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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 11:03:48

U.S. Officials Meet in Secret Over Junk-Loan Frenzy as Recession Alarms Flash - TheStreet REPEAT AFTER ME: Credit market volatility is the genie that must be confined to her bottle. If she’s released, all hell breaks loose. Don’t watch stocks. Watch bonds!

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Rate cut coming and bye bye Cog for 3 months lol
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 11:17:45

The amazing thing is that there is a distinct possibility that the Fed should be raising rates. The bond market is reflecting a flight to quality, especially in the ten year yield. Investors are steering clear of stocks because of Trump's volatility. The latest event was an unexpected announcement of new tariffs on Mexico. Trump's declared intention was political, not economic, a decrease in illegal immigration, but auto makers got hit very hard by that. The reaction to Trump in the bond market is lowering rates, by raising the price paid for bonds.

The lowering of rates could produce a mini real estate boom. It could for two reasons. First of all, people may be able to consolidate higher interest debt into a lower interest mortgage. Secondly, people may be able to get into the housing market at a rate they can afford the monthly payments on. The thing about healthcare overstating people's incomes, not being take home pay, works both ways. It also allows people in that situation to qualify for loans. Borrowing is how the money supply expands. An expanded money supply raises the inflation threat. Inflation could put a squeeze upon those who can borrow more, but are not as able to pay the monthly costs of their borrowing as a high altitude view of the situation would assume. The costs of everything else they have to pay for each month in life would be going up as well.

One thing is almost certain under an inflationary outlook engendered this way, healthcare costs are likely to rise at a rate disproportionately faster than the rate of inflation. And they will not contract at the same rate as the overall economy when things right themselves. Just behind the probability of rising healthcare costs will be the probability of a stock market bull market. An expansion of the money supply increases that probability. Assuming that would occur is dangerous thinking, though. All sorts of world wide events, or government action, or rising unemployment, or (less likely) a too high default rate, could prevent it. So, if one were to try and time their investments to the time when a mini housing boom took place, but the expansion of the money supply had not yet reached the markets, one could wind up disappointed. One might also win. That's why they say it is risk/reward.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 12:02:52

Dow
24,815.04 
-354.84 
-1.41%


Reality check:
Dow 17500 May 2016 versus current 24815 means the Dow is up ~42%

S&P 500
2,752.06 
-36.80 
-1.32% 


Reality check:
S&P 500 2050 May 2016 versus current 2752 means the S&P 500 is up ~34%

Nasdaq
7,453.15 
-114.57 
-1.51% 


Reality check:
Nasdaq 4700 May 2016 versus current 7453 means the Nasdaq is up ~59%

GlobalDow
2,885.38
-2.67
-0.09%


Reality check:
Global Dow 2350 May 2016 versus current 2885 means the Dow is up ~59%

And these measures are only from 3 years ago, if you went back to 2011 the increases would be even more substantial, but nice attempt at cheery picking. :roll:

Neither oil nor gold spot prices at any specific time are good measures of the economy as many factors influence them beyond supply/demand …eg. Politics, war, trade etc. That being said even they are up over the past three years.

Gold 1244 May 2016 versus current 1310 means Gold is up 5%

Oil 50.06 May 2016 versus current price 53.36 means even oil is up ~7%

As the majority of the increase in oil demand is now coming from the oil industry itself,


Back with this BS again?
Please show us from financial filings where companies are paying more for fuel than they are producing? It doesn’t happen. As has been shown here a few times when Pstarr was on this kick the cost in fuel to produce oil and gas is a small portion of overall costs for drilling and production and in many cases oil and gas companies are now using mostly electricity including electric drive rigs. There is no way the oil companies are consuming most of the produced oil....that is just stupid.

and demand from the remainder of the economy is declining,


Not according to the IEA

Oil demand growth estimates for both 2018 and 2019 have been cut, the International Energy Agency revealed in its latest report issued Wednesday.
Last year’s oil demand growth estimate has been revised downward by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.2 million bpd, while the forecast for this year is cut by 90,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd, the IEA said.


Just so you understand….demand is still increasing, just not at the same rate originally forecast. Perhaps the difference between increasing and decreasing is lost on you. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 13:31:43

Just so you understand….demand is still increasing, just not at the same rate originally forecast. Perhaps the difference between increasing and decreasing is lost on you.


In your dreams; there is not one iota of evidence to indicate that demand is increasing, and please save us all the IMF projection crap. They haven't been right in 30 years.

World Crude Oil Production is at a current level of 82.39M


The 2018 yearly average was 82.88 mb/d.

Your next arguement will be that just because there is no extra production it doesn't mean there is no extra demand. Of course, it is being supplied by the Martians.

As 57% of all the energy contained in oil is now being used by the industry to produce it, the industry itself is the dominate source of demand. With the price of oil going down so also will that source of demand. The oil industry hasn't been a charity operation since old John D. took it over.

It is the first of June and the World Bank has still not published the world 2018 GDP numbers. Most years they come out in April. The IMF is still insisting that world GDP grew by 3.6% last year, even though the World Bank shows that has not happened in more than a decade. According to the WB world GDP grew at an average annual rate of 0.62% between 2013 and 2017. With a growth rate of less than 1% per year for the world economy oil demand must be soaring!

If the printed funny money, which was pulled out of the ether, is taken out world GDP is contracting. The oil industry is making less and less money on every barrel they pump and process. That can be sort of expected near the end.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/world_cr ... production
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 13:43:35

shortonoil wrote:
Just so you understand….demand is still increasing, just not at the same rate originally forecast. Perhaps the difference between increasing and decreasing is lost on you.


In your dreams; there is not one iota of evidence to indicate that demand is increasing, and please save us all the IMF projection crap. They haven't been right in 30 years.


So then we just use real data? Not that you pay attention to it, but apparently RocDoc and I do. Hence our ability to say things that are true, and you just spew nonsense. Demand has been increasing the entire time you've been getting your silly oil field ideas laughed out of any kind of peer review.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 15:55:27

As 57% of all the energy contained in oil is now being used by the industry to produce it, the industry itself is the dominate source of demand. With the price of oil going down so also will that source of demand.


God you are a moron. Please show us your calculation that backs this claim up. I've shown the calculation as to exactly the amount of oil in the way of fuel that is consumed in order to drill a well and produce a bbl of oil....as pretty much everyone here has pointed out this claim of yours is complete and utter nonsense. But keep making crap up without any data support, you are apparently becoming an expert at that. :roll:

It is simple enough to just look up who the major consumers of oil are. Industrial consumption of oil (of which oil and gas extraction does not make up the majority) accounts for about 20% of all oil consumption. In other words your numbers aren't even close.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 16:01:32

In your dreams; there is not one iota of evidence to indicate that demand is increasing, and please save us all the IMF projection crap. They haven't been right in 30 years.


Clear sign of your illiteracy here. As I stated in my post the demand projection based on past data and economic information is by the IEA. Perhaps you are acronym illiterate? In which case IEA stands for International Energy Agency which is an autonomous inter-governmental agency whereas IMF stands for the International Monetary Fund is a completely separate international organization concentrating on finance, economic development, international trade and sustainable economic growth. The two are pretty much unrelated.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 07:35:21

... sending the 10Y TSY yield as low as 2.07%, the lowest level in almost 21 months, after JPMorgan said it now expects the 10Y yield to drop to 1.75% by year end...


Uh - OH!

If that's not enough, China's banking system is falling apart. Guess a 320% Debt/GDP ratio did matter.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ls-trouble
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... e-collapse

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And Peak Auto comes along with Peak Oil. There will be some who can not see the relationship. They have also been known to do things like staring at their navel while the house burns down.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06- ... d-mismatch
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 08:38:26

And Peak Auto comes along with Peak Oil. There will be some who can not see the relationship. They have also been known to do things like staring at their navel while the house burns down.


The ETP Bozo is a retard.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Revi » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 09:18:13

Looks like we have already hit peak car! The cost of a car is too much for a lot of people nowadays.

I was interested to find out that 13% of world oil is now being traded in yuan, which is a pretty quick rise, since it's only been trading for 6 months!
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 10:34:54

There are a lot of factors at play. For instance, cars just last longer these days. I got rid of my car after around 15 years without experiencing a single engine problem. I had problems elsewhere, but not the main powerplant. I could have kept driving it if not for fear of the structural integrity of the body. I think there is just a glut of used cars out there. So we're really dealing with peak NEW car, not so much peak per capita car ownership, although that too will erode as ride-sharing becomes more popular. (Not that this is related to the stock market either)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 11:23:19

Global recession fears grow as factory activity shrinks

US home improvement activity is declining at a record pace, down over 20% YoY and much worse than the financial crisis. MoM was -26% annualized, 3m/3m was -22%, so it's not a base effect either.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 11:46:05

Global recession fears mount as manufacturing PMIs around the world confirm contraction:
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
Malaysia
Russia
Poland
Turkey
Czech Republic
Italy
Germany
UK

All below 50.0

China, Spain stagnating and on the cusp of contracting
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 11:47:43

shortonoil wrote:And Peak Auto comes along with Peak Oil.


Chicken..or egg. You do understand that peak demand is nothing more than peak oil via a different means? Or maybe not, after all, no one has ever said intellectual honesty and being a welsher can inhabit the same person.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 11:50:06

Armageddon wrote:Global recession fears mount as manufacturing PMIs around the world confirm contraction:
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
Malaysia
Russia
Poland
Turkey
Czech Republic
Italy
Germany
UK

All below 50.0

China, Spain stagnating and on the cusp of contracting


If the world gets another equities investment opportunity like we did in 2008, I don't know what to say other than:"

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 11:51:34

ISM lower than expected. ISM Imports have been the best GDP indicator in the ISM survey over the last 20 years and is at levels consistent w near 0% growth. Also, my leading v lagging Philly indicator points to much more ISM downside the coming 6 months.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 12:26:29

Armageddon wrote:ISM lower than expected. ISM Imports have been the best GDP indicator in the ISM survey over the last 20 years and is at levels consistent w near 0% growth. Also, my leading v lagging Philly indicator points to much more ISM downside the coming 6 months.


Sounds bad. How long before we can expect the bottoming out so we can get in on the killer rebound?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 12:47:48

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:ISM lower than expected. ISM Imports have been the best GDP indicator in the ISM survey over the last 20 years and is at levels consistent w near 0% growth. Also, my leading v lagging Philly indicator points to much more ISM downside the coming 6 months.


Sounds bad. How long before we can expect the bottoming out so we can get in on the killer rebound?



The last rebound was caused by trillions of govt debt, QE 1,2 and 3, TARP, bailouts, buyouts, 0% interest rates for 10 years etc. They kicked the can down the road for 11 yrs. Good luck with this one.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 13:03:56

Barclays calling for a 75BP Rate cut, 50, followed by another 25...


Damn son
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Jun 2019, 14:28:34

Armageddon wrote:The last rebound was caused by trillions of govt debt, QE 1,2 and 3, TARP, bailouts, buyouts, 0% interest rates for 10 years etc. They kicked the can down the road for 11 yrs. Good luck with this one.


I see. So this time, unlike all the others going back to the last real energy crisis of the 1970's, isn't going to happen? You do understand that this was claimed about the last one as well? Folks made fun of Ben B and his helicopter money, and it turns out that a real expert knows quite a bit more about how markets work, and can be kept chugging along, than doomers saying forever the same thing you just did?
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