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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby EdwinSm » Wed 15 May 2019, 23:36:58

North Korea has said it is suffering its worst drought in 37 years
BBC wrote:...the UN said that up to 10 million North Koreans were "in urgent need of food assistance".

North Koreans had been surviving on just 300g (10.5 oz) of food a day so far this year, the UN report said.

In the 1990s, a devastating famine is believed to have killed hundreds of thousands of North Koreans.

There is no indication as yet that this drought will be as severe, but it follows a slew of warnings about poor harvests and crop damage across the country.....
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-48290957
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 09 Jul 2019, 13:13:53

Semi-Arid Land in China expanded in Recent Decades; Will Continue to Expand

https://phys.org/news/2019-07-semi-arid ... cades.html

Drylands cover approximately 50% of the land surface in China, among which semi-arid regions are the main dryland type. However, these semi-arid regions have undergone continuous expansion and a significant drying trend in recent decades, which increases the risk of land degradation and deterioration in China.

Studies have shown that semi-arid regions dominate the coverage of drylands in northern China, which have experienced the largest warming and significant expansion during the last 60 years. The climate in expanded semi-arid regions has become drier and warmer, particularly in the newly formed semi-arid areas, and the drying trend is strongly associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. The intensity of the regional temperature response over these regions has been amplified by land-atmosphere interactions and human activities, and the decadal to interdecadal climate variation in semi-arid regions is regulated by oceanic oscillations. Dust-cloud-precipitation interactions may have altered semi-arid precipitation by affecting the local energy and hydrological cycles.

"In the 21st century, semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand. It will increase the challenges in dealing with desertification, food security and water supply."

Jianping Huang et al, Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2019)

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Before and After Photos: Drought Wipes Chilean Lake From the Map


https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/image ... o-dries-up
https://www.geek.com/news/before-and-af ... p-1779472/

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Chile Suffers the Worst Drought in 60 Years


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/ ... 49467.html

Central Chile is suffering the worst drought in 60 years. That includes the capital Santiago, home to nearly half the country's population of 18 million.

Experts predict climate change, over-exploitation by agriculture and other factors means the shortage of water will be permanent.

Chile's populated capital Santiago, as well as the Valparaiso region, could be left without drinking water by 2030.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 11 Jul 2019, 20:06:39

We are currently in a low rainfall epoch and can expect more below-normal monsoons for next few years


The monsoon is a very robust system. If you take the last 150 years of observation data, you find that monsoon has not changed much in terms of all-India average rainfall. But there are regional changes. For example, Chhattisgarh and parts of Odisha are getting less rain whereas Maharashtra, parts of Karnataka, Gujarat, J&K and some other places are getting more rainfall.

Monsoon also has a large multi-decadal oscillation that’s well proven. This cycle spans around 60 years encompassing epochs of low and high rainfall. In some decades you will have more droughts. We are currently in a low epoch and can expect more below-normal monsoons for the next few years. Monsoons in the 1990s were good. But 2000 onwards, it again started going down. We have had drought years in 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2016.

In the coming years, how is global warming expected to impact the monsoon?

The total quantum of rainfall is not expected to change. During the 122 days of the monsoon season, we do not have rain all the time. Monsoon goes through active and break spells.

What we have found is that the length of the dry spells is increasing.

So, instead of eight days of dry weather, we may have ten days in future. And since the total quantum of rainfall is not changing much, this means that when it rains, it rains very heavily. The number of rainy days may reduce.

This finding is very robust and has implications for agriculture. Farmers will have to think of storing water in tanks, ponds, etc during rainy spells and use this water during the dry periods.

IMD’s monsoon forecasts over the past five years have been consistently more optimistic than actual rainfall. Does it have a positive bias?

I’m not sure about the bias. Being a statistical model, there will be a bias. But whether it is positive or negative, I can’t say.


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blo ... few-years/

This is what most of the world is predicted to face in ever increasing extremes with increasing GW. Rains, when they fall, will be ever more intense and devastating, bringing ever worse flooding and washing away crops and other flora. Droughts in between these ever-more-intense deluges will be ever longer and deeper, also destroying crops and desiccating, weakening and killing other plants and trees (those that hadn't been washed away in the last deluge). What ever survives will be weaker and less able to withstand the next even more extreme deluge, roots weakened by drought failing to hold plants and trees in place.

This is the basic process (though there are a variety of others) responsible for wiping out so much of terrestrial life during the earlier GW-induced mass extinction events...once the plants go, the animal life that depended on them inevitably go, too. For scholarly articles about this, see the reference section of the very well researched book Six Degrees, though it is now getting a bit long in the tooth. Maybe it's time for Lynas or someone else to write an update??
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 16:40:15

Drought In The World’s Largest Temperate Rainforest?

https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2019/07 ... w0garR0SAA


Since early 2018, the southern portion of Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, the largest intact temperate rainforest in the world, has experienced moderate to extreme drought. This has wide-ranging consequences on drinking water supplies, electricity costs, salmon habitat and forest health.

The drought has become so extreme that in June, the National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for Juneau—a caution many local residents have never seen. The warning was issued due to low humidity, dry fuels and strong winds that could result in extreme fire behavior.



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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 24 Jul 2019, 11:28:56

East Africa faces drought from India's more efficient agriculture:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-glob ... SKCN1UH1V0
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 11:54:40

Per the article Dohboi, just shared:

environmental risks from human activities are becoming increasingly complex and interconnected, with far-reaching consequences for food production and livelihoods.

For example, evaporation and subsequent moisture flows from large-scale irrigated farming in India contribute up to 40% of rainfall in East Africa, according to the paper.

“If communities in India improve sustainable agriculture practices (reducing irrigation and groundwater depletion), then pastoralists and farmers in Africa could suffer,” it warned, calling the situation “a delicate dilemma”.


Here is another example, though this one combines drought and likely human complicity:

Missing Mekong waters rouse suspicions of China
https://www.yahoo.com/news/missing-meko ... 53291.html

BAN NONG CHAN, Thailand, July 25 (Reuters) - By this time of year, the Mekong River should have been rising steadily with the monsoon rains, bringing fishermen a bounty of fat fish.

Instead, the river water in Thailand has fallen further than anyone can remember and the only fish are tiny.

Scientists and people living along the river fear the impact of the worst drought in years has been exacerbated by upstream dams raising the prospect of irreversible change on the river that supports one of Southeast Asia's most important rice-growing regions.

A Chinese promise to release more dam water to ease the crisis has only raised worries over the extent to which the river's natural cycles - and the communities that have depended on it for generations - have been forever disrupted.

"Now China is completely in control of the water," said Premrudee Deoruong of Laos Dam Investment Monitor, an environmental group.


In the northeastern Thai province of Nakhon Phanom, where the now sluggish river forms the border with Laos, the measured depth of the Mekong fell below 1.5 metres this week. The average depth there for the same time of year is 8 metres.


The collapse in the water level is partly due to drought - with rainfall during the past 60 days more than 40 percent below normal for the time of year.


The collapse in the water level is partly due to drought - with rainfall during the past 60 days more than 40 percent below normal for the time of year.

But it is also because dams upstream cut off water just when it was most needed. China's Jinghong hydropower station said in early July it was more than halving the flow rate for "grid maintenance" on what China calls the Lancang River.


It is just the kind of nightmare feared by the countries downstream - Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam - where tens of millions of people rely on a river that gave rise to the region's ancient kingdoms.

Facing water shortages in cities and fields, Thailand has told farmers to stop planting more rice.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jul 2019, 19:36:24

Wow! Thanks, Az!
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 06 Aug 2019, 05:27:16

https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... ay-experts

Extreme water stress affects a quarter of the world's population, say experts



...The global research organisation compared the water available to the amount withdrawn for homes, industries, irrigation and livestock.

In the 17 countries facing extremely high water stress, agriculture, industry, and municipalities were found to be using up to 80% of available surface and groundwater in an average year. When demand rivals supply, even small dry spells, which are set to increase because of the climate crisis, can produce dire consequences...
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California Drought

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 14 Aug 2019, 10:45:06

The environmental gadflies who jump from crisis to crisis fail to acknowledge our climate is largely doing what it has always done, cycling, oscillating. Instead of seeing this as normal, the gadflies cry doom every time the weather deviates from the statistical normal, a normal that exists only on a meteorologists spread sheet. Drought and deluge are part of normal. For California, fire, rain and mud are normal.

Residents in drought: 0
https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/california
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Re: California Drought

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 14 Aug 2019, 13:10:40

jawagord wrote:The environmental gadflies who jump from crisis to crisis fail to acknowledge our climate is largely doing what it has always done, cycling, oscillating. Instead of seeing this as normal, the gadflies cry doom every time the weather deviates from the statistical normal, a normal that exists only on a meteorologists spread sheet. Drought and deluge are part of normal. For California, fire, rain and mud are normal.

Residents in drought: 0
https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/california


The problem with California, currently, is not drought, although that is always in the background (and these wet years do not really make up for the pumping of the ground reserves, which is a man-made underground 'drought').

However, the rising temperatures along with this typical variation in rainfall totals from year to year is changing the entire California ecosystem currently and that is all about a climate that is changing.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 14 Aug 2019, 13:16:23

Currently, all my oak trees are dropping their leaves with a sticky sap on them. I've never seen this happen like this in all the forty years that I've lived surrounded by oak trees. I think it starts with a fungus that has just gone out of control and, evidently, there are not enough of an ecosystem of insects to control this (still researching the cause, though). What is clear, to me, is that fungi take over when other life forms start having a tough going because of climate change.
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