Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JV153 » Wed 21 Oct 2015, 11:30:51

Can add Finland to areas experiencing very dry conditions, not quite moderate drought but close.. almost no rain in 2 months and these months are usually the wettest. A lot of vegetation not near lakes appears parched and yellow (grass) over a large area. Precipitation in September/October is at 20% of typical in central and southern Finland.
JV153
 

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 21 Oct 2015, 20:00:49

bloody hell

when a Scandinavian country is in a drought we really are in trouble

in case it hasn't already been posted the BOM in Australia is getting serious about El Nino

summer now forecast to be hot and dry ( yeah ok .... hotter and dryer than normal )

increased fire risk
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 22 Oct 2015, 10:32:18

Hang in there all you folks out there experiencing the new normal of extremes. We seem to be slipping back into drought here in MN, too, though a good rain is forecast for tomorrow. Generally, though dryness seems to be spreading throughout the US: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

What happened to the increased precipitation that the southern states, at least, were supposed to get with El Nino conditions?

At least we don't have it this bad...yet:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/19/world ... m=Facebook

Ethiopia, a Nation of Farmers, Strains Under Severe Drought

...farmers and herders in affected areas continue to sell off dwindling resources. And while places like Mieso do not appear at first glance to be battling drought, there are already areas where the signs of impending disaster are clear. In the Amibara area in the northeastern Afar Region, the rocky sand is littered with cattle carcasses.

“About 30 of my family’s cows died this year because there is no grass,” said the Afari animal herder Humed Kamil, 42, a father of seven who is slowly selling off his remaining animals to buy food from the market. “We’re surviving, but we’re facing a lot of problems. We don’t have milk or beef now. We only eat the corn that we buy.”...
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 22 Oct 2015, 16:52:27

dohboi wrote:Hang in there all you folks out there experiencing the new normal of extremes. We seem to be slipping back into drought here in MN, too, though a good rain is forecast for tomorrow. Generally, though dryness seems to be spreading throughout the US: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

What happened to the increased precipitation that the southern states, at least, were supposed to get with El Nino conditions?

At least we don't have it this bad...yet:]


The El Nino effects for the southern states are forecast to be strongest this winter. It's not winter yet.

Meanwhile, the Texas Drought Monitor Map shows my county back in the D4 category. :(
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX

However, local forecast calls for a deluge on Friday/Saturday and flash flood warnings have already been issued.
See National Weather Service Statement for Central Texas

FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10
TO 12 INCHES.


Yikes!

It'll be interesting to see what the map shows next week.

My rainwater tanks definitely need recharging! I was down to less than one month's supply of rainwater. We'll see what happens...

So far I've received just a few brief light showers including the misty-type droplets, and I've measured only 0.2" (5 mm). 70% chance for more tonight.

Talk about extremes!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Central Texas

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 22 Oct 2015, 18:34:17

"The El Nino effects for the southern states are forecast to be strongest this winter. It's not winter yet."

Good point. Still, with this already being such a major-looking El Nino, and with other expected effects hitting early in various places, one might have expected a bit more moisture already making its way in your direction. But as you point out, it seems to be about to arrive. Please do keep us posted, and for Pete's sake, stay safe.

TX sure has been whip lashed between drought and deluge recently.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 22 Oct 2015, 23:12:45

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_river

Really, though, you are aware that more people die these days from extreme rain events and the related flooding than from tornadoes, right? Would you mock someone asking people to stay safe when tornadoes were in the area?

I guess up behind the redwood curtain, the rain only ever falls in a gentle edenic mist, so the fact that the rest of us in the world find it a hazard may strike you as strange... :lol:

But yes, plagues of frogs are always something to watch for, especially when they fall out of the sky! :)
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 26 Oct 2015, 08:44:38

http://www.trust.org/item/2015102309051 ... OtherNews2

Climate change lacks 'the immediacy of now' in conflict zones - experts

Barren barley and wheat fields stretch across the dry landscape of northern Afghanistan, the result of persistent drought and flash flooding that has left thousands of people facing food shortages and loss of work.

Climate change is a core culprit of such extreme weather, according to longtime humanitarian worker and biologist Jim Jarvie. He believes sustainable, less resource-intensive solutions are needed to help farmers adapt.

But he has not always had much luck conveying the message to some of his peers.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Lore » Mon 26 Oct 2015, 18:44:48

dohboi wrote:
But yes, plagues of frogs are always something to watch for, especially when they fall out of the sky! :)


Forget about the frogs. They are now going extinct too.

Decline in amphibian populations
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline ... opulations
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
User avatar
Lore
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9021
Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 29 Oct 2015, 22:12:04

So sad, so true.

This weeks drought monitor shows big reductions in drought levels across much of TX and the vicinity, and some reduction in dryness in the middle of my state, MN: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndDa ... lider.aspx

Predictions are still for an abnormally warm winter and early spring in the northern third of the lower 48 and for Alaska (and presumably for most of Canada), but a bit colder down south. It's later next year that abnormal heat settles into the south and west. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... olor/t.gif

And most of the southern third of the country and on up the east coast should have some pretty wet months going forward...not so much in the North Country. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... olor/p.gif
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 10:13:53

Drought-Caused Blackouts Batter Zambia, Zimbabwe Economies

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/ ... es-n454581
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 23:16:48

Is Arizona facing a megadrought?

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/ ... /74882132/

The currant drought in California, now in its fourth year, is getting the nation’s attention and costing the economy many jobs and billions of dollars. Meanwhile, the whole Southwest, from California to Texas — with Arizona right in the center — has been in a much longer drought stretching back to 1999. Both droughts are the worst in over 100 years of rainfall measurements.

The longer drought centered on Arizona has reduced flows of the Colorado River by nearly 20 percent, lowered the biggest reservoirs in the country from full to less than half-full, killed off a vast expanse of piñon pine in the Four Corners, and contributed to severe wildfire risk unprecedented since Europeans first came to our state.

Our summers have grown longer and hotter, and our dust storms have become a topic of national news. Last spring, we narrowly escaped an official declaration of shortage on the Colorado River, which would have cut deeply into Arizona’s allocation of water for the Central Arizona Project that brings water to many of our farmers and the cities of Phoenix and Tucson.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 02 Nov 2015, 09:24:12

http://www.trust.org/item/2015103018485 ... dlineStory

New NASA data shows Brazil's drought deeper than thought

"It is much larger than I imagined," Getirana told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. "With climate change, this is going to happen more and more often."

The Cantareira water reservoir system providing water for 8.8 million residents of Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest city, for example, was filled to less than 11 percent of its capacity last year, local officials reported.

Getirana's research, published this week in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, relies on 13 years of data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites which circle the earth detecting changes in the gravity field caused by movements of water on the planet.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Nov 2015, 04:29:18



2.7 million South African homes affected by drought, 2 provinces declared disaster areas


JOHANNESBURG (AP) —
Residents of a South African coastal town say their drinking water “tastes like the sea” as a worsening drought affects fresh water sources, according to a local newspaper.

Citizens of Port Shepstone in KwaZulu-Natal province lined up with buckets for fresh water distributed by officials as one of the driest periods in 50 years increased the salt content of rivers, reported the South Coast Herald newspaper. Elsewhere in the province the levels of dams have dipped to about a third of capacity, according to South Africa’s ministry of water and sanitation.


http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articl ... king-water
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Nov 2015, 19:08:04

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... en-harvest

Drought Turns China Hope for Big Corn Crop Into Shrunken Harvest

The record corn crop China was counting on to sustain its huge pork habit is coming up short.

Production that was supposed to reach an all-time high this season instead will drop 5.8 percent, the most in 15 years, after a summer drought and late-season rains stunted plants and delayed harvests, according to SGS SA, a researcher hired by Bloomberg to survey farmers in the main growing regions during September and October. As recently as Oct. 9, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast a 4.3 percent gain in Chinese output.


Sounds like it's time to kick the pork habit, and start eating that corn directly! :)
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 07 Nov 2015, 17:44:17

Cornfed reminds me of that great funky Duckman cartoon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckman

The series centers on Eric T. Duckman (voiced by Jason Alexander),[4] a lascivious, widowed, anthropomorphic duck who lives with his family in Los Angeles[5] and works as a private detective. The tagline of the show, seen in the opening credits, is "Private Dick/Family Man" ("dick" being short for "detective", as well as serving as a double entendre).

Main characters include Cornfed Pig (Gregg Berger), Duckman's Joe Friday-esque business partner and best friend, Ajax (Dweezil Zappa), Duckman's eldest, mentally-slow teenage son;


Good news from BC

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2015FLNR0292-001556

Temporary water use restrictions on the Coldwater River and its tributaries have been rescinded effective noon, Sept. 18, 2015.
The order, issued under authority of the Fish Protection Act, was originally scheduled to be in force until Sept. 30, 2015 and was in place to limit water use to protect coho, chinook and steelhead populations in the Coldwater River during low flows caused by drought. It was also in place to improve conditions for spawning salmon and limit predation during the critical period that these fish were navigating their way up river.

Following a review of the river on Sept. 13 by staff from both the ministry and the federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO), 225 chinook were counted and it was confirmed that the peak of spawning had occurred. Overall flow conditions and temperatures on the river have stabilized and are deemed sufficient to provide habitat for fish in the stream and protect incubating eggs. As a result the order establishing a minimum flow threshold of 960 litres per second is no longer required.

The Province appreciates the water licensee’s contribution to conserving salmon stocks by complying with the order, as well as voluntarily reducing their water use. The Province also thanks the Nicola Tribal Association for providing advice and monitoring information to ministry staff throughout the drought period.

Quick Facts:
•Section 9 of the Fish Protection Act allows for ministerial orders to temporarily regulate water users, regardless of the terms of their water licence under the Water Act, provided the following conditions are met:◦Water levels are low due to drought.
◦The survival of fish populations is or may be threatened due to low water levels.
◦Due consideration has been given to the needs of agricultural users.
User avatar
Whitefang
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 769
Joined: Fri 12 May 2006, 02:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Tue 10 Nov 2015, 04:09:25

Whitefang wrote:Cornfed reminds me of that great funky Duckman cartoon.


He had a line that went something like "Let's have sex the way nature intended - drunk and fantasizing about other people."
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby JV153 » Tue 10 Nov 2015, 11:30:52

kiwichick wrote:bloody hell

when a Scandinavian country is in a drought we really are in trouble



It's actually sort of wet right now, except the water levels in the lakes ( and groundwater) are down about 50-60 cm. 20 more cm, and there will be mud bathtub ring around the smaller lakes.
JV153
 

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 10 Nov 2015, 13:33:21

@ jv153

yes I assume you are getting autumn rains now

we have just had a very dry October and most of the farmers in our area ( mid Canterbury ) are irrigating.

and Australia has just had it's hottest October on record with significant areas already in drought
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Tue 10 Nov 2015, 13:53:44

Lake Powell got a couple bumps this year, including a big one in May. Otherwise they were predicting water ration in January 2016. I think they are just keeping their fingers crossed and hoping for snow.

Image
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 10:33:05

Desertification: The people whose land is turning to dust

According to the UN, over 50 million people could move from the desertified areas of sub-Saharan Africa towards North Africa and Europe by 2020


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-34790661

India’s villages face a sharp spike in food prices in 2016, as a second year of drought drives up the cost of ingredients such as sugar and milk, and poor transport infrastructure stops falling global prices from reaching rural areas.


http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south- ... to-drought

South Africa’s economy and businesses are beginning to count their losses from the devastating drought that has wreaked havoc throughout the country.

http://www.iol.co.za/business/news/sa-c ... kWHdCsnuoY

http://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-new ... o-drought/

(Thanks to Andy and Todaysguestis at rs for these links.)

Not much change stateside: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndDa ... rison.aspx

They continue to predict a dry winter in the north and a wet one in the south and east. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... olor/p.gif
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18456
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests