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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 24 Jul 2018, 02:06:14

NETHERLANDS DROUGHT RECORD SOON TO BE BROKEN
By Janene Pieters on July 23, 2018 - 09:30
https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/23/netherlan ... oon-broken
Image

This summer is fast becoming the driest summer the Netherlands ever had. It seems almost certain that the drought record dating from the summer of 1976 will be broken in the coming days, meteorologist Brian Verhoeven of Buienradar said to RTL Nieuws.

There is still no prospect of significant rain in the coming days, and the precipitation deficit will therefore continue to rise. Some rain may fall from Thursday, but not enough to end the drought. Multiple water saving measures have already been implemented across the Netherlands.

Also in terms of temperatures, no relief is in sight. From Tuesday maximums will climb higher and higher, with 35 degrees Celsius expected on Thursday. A national heatwave is almost certain. As soon as temperatures climb above 30 degrees in De Bilt for three days - a very good chance of this happening by Thursday - there is an official national heatwave.

Here too a record may be broken. The longest national heatwave in the Netherlands now stands at 18 days. If De Bilt counts three days above 30 degrees on Thursday, that will be day 12 of the heatwave....
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 20:38:28

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Aug 2018, 16:57:03

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... river.html

'When you see me, cry:' European droughts reveal hidden 15th century 'hunger stone' messages carved into river rocks

Boulders known as 'hunger stones' are reappearing in the Elbe River
River that begins in Czech Republic then crosses Germany into the North Sea
One message carved in 1616 used to warn people that hard times were coming


I like to think of the Env forum at POForums as kind of a big digital hunger stone! :-D :shock:
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 09:31:18

Drought in Europe Summer 2018: crisis management in an orderly chaos

https://www.farm-europe.eu/blog-en/drou ... rly-chaos/

DWD says no precipitation in sight (in german).
https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_ ... /10/5.html
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 06 Oct 2018, 04:26:59

MEGA DROUGHT IN CENTRAL EUROPE 2018

Image


Outlook : bad
Image
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Germany cannot feed its people or animals water=food situation critical if drought goes on next year and so on.

Germanys drought <=> California drought
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 13:41:42

Thanks for the maps, MBS. How bad is it in your particular area?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 16:27:27

dohboi wrote:Thanks for the maps, MBS. How bad is it in your particular area?



Drought affected about 90% of German territory in 2018
September 18, 2018, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Heat and Drought in Europe

Also other regions of Europe suffered from the extreme drought and heat. In Southwest Spain and South Portugal, the highest daily temperatures often exceeded 45°C. Unusually high temperatures and drought also were recorded temporarily in the South and Southeast of England. Sometimes, warm air flows even reached the North of Scandinavia.

In the latest report of CEDIM, the heat and drought of 2018 are explained by a large-area flow pattern that prevailed above Europe for months and was associated with constant high pressure above the North of the continent. In spite of some variations in spring and summer, this flow pattern constantly regenerated itself. In case of such a dominating general weather situation, Atlantic low-pressure zones with cool and cloudy air and precipitation hardly reach central Europe.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-09-drought-a ... y.html#jCp
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River Rhein near record low 0,69 m October 2018
https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/rheinland ... z-100.html
September 2018
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... friday-wsv

IT MUST RAIN NORMAL in 2019 OR WE ALL PAY THE PRICE
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 14:49:42

M_B_S wrote:MEGA DROUGHT IN CENTRAL EUROPE 2018

Image


Outlook : bad
Image
*******************
Germany cannot feed its people or animals water=food situation critical if drought goes on next year and so on.

Germanys drought <=> California drought



Looks to me as if the drought is mostly in Western Europe with minor outbreaks trailing into central Europe. The European subcontinent is very broad west to east, calling anything in Germany or France central is a gross mistatement of the actual dimensions. If you actually split it into three equal areas west to east then Russia to the Urals would be east, Beylorus and Poland would be central and the parts west of Poland western.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 16:09:58

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 26 Oct 2018, 05:54:31


'Big dry' drags on as Australia sets up drought-proof fund


Australia is setting up a billion-dollar fund to "future proof" the country against droughts, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Friday, as farmers struggle with a 'big dry' forecast set to continue for months.

... The drought, coupled with damaging frost in some areas, is set to produce the smallest winter grain crop in 10 years, according to a forecast from Rabobank, a specialist agribusiness bank.

"The 2018/19 winter crop will go down as one of the worst in eastern Australia's history," it said in a report this week.

The Bureau of Meteorology meanwhile forecast that the next three months would be drier and warmer than average, meaning "a low chance of recovery for drought-affected areas of eastern Australi
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 26 Oct 2018, 15:45:58

Drought-hit Rhine Forces Germany to Tap Oil Reserves

The German government on Friday said it had authorised the release of strategic fuel reserves after record-low water levels in the drought-hit Rhine river badly disrupted oil shipments in recent weeks

Among those worst hit by delivery problems because of the reduced river traffic has been Frankfurt's busy international airport, as well as the city of Cologne and the western states of Hesse, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland Palatinate.

By law, Germany may tap its oil product reserves "to relieve a local crisis situation".

According to Wirtschaftswoche magazine, it is only the fourth time in 40 years the government has taken this step.

Months of scarce rainfall and hot sunny weather have driven water levels on the Rhine to historic lows, forcing barges to halt services or dramatically reduce their cargo to stay afloat.
On Friday, Cologne measured a water level of just 73 centimetres (29 inches).

The ongoing dry spell has prompted industrial giant Thyssenkrupp to cut back production at its Duisburg plant because of a reduced supply of raw materials.

Chemicals giant BASF has likewise grappled with "limited deliveries" to its Ludwigshafen factory, while energy group RWE is struggling to supply its Hamm power plant with coal.

Other rivers in Germany have suffered too, with levels on the Elbe leading to Hamburg also dangerously low.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Thu 01 Nov 2018, 12:08:55

Here's another article about the drought:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amer ... SKCN1LN2AY
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 03 Jan 2019, 14:22:54

This article from the Economist is on our front page but I thought it deserved a bump here. It discusses the water situation in aindia and China and promotes a book on the same issue.

To my mind it really points to the problem of over population and how the Green Revolution has set us up for a horrible disaster. Eventually.

https://www.economist.com/books-and-art ... -and-china
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 03 Feb 2019, 20:47:18

Beyond Drought: 7 States Rebalance Their Colorado River Use as Global Warming Dries the Region


On Thursday night, Arizona joined other states that share the river basin in agreeing to voluntary water conservation plans. Its legislature approved a plan that helps balance the state's competing water rights with of those of California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, along with Native American tribes and Mexico. The states faced a Jan. 31 deadline for completing interstate contingency plans on water rights; without them, federal officials could order mandatory cuts later this year. Only a California water district had yet to agree.
...
A 2018 study used hydrology models to tease out what was causing the reduced runoff. It blamed a little more than half of the decline on unprecedented regional warming, which melted the snowpack and increased water use by plants. The rest was due to lower snowfall in four key pockets of Colorado where most of the water originates.

Model simulations run by Keith Musselman of the University of Colorado for a 2017 study indicated that some Western mountains could be expected to lose 10 percent of their mountain snowpack for every 1 degree Celsius of warming. (The models simulated flows in the Southern Sierra Nevada.)

A third application of advanced models across six mountainous regions of the West saw global warming driving the snowline — the altitude where snow falls above, but rain below — significantly higher up the slopes. Rain runs off immediately, while snow is stored until spring or summer.

The results "overwhelmingly indicate" the vulnerability of snowpack to a warmer climate," wrote the authors, from the University of Utah. ...

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/3101 ... tion-plans
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 11:41:48

Seems California’s climate change induced “1000 year drought” has ended early, made it to 7 years, which would seem to be a “normal” weather pattern for California? Another doomer scare scenario bites the dust, bring on the next doom!

California is drought-free for the first time since Dec. 20, 2011, said the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, which jointly produces the monitor with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“The state had experienced some form of drought for 376 consecutive weeks,” the center tweeted.

The state came close to being drought-free in soggy 2017 when it was whittled down to less than 9 percent of the state and then-Gov. Jerry Brown lifted an emergency declaration intended to conserve water.


https://www.chicoer.com/2019/03/14/moni ... et-winter/

Greenhouse gases trapped in the upper atmosphere mirror the natural climatic forces of some ancient droughts that lasted for 1,000 years, UCLA researchers say in a Scientific Reports study released Thursday.

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/09 ... r-drought/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 17:08:17

I did not want to get on the sky is falling band wagon over the California drought and to be fair about it I don't want to jump on "It snowed so it's over" band wagon either. This maybe just a one or two year pause in a longer term trend so I will enjoy the higher lake levels etc. but not presume that it is over for a couple of years yet.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 17:30:53

Newfie wrote:
To my mind it really points to the problem of over population and how the Green Revolution has set us up for a horrible disaster. Eventually.



Sorry I don't have a link but my recollection is that one of the architects of the Green Revolution saw it as a way to buy time to deal with the population growth problem. Of course we did no such thing and the Green Revolution has simply enabled us to keep growing to the 7.5+ billion people that we currently have on this planet.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 01 May 2019, 21:21:01


Global Warming Was Already Fueling Droughts in Early 1900s, Study Shows


https://insideclimatenews.org/news/0105 ... arvel-cook

Global warming has been fueling droughts since the early 20th Century, when soils started drying out at the same time across parts of North and Central America, Eurasia, Australia and the Mediterranean, new research shows.

The researchers say the surprising early-century findings provide the clearest signal yet that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are changing the hydroclimate in ways that can devastate agriculture, health and livelihoods.

...

"What we're seeing is very suggestive of a role for greenhouse gases, bigger than anything we've seen previously," Marvel said. "We're not arguing here that there is a really large effect. What we're saying is, we're picking out the underlying note against the background of a symphony. That note is faint but it's definitely there. And to find it, you need to look at long-term trends and wide areas."
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 05 May 2019, 18:43:31

Drought Affects Panama Canal Shipping

https://learningenglish.voanews.com/amp ... 00861.html

.
.. Carlos Vargas is the vice president of environment and water for the Canal Authority. He said recently that Gatun — one of the largest artificial lakes in the world – was 1.4 meters below normal levels for this time of year. It has dropped more than 0.2 meters since early April. A smaller lake that also supplies the waterway, Alajuela, was 2.2 meters below usual.

“These low levels in the Panama Canal are the product of four or five months of almost zero precipitation,” Vargas told The Associated Press. “It really has been the driest dry season we’ve had in the history of the canal. The flow of rivers to the lake is down 60%.”

The Canal Authority had to restrict how deeply ships can reach below the surface. That means large ships, mainly from the United States and China, must pass through with less cargo.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 06 May 2019, 15:21:39

dohboi wrote:Drought Affects Panama Canal Shipping

https://learningenglish.voanews.com/amp ... 00861.html

.
.. Carlos Vargas is the vice president of environment and water for the Canal Authority. He said recently that Gatun — one of the largest artificial lakes in the world – was 1.4 meters below normal levels for this time of year. It has dropped more than 0.2 meters since early April. A smaller lake that also supplies the waterway, Alajuela, was 2.2 meters below usual.

“These low levels in the Panama Canal are the product of four or five months of almost zero precipitation,” Vargas told The Associated Press. “It really has been the driest dry season we’ve had in the history of the canal. The flow of rivers to the lake is down 60%.”

The Canal Authority had to restrict how deeply ships can reach below the surface. That means large ships, mainly from the United States and China, must pass through with less cargo.


That is why we should have spent the extra money to make it a sea level canal instead of being dependant on fainfall. Sure it would have doubled the price tag and added three or possibly four years to construction, but once it was done widening and deepening for more modern ships would be a trivial expense like it is for the Suez canal in Africa. Instead first the French, then the US and now China have spent collectively billions and billions on a route that can be crippled by drought or natural disaster. Even a military attack that takes out the earthen dam would serve to close the canal for years.

Humans, short term thinking and penny pinching keep bighting us in the behind but we never learn.
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