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The U.S., energy producing superpower

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 09:33:17

The Petrostate's in the Middle East are shipping out oil and money. A weird situation. How long can they go on ? When they run out of money they will turn into Venezuela.


At their present rate Saudi Arabia will have burned through their $750 billion SWF in about 3 to 4 years. Their depleted out old fields can no longer produce enough oil to cover the Kingdom's cost. Once they can no longer feed their populations they will blow up into a hundred little factions fighting over the scraps. Saudi Arabia is a good example of what the entire world is now facing.

60% of the world's production comes from less than 1% of its fields; they are the old depleted out Giants; many of them are found in the Middle East. They are the glue that holds the entire world's geopolitical fabric together; they supply 6 out of every 10 barrels of the world's economic life blood; oil. Like Saudi Arabia's Giants they will soon no longer be able to produce enough oil to hold together the world's economies, and societies. Like Saudi Arabia the world will blow up into a thousand little factions fighting over the scraps. When oil can no longer power enough of the world's economies to keep a global integrated production system functioning it will dissolve into chaos from its own internal strife. Petroleum's ability to power the world's economy does not have to fall to zero to crash the present system. It only has to fall far enough to tear apart some of the societies that are required to keep it functioning.

Today we see a world in economic and political turmoil. Nations around the globe are dissolving into internal chaos. Economics and politics are tearing apart once stable and productive societies. Depletion of the world's most essential commodity is being felt at every corner of the globe. There is no need for waiting to see the effects of the end of the oil age; they are already here!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

There will be many who disagree with such a determination. There will also be many who will in the future be sitting in their caves and grass huts trying to determine why their Iphones no longer work.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 14:18:09

This thread is symptomatic of the discourse here.

I really think we passed a point of no return as far as any sort of true dialogue between perma-doomers and moderates.

It's really nothing but filibustering at this point, where the doomer theses just gets stated again and again and again.

What's the point, really? To be the last man standing on a forum that already only has a dozen or so active posters left?

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 14:47:31

asg70 wrote:This thread is symptomatic of the discourse here.

I really think we passed a point of no return as far as any sort of true dialogue between perma-doomers and moderates.

It's really nothing but filibustering at this point, where the doomer theses just gets stated again and again and again.

What's the point, really? To be the last man standing on a forum that already only has a dozen or so active posters left?


More and more it seems like that i true, and of the dozen remainng two are Moderators as well a being somewhat moderate in their view of the next few years.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 15:28:41

The US coal production is up about 15% since last years bottom. The rise in production has been explained by the rise in nat gas prices and the decline in nat gas production.

I must admit that I believed US coal to just continue to decline... even though I never been in a coal mine or held a piece of coal in my hand.

The coal production in Europe is in terminal decline though... I can assure you that.

The subject of energy and economy is extremely complex. It is an interesting subject to discuss... in any form. The end of modern humans 200,000 years of energy evolution since we learned to use fire is the biggest event ever... and we are the ones who will experience it.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 16:19:48

Oil prices are falling on heavy volume after another unexpected build in crude inventories - This is clearly not normal at this time of the year.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby marmico » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 16:31:59

BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017 Edition is out.

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/cor ... report.pdf

World proved reserves increased from 1692 billion to 1707 billion barrels with the US flat at 48 billion barrels (page 12 of the report).
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 16:43:56

2) The extraction of oil reserves peaked in 2014. Oil production has not yet
peaked because of the willingness of the financial sector to finance the
drilling of oil wells that will not pay out.


This is very much in line with a non growth economy, and central bank printing. Currency is being created that has no place to be invested where it can generate a return. In this case shale is not a singularity. It is also occurring with the FANGS, Chinese housing, auto production, and other commodities to name just a few. As long as a forcing function is being applied to an economy limited by its declining available energy mis-allocation of resources will be assured. Pouring money into non reimbursing structures that must also be maintained afterward is the epitome of digging the hole you are in ever deeper. "IF" there is a pathway out of our present dilemma it is certainly not in the direction that we are going! Until economists discover that energy falls into the same category as capital and labor they will continue to push on the provable string. Bridges to nowhere, ghost cities and costly wars will be continually pursued to the determinant of an economy that can no longer afford them.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 16:44:52

Fascinating and frightening at the same time. I guess I just can't find my Zen.

The human era has created some fascinating things and some horrifying.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 17:49:40

Observerbrb wrote:Oil prices are falling on heavy volume after another unexpected build in crude inventories - This is clearly not normal at this time of the year.


Neither was the glut and abundance revealed 2 years ago. But part and parcel of the previous structural changes in what powers our personal transport is the idea that people aren't all going to rush back to by 8 mpg gas guzzlers. I'm quite happy with using the wife's gas/electric hybrid, 45 mpg on the highway, and in town uses no gasoline at all, for months at a time. And like I said, she isn't rushing out to buy some gas guzzler like pstarr uses, regardless of how low prices go. Free fuel from work will do that for some folks.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 18:25:58

BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017 Edition is out.


Indeed and what stands out in terms of consumption is it is still rising regardless of the moaning by a bunch of people that "the world can no longer afford oil". Au contraire, obviously they can.

Consumption from the BP report

Total North America from 23753 to 23843 Kb/d
Total S & Cent America from 7139 to 6976 Kb/d
Total Europe & Eurasia from 18450 to 18793 Kb/d
Total Middle East from 9300 to 9431 Kb/d
Total Africa from 3866 to 3937 Kb/d
Total Asia Pacific from 32494 to 33577 Kb/d

IN S & Cent America the major negative was Brazil and Venezuela that are both facing economic problems unrelated to oil.

Total number of countries that saw an actual decrease in consumption/demand was 16 out of the 72 reported on.

Overall world year on year consumption increased by ~1.5 MMbpd
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 19:43:05

pstarr wrote:... raw numbers tell little
'

Actually, the numbers tell you just about everything. The numbers provide the hard data on oil production and consumption. Crunching the numbers are how you determine what the facts are.

The data says global oil consumption is still increasing. There's no sense in you continuing to dispute that. Its a fact that global oil production and consumption are continuing to go up.

Cheers!
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 20:17:54

pstarr wrote:
Observerbrb wrote:Oil prices are falling on heavy volume after another unexpected build in crude inventories - This is clearly not normal at this time of the year.

Not supposed to happen: the summer driving season.


Baloney. I'm seeing so many RVs out here, the beaches were crowded, the world of American drivers are doing the usual in pstarrs post peak world....enjoying the low fuel prices it brought about.

You need to get out more pete, you can find booze and weed in half the states west of the Mississippi nowadays, you don't need to use local supplies as an excuse to cower in place and hide from the world anymore.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 04:35:56

The BP report shows that oil producing economies are consuming more oil... while non oil producing economies are consuming less oil ?

Isn't that exactly what some model claimed ?

Brazil and Venezuela are the exceptions since they have decided to get some fresh air and exercise in the streets instead of burning gasoline... except for a Molotov cocktail here and there to light up the night sky.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 09:56:18

That is why I chose to emphasize the Euro region. It is heavily dependent on oil imports and consumption had crashed with only minor rebound. It is a special very important case: a highly industrial oil-dependent region that is is suffering. Because it has little of its own oil.


It is suffering because their collective economies are in the tank and have been for a long time for reasons completely unrelated to oil prices. This was pointed out in extreme detail on a previous thread that you conveniently ignored. And lets be honest the only reason you focus on the few countries that have seen declines in consumption is because that fits your narrative. Forget the fact they make up a small percentage of the total consumption (the Euro countries decrease in consumption is less than 1% of the total world consumption).

Whereas your aggregated BP data (Euro plus Eurasia) includes new oil-producing outliers, the "stans". They have only begun recently to produce, export and consume large amounts of oil. Of course their consumption is growing.


According to you and the other ETP clown college graduates nobody can afford oil anymore…but here you state consumption is growing. :roll:

You politicized Brazil and Venezuala oil problems. Venezuela has the worlds largest reserves of p0 useless oil. Hardly to be produced at any price. What happened to Argentina's much vaunted long-in-tooth shale miracle? And Brazil's deep water.


And what does that have to do with consumption? Nothing. Venezuela and Brazil’s consumption have decreased because they are both in the middle of an economic crisis. And Argentina has been experiencing above 25% inflation for the last 5 years, the populace up until very recently were not allowed to exchange pesos for dollars and the unions have a stranglehold on industrial growth.

the numbers are going up but primarily among certain oil producers


obviously some cognitive dissonance going on here as we are talking about consumption not production. And 80% of the countries saw increases in consumption…hardly “certain oil producers” (example Pakistan consumption increased 12% in 2016 and they produce negligible oil).
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 11:12:10

The export model on top of the etp model will aggravate the situation even more and makes it even more explosive.

Human behaviour on top of physical laws will shorten the time to the deadline.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 11:19:20

I am a clown. There are intelligent people on this site, but only one that is that really intelligent.

The people we call Ashkenazi Jews are the descendants of four Italian women... and as far as I know there is only one of them on this site.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Observerbrb » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 11:22:07

WTI Oil price 44$ handle. Testing year lows again...
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 15:09:54

Canary in the Community Golf Course

They are all going broke because of higher costs of oil based energy (water, fertilizer). Can't hide the inflation, green fees have gone steadily up. Can't be papered over by the rich because they don't go to community golf courses and don't care. No offshoring, onshoring, A.I, etc to enable the funny money either and the costs are predominantly energy, not labor. Show me a graph of community golf course fees from 1981 to now. The 'Peak Oil Brigade' was not defeated on the golf course by shale.

Lets face it, the USA went bankrupt in 1973, Bretton woods ended and currency went to float, then it went broke again in 1981 by inflation. Thats when the funny money (futures contracts (derivatives)) started to control the price of oil and "defeated" the Soviet Union in 1991. Putin took power and the oil price skyrocketed until 2008. Now the same funny money is being used to bankrupt Putin by driving down the "price" of oil via futures.

Shale causes economic contraction. The "Superpower" is powered by economic contraction and the slave trade to bankrupt oil producing states (and itself) by derivatives funny money. Shale is killing the USA, not the other way round.
Last edited by StarvingLion on Wed 14 Jun 2017, 15:51:35, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 15:46:21

Mittwitt Romney: "You're all a bunch of freeloaders. I had to go to school 23 years in order to learn how to press this computer key to give myself 0% "Free" "Money" so that Shale drillers could be put to work to lose a trillion dollars. Now you all go out and buy an oxymoron called the Stock Market Guaranteed Certificate and await the following glorious technologies:"

A.I. - its the electronic equivalent of Pol Pots Killing Fields. Herd them onto the internet, then kill'em.

Cloud Computing - Thats where all your possessions are digitized and then stolen as you no longer own the data.

Nuclear Reactors - Thats forced labor camps, closed cities where you go in but do not come out.

Solar Cell - Thats where you turn the light switch on and nothing happens

Shale Drilling - Mass bankruptices outside of Club Quantum (the fed).
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 17:27:37

Yoshua wrote:The export model on top of the etp model will aggravate the situation even more and makes it even more explosive.


Neither model makes anything more explosive. Jeff Brown has been terribly scarce after it turns out that he couldn't predict oil production in the state where he works, and the etp is just amusing, although not near as amusing as those who fall for it.
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