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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 07 Mar 2016, 18:44:03

http://phys.org/news/2016-03-impact-cli ... mated.html

Study suggests impact of climate change on agriculture may be underestimated

temperature increases of 1 degree Celsius were associated with substantial decreases in both total crop area and double cropping. In fact, those decreases accounted for 70 percent of the overall loss in production found in the study. Only the remaining 30 percent was attributable to crop yield.


And if that wasn't bad enough: http://phys.org/news/2016-03-plant-supp ... lobal.html

Even plant-supporting soil fungi affected by global warming

So fungi--essential for completing the crucial cycle of death into life--is under assault from both radiation and GW, nor to mention fungicides...
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 14 Mar 2016, 09:32:01

More than 80 per cent of Queensland is currently drought declared after three failed wet seasons in the region.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-14/d ... nd/7243896
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 15 Mar 2016, 21:01:26

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china- ... ght-2016-3

China to release water from dam to alleviate SE Asia drought

...140,000 ha of rice in the Mekong Delta has been damaged by the drought with around 600,000 people facing drinking water shortages...
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 10:28:39

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... ll-over-it

Worst Mediterranean drought in 900 years has human fingerprints all over it

... the recent drought in the Levant region of the eastern Mediterranean is likely worse than any comparable period of the last 900 years....

We know human carbon emissions will warm the world. We know that a warmer world affects precipitation and evaporation and this should affect droughts. We are observing that recent droughts are likely to worst on record. We also know that droughts and other extreme weather events have tremendous societal and economic consequences.
(Such as the current massive refugee crisis.)
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 10:44:52

As the Tropics expand north and south they also encroach on the desert zone, and in turn the desert zones move closer to the poles. It has been expected for a long time the Sahara Desert would migrate north and overtake southern Spain, southern Italy, Greece, and a good chunk of Turkey. People expressing surprise at this either never learned about this effect or completely forgot this was expected.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 11:35:15

" the desert zones move closer to the poles"

Exactly. Not sure who you thought was expressing surprise, but certainly most people don't have much of a clue at this level detail of the likely consequences of GW.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 20 Mar 2016, 14:31:32

Farmlad,

OK, I waded through a couple of your blog entries. I take it you are the author? Sounds like you are working on a book and you have spent a lot of time thinking about this.

I get that you are blaming management, a slightly different phrasing from what others here call "the 1%" or "TPTB".

It should be clear to anyone who has worked in a large organization that management is usually the problem. And that changing manage,nt seldom solves the systemic problems. They can effect things to be sure, but they seldom make a great difference. When they do, like say Jobs, then it's big news, because it is so rare.

You should also know that the universal mantra of management is "grow or die." Which is kinda where we are globally, except that doesn't work at the end S the petro dish.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 20 Mar 2016, 22:40:43

http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Mongol ... s_999.html

Mongolia herders face disaster

Hundreds of thousands of farm animals have perished in a slow-moving natural disaster in Mongolia and the international aid response has been insufficient, the Red Cross said Friday.

Mongolia has been hit by...a hot summer drought followed by a severe winter
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 21 Mar 2016, 14:48:40

http://www.wyofile.com/column/grasshopp ... ing-range/

Grasshoppers thrive on the warming Wyoming range
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 23 Mar 2016, 19:58:40

African Drought

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2 ... d=gigya-tw

Millions in parts of eastern and southern Africa are facing the worst drought in three decades.

Elsewhere:

Palau declares state of emergency over drought


http://phys.org/news/2016-03-palau-decl ... ought.html

Feds expect pressures to mount on Rio Grande

http://www.newschannel10.com/story/3153 ... rio-grande
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 28 Mar 2016, 10:46:52

And in India: "The unthinkable is happening"

The three-month-long summer is barely weeks away but water availability in India’s 91 reservoirs is at its lowest in a decade, with stocks at a paltry 29% of their total storage capacity, according to the Central Water Commission. Some 85% of the country’s drinking water comes from aquifers, but their levels are falling, according to WaterAid.

We are being told that water levels in the Ganges have declined by a fourth. Being located on the banks of one of the world’s largest rivers, we never thought we would face a scarcity of water. The unthinkable is happening.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-35888535
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 30 Mar 2016, 13:29:42

Study: Severe water stress likely in Asia by 2050

Economic and population growth on top of climate change could lead to serious water shortages across a broad swath of Asia by the year 2050, a newly published study by MIT scientists has found.

The study deploys detailed modeling to produce what the researchers believe is a full range of scenarios involving water availability and use in the future. In the paper, the scientists conclude there is a "high risk of severe water stress" in much of an area that is home to roughly half the world's population.

"It's not just a climate change issue," says Adam Schlosser, a senior research scientist and deputy director at MIT's Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and a co-author of the study. "We simply cannot ignore that economic and population growth in society can have a very strong influence on our demand for resources and how we manage them. And climate, on top of that, can lead to substantial magnifications to those stresses."

"For China, it looks like industrial growth [has the greatest impact] as people get wealthier," says Fant. "In India, population growth has a huge effect. It varies by region."

The paper, "Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia," is being published today in the journal PLOS One.


One crop breeding cycle from starvation

URBANA, Ill. - In the race against world hunger, we're running out of time. By 2050, the global population will have grown and urbanized so much that we will need to produce 87 percent more of the four primary food crops - rice, wheat, soy, and maize - than we do today.

At the same time, the climate is projected to change over the next 30 years, with warmer temperatures and more carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Crop plants can adapt to change through evolution, but at a much slower rate than the changes we are causing in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the land available for growing crop plants is unlikely to expand to accommodate the predicted rise in demand. In fact, land suited to food crop production is being lost on a global scale.

"We have to start increasing production now, faster than we ever have. Any innovation we make today won't be ready to go into farmers' fields for at least 20 years, because we'll need time for testing, product development, and approval by government agencies. On that basis, 2050 is not so far off. That's why we say we're one crop breeding cycle away from starvation," says University of Illinois crop scientist Stephen P. Long.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 30 Mar 2016, 13:34:43

Ummm, you don't have to wait till 2050:

Vietnam hit by worst drought in nearly a century


Months of below-average rainfall have conspired to produce the worst drought in Vietnam in the best part of 100 years. It has been reported that the Mekong River is at its lowest level since 1926.

The ongoing El Nino weather pattern is thought to be the main cause of the lack of rainfall affecting the country.

Vietnam is not alone in suffering drought. Neighbouring Cambodia, and Laos, as well as Thailand and Myanmar, have been experiencing water shortages as a result of the weather phenomenon.


http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/v ... 48729.html


Thailand hit by its worst drought in decades


Thailand is in the grip of its worst drought for more than 20 years, with water levels in the country’s biggest dams lower than 10 percent.

The current drought has hit the north hardest, with 22 of Thailand’s 76 provinces affected.

Agriculture has been severely affected, and there are genuine fears that taps could run dry within a matter of weeks. Several major reservoirs in the country are below 50 percent of their water capacity.


http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/t ... 23735.html

(Thanks, as often, to COBob at rs's blog for these links and extracts.)

But, yeah, these kinds of extreme drought events will certainly be getting worse and more seveer in the coming years and decades.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 31 Mar 2016, 09:56:22

Rivers turn to dust as drought bites Somalia


Somalia’s bread basket has become a dust bowl as the life-giving waters of the mighty Shabelle river run dry amid intense drought in the war-torn country.

River-fed farmlands have become parched playgrounds for children who kick footballs beneath a cloudless sky, as one sign among many of the failed rains that the United Nations warns has put more than a million people at risk.

Elders in the Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, where most people rely on farming for survival, said it is the first time in decades they have seen such water shortages in the river.

“I have never dreamt of finding myself walking inside the river,” said Adow Amin, a resident in Afgoye town, just outside the capital Mogadishu, an area famous for its banana production.


http://phys.org/news/2016-03-rivers-dro ... a.html#jCp
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 01 Apr 2016, 13:13:54

And so it begins...

Drought-starved peasants asking for food are gunned down by police in the Philippines

Hunger pangs of starving farmers met by a barrage of bullets

On the morning of April 1, 2016 police forces opened fire at some 5,000 farmers and indigenous Lumad demanding relief and subsidies for farm communities who have been intensely affected by the El Nino dry spell in Kidapawan City.

350 Pilipinas condemns the violent dispersal of protesting farmers, which has resulted in the death of three and 87 missing, by the combined forces of the police and army in Kidapawan province of North Cotabato, this morning.

Around 5,000 farmers and indigenous peoples held a human barricade at the local National Food Authority (NFA) since March 30, 2016 to demand the immediate release of 15,000 sacks of rice to alleviate hunger brought about by crop failures due to three long months of drought...

The conditions that prompted the 3-day blockade gives us a glimpse of what’s ahead if decisive and just actions in addressing climate change, remains in the periphery.
Last edited by dohboi on Fri 01 Apr 2016, 13:19:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 01 Apr 2016, 13:19:29

Oh boy my wife, will not like this. This is from her home country. So terribly sad
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 01 Apr 2016, 13:49:33

Here is link to the post of drought in the Philippines that D, referenced. http://thestandard.com.ph/news/headline ... rmers.html
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 17:32:07

Thank, ol. And yes, this is terribly sad.

Meanwhile, back stateside, dryness expanded greatly in the SE Plains and SW Midwest, as well as in the Deep South.

Spots of actual drought popped up or expanded in KA, OK, TX and NM.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndDa ... rison.aspx

Still looking like a very hot summer throughout the lower 48, by the way. Will this help wake the populace up to the reality of GW? (But it looks like a cold winter coming up for those of us in the north country.)

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 02 Apr 2016, 22:11:19

It drives me a bit batty that the projections abruptly begin and end at the borders between Mexico, USA, Canada. It would be more useful and present a much fuller picture of what is going on if the full contours were shown without the arbitrary human drawn borders. Natural forces do not care where the borders are, and when discussing climate pretending they do just leads to poor understanding.
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