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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 15:13:43

Armageddon wrote:The economy crashed in 2008.


A recession is not a crash.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 15:17:43

shortonoil wrote:The whole scenario looks like an episode from the Twilight Zone.


Yes, we understand that you would prefer to talk about tv shows rather than how poorly you understand markets, the role of thermodynamics in the market price of oil let alone its production rate or resources that rate is dependent upon, but no one cares anymore.

On to an important topic, have you paid off on the bet you welshed on yet?
Last edited by Tanada on Sat 22 Jun 2019, 11:23:59, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 16:02:33

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The economy crashed in 2008.


A recession is not a crash.


Bullshit. It was a crash for millions, and many major corporations and banks would have gone under if it hadn't been for $trillions in QE and bailouts. You guys like to pretend that didn't happen so you can make fun of those who saw it for what it was: "The greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression". Many economists agree it would have been another depression if the government/Fed didn't have the ability to conjure those $trillions in funny money out of thin air. Over 7 million Americans lost their freakin homes. Maybe you should ask them, eh? Maybe you are too high-and-mighty to do that.
The primary reason I'm sure it will happen again is that the arrogance and greed (as so many of you display) is still in full force, from the President down. People think their wealth makes them special somehow.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 16:08:39

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The economy crashed in 2008.


A recession is not a crash.




It was much worse than a recession. They had to invent things never seen before to stop that crash (QE 1,2,3, ZIRP for a decade, bailouts, buyouts, cash for clunkers etc). MUCH, MUCH worse than an ordinary recession. And this one is will be MUCH MUCH worse than 2008. We have doubled our debt since 2008.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 16:19:35

Is the ETP Bozo Side Car Clown aka Armaggedon as boring as I think he is?

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 16:45:54

The contraction is here folks!

Philly Fed confirmed the horrible numbers from NY Empire.

Philly Fed at 0.3 is in line with ISM Manufacturing below 50!!


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 19:31:07

the role of thermodynamics in the market price


Explaining thermodynamics to you would be like training a squid how to sky dive. It is, and always will be completely out of your frame of reference. You don't even know how to calculate the $ value of a BTU, and the role of thermodynamics in the market place is an oxymoron, just like you.

You have been listening to NPR for too long; news from that other planet.

Philly Fed confirmed the horrible numbers from NY Empire.

Philly Fed at 0.3 is in line with ISM Manufacturing below 50!!


The world recession is now hitting the US economy everywhere. Trump either makes a deal with Xi, or the stock market will never make it to the election, and they both know it! The Newspeak coming up this week is going to be a classic.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 20:07:39

Bullshit. It was a crash for millions, and many major corporations and banks would have gone under if it hadn't been for $trillions in QE and bailouts. You guys like to pretend that didn't happen so you can make fun of those who saw it for what it was: "The greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression".


Point of fact is the government did have the means to intervene and they did so so during "the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression" , the Dow went from ~13,000 to ~7500 between Oct 2007 and Jan 2009 but was back to early 2007 levels by January of 2011 and by mid 2015 was at 18,000 and in the first quarter of 2019 was above 24,000. So a two year recession of ~40% followed by a sustained recovery of 220%. Arguably this was overall the least damaging of any previous recession and led the market to new all time highs. And your argument now is "well they no longer have that ability to move the economy" to which I say BS...watch them. Let's see what instruments they have and more importantly what instruments they will actually need once Trump works a deal with China or gets a trade agreement with Europe.

I'm an old fart and have been in the business world through numerous recessions. They are largely driven more by fear and perception than they are by fundamentals. So posting about this industry or that industry having less turnover in the second quarter says more about the fact they are entrenching due to worries about the economy rather than the fact they are struggling. Companies don't go from blowing all their targets out of the park in the first quarter to suddenly being bankrupt in the second quarter....doesn't happen in the real world but I suppose in the Bizarro World that you guys inhabit maybe it does. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Fri 21 Jun 2019, 21:11:32

rockdoc123 wrote:
Bullshit. It was a crash for millions, and many major corporations and banks would have gone under if it hadn't been for $trillions in QE and bailouts. You guys like to pretend that didn't happen so you can make fun of those who saw it for what it was: "The greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression".


Point of fact is the government did have the means to intervene and they did so so during "the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression" , the Dow went from ~13,000 to ~7500 between Oct 2007 and Jan 2009 but was back to early 2007 levels by January of 2011 and by mid 2015 was at 18,000 and in the first quarter of 2019 was above 24,000. So a two year recession of ~40% followed by a sustained recovery of 220%. Arguably this was overall the least damaging of any previous recession and led the market to new all time highs. And your argument now is "well they no longer have that ability to move the economy" to which I say BS...watch them.


I didn't argue that. Of course they'll continue to extend and pretend as long as they can. They don't have any choice. But if you think that can continue indefinitely, please explain.

Let's see what instruments they have and more importantly what instruments they will actually need once Trump works a deal with China or gets a trade agreement with Europe.

I'm an old fart and have been in the business world through numerous recessions. They are largely driven more by fear and perception than they are by fundamentals.


So you posit that perception doesn't work both ways? Silly you. Irrational exuberance is the flip side of the fear coin, and bad news never sells as well as good.

So posting about this industry or that industry having less turnover in the second quarter says more about the fact they are entrenching due to worries about the economy rather than the fact they are struggling. Companies don't go from blowing all their targets out of the park in the first quarter to suddenly being bankrupt in the second quarter....doesn't happen in the real world but I suppose in the Bizarro World that you guys inhabit maybe it does. :roll:


I haven't posted about those things, and the little world I inhabit is quite sane. It knows when things are being forced out of balance for short-term returns, political expediency, and status quo maintenance. It also doesn't fear a future that doesn't fit whatever narrative I prefer. But go ahead and lump everyone you disagree with into one convenient world view. It says alot.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 08:45:08

Point of fact is the government did have the means to intervene and they did so so during "the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression"


Their "intervention", as you label it, meant that the world's central banks had to inject $26 trillion in new, out of thin air currency. It resulted in asset prices going to the stratosphere, and ROI going to zero. Over $13 trillion in sovereign debt is now paying out negative yields, and the US Ten Year is below 2%. World debt has increased by over $100 trillion since their "intervention" took place. Future investments into real fixed assets that produce something that can actually be used are not going to amount to much when the investors can't find real investments that can generate a real return.

The US has had to destroy the economies of two nations to keep the price of oil elevated enough to keep its own petroleum industry from collapsing. Venezuela and Iran have had over 5 mb/d shut-in to facilitate the great "intervention". Because depletion never sleeps the US will have to find its next victim to eviscerate to support the price of oil, and that is likely to march us all off to WWIII.

The intervention has amounted to a determination to commit suicide on a civilizational level. We all got selected to join in, and none of us got a vote on it!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 09:15:24

The US has had to destroy the economies of two nations to keep the price of oil elevated enough to keep its own petroleum industry from collapsing. Venezuela and Iran have had over 5 mb/d shut-in to facilitate the great "intervention". Because depletion never sleeps the US will have to find its next victim to eviscerate to support the price of oil, and that is likely to march us all off to WWIII.


God you are a moron. Venezuela's economy was in tatters well before any US sanctions were put in place. It has been that way for almost a decade now.
As to Iran, the initial sanctions were waived for almost every country that Iran traded to, only recently have those waivers been removed. If you think that Iran still isn't trading oil to select customers then I think you need some lessons in International politics and business.
When oil went from under $30 to upwards of $70 in the period form 2017 - 2018 did it have anything whatsoever to do with oil sanctions anywhere? NO it didn't, it was a product of US companies having cut back on production due to low price with demand trucking ahead like it always has, steadily increasing such that demand outpaced supply and hence price increases. And what we are seeing now is the same scenario reasserting itself. Increased production from US unconvenitonals has caused supply to outpace demand and hence lower prices. Any potential war premiums for oil are short lived (as they always have been), especially when Saudi Arabia still has 2-3 MMB/d of spare capacity.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 09:38:01

rockdoc123 wrote:
The US has had to destroy the economies of two nations to keep the price of oil elevated enough to keep its own petroleum industry from collapsing. Venezuela and Iran have had over 5 mb/d shut-in to facilitate the great "intervention". Because depletion never sleeps the US will have to find its next victim to eviscerate to support the price of oil, and that is likely to march us all off to WWIII.


God you are a moron. Venezuela's economy was in tatters well before any US sanctions were put in place. It has been that way for almost a decade now.
As to Iran, the initial sanctions were waived for almost every country that Iran traded to, only recently have those waivers been removed. If you think that Iran still isn't trading oil to select customers then I think you need some lessons in International politics and business.
When oil went from under $30 to upwards of $70 in the period form 2017 - 2018 did it have anything whatsoever to do with oil sanctions anywhere? NO it didn't, it was a product of US companies having cut back on production due to low price with demand trucking ahead like it always has, steadily increasing such that demand outpaced supply and hence price increases. And what we are seeing now is the same scenario reasserting itself. Increased production from US unconvenitonals has caused supply to outpace demand and hence lower prices. Any potential war premiums for oil are short lived (as they always have been), especially when Saudi Arabia still has 2-3 MMB/d of spare capacity.


Totally skips the part about massive central bank intervention,,, all that. There seems to be some sort of mental block going on with these guys. They seem fine (even applaud) this level of intervention when things are crashing, but cry like babies when any intervention or regulation occurs to prevent or limit these meltdowns in the first place.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 10:42:34

They seem fine (even applaud) this level of intervention when things are crashing, but cry like babies when any intervention or regulation occurs to prevent or limit these meltdowns in the first place.


That's funny, I don't remember ever complaining about central bank intervention.....they have a job to do and they use the tools at their disposal. If you think they have run out of tools I believe you are sorely mistaken. Bernake has stated all of the following can be deployed with potential for significant impact: move short term interest rate to zero, future guidance on the path of short term rates, more Fed purchase of securities, negative short term rates, targeting of longer term interest rates. The same people crying that the FED won't be able to "save them" are the same people who were claiming the FED couldn't do anything back in 2008. The same people, by the way, who can't read a simple financial balance sheet. :roll:

As to the continual wringing hands over debt why do you think the FED isn't too worried? It is because the only time debt becomes a problem is when the economy can no longer afford the interest paid on that debt. The US is nowhere near that point currently. Currently the payment of debt consumes 10% of the US Federal Budget, although higher than what one would ideally target (6% would be better) it's a long way from being unmanageable.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 11:37:56

rockdoc123 wrote:
They seem fine (even applaud) this level of intervention when things are crashing, but cry like babies when any intervention or regulation occurs to prevent or limit these meltdowns in the first place.


That's funny, I don't remember ever complaining about central bank intervention.....they have a job to do and they use the tools at their disposal. If you think they have run out of tools I believe you are sorely mistaken. Bernake has stated all of the following can be deployed with potential for significant impact: move short term interest rate to zero, future guidance on the path of short term rates, more Fed purchase of securities, negative short term rates, targeting of longer term interest rates. The same people crying that the FED won't be able to "save them" are the same people who were claiming the FED couldn't do anything back in 2008. The same people, by the way, who can't read a simple financial balance sheet. :roll:

As to the continual wringing hands over debt why do you think the FED isn't too worried? It is because the only time debt becomes a problem is when the economy can no longer afford the interest paid on that debt. The US is nowhere near that point currently. Currently the payment of debt consumes 10% of the US Federal Budget, although higher than what one would ideally target (6% would be better) it's a long way from being unmanageable.


Wow. See the part about "mental block". I was talking about measures designed to keep from having to rely on extraordinary measures when things go south. That clearly doesn't enter into your thinking, as your response shows. I suppose it's because you assume that someone else will pay the consequences: millions of lost jobs, lost homes, small businesses failing...... You gloss over that sort of thing like a true sociopath. A lot of people still haven't recovered from the 2008 mess. Maybe they weren't greedy enough, eh? I know a couple of folks who retired from GM, worked for decades so you could sell all that oil for the cars they built. Lost most of their retirement even as GM got bailed out. They don't even exist as far as you are concerned.
As for the debt. the ONLY interest I pay on debt is government debt. You seem to think I should be OK with that.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 11:51:55

God you are a moron. Venezuela's economy was in tatters well before any US sanctions were put in place.


Funny, if you're not Venezuela or Iran. The 5 mb/d reduction in supply is equivalent to more than annually doubling the US crude inventory. At that inventory level oil would now be $10 a barrel. US producers would be selling out to the Chinese. Venezuela was easy pickings; all they had to do was cut off their diluent supply. Iran is a little more problematic. The Persians had a little more economy than just oil, and a more cohesive culture. A small, but efficient military that they inherited as a result of the US backed Iraq/ Iran war, and the country isn't being run by an oil illiterate ex taxi cab driver. Of course oil prices have to be kept up. The Saudis have to pay for their 28 million, live in, welfare recipients. The real market value oil price wouldn't cover it.

Of course they will have to find more places to cut production next year. Depletion is not going to take a vacation just because the US is going to have an election. Oil no longer can power enough economic growth to provide for its own demand. Syria has already lost a good share of its production capacity, so it looks like Nigeria is the most likely candidate for a government reform. Can hardly wait for Bolton's statement that world Voodoo has to be stomped out. Then again maybe they will just replay their old standby, the terrorists card, even though they just used it on the 5000 year old culture of Iran.

Navigating the end of the oil age is going to be good for the munitions industry. Blowing up mud huts in the middle of nowhere can take a lot of fire power. That is where the billion dollar F-35 is really going to be needed! The Company will need a raise. When it is all said and done, the Russians did it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 12:01:26

I suppose it's because you assume that someone else will pay the consequences: millions of lost jobs, lost homes, small businesses failing...... You gloss over that sort of thing like a true sociopath. A lot of people still haven't recovered from the 2008 mess. Maybe they weren't greedy enough, eh? I know a couple of folks who retired from GM, worked for decades so you could sell all that oil for the cars they built. Lost most of their retirement even as GM got bailed out. They don't even exist as far as you are concerned.


Give it a rest. Your holier than thou speech is lost on those of us who have worked through numerous downturns, lost volumes of money ourselves, had to layoff people who were our friends. Was the government or FED responsible for that? No they were not. Could it have been prevented, perhaps through additional regulations of banks with mortgages or limiting derivatives trade but that would have been an intervention in the market which apparently you don't like. As to greed....how about all those people who took out several mortgages that could not afford them in order to try and flip homes into a booming real estate market? If they had been happy with living within their means the real estate bubble would never have happened.

And there are a lot of normal citizens who have done incredibly well since 2008. The stock market allowed them to more than double their investment value, more are employed than ever before. It's easy to cherry pick some who were hurt and others who did well, that is the nature of life I'm afraid. If you think there is some way to have everyone come out on top then you are apparently one of the idiots here who has swallowed the Socialist agenda fantasy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 12:44:41

Give it a rest. Your holier than thou speech is lost on those of us who have worked through numerous downturns, lost volumes of money ourselves, had to layoff people who were our friends. Was the government or FED responsible for that? No they were not. Could it have been prevented, perhaps through additional regulations of banks with mortgages or limiting derivatives trade but that would have been an intervention in the market which apparently you don't like.


Again, you read into others' comments what wasn't there. To clarify, I prefer upfront checks and balances over bailouts after the fact. You also assume I haven't lived through numerous downturns. Silly you, again. My wife and I both lost our jobs in 2008. Frugal living and saving/planning for a downturn kept us afloat. We didn't take ANY help during this period (though I did get a free fishing license because the State was offering that).

You say I don't like regulations, then go on to call me a socialist? Color yourself confused. As for being "holier than thou"? Is that what you stoop to when someone disagrees with you? That's a pretty unholy position, so I'll accept that. I believe in fairness, not tax cuts primarily for the wealthy, especially when the Dow has had it's best month in decades while so many hard working Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. I suppose you think they should have doubled their investments. You need to get out more. It's about shared prosperity vs dog-eat-dog. What's better for the overall good of the country and economy?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 13:01:41

I believe in fairness, not tax cuts primarily for the wealthy, especially when the Dow has had it's best month in decades while so many hard working Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. I suppose you think they should have doubled their investments. You need to get out more. It's about shared prosperity vs dog-eat-dog. What's better for the overall good of the country and economy?


who invests in new businesses? The so-called "wealthy" who actually own said businesses and build new ones all the time or the Americans who you claim live paycheck to paycheck? Make it easier for the "wealthy" to invest and that will generate more jobs. It will also attract new businesses to the US. Who has money in the investment banks that turns itself into private equity investments that in turn allow for new startups in all forms of industry....the people living "paycheck to paycheck" or the wealthy?

If you don't think a socialist view is to tax the wealthy so you can give it to the poor or to believe in the concept of "shared prosperity" then I think you missed that day in school. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 13:08:05

GHung wrote:A lot of people still haven't recovered from the 2008 mess.


Who shouldered the burden of the credit crisis is a very old topic. There's nothing to be said about it now that wasn't said 10 years ago.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 22 Jun 2019, 16:20:01

Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The economy crashed in 2008.


A recession is not a crash.




It was much worse than a recession. They had to invent things never seen before to stop that crash (QE 1,2,3, ZIRP for a decade, bailouts, buyouts, cash for clunkers etc). MUCH, MUCH worse than an ordinary recession. And this one is will be MUCH MUCH worse than 2008. We have doubled our debt since 2008.

Buckle up son

It was worse than the typical recession. But it did NOT crash the economy, on any objective standard, although it was scary for awhile during the event.

You've been incorrectly predicting the economy will "crash" since at least 2011, and yet you never get it right. There are no signs there is something worse brewing than the huge real estate problem which occurred in 2008, and yet you proclaim this time it will be worse.

Too bad for the fast crash doomers who constantly are wrong: data matters, and so does credibility.

We may well have a recession. Again, so what?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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