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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 Mar 2019, 12:11:24

Revi wrote:I am not as worried about the whole world system crashing. I am a bit concerned about the US. We don't seem to have much of a plan for living with less fossil fuel. We have gigantic cars, electricity use is crazy, and we don't want to consider living like the rest of the world (or even western Europe, where they live just fine). I think we may be brought down to their standard, and it's not going to be fun. Driving around in trucks that get about the same mileage as school busses can't be sustainable. I think we're going to be in trouble with just a little bump in interest rates, or the price of gas in this country. Imagine if there is an actual supply problem.

I agree that this is absolute MADNESS. Not just economically, but as far as AGW, it's just galactically stupid. Here we are, with much of the real world very concerned about dealing with and paying for climate change issues in coming decades (and beyond), -- and yet accelerating the affects like mad by driving the WORST VEHICLES IMAGINABLE in the millions. Oh, and re the SUV craze, driving very BAD vehicle designs for fuel efficiency, in the mainstream. Can anyone say "stupider than bacteria?

A steadily rising gas tax, to lessen such madness and to speed up the transition to EV's (or at least efficient ICE's) is a blindingly obvious good thing to do. And yet, TPTB, whether left or right, do little to nothing re real world efforts, toward this at a national level.

And I know, there will be bleating here about "freedom", but we should NOT be free to mindlessly destroy the biosphere. And again, every additional dollar raised for higher fuel taxes can be offset with lower income taxes. And there can be provisions made for the poor -- at least for those who can't bike, walk, take the bus, etc.

We Americans, as a society, richly deserve the consequences of our actions.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Wed 20 Mar 2019, 12:15:40

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And yet, TPTB, whether left or right, do little to nothing re real world efforts, toward this at a national level.

Riiiight, they're all the same
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... 155cb598bf
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Mar 2019, 14:21:35

The pendulum is swinging back toward the Ds right now. Chances are the Ds will do very well in the 2020 election and President Beato will have his chance to solve the climate change problem and the peak oil problem and the white privilege problem and the racial reparations problem and and the circumcision problem and all the other problems and ills of the world that the Ds are currently focused on.

My bet is that ultimately the Ds will say lots of nice things but wind up accomplishing as little as Obama did.

Cheers!
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People who buy new cars and then cry crocodile tears over climate change. The manufacture of a typical new car emits ca. 16 tons of CO2 and a new EV is actually much worse since the battery also has to be manufactured, resulting in a total carbon footprint of ca. 30 tons of CO2
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 20 Mar 2019, 17:16:38

Plantagenet wrote:My bet is that ultimately the Ds will say lots of nice things but wind up accomplishing as little as Obama did.


How depressing. Maybe jump on a plane again and pollute some more to take your mind off how politicians can't stop people like you from polluting?

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Thu 21 Mar 2019, 07:16:02

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I agree that this is absolute MADNESS. Not just economically, but as far as AGW, it's just galactically stupid. Here we are, with much of the real world very concerned about dealing with and paying for climate change issues in coming decades (and beyond), -- and yet accelerating the affects like mad by driving the WORST VEHICLES IMAGINABLE in the millions. Oh, and re the SUV craze, driving very BAD vehicle designs for fuel efficiency, in the mainstream. Can anyone say "stupider than bacteria?

A steadily rising gas tax, to lessen such madness and to speed up the transition to EV's (or at least efficient ICE's) is a blindingly obvious good thing to do. And yet, TPTB, whether left or right, do little to nothing re real world efforts, toward this at a national level.

And I know, there will be bleating here about "freedom", but we should NOT be free to mindlessly destroy the biosphere. And again, every additional dollar raised for higher fuel taxes can be offset with lower income taxes. And there can be provisions made for the poor -- at least for those who can't bike, walk, take the bus, etc.

We Americans, as a society, richly deserve the consequences of our actions.


In Europe they got everyone into diesels, and now diesel is hard to find, so they are in trouble. The Yellow Vesters are burning up shops and causing all sorts of trouble even though they dropped the diesel tax. We are going to hang on to the fossil fuel fiesta as long as possible, but we are a lot like Venezuela, subsidizing gas until the end of the game.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Mon 25 Mar 2019, 09:15:51

How about this? Did we hit peak in 2018?:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ction.html
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Mon 25 Mar 2019, 10:43:01

Ron's called peak more often than me.
It could be that coincidental factors obscure the peak, who knows?
It isn't the coincidences and the absolute number that counts, it's when your card is declined, that's peak, LOL
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 07:04:33

Algeria another nation post peak oil with mass protests against the ruling elite. Another nation that wants to vote for prosperity. Another nation heading towards an Arab Spring...and then Arab Winter, chaos and war?

Our own Rockdoc has worked in Algeria...but there's only so much magic he can do.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47746938
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 11:04:38

With Algeria I think it is going to head the same way as Libya did post Gadafi. To this point in time Boutifleka and his national party have keep things under control. The FIS (Federation Islamique salvation) were a problem for sometime back in the nineties but Boutifleka took a very hard handed approach, hence no more problem. With the national party no longer in charge there is a danger that the islamic party will gain control. When I worked in Algeria the educated professionals were really ticked off at the application of islamic laws. Most of them were fairly European in their lifestyes, preferred to speak French or French with a smattering of Berber mixed in. Many did not speak Arabic at all until it became law. The professional women were not pleased about having to wear head coverings or dress in a particular manner. But even with those changes women still held senior positions in Sonatrach and the government and life certainly wasn't what one would expect in an islamic state. My worry is once the youth toss out Boutifleka the country will immediately go completely islamic with sharia law etc.
For some reason it seems that certain countries run more efficiently under the rule of a benevolent strong man. That was certainly the case in Libya and Egypt and I suspect it will prove to be the case in Algeria as well. Time will tell.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 13:28:05

Algeria is burning through its foreign reserves as its export revenues are falling and at the same time having difficulties in cutting its import expenses without igniting a revolution among its population.

Europe is dependent on Algerian oil and natural gas imports...as well on food exports to Algeria...and will most likely make an intervention to stop the Islamists in Algeria.

From what I have read about Libya is that the nation today has two governments. The eastern government is supported by Russia and France...while the western government is supported by the U.S. and Turkey and Italy...which is a bit confusing...maybe it's just good old divide and rule?
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 07:05:53

rockdoc123 wrote:For some reason it seems that certain countries run more efficiently under the rule of a benevolent strong man. That was certainly the case in Libya and Egypt and I suspect it will prove to be the case in Algeria as well. Time will tell.

Benevolent being the key word there. A benevolent and wise dictator can do a good job for his country just because he doesn't have to placate any opposition with compromises that diminish effectiveness. Unfortunately dictators that are both benevolent and wise are an endangered species and the USA has a terrible record or trying to pick them out and place them in power.
Why you think Qaddafi was anything more then the run of the mill kleptocrate strongman is a mystery to me.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 07:59:11

Legacy declines now exceed what new oil can be brought online. Between Shale and conventional the declines are now at least 4 mb/d per year, and that will be increasing with each and every coming year. That is by definition Peak, and this can be verified from simple mathematical relationships. Investors don't have as much problem with grade school mathematics as the paid misinformation crowd, and other general illiterates do here. The situation is rapidly becoming common knowledge among the investment community. How investors will react to a declining world GDP will depend on where they are. What we are seeing now is massive flows into bonds, and massive outflows from equities. It would be reasonable to assume that this trend will continue as world GDP falls with falling crude production for at least the next couple of years. Falling GDP means lower sales revenue, lower profits, and greater debt service costs. Investors will respond by dropping the follow the FED, or BTFD strategy, and return to value investing. At that point the CB will have lost control and volatility will be exploding. Being able to out maneuver risk is going to again become the hallmark of a good trader. Peak will be changing the way the world does business!

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 10:45:37

Why you think Qaddafi was anything more then the run of the mill kleptocrate strongman is a mystery to me.


I worked on projects in Libya for sometime back when he was still in charge and I have a very good friend who has been in-country since he was over thrown dealing with enormous security issues that have resulted.

The country is a real mish mash of various tribes all with very different desires. Qaddafi or Gaddafi or however you want to translate from the Arabic was the one person who was able to unite those tribes. Tribal conflicts were numerous prior to that and non-existent during his rule. The average person had pretty much all their needs. Petrol was subsidized so that the poorest individual could afford to fill his truck in order to transport olives or vegetables, fish etc. Housing was cheap and readily available. Arguably I spent much of my time in and around Tripoli and Benghazi and the coast (where 90% of the population is) but I never witnessed any poverty, certainly not like I had seen in Abuja or Cairo. Gaddafi was also responsible for installing the great man made river which entailed about 3000 km of huge concrete pipe which runs from the deep desert near Sarir all the way to the coast in order to bring much needed fresh water which improved lifestyle and commercial agriculture immensely. I also noted that Tripoli was, without doubt, the one city I felt very safe wandering around in. There was virtually no random crime and the streets were very clean. There was a less than obvious police presence everywhere (at night you would occasionally pass a car parked on the street which had two members of the security force sitting in it. Canadian and European Expats I knew lived in a compound just outside of Tripoli but that was less for their protection than it was to keep them from screwing up the average Libyans lifestyle. The bottom line is that when you compare Gaddafi to someone like Bongo what you find is a leader who honestly cared for his country and people. The oil money was reinvested to help the people whereas in Gabon virtually none of it made it out of the hands of Bongo and his elite. Certainly Gaddafi and his family were taking a share of the wealth (such is Africa) but there was still a lot going back into the country and the hands of the people. He was certainly as crazy as a soup sandwich and his sons were a few bricks short of a load but when compared to many of the other rulers he did do good for the country. That is why I separate him out.
As usual the press focuses on all the bad things about him which isn't surprising. You didn't fully understand what was going on unless you had been there. The fact the country fell apart like it did once he was no longer in power is instructive. According to my contact there is more corruption, more fighting and less security for all than there ever was under his rule and the average citizen no longer has any protections.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 11:32:08

Fair enough. point taken.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 08:34:58

Thanks for that post Short on Oil. It's very interesting watching what's going on with this juggernaut. A lot of people are going to be very unhappy and looking for scapegoats. It looks like they are going to be taking on Mexico, Central America and Venezuela next.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby marmico » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 10:02:21

Saudi Aramco financial statements.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/ ... net-profit

Wowser. $224 billion EBITA.

The ETP Bozo can put on the dunce cap and head to the corner muttering about camel jockeys.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 14:01:02

marmico wrote:Saudi Aramco financial statements.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/ ... net-profit

Wowser. $224 billion EBITA.

The ETP Bozo can put on the dunce cap and head to the corner muttering about camel jockeys.

Yeah, funny how the entire oil business is losing so much money, even while in the real world, huge cash flows and big profits are the order of the day for so many big oil companies.

But it's DOOOOOOOOOOOOM, because shorty says (pick various insanity's, inanities, or random charts based on bad data, failed predictions, etc). :roll:

And THEN he wonders why he's not taken seriously by people who can comprehend data.

Probably time for him to hurl a bunch of meaningless, false insults, like a 5 year old.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 10:05:32

Okay, now, can we get back to the peak oil debate? I have a feeling that we are on the edge of the Ugo Bardi Seneca Cliff. We are beginning to see over the edge. It would be nice to hang out here on the rim, checking out the view, but it looks like we are on our way down soon.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 05:37:06

Matt Simmons was right about peak and decline of the Saudi super giant Ghawar oil field. But he failed to see that Saudi Arabia could compensate the decline of Ghawar by bringing on line other giant fields.

Still most of the oil producing nations are post peak oil today...and they don't have giant oil fields to compensate for their declines.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 08:51:48

Yoshua wrote:Matt Simmons was right about peak and decline of the Saudi super giant Ghawar oil field. But he failed to see that Saudi Arabia could compensate the decline of Ghawar by bringing on line other giant fields.

Still most of the oil producing nations are post peak oil today...and they don't have giant oil fields to compensate for their declines.

Wrong again. :razz: Of the top six producers in the world only China is in decline.
https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/
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