Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 13 Aug 2019, 11:17:16

Azothius wrote
Despite the title of this thread, imho, we've been in the instability phase for a while now, but the level of instability keeps increasing and the planet is edging ever closer to crossing the threshold....
Jedrider wrote
What makes you think that we haven't already crossed this threshold? Instability is good compared to a hot house Earth IMO.



I certainly agree that climate instability is better than a hot house earth.

And perhaps I was unclear, I do tend to believe that we have passed the tipping point of being able to avert climate chaos. I agree that it is likely "baked in", as they say.

Looking at how I distinguished Climate Instability from Climate Chaos:

Climate Instability: has an increased variability of weather systems that significantly exceed the established regional and seasonal parameters of temperature ranges, of the frequency of fluctuations in weather patterns, and of the occurrence of extreme events.

Climate Chaos: has a highly erratic variability of weather systems that greatly exceed the established regional and seasonal parameters of temperature ranges, of the frequency of fluctuations in weather patterns, and of the occurrence of extreme events.


The reason I believe that we have not yet crossed the threshold into actually experiencing climate chaos is that global food production is still largely unchanged. Once climate change/weather variability/extreme weather events have greatly impacted our ability to reliably raise food, that would meet my definition of climate chaos rather than climate instability.

Of course there has been some measurable effect already, but not yet that significant:


Climate change is already affecting global food production -- unequally

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 152047.htm

The world's top 10 crops -- barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat -- supply a combined 83 percent of all calories produced on cropland. Yields have long been projected to decrease in future climate conditions. Now, new research shows climate change has already affected production of these key energy sources -- and some regions and countries are faring far worse than others.

Published in PLOS ONE, the University of Minnesota-led study, conducted with researchers from the University of Oxford and the University of Copenhagen, used weather and reported crop data to evaluate the potential impact of observed climate change. The researchers found that:

observed climate change causes a significant yield variation in the world's top 10 crops, ranging from a decrease of 13.4 percent for oil palm to an increase of 3.5 percent for soybean, and resulting in an average reduction of approximately one percent (-3.5 X 10e13 kcal/year) of consumable food calories from these top 10 crops;

impacts of climate change on global food production are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa, and Australia, generally positive in Latin America, and mixed in Asia and Northern and Central America;

half of all food-insecure countries are experiencing decreases in crop production -- and so are some affluent industrialized countries in Western Europe;

contrastingly, recent climate change has increased the yields of certain crops in some areas of the upper Midwest United States.

"There are winners and losers, and some countries that are already food insecure fare worse," says lead author Deepak Ray of the University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment, whose high-resolution global crop statistics databases have also been used to help to identify how global crop production changes over time. These findings indicate which geographical areas and crops are most at risk, making them relevant to those working to achieve the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals of ending hunger and limiting the effects of climate change. Insights like these lead to new questions and crucial next steps.....

"The research documents how change is already happening, not just in some future time," says Ray.
Climate Chaos is Coming
User avatar
Azothius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 14:21:59
Location: 45 Degrees North

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 18 Aug 2019, 11:16:06

Looping back to the concept that scientists are “holding back” I’m attaching a link to a podcast with Bill Rees who developed the Global Footprint. This interview is for an aware audience, behind a paywall. and he cuts to the chase.

The whole podcast is 24 minutes, about 20 of which is Rees talking. My take away is that his best guess is that we can sustain 750 million to 200 million. And he clearly states that such statements, although true, overwhelm people and it doesn’t help the conversation.

https://www.postcarbon.org/resource-limitations/
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 13083
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 12:38:30

I once lived in the tiny town of Pendroy Montana. In the snowstorm that just hit that state, nearby Dupuyer Creek received 37 inches of snow. The Blackfoot Nation / Browning received 48 inches of snow.

Their weather forecast for the next 2 weeks are temps 20 degrees below average. Highs in the low forties instead of low 60s.

Yikes.
Climate Chaos is Coming
User avatar
Azothius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 14:21:59
Location: 45 Degrees North

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 11 Oct 2019, 15:57:46

A second early, and extraordinary, winter storm:

Emergency plan activated in North Dakota amid fall snowstorm


https://www.yahoo.com/news/blizzard-war ... 48525.html

"The extraordinary intensity of this early winter storm threatens to test the limits of local response capabilities across a large portion of our state," Burgum said of the plan that places on standby all agency resources, including the National Guard, to respond to weather-related emergencies.


Carl Jones, a weather service meteorologist in Grand Forks, said the storm likely is historic. He said up to a foot (0.3 meters) of snow already had fallen through much of the state by Friday to be topped by up to 3 feet (0.9 meters) more later in the day.

"These are unheard of amounts for any time of year," he said.


"I'm expecting massive crop losses — as devastating as we've even seen," said Jon Nelson, a state lawmaker who farms several hundred acres near Rugby in north-central North Dakota.

Unharvested wheat in the region probably will be a total loss, he said.

"A lot of the standing stuff is flattened to the ground," Nelson said. "It's shot and some guys are putting their combines away and won't bring them out again."

Erika Kenner, who ranches with her parents in Leeds, North Dakota, said she felt helpless Friday as she was unable to check on the family's herd of several hundred cows due to deep, drifting snow.

"I just hear the wind howling and think of those poor cows out there," she said. "Cattle are tough but this kind of weather just wears on them."


As I've suggested before, my own working definition of when we've crossed the threshold from "climate instability" to "climate chaos" is when our ability to reliably raise food is compromised.

When I last checked US forecasts (did I check global forecasts? I forget.) for crop production, they were in line with recent historical averages, even after the "bomb cyclone(s)" and millions of acres not planted due to wet soil. It will be interesting to see how the harvests in the US pan out at the end of this growing season.

What would constitute a significant reduction in crop production? A consistent 10% decrease from recent historical averages, and falling?
Climate Chaos is Coming
User avatar
Azothius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 14:21:59
Location: 45 Degrees North

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Nefarious » Fri 11 Oct 2019, 16:59:07

This guy is tracking global crop losses and such
http://iceagefarmer.com/map/
'By the pricking of my thumbs,Something Wicked This Way Comes."
User avatar
Nefarious
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 472
Joined: Fri 31 Oct 2008, 02:00:00
Location: The Deep South

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 01:21:53

I have looked at that site before.

He, of course, is all about "the grand solar minimum" influencing weather/climate. And suggests the growing seasons are getting shorter "on both ends". While actually, growing seasons have been increasing, and it's the erratic jet stream, due to the effects of GW, that is producing the current situation, not the solar minimum.

But still, he provides some good info, despite being quite alarmist.


Granted, the following forecast was made prior to this incoming weather system in the US, and all the crops have yet to be harvested - but we are [were?] still within recent historic averages for this year's production:


https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/ ... -usda-says

U.S. PRODUCTION
In its October Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn yield at 168.4 bushels per acre vs. the average trade estimate of 167.5 bu./acre and its previous estimate of 168.2. The governmental agency estimated corn production at 13.77 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 13.68 billion and its estimate last month of 13.7 billion.

For soybeans, USDA’s yield estimate came in at 46.9 bu./acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 47.3 bu./acre and its previous estimate of 47.9.

Soybean output has been pegged at 3.55 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 3.58 billion bushels and its previous estimate of 3.63 billion.


Projected harvested acreage, for corn and soybeans, was within recent historic averages:
HARVESTED ACREAGE
In its report, the USDA pegged U.S. 2019 corn harvested acreage at 81.8 million vs. the avg. trade estimate of 81.6 million and its previous estimate of 82.01 million.

For soybeans, the harvested acreage is pegged at 75.6 million vs. the avg. trade estimate of 75.70 million and the USDA’s previous estimate of 75.8 million.


US Soybean Ending stocks take a nosedive here:
U.S. 2019/20 ENDING STOCKS
The USDA sees the U.S. 2019/2020 corn ending stocks at 1.929 billion bushels vs. its previous estimate of 2.19 billion and the avg. trade estimate of 1.784 billion.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 460 million bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 521 million and the USDA’s previous estimate of 630 million bushels.


World Ending Stocks are within recent historic averages:
WORLD 2019/2020 ENDING STOCKS
The USDA pegged the world corn ending stocks at 302 million metric tons vs. the avg. trade estimate of 298.3 mmt. and its previous estimate of 306.3 mmt.

For soybeans, the world’s ending stocks were left unchanged from the previous estimate of 99.2 mmt.

The USDA raised its world wheat ending stocks to 287 mmt. from 286.5 last month and the avg. trade estimate of 285.2 mmt.


Though, given the weather issues this year, it certainly does "feel" like we are shifting from climate instability to climate chaos. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see how this year's harvest actually pans out.


Adding rice global rice production:

http://www.worldagriculturalproduction. ... /rice.aspx

World Rice Production 2019/2020
October 2019
This month the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the World Rice Production 2019/2020 will be 497.77 million metric tons, around 3.55 million tons more than previous month's projection.

Rice Production last year (*) was 498.95 million tons. This year's 497.77 estimated millions tons could represent a decrease of 1.18 million tons or 0.24% in rice production around the globe.
Climate Chaos is Coming
User avatar
Azothius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 14:21:59
Location: 45 Degrees North

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:08:06

That is reporting historic data. As we all know yeast grows at the same rate right until the end.

So what happens to those projections if one figures in soil and water depletion? Most sources of projections I see simply ignore these factors yet they are quite well known.

Then CC effects would be in addition to those figures.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 13083
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Nefarious » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:38:43

There is some serious fuckery in those corn numbers.
WASHINGTON, Aug. 12, 2019 – Agricultural producers reported they were not able to plant crops on more than 19.4 million acres in 2019, according to a new report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This marks the most prevented plant acres reported since USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) began releasing the report in 2007 and 17.49 million acres more than reported at this time last year.
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/news ... lion-acres

and yet they estimate to harvest 200k more acres this year than the average?!?!
at 168.4 bpa that would equal a loss of 3.27 billion bushels form those 19.4 million acres. (all 19.4 million acres are not for just corn ,that was my mistake see my next post)Yet we are going to produce 90 million bushels more than avg.
Give me a break!
Not to mention
55% of the corn harvest this year is rated good to excellent.
Only 58% is mature as of oct 6 compared to 92% last year at this same time
Only 15% has been harvested compared to 33% last year at this same time
https://downloads.usda.library.cornell. ... og4119.pdf
And no it's not counting the effects from the cold and snowstorms
Last edited by Nefarious on Sat 12 Oct 2019, 13:08:31, edited 1 time in total.
'By the pricking of my thumbs,Something Wicked This Way Comes."
User avatar
Nefarious
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 472
Joined: Fri 31 Oct 2008, 02:00:00
Location: The Deep South

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 12:54:34

I agree, those corn numbers don't add up. Thanks for that!

Re comparing this year's maturity & harvest to last year's - last year's was ahead of average.

Though, your point still stands, as this year is still below the 2014-2018 average.
Maturity: 58% this year, 85% average
harvested: 15% this year, 27% average

How the weather affects the harvest, and what the final numbers are, have yet to be seen
As Yogi Berra would say, it ain't over til it's over.

It's a bit like watching the arctic melt. Will this year be the year that we see a significant weather-related decrease in crop production? Or will we dodge another bullet?
Climate Chaos is Coming
User avatar
Azothius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 14:21:59
Location: 45 Degrees North

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Nefarious » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 13:00:53

Upon further reading those 19.4 million acres are split and not only just corn. I don't want to be accused of misrepresenting data.
this is how they have the breakdown on prevented planting. Says corn is only down 1% in acreage. Soybeans 16%
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/ ... plant.html
Still don't believe we are going to harvest above avg though but that's my opinion only.
'By the pricking of my thumbs,Something Wicked This Way Comes."
User avatar
Nefarious
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 472
Joined: Fri 31 Oct 2008, 02:00:00
Location: The Deep South

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 15 Oct 2019, 13:28:24

Interesting. Thanks for the digging into that.
Climate Chaos is Coming
User avatar
Azothius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 14:21:59
Location: 45 Degrees North

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 16 Oct 2019, 14:13:33

Indigenous farming practices failing as climate change disrupts seasons
Farmers around the world rely on millennia-old wisdom to guide their planting. Scrambled weather and seasons are forcing them into uncharted territory.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... WNCKuiFeyc
Climate Chaos is Coming
User avatar
Azothius
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri 24 Jul 2015, 14:21:59
Location: 45 Degrees North

Previous

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests