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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 09:00:57

...and all the rest of the world's oil producers are post peak oil and in decline.

...and the U.S production comes from shale and Canada's from tar.

Well...that at least gives us three nations with conventional oil production that haven't peaked.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 09:11:46

Yoshua wrote:...and all the rest of the world's oil producers are post peak oil and in decline.

...and the U.S production comes from shale and Canada's from tar.

Well...that at least gives us three nations with conventional oil production that haven't peaked.

Show us your list and where you got it.
And your car cares not wither it's gas came from conventional oil , fracked tight oil or tar sands.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 09:16:52

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 14:00:06

From the EIA I get that of the top twenty producers ten are increasing production while ten are declining. The biggest loser by far is Venezuela at 1.07mbpd loss followed by Mexico (-0.52) and China (-0.360). Added together the losses for those ten amount to 2.65 mbpd which has been more then made up for by the USA's increase of 2.7mbpd with the other nine increases bring the world to it's present high.
As the top losers are both driven by mismanagement more then geology I'd say it is premature to call peak just yet.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 16:36:17

I think that Saudi Arabia can increase the production by 2mmbpd...but they want higher oil prices and are cutting production.

Venezuela could probably technically produce 10 mmbpd but can't even keep the lights on with today's oil price.

Peak oil will probably be a very complex event that most of us won't understand scientifically.

Energy runs the economy and not the other way around.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 17:13:56

The current price is not Venezuela's problem.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 06 Apr 2019, 02:22:46

Venezuela's problem is the depletion of conventional oil. The oil sands they are left with is very energy intensive and expensive to produce.

Another problem Venezuela is facing is that no one needs their extra heavy oil. We are in an oil glut again as inventories are rising.

Peak auto is another phenomenon that is causing a gasoline glut and refinery spreads to turn negative. With less cars there is less demand for gasoline.

Peak oil is going to be a very complex matter. But then again...peak oil is when production peaks and declines for any reason.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 06 Apr 2019, 02:39:52

Revi wrote:Okay, now, can we get back to the peak oil debate? I have a feeling that we are on the edge of the Ugo Bardi Seneca Cliff. We are beginning to see over the edge. It would be nice to hang out here on the rim, checking out the view, but it looks like we are on our way down soon.
Image

Year after year, decade after decade, doomers keep claiming that we are at the point just before the big crash. And you know the track record on such predictions.

1). So why keep saying that unless something meaningful has changed, since if not, the results of such predictions are inevitably the same as the last failed predictions?

2). What do you know that the EIA and the IEA don't, since they're predicting the plateau to continue until 2040, or possibly 2050? (And that's as far as they predict, so then we'll have to see). Their track records re predictions are far from perfect, but overall they're reasonable, unlike the fast crash doomer track records.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Cog » Sat 06 Apr 2019, 03:36:01

Doom twenty years from now isn't near as exciting as impending doom or doom that the infamous "they" don't want you to know about.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 06 Apr 2019, 10:28:21

Algeria with a population of 40 million and post peak oil seems to be next nation to collapse.

The protests in Algeria starts after the Friday prayers, which indicates that the Islamists will take power in Algeria when the current regime falls.

Syria and Yemen have collapsed. Venezuela is on the brink of collapse. The world will perhaps not collapse together at the same time...but nation after nation.

https://www.france24.com/en/20190405-al ... employment
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby yportne » Sat 06 Apr 2019, 11:58:55

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 11:35:54

War in Libya. The eastern government backed by Russia, Egypt, UAE and France has launched an attack against the capitol Tripoli and the western government backed by the U.S, Turkey and Italy.

The aim seems to to control the entire Libyan nation and its oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... olitics-vp
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 02:02:20



Where's the obituary?

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby yportne » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 16:36:39

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 10:44:30

Chris Clugston’s book “Scarcity”? Here is a summary/review:

https://www.ecologise.in/wp-content/upl ... ugston.pdf

“Clugston argues that our modern industrialized civilization and improving standards of
living are made possible by an indispensable use of fossil fuels, metals, and non-metallic
minerals that are never replenished in any relevant time span. There are 89 of these nonrenewable minerals and Clugston meticulously analyses each. Those that are viable
economically are becoming scarcer and more costly. When their extraction/ production
ceases to rise, as is now happening, it is inevitable that a sharp decline in global societal
wellbeing must follow. Indeed, he shows that the Great Recession of 2008 was
precipitated by the rising costs of non-renewable natural resources NNRs.”
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 14:13:19

"Peak Rare Earths" was kicked around and ultimately discredited about three years back. All such substances can be recovered fron the oceans, if only you have the available energy....
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 14:40:52

yportne wrote:https://candobetter.net/node/5739?fbclid=IwAR2jGX1LYjlh-tQO-d3inQPdIxjV7vGWLx4FSOgurIQLc9QSiVNoSuMHZUA


He looks about how I expected him to look. He joins a growing number of other doomers who are, ahem, dying off before the fabled die-off occurs. All doom is ultimately personal and usually mundane.

Also rather strange that he chose to bugout in Hawaii of all places. Hardly a sustainable location despite a growing amount of solar being used.

We'll see how long his site stays up. It's been an anachronistic museum-piece for some time now.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Wed 01 May 2019, 14:19:16

Will shale oil make money? Not according to this article:

https://srsroccoreport.com/shale-stock- ... -industry/
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 05 May 2019, 22:24:22

Revi wrote:Will shale oil make money? Not according to this article:

https://srsroccoreport.com/shale-stock- ... -industry/


References matter. Steve St. Angelo's experience in the oil industry might be....?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 12 May 2019, 12:15:43

Another U.S coal company files for bankruptcy. U.S coal production peaked a decade ago. The EROEI of coal is deteriorating as well.

https://www-foxnews-com.cdn.ampproject. ... bankruptcy
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