Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 11:44:20

Armageddon wrote:I have been talking about the economy, not the stock markets. Pay attention son.


Then stop using this thread (see thread topic).

Image
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2551
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 12:29:43

April 2019 real PCE up 2.7% year over year. The consumer, 70% of the economy, is still humming along. Pay attention son.

Image
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 13:16:02

I have been talking about the economy, not the stock markets. Pay attention son.


so now you are claiming the economy is completely delinked from stock markets?

You might want to take that argument up with pretty much every economist out there. :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6811
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 13:17:43

All I know is that I am far too small an investor to stand in the way of the great orangutan as he flexes for history. The future looks like US isolationism. What will the Europeans, Chinese, South Americans, Africans and Russians put together without America? The system, as it stands, works better with the US at the helm. It's still a Bretton Woods based system, no matter what sort of changes have occurred among the players. The orangutan may be attempting to lead, but he may wind up alienating everyone and, instead, declaring how much better off we are without all of them. Just believe him and you will see how. It's scary how many people look ready to believe him.

The big problem in the US is wage growth. People have to borrow for trivial things because they don't make enough. Working people in America are generally under the false impression that they aren't valuable enough to ask for what they need. They've taken that "no such thing as a free lunch" thing to heart, and assumed that they deserve the low level of pay they receive. They don't dare ask their aristocratic masters for more. They don't stop to think how clever the marketing used against them really was, that they should support their own weak position as if it were a God given natural thing. Wage negotiations should be a two sided thing, not a "take it or leave it" thing. There isn't anything wrong with the system that realignment of attitudes regarding pay wouldn't fix. But, then, look at how close we are to what you might call a final victory for those who've sought to legalize the situation by attacking things like the right to collective bargaining by lobbying Congress, for decades. They are willing to lose a billion dollars just like that down the Uber hole in the hopes that they can leverage artificial intelligence in a grand scheme to eliminate, once and for all, labor costs.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2655
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 14:42:50

The big problem in the US is wage growth. People have to borrow for trivial things because they don't make enough.


The macro data says otherwise.

Joe Sixpack's real wages have been rising for 25 years.

Image

Jane Chardonnay has deleveraged since the Great Recession with debt service payments relative to after-tax income being the lowest in 40 years.

Image
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 14:47:22

rockdoc123 wrote:
I have been talking about the economy, not the stock markets. Pay attention son.


so now you are claiming the economy is completely delinked from stock markets?

You might want to take that argument up with pretty much every economist out there. :roll:

They don't call it wall st and main st because they are so linked. And GDP is measuring economic activity whose profits mostly go to a very few. So, we can pretend the stock market has some relevance to the man on the street but in reality it has just become a gambling casino for rich entities 8O
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10454
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 14:49:11

The future looks like US isolationism.


Much of what you say is true, but not fully complete. Technological advancement is deflationary by its very nature, and that has hit the middle class the hardest. A change in attitude might help, but it doesn't look likely that it, by its self, would change the situation. Companies must innovate or get run over by their competition, and competition is now coming on world wide. If a US company doesn't adopt an advancement a French, or Chinese company will. Capitalism has been the most successful process ever adopted for providing goods and services to the populous, but it looks like it is reaching its point of diminishing returns. When it begins to improvise those it was intended to provide for, it has failed. The US trend toward isolationism is a reaction to that growing failure.

Becoming technologically dormant would be suicide; more technological advancement will only add to the growing inequality in the present system. Somewhere in there is a solution, but we aren't even close to adopting it!

Excellent post;, thanks.
BW
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6036
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 15:35:01

rockdoc123 wrote:
I have been talking about the economy, not the stock markets. Pay attention son.


so now you are claiming the economy is completely delinked from stock markets?

You might want to take that argument up with pretty much every economist out there. :roll:




Wow, dont even have words for this.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4871
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 16:09:27

They don't call it wall st and main st because they are so linked. And GDP is measuring economic activity whose profits mostly go to a very few. So, we can pretend the stock market has some relevance to the man on the street but in reality it has just become a gambling casino for rich entities 8O


What they are named has nothing whatsoever to do with linkage I'm afraid. The stock market reflects the general economic conditions of the economy where it is centered. In an increasing economy output increases and firms tend to show greater profitability. There are instances historically where the market has fallen considerably and GDP continued to increase but that has been for a short period, overall historically the rise in GDP has been matched by a rise in market valuation using whatever index. On the contrary, try and point to sometime in the past where GDP was falling and the stock market was rising. The fact of the matter is that in a good economy the stock market will perform well over time, in a poor economy it will not. Hence an argument that the economy has been in bad shape for the last decade even though the stock market has been continually increasing along with GDP is pretty hard to substantiate unless you live on planet Bizarro.

Regardless of what is being predicted for the second or third quarters, we do have the results for the first quarter. GDP rose at a record rate. At the same time in Q1 almost every sector beat earnings expectations including Energy, Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, Tech, Financials, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary with the latter beating estimates to the upside by 20%. In fact, the only sector that missed on earnings expectations for that period was Telcos (4% below expectation). Add to that record employment that has not shown a lot of signs of decreasing rapidly and it becomes even harder to argue the economy has been in poor shape. What comes in the future remains to be seen.



There is no need to "pretend" the stock market has some relevance to the man in the street. It is the money raised in the market that allows companies to operate and provide the goods that consumers need. As well, individuals who have done well in the market tend to spend that money and often create businesses which contribute to employment whether they are public or private. You and some of the other chicken littles here are forever complaining about the 1%....well they make a lot of their money in the market and invest that money often in private businesses and they also pay more income tax than the total from the bottom 90%. Without the markets for the 1% to generate their wealth the "hoi polloi" would either have to take on a huge tax burden or suffer a substantial decrease in standard of living.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6811
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 17:11:02

Economic collapse isn’t an event, it’s a process. They kicked the can down the road in the 2008 crises with QE1,2,3 and ZIRP. This time, they’ve ran out of road.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4871
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 18:26:01

marmico wrote:
The big problem in the US is wage growth. People have to borrow for trivial things because they don't make enough.


The macro data says otherwise.

Joe Sixpack's real wages have been rising for 25 years.

Image

Jane Chardonnay has deleveraged since the Great Recession with debt service payments relative to after-tax income being the lowest in 40 years.

Image


Yeah, and how much of that is pre-tax healthcare benefits? Those can't be considered disposable income. What about people who don't work for someone, but are trapped in an almost identical situation through independent contracting? In their case, the expenses they are responsible for are often forgotten. They get paid, but don't get benefits either. They will either be on Medicaid or paying for their own coverage. The graph doesn't make sense when Amazon Flex, for instance, pays only between $17 and $18 on average, and, yet, Amazon is able to get people to deliver for them. That work is hard too. A three hour route can have over 40 packages to deliver. I've read that Uber and Lyft put people into similar situations. If they could find average pay that was above that, you would think they would be doing that instead. It is true that the rates go up as they get closer to run time and there aren't drivers. But could they rely upon that to fulfill their business model if the true average wage was so high in comparison to what they purport to offer as a base rate? Don't you think that Uber, Lyft and Amazon would have to average something touching at least $24 for the model to fulfill the service offered? It looks to me like the graph is either being blown out at the top end, by a far higher average wage among the highest earners, or it is including benefits which are not available to working people as disposable income.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2655
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 23:22:17

onlooker wrote:we can pretend the stock market has some relevance to the man on the street but in reality it has just become a gambling casino for rich entities


Be honest...

If the stock market is soaring, doomers like you say it doesn't impact anyone's quality of life in a positive way and they start fishing for any and every negative economic indicator to cover their ass (Armageddon and Short's current circle-jerk). But if the stock market tanks, oh boy, it's the end of the world as we know it (hence the motivation for starting this thread way back when).
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2551
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 04:30:19

There's something wrong with Wall Street banks.

Citi

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8Ciz8ZX4AE ... name=large
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1477
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 07:11:49

The treasury is worried about the credit market.

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/as-re ... y-14977371
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1477
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 07:44:57

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:we can pretend the stock market has some relevance to the man on the street but in reality it has just become a gambling casino for rich entities


Be honest...

If the stock market is soaring, doomers like you say it doesn't impact anyone's quality of life in a positive way and they start fishing for any and every negative economic indicator to cover their ass (Armageddon and Short's current circle-jerk). But if the stock market tanks, oh boy, it's the end of the world as we know it (hence the motivation for starting this thread way back when).

That is actually a valid point. But I personally have never pointed to any of this. We are NOT a homogenous group us doomers ie. realists :-D
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10454
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 09:30:08

Dow
24,815.04
-354.84
-1.41%


S&P 500
2,752.06
-36.80
-1.32%


Nasdaq
7,453.15
-114.57
-1.51%


GlobalDow
2,885.38
-2.67
-0.09%


Gold
1,310.20
-0.90
-0.07%


Oil
53.36
-0.14
-0.26%

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/f ... electronic

Looks like a train wreck in progress.

As the majority of the increase in oil demand is now coming from the oil industry itself, and demand from the remainder of the economy is declining, we can expect a significant decline in overall demand within a few months. The market will go ballistic.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6036
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 09:37:52

The treasury is worried about the credit market.

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/as-re ... y-14977371


The CB Achilles heal! They have zero control over the credit markets, and their Jeti Money Printing trick doesn't work without it. It is where the rubber will meet the road.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6036
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 09:42:05

Banks Report Growth in Sour Loans, Led by Credit-Card Debt

FDIC report also shows 22.8% surge in commercial- and industrial-loan balances that are 90 days or more past due

https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-repo ... 1559142378
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4871
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 10:08:52

Armageddon just pe3d his pants. Time to change his diaper. The delinquency rate for C&I loans increased from 0.96% in Q4 2018 to 1.14% in Q1 2019.

Image
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Jun 2019, 11:02:46

Banks Report Growth in Sour Loans, Led by Credit-Card Debt

FDIC report also shows 22.8% surge in commercial- and industrial-loan balances that are 90 days or more past due


And then there is China. Their NPL situation is progressing to full scale bank collapses. Coming to a neighborhood near you soon, and world oil production has stalled. The wolf is at the door.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6036
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests