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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: +++Germany 2017 Extreme Drought+++

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 25 Jun 2017, 20:40:51

Thanks
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 29 Jun 2017, 22:04:32

Drought conditions in the Dakotas and Northern Montana are worsening fast, threatening wheat crops.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Bloomberg: “The wheat varieties that trade on U.S. commodity exchanges are diverging sharply in price. Spring wheat is fetching a growing premium to the winter classes grown in the Great Plains and Midwest, with the spread against hard red winter wheat futures reaching a nine-year high. That’s because the spring crop, which still has several weeks left to develop, is in poor shape as drought conditions persist in northern states.”

From Eric Holthaus (sciencebyericholthau newsletter) today:

“There’s a quickly worsening drought right now in the upper Midwest. In just the last week, “extreme” drought expanded from 7.7 percent to 25.1 percent of North Dakota, the hardest-hit state. And next week, a multi-day heat wave is on the way. It’s expected to reach as high as 107 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the Dakotas, more than 20 degrees above normal.

Why does that matter? For one, it might seriously affect this year’s wheat harvest there.

Wheat is humanity’s most important grain food source, the United States is the world’s largest wheat exporter, and the Dakotas and Montana are now the most important wheat growing region of the United States. Wheat prices have already gone up more than 10 percent in just the past few weeks in response to the drought. This year’s American wheat crop is currently rated the worst in 29 years..."
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 08:33:55


As lakes run dry in Chennai, residents are desperate for a few buckets of water.

Desperate search for water

Even before the onset of summer, it was anticipated that there would be great difficulty in maintaining regular water supply to Chennai. When water levels in the four lakes fall, MetroWater usually taps into the Veeranam lake in Cuddalore district to make up for the shortfall. But this large lake has also run dry. This prompted MetroWater officials to extract water from the Wallajah lake, also in Cuddalore. But the use of these rural lakes to meet urban needs has infuriated farmers in the district, who say they are being deprived of their water resources.

“We have lived by this lake for decades,” M Anbazhagan, a farmer, told Scroll.in on May 1. “We were not even consulted or informed about our water being directed to Chennai.”


https://scroll.in/article/841914/as-lak ... s-of-water
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 24 Jul 2017, 22:59:44

Drought in High Plains the worst some farmers have ever seen

Drought in North Dakota is laying waste to fields of normally bountiful food and hay crops and searing pastures that typically would be home to multitudes of grazing cattle.

Some longtime farmers and ranchers say it's the worst conditions they've seen in decades — possibly their lifetimes — and simple survival has become their goal as a dry summer drags on without a raincloud in sight...


http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/drou ... s-48656344
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 09:38:31

onlooker wrote:The sequel to overshoot is always die off. An ecological maxim


True as far as it goes, but ecological overshoot is ALWAYS a short lived phenomenon generally of a year or less. In a true overshoot situation the consumer in the ecological equation demands more than the production end of the equation can supply. Reindeer with no predators on an isolated island overshoot and within two years suffer massive population decline from starvation. Bacteria eating sugar jells on a Petri dish have a population crash when the number of cells consuming jell exceed the supply for that generation.

Humans have not exceeded the ability of the ecosystem to sustain our population despite all the predictions to the contrary. Sadly our population has exceeded the level where we eliminate competing ecosystems to grow our own species food, but that is a very different thing.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 11:46:53

Tanada wrote:
onlooker wrote:The sequel to overshoot is always die off. An ecological maxim


True as far as it goes, but ecological overshoot is ALWAYS a short lived phenomenon generally of a year or less. In a true overshoot situation the consumer in the ecological equation demands more than the production end of the equation can supply. Reindeer with no predators on an isolated island overshoot and within two years suffer massive population decline from starvation. Bacteria eating sugar jells on a Petri dish have a population crash when the number of cells consuming jell exceed the supply for that generation.

Humans have not exceeded the ability of the ecosystem to sustain our population despite all the predictions to the contrary. Sadly our population has exceeded the level where we eliminate competing ecosystems to grow our own species food, but that is a very different thing.


On a local level, perhaps, it is a 'short lived phenomenon'. For our global civilization, it could be 30-90 years IMHO. Extinction might not be so quick, but again IMHO, in a thousand years, I doubt if any of us or anyone will have any descendants left at all, and if we did, we are not going to the stars with that level of civilization, so it will only be a matter of time. This single century interval is, of course, completely dependent upon how fast and complete climate change alters our biosphere. We already know how fast mankind is altering the biosphere. It is like dogs peeing on each others waste products. Nature pees last!
(This is completely gut feeling as I am no expert in any of this. So, tell me I'm wrong ;-)
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 13:28:24

Good points, jed.

Also, earlier overshoots mostly involved exploiting resources that were readily available to the current population, and recovery of the local ecosystems could sometimes be quite rapid.

But we are exploiting resource from both the ancient past and, one might say, of both the near and distant future, leaving worlds of pain that will remain polluted, denuded of the once-rich diversity of life, and fundamentally altered, in ways that will last a long, long time, possibly forever (in the sense that they may possibly never fully recover before the sun get so big that it swallows up the earth).
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 26 Jul 2017, 10:23:35

Thirsty City: After Months of Water Rationing Nairobi, Kenya May Run Dry

Image

For the team managing Nairobi’s water, the stakes have never been so high. Water-rationing has been going on in Kenya’s capital since 1 January, and supplies might run dry by September. The last two rainy seasons were dismal; more rain is not expected until October and cannot be counted on.

For the city’s 3.4 million residents, the possibility of the entire city running dry is so beyond their control that most bat the thought away and soldier on, storing water in jerry cans when taps flow. But the problem is getting harder to ignore. On 14 July, Nairobi City County declared a cholera outbreak, citing among causes “irregular supply of potable water”. How bad might this get?

For the last 12 months water has been short. The rains in October–December 2016 delivered just 268mm of water compared to about 700mm expected from rainfall patterns in recent years. Then the March–May rains this year were late. When I visited Ndakaini with colleagues from the World Agroforestry Centre in April, the reservoir was just 20% full, an unprecedented low. We gazed at the exposed mud and, looking towards the city, thought “Who down there knows?”

Image
Ndakaini Reservoir - 15th April 2017 https://mapcarta.com/12714174

Finally, the rains came on 1 May, but delivered just 440mm of the 1,000mm expected during the rainy season. Today the Chania and Sasumua, two rivers that supply the city, resemble streams.

The water available to the city has plummeted. Nairobi’s water company is distributing 400,000 cubic metres a day, 150,000 less than it used to and 350,000 less than the city needs; 60% of the population lacks reliable water. Of 78 public boreholes, only 48 work. “Nairobi used to be a swamp but is no longer behaving like one. Our underground rivers have dried up,” says engineer Lucy Njambi Macharia, Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company (NCWSC) environment manager.

Image
https://www.kenyatalk.com/index.php?thr ... dam.39127/
http://www.rcmrd.org/assessing-the-effe ... echnology/


Satellite Images Trigger Payouts for Kenyan Farmers in Grip of Drought

... “There’s a growing recognition that we need to think a bit more proactively and effectively about how we handle drought. This idea of always acting reactively – to request international support – is being considered as ineffective,” he says.

After three years of poor rains, swaths of the country have had their grazing pasture scorched, leaving animals and humans desperate. Government and humanitarian agencies estimate average livestock losses of 40%-60% in Kenya’s worst-hit north-east and coastal areas. In some places, the figure is as high as 80%.

Across the red plains of Marsabit county, more than 500km north of Nairobi, some communities are reaching breaking point. In Balesa, an assortment of makeshift dwellings where the smell of rotting carcasses hangs in the stifling heat, village elders say 200,000 animals have died since October.
“It is a disaster,” says Bonaya Urthe, a schoolteacher and herder who has lost 460 of his 500 goats. “We expect worse. Because animals are dying at this rate, it means that human death is also near.”

... “It’s the worst drought we’ve ever seen,” says Hussain Fofle, conferring with tribal elders who watch over the village well. Their presence helps prevent conflict, since the exhaustion of neighbouring water sources has forced pastoralists to travel from miles around – often across the Ethiopian border – to fill their jerrycans. Last month, clashes between neighbouring tribes over grazingleft at least 10 people dead in Kom, while last month in Laikipia a British safari guide was shot dead when armed herders invaded his ranch.


Armed herders invade Kenya's most important wildlife conservancy

Image

Theft of livestock turns more deadly as herders and raiders become desperate in drought-hit areas and a ragtag militia tries to restore order
https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... e-in-kenya
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 11:52:41

Romans are about to go eight hours a day without water

Two thousand years ago, Rome could pride itself on having the world’s most advanced aqueducts, exporting the technology throughout Europe and the Middle East. Today, the city is literally running out of water — thanks in part to its crumbling infrastructure.

One-third of the city’s residents are set to have their water supply cut off for eight hours every day, possibly beginning as early as Friday; different neighborhoods will take turns in sharing the burden. It’s an unprecedented move for a major Italian city, said Giampaolo Attanasio, a public infrastructure expert at the advisory firm Ernst & Young. But it may soon be routine.

"Rome could be just the beginning. If the situation doesn’t improve, other large cities will have to ration water as well," Attanasio said in a telephone interview. "Small towns already have."

The main culprit, experts say, is climate change. In 2017, Italy experienced its second-hottest spring in the past 200 years, according to a report by Italy's Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. Spring rainfall decreased by 50 percent compared with the seasonal average, the same report said, and nearby Lake Bracciano, from which the city gets part of its water supply, is drying up at an alarming rate: The water level has fallen by 1 centimeter every single day...


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... 2345525c38
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 17:50:42

https://www.skepticalscience.com/2017-S ... st_30.html

"Loss of Fertile Land Fuels ‘Looming Crisis’ Across Africa"
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 03 Aug 2017, 15:45:25

Study finds human influence in the Amazon's third 1-in-100 year drought since 2005


https://www.skepticalscience.com/human- ... ughts.html
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 18:57:42

South Africa

Welcome to the new normal: Drought crisis takes a new turn in Cape Town


26 September 2017 - 08:35
By Aron Hyman







Cape Town residents are being urged to use only 87 litres per day‚ per person‚ after a record low rainfall winter season left dams at 37.5% full‚ with only 27.5% of that being usable water. File photo.
Image: Gallo Images/iStockphoto
The City of Cape Town is installing 2‚000 water management devices a week at properties owned by water guzzlers to restrict household consumption to 350 litres per day.
The devices will be installed at properties where residents refuse to limit water use. The city‚ reeling from an extensive drought‚ is aiming to reduce total consumption to 500 million litres per day.
Collective consumption currently stands at 622 million litres per day. In February the City was still using more than 800 million litres per day.

Gloomy days await SA despite green shoots
The figures confirm that the agricultural sector is finally out of the woods, but the same cannot be said of manufacturing
Business 8 days ago
Residents are being urged to use only 87 litres per day‚ per person‚ after a record low rainfall winter season left dams at 37.5% full‚ with only 27.5% of that being usable water.
A warm bath‚ now a highly discouraged act of water wastage in the city‚ may be a difficult concept to explain to future generations.
“All residents‚ businesses and other partners must start adapting to the ‘New Normal’ which is a characteristic of a water-scarce city and province such as Cape Town and the Western Cape‚” said Xanthea Limberg‚ the mayoral committee member for water and waste services.
WATCH | This is what 87 litres of water a day looks like

“We will continue to approach this drought crisis with every resource and avenue at our disposal. We need the whole of society to stand with us and to help us to get through this drought‚ but also to start laying the building blocks for a more resilient city over our longer-term future.”
The daily water target does not just apply when you are at home‚ said Limberg‚ but also when you are at work or gym.
The City has also put pressure on businesses to reduce consumption.
Water pressure has also been reduced‚ which could affect high-lying areas. Multi-storey buildings without water pump systems or water tanks could see water shortages on upper floors.

READ MORE:

I want to share my premier-quality spring water‚ Zille tells legislature
Western Cape Premier Helen Zille says she would welcome Capetonians who want to share the water from the R92‚754 purifier at her official residence.
Politics 10 days ago

Beer supply won't dry up in drought‚ brewing giant promises
Science is coming to the rescue of the world’s second largest brewer as drought ravages its barley-producing heartland.
News 10 days ago

Wildlife pays price for politics
"It's devastating. I've been following them every day for the last year," said Dedan Ngatia, a wild dog researcher in Kenya's central Laikipia ...
News 10 days ago

I only shower every third day‚ says proudly oily Zille
Western Cape Premier Helen Zille has revealed that she only showers “briefly” every third day and that she regards “oily hair in a drought to be as ...
Politics 11 days ago








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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 05:29:29

Image

SOUTH AFRICA
Drought: Cape’s day zero looms large

De Lille says the council has introduced the first of three phases
05 October 2017 - 07:55
BY DAVE CHAMBERS

Intermittent water supply‚ followed by having to collect water in buckets under the supervision of soldiers: this is Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille’s vision of the near future if the city’s dams run dry.

After meeting Water and Sanitation Minister Nomvula Mokonyane‚ De Lille outlined the council ’s disaster plan on Wednesday.

She begged Capetonians to save more water‚ warning that day zero — when dams are no longer usable — would arrive in March.

She said it was vital to plan for the worst case scenario‚ saying the city council had activated the first of three Disastermanagement phases....
*********************************************
Yes human mankind its indeed time to plan for the worst case scenario(s) world wide!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... l4KG64tFjE


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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 05:33:28

Disaster, with an i.
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 07:27:09

SeaGypsy wrote:Disaster, with an i.


Was copy paste ...

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south- ... oms-large/
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 11:06:04

SeaGypsy wrote:Disaster, with an i.


It's a Desert-ster, certainly.
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 11:35:40

pstarr wrote:The recent Cal drought lasted 3-4 years, with record rains before and record rains after. (This year was a douzy). How many of those previous 100 year-CO2-anthropomorphic droughts could have been recorded since the industrial age and the rise of CO2? Two does not make a trend.


The heat stress is adding to this and, for instance, reducing the fog coverage and, therefore, the Redwood Forest range to just an teeny-bit of what it was before.
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+++ The Sri Lanka Mega Drought Desaster+++

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 02:01:49

Sri Lanka’s worst drought in 40 years leaves villagers hungry and struggling for work
‘There is no work. Everyone, big or small, has lost out to the drought.’

The worst affected areas are the North Western, North Central, Northern and South Eastern Provinces that rely heavily on agriculture. The UN Office in Colombo said that affected households were in some cases limiting their food intake, which was hampering people’s day-to-day lives.

Eating their seed
Gunathileka, who hails from the North Western Province, said his family was now eating some of the rice that he had put away to use as seed for the next growing season.....
https://scroll.in/article/853041/sri-la ... g-for-work
******************

GW @ 410 ppm CO2 what happens @ 500 ppm ?
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Re: +++ The Sri Lanka Mega Drought Desaster+++

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 09 Oct 2017, 04:39:04

DISASTER
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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 13:05:41

M_B_S wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:Disaster, with an i.


Was copy paste ...

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south- ... oms-large/

Of course, proof reading, with a "p" is impossible.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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