Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Tue 11 Jun 2019, 08:27:00

Lehmann Brothers wasn't the only bank that was crammed full of toxic mortgages and the whole CDS and CDO derivatives mess. All of them were worldwide. Since then, at least from the US banking perspective, our banks are a lot better capitalized and there has been a significant reduction in risky assets. Deutsch Bank going under won't have the same worldwide effect that doomers think it will.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12441
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Revi » Tue 11 Jun 2019, 11:06:24

Cog wrote:Lehmann Brothers wasn't the only bank that was crammed full of toxic mortgages and the whole CDS and CDO derivatives mess. All of them were worldwide. Since then, at least from the US banking perspective, our banks are a lot better capitalized and there has been a significant reduction in risky assets. Deutsch Bank going under won't have the same worldwide effect that doomers think it will.


I hope not. It may not be the canary in the coal mine. I don't think the stock market is a good place to place a lot of faith in any more. It's been going up for so long, that it may have no place to go but down...
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7180
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 11:17:24

US CEO confidence index now at #recession levels...


Q3 and Q4 will be negative GDP
QE4 is coming this Fall
Rate cuts are coming by the end of Q3
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4878
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 12:01:24

Q3 and Q4 will be negative GDP


late last year you were predicting Q1 to be negative, then you were predicting Q2 to be negative. If you keep moving the goal posts it is pretty easy to claim the "broken clock" award! :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6815
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 12:44:46

China Auto Sales Just Posted Their Worst Month Ever


#globalcollapse
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4878
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 12:46:46

rockdoc123 wrote:
Q3 and Q4 will be negative GDP


late last year you were predicting Q1 to be negative, then you were predicting Q2 to be negative. If you keep moving the goal posts it is pretty easy to claim the "broken clock" award! :roll:



Q2 will be pretty flat
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4878
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 13:48:24

The S&P 500 is exactly at the same point now that it was in January 2018. It has basically just moved sideways... which is a good thing...since a collapse is not going to be something to celebrate.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1481
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 15:10:58

US Government Spending Soars To All Time High As Deficit Hits Record For Month Of May


All this govt spending, record consumer debt, record corporate debt and Q2 GDP estimates are coming in at 1% or near flat?


You can’t make this stuff up.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4878
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 15:46:51

The S&P 500 is exactly at the same point now that it was in January 2018. It has basically just moved sideways... which is a good thing...since a collapse is not going to be something to celebrate.


That is not actually true. On January 26, 2018 S&P was at 2872, it corrected and then rose to 2929 by Sep 21, 2018, corrected and then rose to 2945 on May 3, 2019 and now it is in another correction. And given that the S&P on Jan 26, 2018 was 900 points higher than it was on the same day in 2016 (45% rise in 2years or ~23% per year), I'm not sure what the panic is based on this particular index.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6815
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 16:19:55

Any twitch to the negative, even for an hour, is a sign of impending apocalypse to the doomer.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12441
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 16:23:39

Q2 will be pretty flat


World GDP growth has actually been flat since 2013. For the five year period between 2013 to 2017, it grew at an average annual rate of 0.74% (2013 - $77.22 trillion, 2017 - $80.935 trillion, according to the World Bank). That is less than 1/3 of the GDP growth needed to service the world's massive $247 trillion debt load. Most of that increase in GDP was accomplished through CB money printing which is not a reflection of actual economic activity.

The US has done somewhat better than most of the rest of world because it has been the "go to place" for the world's capital outflows. According to the IMF that has been about $4 trillion a year. As governments (such as China is presently doing) restrict capital outflows to limit the impact of their contracting economies, and their economies become less affluent the flow of funds to the US will decline. The US will then suffer the same no growth malaise that the rest of the world is now experiencing.

Viewing economic growth strictly through US centric eyes misrepresents the actual economic activity that is occurring. It is a very short term perspective that will change as the remainder of the world's source of funds become more limited, and the transfer of funds to the US declines.

The world is now facing many obstacles which will restrict all future growth:

1) African Swine Fever is eliminating Asia's primary source of protein; hogs. It is rapidly spreading to the remainder of the world, and there is presently no known way to stop it.

2) The world has reached its point of maximum petroleum production, and as oil is the world's principle transportation energy source, economic activitby will become restrained.

3) Rapidly changing weather patterns are affecting agriculture which will increase food costs, and limit capital accumulation.

4) The growth of more restrictive, more bureaucratic, and more special interests controlled governments are inhibiting economic development.

5) Service costs for the world's massive debt load has eliminated the possibility for new capital formation.

The world has now reached its limit for economic development and expansion, and the US is following close behind. Wishful thinking, and inspiring, hyperbolic rants by loquacious politicians are not going to change the underlying circumstances.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6037
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 16:43:31

World GDP growth has actually been flat since 2013. For the five year period between 2013 to 2017, it grew at an average annual rate of 0.74% (2013 - $77.22 trillion, 2017 - $80.935 trillion, according to the World Bank). That is less than 1/3 of the GDP growth needed to service the world's massive $247 trillion debt load. Most of that increase in GDP was accomplished through CB money printing which is not a reflection of actual economic activity.


so how many times do you have to be corrected on this?

From the World Bank

GDP growth rate
2013: 2.653%
2014: 2.842%
2015: 2.86%
2016: 2.588%
2017: 3.154%
and from other sources for 2018 it was 3.3%

that is an average growth rate of 2.90% /annum not 0.74%.

Here is the chart from the very same page you link to.

Image
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6815
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 18:28:52

Shorty doesn't care about posting erroneous data and does it daily. This is why no one trusts a thing he posts. Well there are other reasons like welching on bets but that has been covered in depth.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12441
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 13 Jun 2019, 09:33:21

GDP growth rate


Good point; if the growth rate of the world is 0.74% (2013 - $77.22 trillion, 2017 - $80.935 trillion), and the growth rate of the US is about 3%, (with the US as 23% of world GDP), the rest of the world is in contraction. The US growth rate is the result of large capital inflows, not an expanding economy. Most of the $4 trillion per year in US capital inflows has been used to finance an out of control federal budget, and $trillion tech IPOs that will never generate a profit.

World economic growth is been disastrously too small to produce the GDP needed to service the existing debt. Over the last five years it has been only 0.74%. That has resulted in a massive surge in debt formation to compensate (the world is rapidly consuming its capital base to build ghost cities in China, and finance Silicon valley tech wonders that will never succeed). During the last decade world debt has grown by $84 trillion; or more than 4 times the annual GDP of the US. The first major crack in the credit markets will generate an avalanche of cascading defaults that will bring down the world. The mathematical inevitability of it is inescapable.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6037
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 13 Jun 2019, 09:42:17

Good point; if the growth rate of the world is 0.74% (2013 - $77.22 trillion, 2017 - $80.935 trillion), and the growth rate of the US is about 3%, (with the US as 23% of world GDP), the rest of the world is in contraction.


Jesus wept...what a moron. The graph clearly shows the ~3% growth rate is for the WORLD not the US.

Where do you get this ability to demonstrate monumental stupidity yet at the same time pretend you know what you are talking about?

So by my count that is now 6 times you have been instructed in this regard. I'm sure once again you will go away and several weeks later come back with the same claim, hoping that people have forgot. :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6815
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 13 Jun 2019, 11:00:29

rockdoc123 wrote:
Good point; if the growth rate of the world is 0.74% (2013 - $77.22 trillion, 2017 - $80.935 trillion), and the growth rate of the US is about 3%, (with the US as 23% of world GDP), the rest of the world is in contraction.


Jesus wept...what a moron. The graph clearly shows the ~3% growth rate is for the WORLD not the US.

Where do you get this ability to demonstrate monumental stupidity yet at the same time pretend you know what you are talking about?

So by my count that is now 6 times you have been instructed in this regard. I'm sure once again you will go away and several weeks later come back with the same claim, hoping that people have forgot. :roll:

I don't think even shorty is THAT stupid. I think he just deliberately misreports and "misunderstands" (or ignores) any corrections pointing to objective data sources, so he can go on with his hobby of misreporting and claiming imminent doom.

Then when people point out his terrible track record, he can call them names like a small child, and show how "smart" he is. :roll:

It's hilarious, really. If he can't understand, say, GDP vs global GDP, then how could he possibly understand the babble-speak charts and formulas he included in his ETP paper, spurious as much of that was?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6738
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby godq3 » Thu 13 Jun 2019, 11:06:05

Shortonoil just says about world GDP in US dollars, and World Bank says about real GDP growth.
User avatar
godq3
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri 23 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Tricity, PL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 13 Jun 2019, 11:57:39

godq3 wrote:Shortonoil just says about world GDP in US dollars, and World Bank says about real GDP growth.

What are you talking about? The growth rate is the growth rate. GDP is measured in dollars.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6738
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 13 Jun 2019, 12:27:04

(2013 - $77.22 trillion, 2017 - $80.935 trillion)


5 year average = + 0.74%,
which is insufficient growth to service the world's $247 trillion in debt.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

"idiots can count or cipher", was a well known phrase.

Apparently they can't read graphs either.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6037
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 13 Jun 2019, 15:37:08

"idiots can count or cipher", was a well known phrase.

Apparently they can't read graphs either.


There is only one idiot here and that would be the one who keeps trying to compare year to year GDP values in terms of current dollars, which is meaningless. Inflation has to be taken into account when you are looking at a series of data for GDP. The GDP growth numbers I quoted along with the chart I posted both use constant dollars and hence are the correct way of comparing year on year data.

The actual numbers for World GDP in 2010 constant dollars are:

2012: 69.835
2013: 71.688
2014: 73.725
2015: 75.834
2016: 77.797
2017: 80.25

that works out to growth rates from 2013 onwards of : 2.6%, 2.8%, 2.9%, 2.7% and 3.2% matching the graph of growth rate of World GDP I posted above.

Please show us how you get less than 1% annualized growth from that without doing something stupid like ignoring inflation? :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6815
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests