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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 01:06:03

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 24 Dec 2019, 00:44:33

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Good thing there wasn't any drought in California in 2019.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 22 Feb 2020, 18:07:49

Dry February sends California back to drought: 'This hasn't happened in 150 years'
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/21/california-drought-february-rain-snow-pack-sierra

“We have a fair bit of single-year drought resilience. No matter how severe it is, the cities and most of the [agriculture] zones won’t run out of water.”

The more immediate impacts of this trend will be on the ecosystem and the inevitable fire season, as California’s grasslands and forests continue to dry out.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 23 Feb 2020, 07:19:38

The reservoirs are all in pretty good shape for this time of year.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/java ... escond.pdf
But the snowpack above the lakes is about half of normal for the day of the year.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 04 Apr 2020, 15:45:15

While California had a March Miracle wet season, Florida seems to be in drought after this winter:

Florida Brush Fire Destroys at Least 100 Cars at Airport
https://weather.com/news/news/2020-04-04-florida-brush-fire-destroys-cars-at-airport

October through May is Florida's normal dry season, but this year is drier than usual due to low rainfall and record-high temperatures.


So, rainfall amounts may register close to normal, but the extra warm temperatures still dry out the land. Same as is happening in California and the West, in general.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 04 Apr 2020, 17:50:36

jedrider wrote:While California had a March Miracle wet season, Florida seems to be in drought after this winter:

Florida Brush Fire Destroys at Least 100 Cars at Airport
https://weather.com/news/news/2020-04-04-florida-brush-fire-destroys-cars-at-airport

October through May is Florida's normal dry season, but this year is drier than usual due to low rainfall and record-high temperatures.


So, rainfall amounts may register close to normal, but the extra warm temperatures still dry out the land. Same as is happening in California and the West, in general.

Is that just down to poor maintenance, letting scrub grow so close to a car park!
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 14:24:06

Since we're heading for (or are already in?) another great(-er?) depression, it seems only appropriate that we have a dust bowl to go along with it:


Climate-Driven Megadrought is Emerging in Western US, Study Says

https://phys.org/news/2020-04-climate-d ... stern.html

With the western United States and northern Mexico suffering an ever-lengthening string of dry years starting in 2000, scientists have been warning for some time that climate change may be pushing the region toward an extreme long-term drought worse than any in recorded history.

A new study says the time has arrived: a megadrought as bad or worse than anything even from known prehistory is very likely in progress, and warming climate is playing a key role.

The study, based on modern weather observations, 1,200 years of tree-ring data and dozens of climate models, appears this week in the leading journal Science.

... "We're no longer looking at projections, but at where we are now. We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts."

Lamont climatologist Richard Seager was one of the first to predict, in a 2007 paper, that climate change might eventually push the region into a more arid climate during the 21st century; he speculated at the time that the process might already be underway. By 2015, when 11 of the past 14 years had seen drought, Benjamin Cook led a followup study projecting that warming climate would cause the catastrophic natural droughts of prehistory to be repeated by the latter 21st century. A 2016 study coauthored by several Lamont scientist reinforced those findings. Now, says Cook, it looks like they may have underestimated.

"It's already happening," he said.

Tucked into the researchers' data: the 20th century was the wettest century in the entire 1200-year record. It was during that time that population boomed, and that has continued.

"The 20th century gave us an overly optimistic view of how much water is potentially available," said Cook. "It goes to show that studies like this are not just about ancient history. They're about problems that are already here."

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/314
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 14:46:20

Well, I was wondering. The March Miracle occurred for the entire Northwest.

Colorado Snow Pack & Reservoir Storage in Good Shape Heading into April
https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/colorado-snow-pack-reservoir-storage-in-good-shape-heading-into-april/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 15:02:03

dohboi wrote:Since we're heading for (or are already in?) another great(-er?) depression, it seems only appropriate that we have a dust bowl to go along with it:


Climate-Driven Megadrought is Emerging in Western US, Study Says


Maybe it's time to dust off those NAWAPA project plans. My wife's family in Prince George, British Columbia won't be very happy at seeing their city flooded though! :) https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ni ... saved-amer
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 15:25:38

You can read it here, too:

Warming makes US West megadrought worst in modern age
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/california/story/2020-04-16/study-warming-makes-us-west-megadrought-worst-in-modern-age

It's not just the 'megadrought', it is also the rising temperatures that will make it unprecedented for us, say California, for instance, in modern or colonial times. We have 3000 year old Sequoia trees here in California. They may not survive.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 18:05:05

The Snow pack that feeds the Colorado river is very close to average this year but the major reservoirs Powell and lake Meade still have not recovered from previous years drought. Both are less then half full so can take in all the snow melt that will come shortly.
I have wondered how having Las Vegas almost completely shut down will effect water withdrawals for the city. But doing the math on 42 million visitors at say 400 gallons per visit it only comes to less then one percent of the yearly required releases from Lake Meade.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 18:57:21

I was wondering the other day how all the increased hand washing is working out on global water supplies. LOL. I was also wondering about how many are turning obsessive compulsive? You know the washing of the hands over and over and still feeling infected.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 03:10:58

dohboi wrote:Since we're heading for (or are already in?) another great(-er?) depression, it seems only appropriate that we have a dust bowl to go along with it:


Climate-Driven Megadrought is Emerging in Western US, Study Says

https://phys.org/news/2020-04-climate-d ... stern.html

You really like to disseminate good news, don't you? :-D
In the past I was in "save civilization" camp.
As time passes and I observe mindless environmental decisions, intellectual collapse of First World in general and clowns in politics I have firmly moved to the camp "screw it - not much is worth saving there anyway".
So lets the Rome burn.

I don't wish people bad but I genuinely believe that statistically they will benefit in medium to long term once our civilization, political and social structures and 99%+ of industry is gone and gone for good.

And a dieoff will benefit survivors too. Lets hope that there will be some of those.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 06:27:43

I am not so optimistic for the benefits of political and social structures with a hard collapse. This is why I feel it is important the degree and duration of decline is minimized. I say minimized so this means I feel a degree of degrowth policy is called for. The amount of degrowth and how quick is tricky becuase of the unknown consequences of abandonment and dysfunction that creeps into vital systems. It is kind of like old age and health issues. You have to get used to it in acceptance which then drives a behavioral change of more proactive behavior to manage health decline that is unavoidable. The acceptance that decline is unavoidable would jumpstart this process. Yet, at the other end let's not get a collapse idealism becuase collapse could leave people and the environment very much destroyed with recovery much longer off. Many environmentalist and social change people sometimes throw their hands up and say let the place burn because there is no hope. A managed decline with degrowth adapted behavior along with a behavior of acceptance is preferable plus a realization it takes patience.

I am not sure if some of this thinking can be embrace with this pandemic induced recession but some of this thinking is going to be forced on those who believe in growth. I can't see how growth can ever return to what is was over the last 2 decades yet it does not have to be as destructive a situation. If this forced recession is approach in an enlightened way then society can regroup in areas that were poor policy and behavior. It is similar to people living on the coast with climate prone problems. Sooner or later a bad location is adapted becuase the climate reality does not allow the old behavior. Let’s get real and means test areas of behavior and policy now that there will not be the money to save everything post-pandemic. This is the acceptance of triage policy.

This is the right time on several levels. Financially Wallstreet needs to shrink. Consumerism in retail needs to adapt. Mega malls of pushing unneeded consumption must adapt. Food systems should go more local by policy with a rejection of global supply chains as the price benchmark. Education needs to adapt with more focus on what fits a world in decline with skill sets instead of expensive knowledge building exercises some of which is not going to be used real world. The manufacture of things needs to be adapted. Do we need so many choices with products? Do we need a car culture to the extent we have it? Travel should be changed. Mindless leisure needs to adapt. Some things working good regardless of the pandemic and economic decline need to be left alone or strengthened. In this case I would point to efforts at localism with people coming together to do more at the community level.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 06:31:22

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
dohboi wrote:Since we're heading for (or are already in?) another great(-er?) depression, it seems only appropriate that we have a dust bowl to go along with it:


Climate-Driven Megadrought is Emerging in Western US, Study Says

https://phys.org/news/2020-04-climate-d ... stern.html

You really like to disseminate good news, don't you? :-D
In the past I was in "save civilization" camp.
As time passes and I observe mindless environmental decisions, intellectual collapse of First World in general and clowns in politics I have firmly moved to the camp "screw it - not much is worth saving there anyway".
So lets the Rome burn.

I don't wish people bad but I genuinely believe that statistically they will benefit in medium to long term once our civilization, political and social structures and 99%+ of industry is gone and gone for good.

And a dieoff will benefit survivors too. Lets hope that there will be some of those.


Red pill works. Welcome to the dark side of truth.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 19 May 2020, 01:18:15

More on the above:

Dust bowl conditions of 1930s US now more than twice as likely to reoccur

Climate breakdown means conditions that wrought devastation across Great Plains could return to region

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... eat-plains
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dirtyharry » Tue 19 May 2020, 04:34:09

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 19 May 2020, 06:21:54

dohboi wrote:More on the above:

Dust bowl conditions of 1930s US now more than twice as likely to reoccur

Climate breakdown means conditions that wrought devastation across Great Plains could return to region

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... eat-plains
While it may get as dry as during the dust bowel it will not be the same conditions. In the thirties farmers were tilling every field every year leaving no sod to hold the soil against wind erosion. Methods today include no-till farming and straw and other plant waste is left on the fields as mulch.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 19 May 2020, 06:55:31

vtsnowedin wrote:
dohboi wrote:More on the above:

Dust bowl conditions of 1930s US now more than twice as likely to reoccur

Climate breakdown means conditions that wrought devastation across Great Plains could return to region

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... eat-plains
While it may get as dry as during the dust bowel it will not be the same conditions.


It is likely different also becuase we have a new climate regime. We are seeing wet and dry periods in extreme happening in succession at times. This has been particularly hard on the wildfire situation. Wet driving vegetative load then hot dry creating lots of fuel. The human component is significant too. The fact that wild fires have been prevented for a generation means changed biota making fires worse.

Agriculture practices have made it less likely for a dust bowl but not much for adaptability to climate change. Ideally the great plains pre-contact with grasslands that are drought tolerant with herds of buffalo made the optimum longer-term producers of food calories and a stable environmental system. It is a shame man does not make an attempt to adapt this earlier system to his advantage. Large areas of the great plains could revert back to open grasslands and managed. This is just another example of the brittle situation of the status quo and it food chain. Permaculture efforts should be increased significantly but instead it will only be the high tech kinds that get the majority of the investments.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby C8 » Tue 19 May 2020, 12:16:37

REAL Green wrote:
We are seeing wet and dry periods in extreme happening in succession at times.

Agriculture practices have made it less likely for a dust bowl but not much for adaptability to climate change.


Isn't building more reservoirs the typical way to intertwine these two issues? Is that happening? I don't know of the costs comparison of reservoirs vs. groundwater pumping. But I suspect much of the wet season over-spill just goes to the ocean. It might be better to start making more reservoirs if the climate becomes more unstable.
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