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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 14:38:15

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The last rebound was caused by trillions of govt debt, QE 1,2 and 3, TARP, bailouts, buyouts, 0% interest rates for 10 years etc. They kicked the can down the road for 11 yrs. Good luck with this one.


I see. So this time, unlike all the others going back to the last real energy crisis of the 1970's, isn't going to happen? You do understand that this was claimed about the last one as well? Folks made fun of Ben B and his helicopter money, and it turns out that a real expert knows quite a bit more about how markets work, and can be kept chugging along, than doomers saying forever the same thing you just did?




We’ll see. We have never entered a recession with interest rates at this historically low level. Those are the FED’s magic bullets. QE 4 will be bigger than Q1,2 and 3 combined.

Uncharted waters

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 18:31:56

Armageddon wrote:#gotgoldandsilver?


#gotbrokenrecords?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 18:54:46

Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The last rebound was caused by trillions of govt debt, QE 1,2 and 3, TARP, bailouts, buyouts, 0% interest rates for 10 years etc. They kicked the can down the road for 11 yrs. Good luck with this one.


I see. So this time, unlike all the others going back to the last real energy crisis of the 1970's, isn't going to happen? You do understand that this was claimed about the last one as well? Folks made fun of Ben B and his helicopter money, and it turns out that a real expert knows quite a bit more about how markets work, and can be kept chugging along, than doomers saying forever the same thing you just did?




We’ll see.


Of course we'll see. That's the entire point. Folks around here, their crystal ball...more than a little opaque. Just like last time.

Arnageddon wrote: We have never entered a recession with interest rates at this historically low level.


Well obviously because one metric or another isn't where it normally is, that must mean...DOOM!!! Remember when the world was supposed to end in 2008 because of peak oil and the financial crash? Yeah...turns out that didn't work out as expected by doomers either.

Armageddon wrote: Those are the FED’s magic bullets. QE 4 will be bigger than Q1,2 and 3 combined.

Uncharted waters

#gotgoldandsilver?


Uncharted waters indeed. Sort of like peak oil 15 years ago as well, that was supposed to be super special. <yawn> And we know how that "uncharted waters" went as well. Seriously, is that the best the doomers have nowadays for their end of the world fantasy scenario? Global recession must be doom because interest rates aren't usually this low when it happens?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 20:20:56

Actually, a little history of Venezuela vis-a-vis, the Western corporate economic order is instructive. Feel free to transfer this exchange to appropriate thread Mods. " The exploitation of Venezuela’s tremendous petroleum resources has been the constant objective of US policy and action toward the South American state for over a century." Yes, Venezuela should have let the oil companies stay because they lacked the expertise to exploit their oil reserves. Other than that based on history of extreme US meddling, can anyone blame them for being wary of interactions with the Western power brokers.


Russian defense contractors pulling out of Venezuela:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... low-maduro

One thing we can be pretty sure of, that is, if the Russians aren't getting paid the Chinese aren't either!

Is China going to attempt to move into Venezuela; now that the Russians are leaving. Even though there is no way for them to win, (the Venezuelan oil fields are now in such bad shape that even the US Majors may not be able to save them. Revitalizing those fields could take over $1 trillion.) A foothold in Venezuela could give China an advantage in the trade war (if their financial system doesn't melt down first). A war that the CCP must win, or it gets dumped into the Chinese history dust bin with about a 1,000 other war lords of yore. At this point Maduro is probably fore sale for about 10 bucks (US). In this grand international powers chess match, the US might just win a pawn, and loose a rook. Venezuela is starting to look more like a debt bomb, than a viable petroleum producing region.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 20:40:05

Uncharted waters


CDS are pricing in a 40% probability of two rate cuts by the end of 2020. One must be almost 100%.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 21:30:05

shortonoil wrote:
Uncharted waters


CDS are pricing in a 40% probability of two rate cuts by the end of 2020. One must be almost 100%.


Sounds bad. Sort of like when you were using Lydon LaRouche as your go to reference for why the world was supposed to be ending back during the Bush administration.

Just send in some sock puppets to support your position, you at least pretend they are a little less pompous in their certainty than you are.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 07:13:33

UK Retail Sales Crash By Most On Record

Australia cuts rates for the first time in three years to 1.25%, the lowest on record.


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 07:31:22

The Eurodollar futures just inverted by 78 bps. In 2007 the Eurodollar futures inverted by 50 bps and was followed by a stock market crash, the GFC, ZIRP and QE.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8K16WSXkAE ... me=900x900
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 13:45:14

Armageddon wrote:UK Retail Sales Crash By Most On Record


And that must be because of peak oil or just because you only forecast crashes? Brexit and political uncertainty must have nothing to do with it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 15:28:38

Powell just said QE is no longer unconventional. The only reason It did not crash the dollar and ignite inflation before is that markets were convinced it was temporary and reversible. If it's now business as usually, nothing will prevent a dollar crisis and runaway inflation!


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 17:23:11

Homelessness jumps 12% in L.A. County
and 16% in the city; officials ‘stunned’

-LA Times


Stunned? Not me. This is what is expected when entering an economic depression. We are just getting started.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 19:14:33

US factory orders fall; shipments post largest drop in two years
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 21:04:51

Only three other times in history precious metals surged while oil plunged!

All of them happened during severe bear markets and recessions.

Buckle up, son


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 21:19:59

Global Manufacturing PMI Contracts To 7-Year Low

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 23:44:25

Forums aren't twitter. Stop spamming.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 05 Jun 2019, 02:08:15

The S&P 500 bounced off the 1000 day moving average yesterday...until it hit resistance at 2803.

Amazing that these lines hold:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8P_MMFWkAE ... name=large

Today it's down again?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Jun 2019, 05:47:39

Tell me what possible relevance to anything a 1000 day moving average tells you about stock market direction and timing.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 05 Jun 2019, 07:11:50

Day traders follow all those lines and moving averages and act upon them.

A trend line seems to hold...until it breaks. Today it seems that the trend line will break...to the upside.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 05 Jun 2019, 07:51:34

Yoshua wrote:Day traders follow all those lines and moving averages and act upon them.

A trend line seems to hold...until it breaks. Today it seems that the trend line will break...to the upside.


The question was about relevance. You have just said it is completely irrelevant as it is just some make believe day trader hope/desire.

So what does an arbitrary level that day traders like have to do with the market at large? Did day traders stop the market drop of 2008? Did day traders cause the rebound out of 2009 and current higher market levels? Did what day traders want EVER cause the market to so something that it wouldn't otherwise do based on underlying fundamentals?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 05 Jun 2019, 07:57:56

Druckenmiller Dumps All His Stocks, Piles Into Treasuries Expecting Rates To Hit Zero

But it's no longer just Albert who sees a deflationary tsunami flooding over the US. The grouchy permabear was joined by billionaire Stan Druckenmiller, who said he could see the Fed funds rate going to zero in the next 18 months if the economy softens, and that he recently piled into Treasuries as the U.S. trade war with China escalated.


The world has been heading into a deflationary economy since at least 2012 when petroleum reached its energy half way point. Money creation exploded in an attempt to compensate. It doesn't look like that is gong to work much longer.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... s-hit-zero

Only three other times in history precious metals surged while oil plunged!

All of them happened during severe bear markets and recessions.

Buckle up, son


At $52 the petroleum industry is getting close to its average breakeven OC. With air, rail, container, and truck freight now in free fall, shut-ins will be the next indication of the ongoing systemic collapse. This week is another "big surprise" crude, and finished product build. The coming end of the oil age shouldn't really be a "big surprise" anymore than the upcoming world wide depression that will soon have Mr. Druckenmiller going long horse shoes, and buggy whips.
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