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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 06 Aug 2019, 23:21:43

onlooker wrote:https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/08/03/global-ocean-circulation-appears-to-be-collapsing-due-to-a-warming-planet/#580a170ef6f4

Global Ocean Circulation Appears To Be Collapsing Due To A Warming Planet


So, is that good or bad news? Isn't that something like a negative feedback for the northern latitudes?

Of course, in general, all this change is bad, but is it a negative feedback reducing the warming in the arctic?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 07 Aug 2019, 04:55:09

jedrider wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/08/03/global-ocean-circulation-appears-to-be-collapsing-due-to-a-warming-planet/#580a170ef6f4

Global Ocean Circulation Appears To Be Collapsing Due To A Warming Planet


So, is that good or bad news? Isn't that something like a negative feedback for the northern latitudes?

Of course, in general, all this change is bad, but is it a negative feedback reducing the warming in the arctic?

My understanding is temporarily. But the positive warming feedbacks trend would override it eventually
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dissident » Wed 07 Aug 2019, 19:12:56

onlooker wrote:
jedrider wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2017/08/03/global-ocean-circulation-appears-to-be-collapsing-due-to-a-warming-planet/#580a170ef6f4

Global Ocean Circulation Appears To Be Collapsing Due To A Warming Planet


So, is that good or bad news? Isn't that something like a negative feedback for the northern latitudes?

Of course, in general, all this change is bad, but is it a negative feedback reducing the warming in the arctic?

My understanding is temporarily. But the positive warming feedbacks trend would override it eventually


It is bad news. It is part of the super-stratification of the ocean that is in progress. The slow abyssal currents are reducing more and the heat is being progressively trapped in the surface layer (which even experiences amplification of currents). The valve is the thermocline: the temperature gradient between the the warm surface waters and the deep cold waters is increasing which shuts down eddy mixing and flux of heat into deeper waters on top of any reduction in the THC.

Things are happening faster than expected. As usual.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 11:53:04

dissident wrote:Things are happening faster than expected. As usual.


The only people who are surprised by the rate of change are climatologists, which is so frustrating.

They keep assuming more of a linear progression when it's more of an exponential curve. Wishful thinking aspect of denial? It's just gotten ridiculous at this point.

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 12:20:00

asg70 wrote:
dissident wrote:Things are happening faster than expected. As usual.


The only people who are surprised by the rate of change are climatologists, which is so frustrating.

They keep assuming more of a linear progression when it's more of an exponential curve. Wishful thinking aspect of denial? It's just gotten ridiculous at this point.


I understand the sentiment, but I don't think that is true, that climatologists are unusually 'surprised'. Of course, when you predict some sort of castastrophe unfolding and it does unfold, but you've never witnessed it before, there is surprise, but not 'surprise' in witnessing it.

Certainly, climate deniers like 'Judith', for instance, are not 'surprised' because they just deny it even while it's happening: Like that comedian said: "Who are you going to believe: Me or your - lying - eyes?"

The climate models are not linear, though they have many linear components plugged in, no doubt.


7 meters SLR by 2070 according to Beckwith (well, he's an exception certainly, being public about his lack of any surprise):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CexQmFFtoTw
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dissident » Thu 08 Aug 2019, 18:22:45

There is pressure in science not to sound alarmist. That is why articles are full of waffle fluff using "could" instead of "can" and "will". There is always some conservatism in science, but corporate funded denial has put climate scientists on the defensive. And they do not have the government backing them up. Even so called leftist governments (in Canada, Democrats in the USA) are overly worried about protecting business like some zoo of sacred cows.

A metric of how stagnant is the regulatory environment is regulated pollutants. The same set of chemicals and coarse aerosols from the early 1970s are still the focus today. Totally ignoring the explosion of carcinogens and the change in the size spectrum of aerosols into the nanoparticle regime (e.g. GDI gasoline engines). Politicians are happy that NOx and O3 are going down and pretend that everything is hunky dory. In reality, pollution of the worst kind is getting worse. These clowns are never going to bat for climate science.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 11:23:02

Just some Climate Change 101 level reflections, trying sort out in my own mind how to differentiate these three climatic states :

Climate Stability: has a variability of weather systems within established regional and seasonal parameters of temperature ranges, of the frequency of fluctuations in weather patterns, and of the occurrence of extreme events.

Climate Instability: has an increased variability of weather systems that significantly exceed the established regional and seasonal parameters of temperature ranges, of the frequency of fluctuations in weather patterns, and of the occurrence of extreme events.

Climate Chaos: has a highly erratic variability of weather systems that greatly exceed the established regional and seasonal parameters of temperature ranges, of the frequency of fluctuations in weather patterns, and of the occurrence of extreme events.


Despite the title of this thread, imho, we've been in the instability phase for a while now, but the level of instability keeps increasing and the planet is edging ever closer to crossing the threshold....
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 12:23:45

There is pressure in science not to sound alarmist. That is why articles are full of waffle fluff using "could" instead of "can" and "will". There is always some conservatism in science, but corporate funded denial has put climate scientists on the defensive.


what a complete load of BS. You claim to be a scientist....obviously you had different schooling in it than I did. What was taught is that there really never is a "final" answer, if you think there is then you are indeed not a scientist or rather one with a very high opinion of oneself that is unwarranted. History is rife with scientific theories that were seen as being "the answer" only to be proved incorrect years later. That is why real scientists who are actually interested in advancing understanding use many disclaimers, simply they do not know the answer and need to report that uncertainty. But apparently, you know all the answers. :roll:
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 12:29:25

And then "An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition to a new climate state at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance, and which is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrupt_climate_change
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 13:09:31

Despite the title of this thread, imho, we've been in the instability phase for a while now, but the level of instability keeps increasing and the planet is edging ever closer to crossing the threshold....


What makes you think that we haven't already crossed this threshold? Instability is good compared to a hot house Earth IMO.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 13:13:56

jedrider wrote:What makes you think that we haven't already crossed this threshold?


That's what I think of whenever I read MSM articles about us being close to tipping points. How long can we possibly be on the safe side of the tipping point? Remember 350.org, for instance? We blew way past 350PPM. Environmentalists keep shifting the Maginot line further and further forward in order to manufacture some sense of hope, but it seems more and more like a lot cause and we're just quibbling over how high the Malthusian body count will be rather than whether there will be one or not.

I think the number of scientists willing to openly state that a die-off is not absolutely baked into the cake are very low, regardless of what they truly think. And this lack of willingness to be brutally honest bothers me.

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 13:41:28

I think the number of scientists willing to openly state that a die-off is not absolutely baked into the cake are very low, regardless of what they truly think. And this lack of willingness to be brutally honest bothers me.


I don't think there is anyone out there "holding back". If anything there is a greater problem of researchers looking for something overly dramatic, (not backed up by research) to report in order to improve their readership (and further grants).

The most balanced and realistic approach to the uncertainty and how to describe it is undoubtedly by Judith Curry who has spent a lot of time thinking about the subject has published a couple of papers on it and also given testimony at Congress on the subject matter. It is based on all of the available literature at that point in time (late 2018).

https://judithcurry.com/2018/10/11/clim ... orst-case/

She points out the range of possibilities and what is almost certainly outside of that range. Her goal is to look for the absolute worst possible case (which she points out is nowhere near as bad as a lot of panic artists want you to believe) and use that for planning purposes in terms of adaptation.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 14:11:30

Climate Science Predictions Prove Too Conservative
Checking 20 years worth of projections shows that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has consistently underestimated the pace and impacts of global warming


https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... servative/

PS. Yes the article is from 2012. Things have only gotten visibly and obviously worse since.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 14:22:10

Warning, Warning Will Robinson: Epic Bullshit Article:

ep·i·ste·mic - relating to knowledge or to the degree of its validation

Don't need error bands to know that our Goose is cooked. The only, ONLY question, is How Soon? Very, very soon or just soon?

Now, you're going to give me another bullshit article on what 'soon' means to the human race. Even if the year was 2100, it would be too soon. Unfortunately, for us, who can no longer think ahead like Romans, perhaps. Their future was unbounded evidently. Ours, certainly, is not.

William Catton: OverShoot
https://www.amazon.com/Overshoot-Ecological-Basis-Revolutionary-Change-ebook/dp/B00VVH4UGG

We were in 'overshoot' even before climate change was a major factor of consideration. Climate change is just the accelerator, as if we needed another accelerator besides exponential growth of our population.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 16:32:42

asg70 wrote:
jedrider wrote:What makes you think that we haven't already crossed this threshold?


That's what I think of whenever I read MSM articles about us being close to tipping points. How long can we possibly be on the safe side of the tipping point? Remember 350.org, for instance? We blew way past 350PPM. Environmentalists keep shifting the Maginot line further and further forward in order to manufacture some sense of hope, but it seems more and more like a lot cause and we're just quibbling over how high the Malthusian body count will be rather than whether there will be one or not.

I think the number of scientists willing to openly state that a die-off is not absolutely baked into the cake are very low, regardless of what they truly think. And this lack of willingness to be brutally honest bothers me.


We were past 350 when McKibben formed 350.org. It was a talk of his that got me to go into action and form a 350 event in Philadelphia.

Years latter I was at an event with Bill, he was the main attraction for an after event cocktail reception. I cornered him for a quick question which, to paraphrase myself was... Bill I heard you giving this timeline for change and we have blown through it. I now hear new more distant timelines for action. What gives? To which he said, “Yeah we blew through those timelines and bad things will happen. But we are trying to organize people and if we don’t give them hope they won’t help us.” He then went on to talk about how we, the old generation, should become more involved and protest, get arrested, push the issue. Because we are old we have little to loose, it’s too much to put on young folks who, who if arrested, may loose their job, their career. He personally acted on those ideas. I find him a man of integrity.

But there is your answer. There are few really big well defined tipping points, like there are no tipping points to getting totally shit faced falling down drunk. You have just one drink, no bigee. And one more is OK. And what the heck, I’m feeling good, where’s the third. And then it’s whoopee, this parties smoking, bring on the fourth, fifth, sixth drink. And then you wake up with your head in the toilet.

We are somewhere around drink four.

But I too am annoyed at the lack of candor. I heard that “hopium” BS too much. I want my facts and drinks straight up, no water.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 18:59:32

Newf quoted/paraphrased Bill McKibben: “Yeah we blew through those timelines and bad things will happen. But we are trying to organize people and if we don’t give them hope they won’t help us"

Yeah, I got about the same response from him when I was fortunate enough to have him to myself a couple times.

He knows we're fucked. But "WE'RE FUCKED!" is not much of an inspiring rallying cry.

I wish him well, but I find it hard to get behind a banner that even the leader of the movement doesn't really believe in. Pretty much why I stopped going to church long ago, too.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dissident » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 19:59:22

Something does not add up with the GCM climate predictions. The older generation models used so-called slab oceans which were ad hoc constructs designed to save on the expense of running expensive ocean models coupled to the atmosphere models. Ocean dynamics are such that important processes occur at very small spatial scales (e.g. Rossby waves in the oceans are around 100 times smaller than in the atmosphere) so ocean models need a grid much finer than atmospheric models. This makes them numerically expensive. There there are issues coupling two models were intrinsic time and spatial scales are very different. Slab oceans do not behave like real oceans and do not sequester 90% of the thermal energy in the system.

http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/simpler ... model.html

Slab ocean models equilibrate too fast since there is no deep ocean thermal sink. Yet these models were used to predict the warming due to greenhouse gas increases. Keep this detail in mind and read on.

The recent IPCC round used coupled ocean-atmosphere models but the predictions remained similar aside from differences in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. This does not make sense unless the coupled ocean models are behaving like slab ocean approximations. In reality, we are seeing a progression to confined surface ocean warming with heat exchange into the deep ocean shut off by the increasing thermocline barrier (i.e. increased temperature gradient shuts down eddy heat fluxes and deep ocean current driving). So it appears that the current generation of coupled-ocean atmosphere models is not being operated in the proper regime to capture this transition.

The real world ocean heat accumulation transition from a massive sink for heat (90%) to a saturated regime where the amount of heat lost to the oceans will decrease substantially (i.e. the rate of heat uptake will slow a lot) means that the rate of atmospheric warming will jump even if the greenhouse gas emissions do not increase. The oceans have been doing a good job hiding the heat accumulation. We are now entering a new regime where the heating will be more confined to the atmosphere. The models fail to represent this transition and I have seen no warming time series that shows any acceleration of warming due to ocean stratification. Warming is always gradual reflecting the emissions scenario even if there is noise superimposed on it.

Having dealt with an ocean model, it is likely that the eddy diffusion (viscosity) parameterizations used in IPCC ocean models are way too strong. This would obliterate the thermocline heat-flux barrier sensitivity. Such models would not exhibit the atmosphere heating transition described above. The conclusions are that slab ocean model GCM climate simulations are under-estimating the heat trapping in the system. If the slab oceans are acting like the top layer of thermocline segregated oceans, then the 90% heat sink (a lot of which goes into the deep ocean) effect is underestimated. So any overlap between these models and the observed temperature time slices implies too little warming since the atmosphere is getting more warming in these models than in reality. In the case of newer coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the tuning is done to reproduce previous GCM results. Having too much ocean eddy diffusion does not automatically imply that the coupled ocean-atmosphere models would be colder since the heat uptake at the surface is done differently compared to slab ocean models. Real oceans require wave action and horizontal surface heating gradients (think of sunlight through clouds) to couple to the atmosphere. Slab ocean models are just point-wise (lat-lon) conductive boundary conditions on the atmosphere. Lots of room for tuning voodoo.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 12 Aug 2019, 22:58:40

dis, it amazes me that someone of your obvious intellectual caliber and expertise bothers with us blowhard any more. We're clearly out of your depth.

And I wonder more and more why I bother tangling with this bunch of miscreants any more.

Sad, but this looks like one fewer forum where all sides get a fair shake.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 13 Aug 2019, 10:16:11

rockdoc123 wrote:I don't think there is anyone out there "holding back".


BS. I've read exposes that say just that, that many scientists talk apocalyptically to themselves but downplay the official report so as not to create Children of Men levels of despair.

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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 13 Aug 2019, 10:28:04

That’s my take as well. Besides McKibben noted above I heard a podcast to a very small audience by the guy behind the Global Footprint. He contended that the Footprint was NOT indicating the permanent loss of productivity, thus the Footprint was actually much worse than shown. But he declined to discuss with a wider audience for the above stated reasons.
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