnival barkers aren't required to know how to add, let alone think. All they do is...well..you know...

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 14:23:22

The Yuan is strengthening against the dollar (6.86). The FOREX market appears to be betting that Trump, and Xi will come to some type of arrangement. That could give the market a few additional months. It seems likely to happen as either of them are toast if they don't! The price of oil moved up to $57+ on this new rally. The MSM, which is the media arm of the MIC, are starting to back off on their invasion plans for Iran. Trump doesn't need a war with Iran, which is likely to turn out very embarrassing for the US. He just needs to shut off their oil production to keep the price up, and so far he has succeeded there. Europe has even terminated its SWIFT alternative that would allow Iran to sell oil there, and into the rest of Asia. The drop in oil supplies will have to continue into next year for this to keep working. Shutting off another 5 mb/d next year will not be as simple as the last. Either oil is shut in, or the price will go down, and most of the world's producers can not weather much of a decline.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 18:44:56

Please, Short. Trump's not smart enough to be that Machiavellian. You're just making things up out of thin air the way all good paranoid schizophrenics do.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 23 Jun 2019, 22:22:45

shortonoil wrote:The Yuan is strengthening against the dollar (6.86).


Like any moron who can use google can't find that information. But the information even that moron can't find out is why haven't you paid up on your losing bet yet?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 07:23:54

ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET


Can't pay you - (as we should have expected) you have been cheating! The EIA has been cooking its books.

viewtopic.php?p=1421512#p1421512
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9dMsQ2WsAA ... me=900x900

Well why not? Maybe they got some on the job training from the BLS. They do it every month!

Got to keep those prices up: The Saudis have to pay for their 28 million, live in, welfare recipients. The real market price of oil won't cover it.

Between Venezuela, and Iran the US has already taken over 5 mb/d off line, and still the price has not gone up. To protect its own producers, and its preferred suppliers the US will have to continue removing supplies by any means available to it.

The approaching end of the oil age will be indicative of a declining economy that can no longer utilize all the oil being produced. If those 5mb/d had not been removed inventories would now be more than doubled, and the price of oil would be about $10 a barrel. More production will have to be taken out in the coming year to support prices. Have you got any suggestions on where that will come from? Just because you bunch of laser brains are idiots doesn't mean everyone is.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 07:44:10

shortonoil wrote:
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET

Can't pay you


Do we again have to dredge up the terms of your bet? You don't owe me. You seem to be suffering from the same short-term memory problems PStarr was before his disappearance.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 09:55:36

shortonoil wrote:
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET


Can't pay you -


You can't divert some of the revenue from that faux report you pimp online to pay up on a bet?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 10:50:28

Between Venezuela, and Iran the US has already taken over 5 mb/d off line,


For the third time, perhaps you should check the actual data.....you are off by nearly double.
It's one thing to get it wrong once but to continue to post the same nonsense after having been corrected several times just makes you look the fool.

If you want any credibility here I suggest you actually get your numbers from accredited sources, and when your math is wrong (which it is almost all the time) then accept that and change your claims. Pretending that you were right all along in the face of evidence to the contrary is either a sign of poor mental health or just sheer stupidity.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 10:55:36

AdamB wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET


Can't pay you -


You can't divert some of the revenue from that faux report you pimp online to pay up on a bet?


Attention! Attention!

EIA obviously turned against shortonoil! They cooked the books so that he would lose the bet!

Anyway...can we move on and troll about something else to waste our time?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 10:58:49

rockdoc123 wrote:
Between Venezuela, and Iran the US has already taken over 5 mb/d off line,


For the third time, perhaps you should check the actual data.....you are off by nearly double.
It's one thing to get it wrong once but to continue to post the same nonsense after having been corrected several times just makes you look the fool.

If you want any credibility here I suggest you actually get your numbers from accredited sources, and when your math is wrong (which it is almost all the time) then accept that and change your claims. Pretending that you were right all along in the face of evidence to the contrary is either a sign of poor mental health or just sheer stupidity.


Rockhead is trying to do math again?

Yes...I'm just trolling...

:)
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