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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 13 Jun 2019, 16:39:46

@Armageddon

It appears that your prediction of a rate cut is going to show up right on schedule. Good call.

That, however, doesn't mean that one can just stick their head in the sand and pray that the US economy is doing well. It isn't. In fact, as Edwards notes, "the rumblings of the US bond market have now turned into an ear-piercing scream that a recession is close and the Fed needs to start cutting rates quickly" (even if, in an ironic twist, the futures market is already pricing in the next rate hike cycle after the fed cuts rates 3-4 times between now and the end of 2020).

Worse, a recession may not only be close, it may in fact be in the readview mirror; This is notable because with the US economy on the edge of the longest expansion on record - recall that in July, this will become the longest U.S. economic expansion on record at 121 months. (charted below is the length of past expansions 1854-today)...

... Edwards quotes fellow market skecptic, David Rosenberg, who has reviewed the NBER website for the criteria they use for dating the start of a recession and he thinks that the recession likely started in Q1....

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... ment-bonds

That also agrees with this graph, but this graph also shows a long term year over year decline with no bottom in sight. With the other particulars of the economy being $247 trillion in debt, 70% of the IG bond market being rated BBB, and a number of pandemics, and weather events brewing, it is hard to see how this could land without crashing.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 13 Jun 2019, 17:17:20

BREAKING: Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record. Economic FREE FALL.. then they bring you to war.


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 03:58:44

shortonoil wrote:Apparently they can't read graphs either.


What seems to be happening is that short and rock are both choosing different graphs from the World Bank, and according to the matrix of the graph of their choice BOTH are right :-D :) 8O .

Thus for Rock to say that Short is an idiot, or visa versa, each needs to be honest in comparing like for like, and if one thinks the matrix the other choses (current $ vs 2010 $) is wrong they should explain why their choice is best.

Link to Short's graph: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
Link to Rock's graph: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 07:12:58

if one thinks the matrix the other choses (current $ vs 2010 $) is wrong they should explain why their choice is best.


Only an economic illiterate (moron) needs to explain why current $ is best.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 07:19:03

What seems to be happening is that short and rock are both choosing different graphs from the World Bank, and according to the matrix of the graph of their choice BOTH are right


If one where to use 2009 adjusted $ they would again get a different value; same with 2008, 2007, and all the way back to when Caesar was crossing the Rubicon. Expressing GDP in any thing other than nominal $ (present) is absurd. Goes with the territory around here.

BREAKING: Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record. Economic FREE FALL.. then they bring you to war.


War at this point would be the worst possible decision that could be made. Expending our last meager, vital resources on a bloody, senseless, useless war would be insane. That insures that will be exactly what they do! The inmates are now running the asylum.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 07:26:38

shortonoil wrote:War at this point would be the worst possible decision that could be made. Expending our last meager, vital resources on a bloody, senseless, useless war would be insane. That insures that will be exactly what they do! The inmates are now running the asylum.


Ah, they, they THEY. The most favorite word of doomers. If there's anything that bores me to tears it's the above cynical fearmongering rhetoric from doomers. Same tune, different day.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Revi » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 08:21:27

shortonoil wrote:War at this point would be the worst possible decision that could be made. Expending our last meager, vital resources on a bloody, senseless, useless war would be insane. That insures that will be exactly what they do! The inmates are now running the asylum.


I agree completely. Which doesn't mean I don't think it will happen...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 08:39:54

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 11:29:16

Thus for Rock to say that Short is an idiot, or visa versa, each needs to be honest in comparing like for like, and if one thinks the matrix the other choses (current $ vs 2010 $) is wrong they should explain why their choice is best.


wrong.....any economist worth his salt knows that you cannot use current dollars (ie. uninflated) to compare GDP year on year specifically because GDP is based on prices that change year to year as a consequence of inflation. You don't have to be very savy to understand that.

But if you don't belive me perhaps Investopedia:

Since nominal GDP is calculated using prices in that year and does not account for inflation, it can make comparisons from one year to another less useful. BecauseGDP is measured in the monetary value of goods and services produced, it is subject to change if prices change.


Or better yet lets go to the source (World Bank) that this data is all coming from:

Current series are influenced by the effect of price inflation. Constant series are used to measure the true growth of a series, i.e. adjusting for the effects of price inflation. For example (using year one as the base year), suppose nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises from 100 billion to 110 billion, and inflation is about 4%. In real prices, the second year GDP would be approximately 106 billion, reflecting its true growth of 6%.


So the source where Short is getting his data from is even saying you need to use Constant dollars that take into account inflation and yet he has the termerity to make this statment:

Expressing GDP in any thing other than nominal $ (present) is absurd. Goes with the territory around here.


so apparently the World Bank (where Short gets his current dollars GDP numbers) is "absurd". :roll:
I think he has sealed up the "moron of the year" award! At the very least he has demonstrated he hasn't a frigging clue about economics or finance.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 11:32:18

I agree completely. Which doesn't mean I don't think it will happen...


Trump ran on a pacific platform; get the US out of Syria, no more Middle East wars, and etc. Guess this is what can be expected from crossing a reality TV show star, a real estate tycoon, and politicians. They promise to fix what can't be fixed, and then blame on each other when it isn't. It then appears as a soap opera on Twitter.

This week flying Iranian torpedoes; next week Ivanka, and Barbie Doll settle the trade war.

All of this for a mere $1.5 trillion a month!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 12:16:55

Carnival Barker Coffeeguise was right:

The Natural Gas Age is Here

I put all my money into CNX Resources a year ago (price: $17). Todays its $7.0 and still dropping like a rock. Thanks Coffeeguise.

Did anyone notice that BMW stock is dropping like a rock too? Gone from 85 Euroes to 62 today in 1 year.

XOM dropping like a rock in the past 5 years. $105--> $74

EOG dropping like a rock: $107--> $85 in 1 year.

And Gold is soaring!

Don't worry, everything is fine, never better!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 12:23:24

Shale/Windmills/Solar = Worthless Paper

Oil Decline rate will jump from 7% to 14% by 2025.

Scamerica is an Inverse Empire. It loots the interior with a completely useless military junk and makes the exterior fabulously rich. Its as if the Roman Army just sat around and smoked dope all time doing nothing.

The Entire Joke Economy in Scamerica is nothing but Massive Looting of the Treasury

But don't worry, Scamerica still has useless fraudulent physics. They may as well just stuff Nobel prizes in physics in cereal boxes.

Fake Money works, just look at Deutsche Toilet Paper Bank who is way ahead on the curve. Its rallying with all that fake money...hahaha.

You're all a bunch of brainless pseudointellectuals. C'mon BW, don't be coy, everyone knows you're a Fusion Crank.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 13:47:22

A Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse




https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/13/a-m ... -ever.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 14:27:20

Well its Friday. How is the stock market crash going? Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't the market indices supposed to go down during a crash?

DJIA chart

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp ... uiNlkWxP2U

Hmm Jan 3rd, 2019 Dow 22686
Today 26144
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 14:38:27

shortonoil wrote:"idiots can count or cipher", was a well known phrase.

Apparently they can't read graphs either.


Or pay off losing bets.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 14:40:54

onlooker wrote:A Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse




https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/13/a-m ... -ever.html


An indicator suffered a collapse!!!

Is anyone other than Short stupid enough to confuse an actual stock market crash with an indicator crash? No different than those who confused the nominal price of oil skyrocketing in June of 2008 with a peak oil collapse I suppose...so yeah, I guess Short might not be the only one who would fall for this kind of nonsense.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 15:12:31

We could save a lot of confusion if we change the title of the thread to ‘economic crash’.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 15:58:52

We could save a lot of confusion if we change the title of the thread to ‘economic crash’.


Redundant?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 16:12:27

A Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse





https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/13/a-m ... -ever.html

The Market is precariously balanced waiting for the FOMC meeting next week, and the Trump and Xi's fist fight at the G20. Later on in the week, when it becomes apparent that all this stuff doesn't make one damn bit of difference, the bottom will fall out.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 19:00:08

New Survey: 69% Of U.S. CFOs Predict Economic Collapse & Stock Market Crash By The End Of 2020


They are usually very optimistic
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