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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 15:27:12

Thailand's Drought Struggle
Many parts of Thailand are in the grip of one of the worst droughts in decades.


http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/thailand ... -struggle/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 22:12:15

http://wlfi.com/2016/06/14/indiana-clim ... is-summer/

Indiana Climate Office: Drought possible this summer
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 10:06:41

Weather Watchers on the Lookout for Flash Drought

Temperature and precipitation conditions in mid-June across the primary crop regions in the United States look similar to the widespread drought year of 2012 when, at the time, there also was little or no concern about drought, a climatologist said Thursday.

Brian Fuchs, climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said as temperatures continue to rise heading into the summer months, climatologists are watching closely for signs of flash drought — often brought on by a drop in precipitation and increased temperatures and winds.

It looks eerily similar to what we saw in 2012 when there was no sign of drought,” Fuchs said. “Right now, we’re not anticipating another 2012.”

Most of the Corn Belt and upper Midwest region have seen temperatures anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in the past 30 days. Some 100-degree temperatures hit the region staring last week in parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas.

High temperatures in May in areas of the Dakotas and Montana and other northern states were in the all-time top 10, Fuchs said. Temps across the rest of the Corn Belt region were in the top 20 all-time.

... “Coupled with the higher temperatures, some areas are starting to stand out” in terms of drought developing, he said. That includes southeastern Kansas and parts of Missouri, Indiana and Illinois.

With precipitation departures in parts of Missouri from 6 inches to 9 inches below normal, along with arriving summer heat, he said climatologists will be keeping close watch on the state.

Temperatures for remainder of 2016 are not encouraging, he said, as the outlook is for most areas of the country to see above-average temps of 2 to 5 degrees. Areas of the upper Midwest, including the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota, are “pushing for well above normal so far,” Fuchs said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 15:42:28

Yeah, that could be a bit of a...problem. More here: http://www.agweb.com/article/corn-belt- ... mmer-blmg/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Jun 2016, 08:28:48

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 165159.htm

Climate change, not population growth, plays the main role in predicting extreme droughts
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 29 Jun 2016, 14:08:39

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/g ... 44626.html

Guatemala drought leaves hundreds of thousands hungry
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 19:18:15

Just to point out, there were killer droughts on Somalia, India, Pakistan, and less lethal but still serious droughts Japan and a number of other places around the world this year. (I'm not going to supply all the links now...just type in the country name and add 'drought' and you'll get plenty of info.)

Really, there's just too much catastrophic news to keep up.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 19:26:42

dohboi wrote:Just to point out, there were killer droughts on Somalia, India, Pakistan, and less lethal but still serious droughts Japan and a number of other places around the world this year. (I'm not going to supply all the links now...just type in the country name and add 'drought' and you'll get plenty of info.)

Really, there's just too much catastrophic news to keep up.
To make an intelligent assessment of that you would have to know how many land areas undergo random droughts in any average year and then compare this years data to the average. There were always some droughts and some of those quite severe if you were trying to live in the effected area. The question is are we getting more net drought area now or is it a wash?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 20:18:54

Good point. Crunch some numbers on that for me, wouldja? :) :)

The thing is that people who don't want to accept that things are changing will not be convinced by such data (those scheming scientists probably cooked the books, after all!), nor will they be convinced by actual events, even when those are happening right around them.

Just as with the specifics, you can go searching for the data yourself. If I bring the data, you (or some denialist anyway) will probably suspect it anyway.

In any case, this is a drought thread, after all, and it is always appropriate to bring up droughts on it, it seems to me. :) And in this El Nino year, shifts in patterns of precipitation were expected to create drought in many areas, and they seem to have done that.

In general, though, with global warming there will be (and already is) an overall increase in water vapor in the atmosphere. So one would expect more extremes in rain events than in droughts. I think the thing that people will notice with droughts is that they are shifting to new areas as Hadley Cells expand. Places that used to get reliable rain will suddenly not get it as reliably, and other places will suddenly get more rain, often more rain than they can handle and more and more often coming in ever more torrential downpours.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 20:35:54

Image

Here's a map of the pattern if increased drought versus increased rainfall.

It looks like increase in drought has hit hardest over this time frame in: India, Sub-Saharan Africa, MENA, much of southern Europe, Eastern Asia parts of Central America, and a few other places. These are among the most populated places on the planet, one might point out.

So far, though, overall global drought has not yet increased perceptibly, not particularly surprising, given what I pointed out about global heating leading to more water vapor in the atmosphere. But the shifts in location of drought evident in the above map can still have locally devastating effects.

http://www.geosci-instrum-method-data-s ... 9-2015.pdf
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 23 Nov 2016, 09:40:04

Bolivia drought


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38073575

have called an end to the school year two weeks early as the country suffers from a severe and prolonged drought.

Three reservoirs which supply the largest city, La Paz, are almost dry, and water rationing is in effect until further notice.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 23 Nov 2016, 14:04:26

Exceptional droughts are pretty much ignored these days. I guess when records are broken again and again, we all get a little bored.

Here is the latest from the US drought monitor Southeast summary:

As reported by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), hundreds (at least 212) new fires have started in the Southeast, with 30 of them classified as large wildfires (100 acres or more), and burn bans were widespread across the region. Streams were at record and near-record low levels. Severe agricultural impacts (stock ponds drying up, winter feed being used to keep cattle alive since fall started) were widespread across the South and Southeast.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 25 Nov 2016, 01:18:19

Thanks for reminding us, GG. That angry red blob (D4) over the southern Appalachians is now about the size of the one in California, and the D3 extreme drought area is much larger.

The only states I can see that are completely free of any drought or drying right now are MI, WI, MN, and Washington state.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 25 Nov 2016, 08:36:53

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 27 Nov 2016, 13:44:09

http://gcaptain.com/towing-giant-bags-w ... t-drought/

(Bloomberg) Auke Piek, a 44-year-old Dutch engineer, says he has a solution to the Caribbean’s worst drought in half a century — and it lies hundreds of miles away in the tropical rain forests of Suriname.

This week, a boat will tow a giant bag made from PVC-coated fabric with enough water to fill an Olympic-size swimming pool from Suriname to drought-stricken Barbados and Curacao. It will be a test run for a technology Piek said he wants to expand to other Caribbean islands, and eventually, as far afield as the Middle East.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 12:55:43

Well, I posted last week on the record setting droughts in the Southeast and now we have America's town burning down.

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 15:52:36

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 16:23:23

I think the salient point is the increasing frequency and severity of drought. Which, if I am correct, is not to be denied.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 16:57:24

pstarr wrote:
Newfie wrote:I think the salient point is the increasing frequency and severity of drought. Which, if I am correct, is not to be denied.

I sure don't deny an increasing chaotic weather regime. I only question its overall severity and consequences.

Barring a runaway event (which IPCC-5 and myself find highly unlikely) these hurricanes, droughts, floods etc are of little importance, nothing compared to runaway human population growth and resource depletion. And will most certainly be mitigated by a homeostatic Earth Mother and peak oil.


Redneck drought? What's that?
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 17:21:02

I think the salient point is the increasing frequency and severity of drought. Which, if I am correct, is not to be denied.


this is from the IPCC SREX report of 2012 on extreme events:

There is not enough evidence at present to suggest high confidence in observed trends in dryness due to lack of direct observations, some geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and some dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. There is medium confidence that since the 1950s some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts (e.g., southern Europe, west Africa) but also opposite trends exist in other regions (e.g., central North America, northwestern Australia).


the US data for the following plot can be found at NOAA under their drought discussion, the Canadian data is from Environment Canada. Not much of a recognizable trend here.
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