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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Jan 2016, 12:34:54

dohboi wrote:This has a map (Figure 1, page 2221) that suggests that the Baja peninsula right on the edge of a large blob of 'cooler/wetter' effects that covered pretty much all of the southern and much of western US and a it of northern Mexico. These areas are obviously not intended to have precise boundaries, though.

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2009/200 ... etal_1.pdf


Good find, tracking down through the document to page six precipitation graphics d and f it show an increase of 1 to 2.5 mm/d which adds up to 14.4" to 35.9" per year. A prairie will prosper with 12" per year and Forests prosper above about 28" per year. Needless to say the region is much lower in 'normal' years, for example Ensenada, a reasonable city in Baja California averages 265 mm aka 10.4" of rain per year. It looks like the increase rainfall will extend from south of Baja all the way to San Fransisco.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Jan 2016, 15:49:49

Exact predictions for specific locals are of course the hardest to pin down reliably.

I'm frankly surprised that there hasn't been more rain in California by now in this El Nino season. And that's usually a pretty safe bet, iirc.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Jan 2016, 16:58:14

dohboi wrote:Exact predictions for specific locals are of course the hardest to pin down reliably.

I'm frankly surprised that there hasn't been more rain in California by now in this El Nino season. And that's usually a pretty safe bet, iirc.


I think it is a side effect of the slow meandering jet stream interacting with El Nino in ways we have never seen before. Or at least interacting with a Super El Nino like we are having right now. IIRC back in 97-98 California got a lot of rain and all the reservoirs were full but I dodn't look up the record to confirm.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 03 Feb 2016, 06:51:05

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iKF-hWUOH

Climate scientists in the 80s were predicting drying in some places where we are, in fact, seeing it.

What they didn't predict was the 'Hot Blob' in the northeast Pacific, which is altering patterns in the region and beyond in ways beyond what might have been predicted from warming without the Blob.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 03 Feb 2016, 09:52:40

dohboi wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iKF-hWUOH

Climate scientists in the 80s were predicting drying in some places where we are, in fact, seeing it.

What they didn't predict was the 'Hot Blob' in the northeast Pacific, which is altering patterns in the region and beyond in ways beyond what might have been predicted from warming without the Blob.


That video has been pulled off YouTube, got another link?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 03 Feb 2016, 15:57:23

Wow. Weird. I'll see what I can do...

ETA: Ah, it was my bad. I clipped off the end of the url in copying it. I don't think the title completely accurately covers what is in the video, by the way, but maybe I missed something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iKF-hWUOHk

Let me know if this works for you.
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The Drought is back despite El Nino...

Unread postby Revi » Thu 11 Feb 2016, 11:06:33

I guess the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge has reformed and is not letting those El Nino rains into California.

Here's the latest according to Robertscribbler:

http://robertscribbler.com

Check out the bottom for the drought in Cali.
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Re: The Drought is back despite El Nino...

Unread postby hvacman » Thu 11 Feb 2016, 17:50:42

Well, Robertscribbler may be right, but may be wrong. Too soon to tell. We frequently get a dry spell in the middle of the winter of up to a month, even in a wet year. click on the following link and look at the Shasta Lake 2005-2006 rainfall. Note that was the wettest year we have had in a long time - 86" of rain. Note how it had a very wet beginning, just like this year. Note the little flat spot around February 2006. Almost a month of no-rain. Then it rained constantly - every day - in March. It was a VERY wet month. I know. I was here, and have the webbed feet to prove it.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jspPlotServlet.jsp?sensor_no=11532&end=02%2F11%2F2016+14%3A32&geom=huge&interval=5000&cookies=cdec01

But look last year's rainfall. It actually looked pretty good early-on, almost as good as this year, even got a couple of storms in February. Then it stopped. A little splash here and there, but nothing sufficient to fill the tank. What will it be this year? Is this a "normal" ridge, or a "ridiculously resilient" ridge. Will 2016 be like 2006 or 2015? Dunno, and neither does Robertscribbler. We gotta wait and see.
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Re: The Drought is back despite El Nino...

Unread postby Revi » Thu 11 Feb 2016, 19:39:37

Interesting. Who knows what El Nino will bring. It would be nice if he does bring those rains. I agree. It's too early to tell what will happen. I thought that March and April are pretty dry in the Southwest usually. I was in western Mexico and that's a dry time of year, until the seasonal rains start up again in the summer.
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Re: The Drought is back despite El Nino...

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 13:12:30

Here in Corona California it sure doesn't seem to be an El Niño year. Right now it's perfectly clear and not a cloud in the sky. Only had a couple of one day rain storms since the first of the year. Was expecting to see never ending gully washers like I, and everyone else my age (61), has experienced in this state in past decades with all the news to prepare for the "Super El Niño".

This will be what? the 5th year of a drought for Southern California? Longest I can remember in my lifetime. We'll see what the next 3 months produce.
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Re: The Drought is back despite El Nino...

Unread postby Lore » Sat 13 Feb 2016, 09:45:53

We discussed the possibility of El Niño being disrupted by the changing Arctic patterns earlier last year. Looks like we have a whole new ball game to figure out.
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Re: The Drought is back despite El Nino...

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sat 13 Feb 2016, 13:13:48

Here in Central Texas, we are now behind in rainfall this year when it was predicted that we would see more clouds, more rain, and below average temperatures this winter. Haven't seen it, but winter isn't over yet either. I don't mind the milder temperatures. That's better for my citrus trees. Even my banana trees didn't completely freeze back this winter so far.

My rainwater collection tanks could use a recharge. I still have a few thousand gallons left, but I'd rather use the collected rainwater more in the spring and summer than in the winter...

The current US/Texas Drought Monitor map shows Texas in good shape at this time, but I think we will see more yellow in the map soon. The county I live in is one of those currently shaded yellow.
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Re: The Drought is back despite El Nino...

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 17:00:27

Went skiing in Tahoe this past weekend. I was so happy to see snow. However, there really wasn't much for hopes of an extended season, and if we are ahead of AVERAGE, average is not amounting to much any more, and even more worrying is the shrinking of the length of the winter season because of global warming. It practically feels like winter is already over here. Spring time is glorious, but it is too early nevertheless.
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Re: The Drought is back despite El Nino...

Unread postby Revi » Mon 15 Feb 2016, 16:47:54

We'll see what happens. It could be a really dry year next year when La Nina takes over...
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Re: The Drought is back despite El Nino...

Unread postby Lore » Mon 15 Feb 2016, 18:29:44

Revi wrote:We'll see what happens. It could be a really dry year next year when La Nina takes over...


Except the PDO may have slipped positive which means a 15 to 30 year temporary surge. The concern being that after 30 years of warming I doubt you'll be looking at a reset anywhere close to the average today.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 12:39:14


Several Caribbean countries under drought watches or warnings


Drought warnings have been issued for Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Dominica, northern Guyana, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago and northern Suriname.

A drought watch has also been issued for Grenada, while Haiti east-and southward has been noted for drought concern.


http://www.caribbean360.com/news/severa ... s-by-cdema
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Officer films glee as dry Australia river starts to flow

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 18 Feb 2016, 01:26:36

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-35248380

Police officer Des Hansson could not contain his excitement when water began to flow through the dry bed of the McKinlay River.

Drought has taken a savage toll on the town of McKinlay in north-west Queensland, Australia, so a downpour of rain just before Christmas was the best present he could imagine.

Suspecting water would begin to flow on 18 December, Senior Constable Hansson drove to the riverbank and started filming when the water began to cut through the dust.

"Come on down … Come to papa!" he can be heard yelling in the video.

"Here she comes... wow, I can't believe how lucky I am!"
'Desperate times'

His enthusiastic and very Australian response to the river's return to life would perhaps have gone unnoticed were it not for his daughter, Tahnee, who uploaded the video to YouTube on 19 December.

This week the internet noticed it, and turned Snr Con Hansson into an overnight sensation.

Speaking to the BBC from McKinlay Police Station, the straight-talking police officer said he was excited the river had run, but his chief concern was seeing the area emerge from drought.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 20 Feb 2016, 13:55:36

Thanks for that, db.
Meanwhile, some good news out of Brazil for once:

Drought ends in Brazil’s Sao Paulo but future still uncertain

Water levels at the main reservoir in Brazil’s largest city of Sao Paulo have more than doubled since the El Niño climate phenomenon ended a two-year drought, although industrialists and activists warn fresh shortages may be just a matter of time.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazi ... SKCN0VR1YJ
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 21 Feb 2016, 03:25:46

Back to bad news:

El Nino-Linked Drought Is Ethiopia's Worst in 50 Years


More than 10 million people are in need of food aid in Ethiopia amid a drought worse than the one that triggered the haunting 1984 famine, the U.N. has warned.

Crops have withered, animals have died and water sources have dried up in parts of northeastern Ethiopia following the failure of the last two rainy seasons.

More than 400,000 children are now at risk of acute malnutrition, according to the U.N.

"It is the worst drought as compared to the last 50 years," says Mikitu Kassa, the head of Ethiopia's National Disaster Prevention Committee.

In 1984, images of emaciated children were beamed around the world inspiring international donors to reach into their pockets as celebrity musicians trumpeted the call through Live Aid concerts and charity singles including "We Are the World" and "Do They Know It's Christmas?"

This year's crisis has been blamed on the massive El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean. The same pattern that has brought extreme wet weather and snowstorms to the United States has delivered blistering heat to much of Africa.


http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/el-ni ... rs-n520686
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 22 Feb 2016, 21:57:54

Did I say something about more bad news:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/f ... ert-mugabe

Zimbabwe declares 'state of disaster' due to drought

More than quarter of population face food shortages as country hit by severe drought, with cattle dying and crops destroyed
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