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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 30 May 2019, 15:06:04

Only 10% Of US Shale Drillers Have A Positive Cash Flow

Rystad has studied the financial performance of 40 dedicated US shale oil companies, focusing on cash flow from operating activities (CFO). This is the cash that is available to expand the business (via capital expenditure, capex), reduce debt, or return to shareholders.

Only four companies in our peer group reported a positive cash flow balance in the first quarter of 2019, bringing down the share of companies with a positive cash flow balance from the recent norm of around 20% to just 10%. Total CFO fell from $14 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018 to $9.9 billion in the first quarter of 2019.


Image

When the credit markets blow out, the majors who absolutely have to have that production will be footing a very big bill.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... -cash-flow
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Thu 30 May 2019, 15:10:18

Does that mean the stock market crash will be Monday shorty or should I expect another year wait on this event? Enquiring minds wish to know so we can plan our portfolio balances. After all doomers are never wrong right?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 30 May 2019, 16:15:17

When the credit markets blow out, the majors who absolutely have to have that production will be footing a very big bill.


as has been pointed out numerous times cash flow from operating activities includes pure paper accounting numbers such as DD&A and it also includes cash that has been spent on either buying new properties or drilling, completing and tying in new wells.
If cash flow was negative in these companies when you measured Real Cash versus and accounting construct (ie. revenues minus costs related to production and maintaining the business) one should be worried, but they aren't. In most cases, these companies are generating enough cash that they can fund their own growth through the drill bit or acquisitions (as you have been shown on numerous occasions previously).
but by all means reference some moron from Zero Hedge who also doesn't understand how to read a balance sheet since it fits your picture of perpetual doom. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 30 May 2019, 20:03:23

Just think--if the mods instituted a no-zerohedge-link zone Short and Armageddon wouldn't be able to post anymore.
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 30 May 2019, 21:44:02

China economy: Official manufacturing PMI for May “The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May came in at 49.4, lower than the 49.9 economists polled by Reuters had forecast. April's reading was 50.1.”

Entire globe is contracting
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 31 May 2019, 07:08:45

Entire globe is contracting


The world is in a deflationary spiral that will continue as we approach the end of the oil age. By 2030 world GDP will decline by at least $16 trillion as petroleum approaches its "dead state". The geopolitical consequences are already becoming quite apparent.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/


Why Bears Will Win The Oil Price War

Oil prices may have had an impressive rally this year – until last week – but the longer-term trend looks downbeat. “Deflationary forces are gathering momentum,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a new report.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... e-War.html

WTI $55.70 this morning. Over the next decade petroleum prices will continue to fall (in spite of all efforts to keep them elevated). Oil is losing its value to the economy as its energy delivery capabilities decline from entropic decay.

The end of the oil age will be preceded by a world in economic ruin.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 31 May 2019, 08:59:46

There simply are no clear portents of Doom anywhere in sight. Economic statistics are mixed as they typically are, by focussing on one or another extreme you can make anything from apocalyptic to quite optimistic forecasts for just about anything. It's all useless computing cycles, and a waste of time.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby GHung » Fri 31 May 2019, 09:23:49

KaiserJeep wrote:There simply are no clear portents of Doom anywhere in sight. .....


Not sure if it spells doom in your book, but it will have to be dealt with at some point, one way or the other. And I'm betting it'll be pretty doomish for many:

https://www.usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html

But, yeah, lets just keep ignoring all that. Out of sight, out of (your freakin') minds......
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 31 May 2019, 09:59:21

Why Bears Will Win The Oil Price War

Oil prices may have had an impressive rally this year – until last week – but the longer-term trend looks downbeat. “Deflationary forces are gathering momentum,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a new report.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... e-War.html

WTI $55.70 this morning. Over the next decade petroleum prices will continue to fall (in spite of all efforts to keep them elevated). Oil is losing its value to the economy as its energy delivery capabilities decline from entropic decay.


do you ever bother to read the articles you link to that you claim somehow support your ridiculous views on oil economics? Apparently not.
This is a direct quote from that article:

However, in the background, there are several variables that could exert deflationary pressure on the oil market. Morgan Stanley has noted that U.S. shale is slowing, “but with 200 [billion] barrels of resource with breakevens in the $40-45/bbl range, there is an increasingly credible scenario that shale could grow >1 mb/d per year out to 2025.” Moreover, oil producers are turning to a variety of digital technologies, robotics and automation that could keep costs in check. That’s good for individual oil companies, the investment bank argues, but in the aggregate, it puts a lid on crude prices.


So the article is saying oil prices will go lower due to the success of oil companies, not due to decreasing demand, not due to increasing EROEI or any of the other complete BS you keep throwing out here.

Either you are completely illiterate, can't be bothered to read anything or you have little respect for the intelligence of the average reader here.

But go ahead, keep making a fool of yourself, at the very least it is entertaining.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Fri 31 May 2019, 11:37:55

An excellent day to buy some automotive stocks.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 31 May 2019, 14:14:08

Oil at $53 this afternoon, and all the analysts are scracthing their heads with more than 5 mb/d over the last year now off line. Which is more oil than the shale patch has brought on line in the last 3 years. With the credit markets now getting ready to collapse that will be more oil than the shale patch will be bringing on line over the next 50.

There is now $11 trillion in negative interest rate bonds.

Image

Just because this is the first time this has happened in the last 7,000 years doesn't mean that it is any kind of an anomaly. The Keynesian Economists will have an explanation for it any day now. It may be an excellent day to buy GOLD.

Image
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 31 May 2019, 15:57:08

In a ‘pump and dump’ operation this continues until the market or stock is as vastly overvalued as in the year 2000 and 2008. During the final phase, the big, smart money starts implementing big short positions as in September 2018.

Then the plug is pulled and the manipulators make big profits in a plunge or crash.

However, be aware that often, after the initial plunge, there is another rally back to confuse the naïve money managers who don’t know technical analysis.


Being fattened for the kill


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 31 May 2019, 16:03:32

Oil at $53 this afternoon, and all the analysts are scracthing their heads


yeah, right. Maybe the analysts at WEHAVENTAFRIGGINGCLUE.com :roll:

A simple trip to oilprice.com points out what has been driving the price

President Trump threatened to slap a 5 percent tariff on all goods imported from Mexico beginning on June 10. In a tweet, he said that the tariff would gradually increase over time unless illegal immigration stopped. The announcement is also a serious blow to attempts to pass the NAFTA 2.0 agreement, which needs be ratified in the national legislatures of Mexico, the U.S. and Canada. “The decision, understandably, is sending shivers down investors’ spines,” PVM said in a note. “U.S. refiners import roughly 680,000 barrels per day of Mexican crude. The 5% tariff adds an extra $2 million to the cost of their daily purchases.”


At 12:12pm EST, moments before data release, WTI was down $1.55 (-2.74%) at $55.04. WTI is trading down more than $3 per barrel week on week as the China-US trade war and threats of tariffs on Mexico goods continues to pressure prices as stubborn US crude oil inventories refuse to draw down to any significant degree.


US oil production this week contributed to the bearish sentiment, ticking up for week ending May 24 to again reach the all-time high of 12.3 million bpd that had been originally reached in April.


so a combination of the belief that US production is too high (greater supply so lower price) and a fear that Mexican tarrifs will affect demand (artificially high price beyond what a normal market would support) is the consensus. The oil futures market is driven by rumour, fear and perception of what the future will bring. Even though Trumps Mexico tarriff threat hasn't been enacted yet the thought it might be drives oil traders to make their positions just as the thought that increasing rig utilization in the US will increase supply.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 31 May 2019, 17:43:56

Image

The first thing to go is the banks; the question is which ones? When the banks start falling bitcoin is going to a $million!. Gold, maybe $10,000. Having three or four separate accounts in separate banks may also make sense. Banks are the output, and input mechanisms of money flow, and they get paid a small percentage for handling it. When they begin to fail, cash will begin to get rare. When anything gets rare, it becomes more valuable. Oil is not rare, but it has gotten so low in quality that its value to the economy is no longer increasing. Without the increasing value of oil for the economy, growth stops, and the monetary system implodes. That is now happening in the credit markets.

Image

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... s-collapse
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 31 May 2019, 20:14:20

Wouldn’t surprise me if the trade war and tariffs are being used as a scapegoat for this upcoming collapse.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 31 May 2019, 21:35:40

Wouldn’t surprise me if the trade war and tariffs are being used as a scapegoat for this upcoming collapse.


I guess that speaks to your credibility now doesn't it?

Kind of like the posts you had back in 2011 that were continually predicting a serious recession (which of course never happened). Instead the S&P climbed continuously from around 1280 to 2770 some 7 years later.

In case anyone missed those gems from back in early 2011

Record Low Housing Completions in 2010 and 2011 expected to be worse. Millions more foreclosures, millions more on food stamps, etc,etc....... Recovery ? 



The 'new' housing industry in the US is over. 10's of millions of jobs directly and indirectly related will be gone forever.


Millions of people not paying their mortgage and spending that money keeping the economy artificially propped up will end soon.

If a person doesn't see a crash on the horizon, they are...

A) stupid
B) Ignorant
C) A moron
D) Have an agenda 
E) Paid shill
F) Dropped on their head at birth
G) Troll
H) Trying to get a rise out of people when they really know it's all crashing
I) Have nothing better to do and is a loser and lives in parents basement
J) All the above
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 31 May 2019, 21:54:06

We are in the continuation of the 2008 crash. Are you too stupid to understand that trillions of govt bailouts, buyouts, QE 1,2,3, zirp etc prolonged the crash?

You will see QE 4 and rate cuts in the very near future. The Viagra has wore off. You are witnessing a global meltdown.

Grab your popcorn son.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 08:08:16

Are you too stupid to understand that trillions of govt bailouts, buyouts, QE 1,2,3, zirp etc prolonged the crash?


That is one possibility, the other is that he has been living under a rock on Jupiter's 8th moon since the year 2000. It is hard to hear the gun fire going on in down town Chicago from there.

There has been no real growth in the world's economy for some time. We have been powering the economy by consuming existing assets, like oil reserves for almost 20 years. The CB have been injecting currency into a stagnate economy to assist in our "eating the seed corn" process. Pushing more currency into a shrinking real economy puts downward pressure on interest rates. The velocity of money falls, the credit markets collapse, and the debt based, fiat monetary system fails with it.

World debt has grown from $46.4 trillion in 2000 to $247 trillion in 2018. That informs us that we are consuming everything in sight, and replacing none of it! Going into debt with no possible hope of ever paying it back is called losing, insolvency, and bankruptcy. Planet Earth is heading for a foreclosure proceeding. Maybe the Cosmic Bankruptcy Court will allow the earth critters to keep their cell phones?

Without FB there will be 7.4 billion zombies wandering around with no stimulus; and no direction at all!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 11:10:00

We are in the continuation of the 2008 crash. Are you too stupid to understand that trillions of govt bailouts, buyouts, QE 1,2,3, zirp etc prolonged the crash? 


Yeah, you have been saying that on this site for what now? 10 years I believe, all along predicting an imminent crash. Did one happen? Perhaps we all missed it as we were reinvesting the money we had made in the market? :roll:

As to who is stupid….let’s look at the definition of stock market crash:

Definition of Stock Market Crash according to Wikipedia

A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a significant cross-section of a stock market, resulting in a significant loss of paper wealth. 


Investopedia

A stock market crash is a rapid and often unanticipated drop in stock prices.


The balance

A stock market crash is when a stock index drops severely in a day or two of trading. The indexes are the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard & Poor's 500, and the NASDAQ.
A crash is more sudden than a stock market correction, when the market falls 10 percent from its 52-week high over days, weeks, or even months. 


So how does that apply to the US market post 2008?

10 yr Dow Jones
Image

10 yr S&P 500
Image

see a "crash" in there anywhere? See a "continuation of the 2008 crash" in that data?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 7

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 01 Jun 2019, 11:25:07

rockdoc123 wrote:
We are in the continuation of the 2008 crash. Are you too stupid to understand that trillions of govt bailouts, buyouts, QE 1,2,3, zirp etc prolonged the crash? 


Yeah, you have been saying that on this site for what now? 10 years I believe, all along predicting an imminent crash. Did one happen? Perhaps we all missed it as we were reinvesting the money we had made in the market? :roll:

As to who is stupid….let’s look at the definition of stock market crash:

Definition of Stock Market Crash according to Wikipedia

A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a significant cross-section of a stock market, resulting in a significant loss of paper wealth. 


Investopedia

A stock market crash is a rapid and often unanticipated drop in stock prices.


The balance

A stock market crash is when a stock index drops severely in a day or two of trading. The indexes are the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard & Poor's 500, and the NASDAQ.
A crash is more sudden than a stock market correction, when the market falls 10 percent from its 52-week high over days, weeks, or even months. 


So how does that apply to the US market post 2008?

10 yr Dow Jones
Image

10 yr S&P 500
Image

see a "crash" in there anywhere? See a "continuation of the 2008 crash" in that data?




I have been talking about the economy, not the stock markets. Pay attention son.
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