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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 13:57:19

What "context" would that be? The context that provides you with a bit of comforting confirmation bias?


You must know that he is right; he's using the FORCE; with a little help from a worn out Ouija Board, the eye of a newt, and a sprinkle of dried chicken bones. He is also paid by the word; any word!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 14:56:54

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The reason they don’t care about debt is because a currency reset is coming. China and Russia are already gearing up for it with the amount of gold they’re hoarding. Trump has to finish working out and balancing the trade deficits before the US can be on board.

You do know that the "currency reset" and hyperinflation memes have been very active since the early 80's, since the last time we had worrisome inflation, right?

You do know that the ass-clowns predicting doom due to "too much debt", while ignoring overall context have been doing so all during that time, right?

And as rockdoc mentioned upthread, you've been wrong on braying your calls for economic doom on this site for a good eight years, right?

So do all these meaningless predictions and an abysmal track record make you feel important, or what?

In case you haven't noticed, the vast majority of folks here aren't buying your spew, aside from agreeing there might be a recession.

...

Big hint: The actual issue, causing most of the concerning data and the short term market volatility is over TRADE worries. Real world professional economists (i.e. not you or short) realize this.

I see we're back to approaching all time market highs in the US today, even with all the concerning figures. But I know, you just keep changing the timeframe of your calls and pretending you have a clue what you're talking about. Just like shorty.




I was spot on with the 2008 crises.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 17:04:58

I was spot on with the 2008 crises.


You have never said anything good about the economy, ever. In 2005 you stated:
I think we are in trouble in 2006 either way
(which of course we weren't)
In 2006 you said:
The more i have reading and studying about the economy, its on the brink. This huge debt is unsistainable for the american economy. collapse is immenant. When it starts, nothing will stop it. not even the plunge protection team.
(now if "immenant"(sp) means somehow in two years time then OK, but that kind of takes away from your current "immenant" message doesn't it?).
And then in 2006 you said:
2007 is looking more and more like the year it all starts happening. I dont think life as we know it will be the same in a few years from now. 
(again pushing the timeline out).
So broken clock syndrome in it's finest.

But there are other predictions you made back then:

In 2009 you said:
With the looming depression, I don't see oil rebounding , ever. I just don't see demand ever ramping back up after the greatest depression the world has ever seen.

and
When the real depression sets in, demand is going to plummet.


But demand continued to rise right through high oil prices in 2011 – 2014, through lower oil prices 2014 – 2016 and through higher oil prices 2017 to present.

In early 2010 you said:
The entire financial system is about to crash.


Yet the S&P 500 continued to rise and more than doubled to it's present point, no financial system crash either.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 17:12:37

The economy crashed in 2008. They printed trillions to stop it. The trillions have wore off. We are crashing again. What is so hard to comprehend about this?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 19:27:42

Armageddon wrote:I was spot on with the 2008 crises.


And now we come to the real motivation for Armageddon commandeering the thread. You're well on your way to taking PStarr's place as the resident egomaniac of peakoil.com.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 20:14:59

asg70 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I was spot on with the 2008 crises.


And now we come to the real motivation for Armageddon commandeering the thread. You're well on your way to taking PStarr's place as the resident egomaniac of peakoil.com.

Image




Denial is a bitch, huh?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 22:58:25

Armageddon wrote:Denial is a bitch, huh?


A little early to hang the mission-accomplished banner, chief.

BTW, nuance is completely missing from the economic tea-leaves here, which is what happens when you eat a steady diet of zerohedge horse-crap each day and little else. Here's some reasonable analysis from the MSM:

Global Economic Growth Is Already Slowing. The U.S. Trade War Is Making It Worse.

If the economy tips into recession it will be Trump's foolish trade war that does it. Nothing to do with peak oil--that's for sure, and it's idiotic to reduce everything down to "The economy crashed in 2008. They printed trillions to stop it. The trillions have wore[sic] off. We are crashing again." The world is a complex system.

If you want to walk around with nothing more than a slogan like the above in your head, by all means, but you don't contribute anything on this forum by copy-pasting zerohedge links (or just headlines with no links) and repeating that pabulum ad infinitum. It's NPC behavior.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 06:06:56

but you don't contribute anything on this forum by copy-pasting zerohedge links


OK. So here is a contribution.

1. US per capita energy consumption in 2018 was the same as it was in 1968, 50 years ago.

2. US per capita petroleum consumption in 2018 was 30% less than it was in 1968.

3. US energy spending relative to GDP was 8% in 1968 and 6% in 2018.

4. US per capita GDP has increased 125% from 1968 to 2018.

Conclusion: US energy intensity (productivity) has been declining (rising) for two generations.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 08:15:26

Which means we are using energy more efficiently than we were in 1968. I fail to see how this is a bad thing.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 09:02:47

Conclusion: Energy efficiency is continuously improving, and productivity/automation has overcome the relative expense of raw materials to improve quality of life for humans everywhere. Nothing but good news there.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 09:30:28

KaiserJeep wrote:Conclusion: Energy efficiency is continuously improving, and productivity/automation has overcome the relative expense of raw materials to improve quality of life for humans everywhere. Nothing but good news there.


Conclusion: We can cherry-pick data to pretend that global consumption and waste streams haven't increased dramatically over the past decades. I feel so much better now!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 10:11:06

Meanwhile In China, Echoes Of Lehman As Interbank Market Freezes

As the global economy continues to contract from energy starvation, the Chinese banking system is showing signs of freezing up. As China's NPL situation worsens Chinese companies are finding it ever more difficult to obtain financing. The same event is now reaching into Europe, and will eventually arrive in North America. The ECB is returning to rate cuts, and QE to compensate. The FED is cutting rates soon, and will also restart QE at some point in the foreseeable future.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... et-freezes

The large US banks are the most exposed to a banking crisis due to their position as the primary counter party to the world's $1000 trillion in derivatives. Many smaller US banks have avoided adopting such insane financial mechanisms, but will be affected when the entire system freezes up. Many of them will fail when the maelstrom hits.

Keeping your funds spread out amount multiple small regional banks with good balance sheets, keeping a cash reserve (as in $20, $50, $100 bills), and investing in PMs is probably the best insurance policy that one can now buy. Digital currencies, as in credit cards, are likely to become completely useless when the system fails

Petroleum's declining energy delivery assures that the world's economy will continue to decline, and the present debt based fiat monetary system will not be spared. Apply a little common sense in the present can reduce the unbearable pain that will be coming in the near future.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 10:37:15

Another day another Zerohedge link.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 13:19:36

asg70 wrote:Another day another Zerohedge link.

And as always, it, and the prognostications of shorty, are all wrong, re short term financial calamity.

FED didn't cut rates today. It didn't NEED to. The FED indicated a balanced wait and see approach, NOT indicating it has plans to lower rates in 2019. So much for zero interest rates real soon now.

So despite trade pressures and concerns, overall the economy is doing fine. A FAR cry from the always-predicting-rapid-doom clowns here and at zerohedge, etc.

Both shorty and Armageddon have been wrong for quite a few years.

And what of the markets? The stock market moved up a bit. The dollar moved down about a quarter point (via the DXY). So now, surely, we can hear from the doomsters how the dollar is "collapsing" in response. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 21:38:03

If 2nd quarter gdp beats expectations then the Fed has no reason to cut rates.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 08:35:38

Powell Throws In The Towel

Wall Street is partying like it was 1999. The last Ho-ray before the final collapse. If anyone believes that this will last a month they have rocks in their head. In the meantime most of the Western world is facing the uncomfortable recognition that it is about to experience an ecological collapse. Anyone on the East Coast of the US, who is still awake, will realize that the insect population has just about vanished. In my area there are no mosquito, no gnats, no ticks, and almost no spiders this year. My dog for the first time in his life doesn't even have fleas. Flea shampoo sales are going to plummet. Wall Street won't notice until their cocaine supply runs out.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 08:40:47

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 08:45:11

Stock market up sharply at open. So when is this supposed stock market crash supposed to start? Bueller?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 09:01:16

shortonoil wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-20/powell-throws-towel-gold-global-stocks-soar-sp-all-time-high-yields-tumble


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 12:57:18

If there were any mosquitoes around here some one would have noticed. They are almost as annoying, and repulsive as you are! I have only checked for about a 30 mile radius so far. I'll be checking various contacts up and down the East coast this week. Around this area on the East side of the Chesapeake Bay most of the insects are gone. Daddy Long Legs that numbered in the millions on this property have completely vanished. ZH is likely to be the least of your concerns.


US Steel Plants Are Going Idle, But The Fed Perpetuates The Myth That Everything Is Just Fine

-Our ongoing “retail apocalypse” is absolutely brutalizing the retail industry, and we are on pace to have the worst year for store closings in our entire history.
-Auto industry sales have been absolutely abysmal, and auto loan delinquencies have shot up to alarmingly high levels.
-The agriculture industry is going to have the worst year it has seen in at least several decades.
-Our 800 billion dollar trucking industry is already in the midst of a “bloodbath”.
-The real estate industry is poised for the worst downturn that we have seen since the subprime mortgage meltdown during the last financial crisis.
-The manufacturing industry has not seen numbers this bad since the last recession, and things are rapidly getting worse.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... -just-fine
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