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Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby gg3 » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 00:58:57

I've lately started coming to the conclusion that what people say they would do in a collapse scenario is what they would like to do anyway.


--- Pioneers in cubicles; the frontier comes to you ---

The seductive thing about collapse scenarios is that they raise the prospect of a new kind of freedom: a pioneer future, bringing the frontier home. Americans (and possibly Australians?) understand this in their guts; as our histories contain the recent archetypes of the pioneer and the frontier.

The frontier is a place of rugged individualism and collectivity-by-necessity. It is home to a life that is just beyond the reach of the industrial economy. It is a somewhat-liberated zone, where the lawful order is not quite established.

That past has a powerful resonance for the cubicle-bound denizens of a declining empire. The primary difference is that the historic frontier is a place at the leading edge of growth, whereas the present condition is one at the leading edge of decay. There is good reason to want to trade the sense of decline for the sense of potential.

Today you can be a pioneer just by staying where you are, as the boundaries of civilization are set to retreat. One might envision it as a movie of historic maps run backward; the shrinking and disappearance of cities, the receding gray line of steel and concrete dwindling back ultimately to its origins, almost as if the Western states and then the Southern were disappearing one by one as the Union shrinks back to the original thirteen colonies. One could almost envision transcontinental telephone and telegraph lines being wound back onto their cable drums, and the steel rails of the Iron Horse being pried loose from the westward ground and shipped back to Eastern mills from whence they came.

This blending of the past and the future is seductive. Think of sitting around the cowboy campfire, with strong coffee from an ancient percolator, a notebook computer in your lap, the stars in the night sky above, and the howling of distant mobs, rather than coyotes, somewhere off in the darkness. But every seduction has its downside; the bitter that goes with the sweet.


--- What you see out there is yourself ---

The Rorschach test was the classic "inkblot" test from the seemingly ancient past when psychiatry was as much an art as a science, new and still searching for the links between body, mind, and spirit.

Gazing at the almost-random splotches, you could daydream like a child seeing castles in clouds, and the good doctor would note the patterns of your fantasies and make educated inferences about your deeper nature. Today it seems quaint.

And today we have the Decline and Fall as the canvas for our daydreams, the screen upon which we project all including our deepest desires.


--- Reflections in the digital mirrors ---

If the lights go out...

If the economy breaks...

If the raging mobs are rioting...

When we move to the farm or forest...

When we rebuild the cities (or raze them)...

How to build, how to trade, how to fight, how to govern...

And most pointedly, how to treat others.

Listen closely when people talk about what they *would* do under this or that scenario. It may have much to say about what they wish, more than anything, they could do right now.
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby cynthia » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 03:25:06

Yes! Yes! and Yes! Thank you gg3.
I live pretty much today how I'd like to live. Yet I've stock-piled materials (literally fabric) that I envison I'll have time to fiddle with once TSHTF.
I pine for the old ways. And I've not spent one money earning day in a cubicle.
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby TT » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 03:43:01

I completely agree. Thank you GG3.

Just after I became aware of peak oil I started to think about the future of my ability to travel and where I wanted to be post peak.

I then realised that I really wanted to go back to where I came from - a small farming community in Victoria, Australia.

I also realised that I really hated where I presently lived but had just refused to face my dislike of this semi-suburbia.

So we made the decision to sell here and go back to where our hearts and family are. This place will be good for us post-peak, but it will also be great for us in the interim.

Becoming aware of peak oil finally gave me the incentive to take a step that I had really wanted to take for a long time. I think I'd just become too complacent and hadn't been prepared to admit that I was really home sick. I really needed a kick in the pants to make me realise what was most important to me.

I really owe the people on this forum a huge debt. Without these wonderful threads and frank discussions I doubt I would have allowed myself to think about what I wanted to do and would just have continued with my day to day existance.

It's good to be able to communicate with like minded people (and a few who are not so like minded).

Just wondering also - are any members here from around Melbourne in Australia?
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby orz » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 04:43:47

Unlike a majority of the posters here, I love society, with all its flaws and injustices. This is also perhaps because I am one of the younger posters on the board. I believe in a baseline, that is how good or bad you believe an experience to be is relative to where you started out from. For example, getting a house with running water would be a miracle in the eyes of a Somalian farmer, but just bleh to a Westerner. I don't believe in a completely equal society, because conflict is essence of the human spirit and if you have nothing to work towards on an individual basis , then you have nothing to live for IMO. That being said, I truly believe that given a few more decades, we could raise the collective baseline of the entire world through technology, at least to the point where the necessities of life are covered for all. I still haven't given up on society.

But...

I do want to get my family prepared. Step #1 is to convince them to move out of the suburb, preferably out of the country altogether, because if TSHTF then you would want to stick with close family, and well we don't have ANY other family here. Not an easy task, but one I need to do, and do face to face, which is why I haven't brough the issue up with them yet.

I plan to finish my undergrad and possibly grad, depending on when peak happens and how bad it is. In any case, I plan to work on improving alternatives as long as it is necessary or as long as the lights stay on in the lab. :roll:

Meanwhile, I'll try to pick up some survivalist skills, just to be prepared. I'm pretty sure that most of you geezers will miss the reference, but I'm shooting for the Gordon Freeman image. :P

And if things really go to hell, well then I'll bail and try to get to my family, who hopefully are in a more secure condition, and I'll try to get things going there with whatever limited resources I may or may not have.


I'll do whatever is necessary. Hope(and work towards) for the best, but prepare for the worst. How much of my plan will actually come to fruition, that we'll have to see.
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 06:58:58

My collapse scenario goes something like this:

"We'll all get a lot poorer, except the very wealthy."

I'm living the way I want to, and making the transition to a lower energy way of life because I think it's the prudent thing to do, and very interesting.
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby gg3 » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 07:10:40

Interesting comments so far.

I too have a deep appreciation for civilization, starting with clean indoor drinking water and electricity, but excluding its excesses and injustices.

Something to think about:

We have all seen postings by people who talk at length about what amounts to a lawless life of "piracy on dry land," subsistence via raiding and looting, or else shooting those who would raid and loot them; rationalized by various forms of social darwinism or by Hobbesian predictions made with an almost-visible anticipation.

And we have all seen postings by those who forecast a future of material scarcity made bearable by a culture of frugality and cooperation among small communities, a life in which personal and spiritual values rise to the forefront; a life that is said to be more fulfilling than the superficiality and excess of present times.

For all of these predictions, these alternative futures ranging from vicious to paradisical, where are the reflections-of-self...? How much of what we see there is the inner life of the writer, projected onto the canvas of the collapse scenario?
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby Guest » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:39:10

I've lately started coming to the conclusion that what people say they would do in a collapse scenario is what they would like to do anyway.


More pop psychoanalysis.

How did we get from Peak Oil to speculating about the motives of posters?
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby killJOY » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:41:48

(Once again, that was me, not "Guest." That's been happening frequently.)
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby Jack » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 08:42:21

A most interesting post, gg3.

Let's see now...

If the lights go out...I'll be glad I have the equipment to mitigate the inconvenience.

If the economy breaks...I'm going to make a ton of money.

If the raging mobs are rioting...they would be wise to avoid attacking me. You recall, gg3, that I have the necessary equipment to deal with them proactively.

When we move to the farm or forest...I'll try to find sharecroppers or cheap labor to do the work.

When we rebuild the cities (or raze them)...we'd be better off with smaller communities with strictly enforced building codes.

How to build, how to trade, how to fight, how to govern...build for durability and defensibility; trade for maximum profit; fight to win, because second place means death; govern with an eye to defence.

And most pointedly, how to treat others. As potential competitors, and potential allies, in a battle for survival.

All of which should reveal what a happy-go-lucky fellow I am! 8)
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby Pops » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 11:04:18

Great stuff gg3, certainly none of us can completely separate ourselves from our experience and worldview.

Of course it’s much more entertaining (and less work) to play the PO version of Doom than actually do the work of changing one’s lifestyle in preparation for more expensive energy.

For a majority of us that have known nothing but a paycheck, ignition switch, thermostat and grocery cart, the idea that those things may someday fail could be so inconceivable that our fantasies simply ignore those, most obvious, frailties.

Compared to imagining days and weeks and months in a cold, dark, hungry apartment, or years of hoeing weeds on an isolated dirt patch, or fighting for handouts of food and water in a Hooverville somewhere; a heroic firefight makes a much more interesting daydream and certainly the vision of a carefree cowpoke happily tapping at his laptop before the communal campfire is probably pretty enticing to someone who’s never spent twelve hours in a saddle.


I guess it’s just a lot easier to imagine starting with a clean slate when there’s a slate-wiper handy.
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Re: Collapse scenarios: the new Rorschach test

Unread postby gg3 » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 21:00:18

*Pop* psychoanalysis? Killjoy, you haven't refuted, much less disproven, my starting hypothesis. And note, I haven't gone after *individual* posters, though there are a few I could tear to shreds in a half hour or less, as I did with JayBee after his call for mass-casualty terrorist attacks to "cleanse" Europe of gay people ("come friendly airliners, fall on Europe").

Jack, that all sounds moderate and sane, a far cry from some of the piratical (pirate-like) nonsense that so often fills these pages. Clearly it's smart to be prepared for defense contingencies and all the rest. What I'm going after here are those who revel in the thought of lawlessness, most of whom have no idea what it looks like on the ground (Iraq and Somalia are decent examples).

Pops, good point: that the rugged individualist and rugged collectivist lifestyles are more enticing than the probable reality of life in a lengthy and protracted recession. Sure, the latter does have its romantic moments, like when you get to burn your utility bills in the fireplace for heat:-), but dull gray subsistence is so much more boring than the thrills of the frontier.

This is also a point I've been making a lot lately at local PO meetings. The thing people need to prepare for is not that there won't be *food*, but that there won't be *jobs,* and thereby, that there won't be *rent or mortgage payments,* and thereby, that they may very well end up in the very much un-glamorous position of being homeless or couch-surfing.
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Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 10:21:58

Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-EIA-NATURE-ENERGY-SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN
http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... 1433a.html
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 4213009420
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -happened/

New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn

We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s - ASPO
http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg

Aging giant oil fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are declining (Hook, 2009)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 1509001281

Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% - Wikileaks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -wikileaks

BP 1.7 Trillion barrels proven oil reserves NOT so proven
http://crudeoilpeak.info/oil-reserves-a ... -oil-price

IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-g ... 1493244000

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-mini ... 1476870790

Saudi Aramco CEO believes oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -boom.html

UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts
http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/ ... s-5531344/

Halliburton CEO says oil will spike due to oil shortages by 2020 after Industry Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 2-trillion

Total CEO warns we are going to have oil shortages around 2020 due to lack of investment & new discoveries
http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/je ... 319b68d296

HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages ahead
https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb

UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... -bank.html

CitiBank CEO warns of oil shortages coming as soon as 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... pply-surge

Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Th ... ustry.html

Energy watchdog warns oil and electricity shortages could develop as investment falls
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/10/watchdo ... falls.html

Why investors’ should brace for a devastating oil shortage ahead around 2020
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in ... 2017-07-03

People are almost completely ignoring a looming crisis for oil
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-futu ... and-2016-9

World Oil Shortages To Lead To Oil Price Spike By 2020s, warns VP Goldman Sachs
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/ ... -Says.html

Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world's growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shal ... warns.html

China Government Study: China’s Oil Production is About to Peak in 2018 & Coal in 2020 (Wang, 2017)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 017-0187-9

Mexico Oil Reserves Gone in 9 Years Without New Finds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -new-finds

Saudi Arabia may be out of oil to export by 2030 – Citibank
http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/middleea ... 35876.html

Edinburgh Study: Only 10 years of UK’S North Sea Oil and Gas Remaining (Thompson, 2017)
https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2017/uk-oil-a ... y-a-decade

The world's largest oil trader Vitol says US oil production will peak in 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-comm ... SKBN1CF1MZ

The Mighty U.S. Shale Oil Industry to Lose Another $20 Billion In 2017
https://srsroccoreport.com/the-mighty-u ... n-in-2017/

MIT Technology Review: Shale Oil Will Boost U.S. Production, But It Won’t Bring Energy Independence
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/5074 ... ependence/

The new economic science of capitalism’s slow-burn energy collapse
https://www.alternet.org/economy/capita ... y-collapse?
akid=16235.2689436.QARiDL&rd=1&src=newsletter1084042&t=10

Long-term estimates of the (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas global productions (Court, & Fizanie, 2017)
https://victorcourt.files.wordpress.com ... erois1.pdf

EROI of different fuels and the implications for society, Energy, EROI and quality of life. (Lambert, & Hall, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 1513006447

Cornell University: Energy Studies in the College of Engineering. The Challenges of Peak Oil
http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/t ... k_oil.html

The End of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials (Chapman, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 151300342X

Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 6114010254

The Global Oil & Gas Industry Is Cannibalizing Itself To Stay Alive
https://srsroccoreport.com/warning-the- ... tay-alive/

We Could Be Witnessing the Death of the Fossil Fuel Industry—Will It Take the Rest of the Economy Down With It?
https://www.alternet.org/environment/we ... my-down-it

USA DOE Study: PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (Hirsch, 2005)
https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/o ... g_NETL.pdf

USA GAO Study: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply. Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

Australian Government (Leaked) Study: concludes world peak oil around 2017
https://web.archive.org/web/20170415190 ... s-2009.pdf

German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all manufactured products, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/P ... y%20EN.pdf

UC Davis Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q

University of Chicago Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117

WORSE THAN 2007': Top banker warns of looming wave of worldwide bankruptcies
http://www.businessinsider.com/worse-th ... ies-2016-1

The World is drowning in Debt, warns Goldman Sachs
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... Sachs.html

Perching Tree: Return of the Global Depression 2.0
https://www.perchingtree.com/return-of- ... epression/

Perfect Storm: Energy, Finance and the End of Growth -Dr Tim Morgan Global Head of Research
https://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents ... rm_009.pdf

Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08 (Hamilton, 2009)
https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles ... f-2007-08/

World Scientists “Warning to Humanity” Signed by 1,700 Scientists Including the Majority of all Nobel Prize Winners
http://www.ucsusa.org/about/1992-world- ... eKJx49Sziw

Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... no-return/

NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 0914000615

The Royal Society: Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 4/20122845

Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We're Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites ... r_2014.pdf

Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: in Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade- ... -collapse/


Simple really….when the World Economy Collapses everything shuts down…the end….we're talking about grids and JIT systems down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like f*** flies in short order…The collapse will be absolutely horrible..There is no collapse or horror movie ever produced that has even come close to imagining what the collapse of BAU might look like. I'm talking about every corporation and every social program going bankrupt at once.I'm talking about people eating people. I'm talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close.


The End of the Human Race will be that it will Eventually Die of Civilization –Ralph W Emerson
Last edited by Cliffhanger1983 on Fri 20 Oct 2017, 10:30:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 10:42:25

That ever shifting 5-10 year window toward collapse. Like end time christians never growing tired of prophecies just around the 5 year window.

Yawn.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 10:48:10

Ibon wrote:That ever shifting 5-10 year window toward collapse. Like end time christians never growing tired of prophecies just around the 5 year window.

Yawn.



You can stick your head in the sand all you want. But just remember you leave your ass exposed for the whole world to kick! HAR HAR!
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 10:52:50

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:
Ibon wrote:That ever shifting 5-10 year window toward collapse. Like end time christians never growing tired of prophecies just around the 5 year window.

Yawn.



You can stick your head in the sand all you want. But just remember you leave your ass exposed for the whole world to kick! HAR HAR!


Young earnest grasshopper telling the old man how it is! Instead of getting mad I find it almost endearing.......
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 10:57:33

Ibon - But look at all the references of smart folks that say the world has reached peak oil...or at least peak conventional oil. And as we all know once we've reached peak it just a matter of several years before there's an insufficient amount of oil to maintain the global economy. Thus not too many years later collapse of the world's economy is inevitable.

So this time that 5 year time line MUST be correct. LOL.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 11:05:38

I don"t know about full total collapse by 2025 for sure. But I know we are living akin to what Pstarr stated already a slow motion collapse. Look at the Debt situation amassing enormous cumulative debt just to stay afloat a while longer. All SO unsustainable thus ready to collapse
OH and Cliff keep posting that array of links together it is a pretty convincing argument
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 11:29:40

And of course, let's ignore the ongoing efficiency gains. Let's ignore the impressive ramp-up of solar and wind, which should be starting to get pretty significant by about 2025.

Let's pretend such things won't have a cushioning effect IF oil demand should exceed supply.

Let's also pretend the pricing mechanism won't change behavior (such as prompting far more conservation and efficiency) IF oil should become relatively scarce.

Let's also pretend any such relative shortage won't take decades to play out -- that doom must happen right away -- as though things like the undulating plateau don't exist.

Let's also pretend like green energy won't continue to become more abundant and more efficient and really reducing the demand for oil substantially over those decades -- to the point that any relative lack of supply is a minor inconvenience, at most.

...

But sure, if you spin some fantasy and ignore all the facts on the ground, you can claim any scenario you want.

Just as fast crash doomers of many stripes have been doing for many decades.

...

So what? The world isn't run by fairy tales.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 11:56:14

While we are in the pretending business lets pretend the Debt bubble and bubbles predicated on it does NOT not exist and will not pop. That Alternatives Renewable energy can be implemented without a functioning robust economy or we have decades to do it not till the year 2025. Or that the demographic entitlements is sustainable. Or that our Economy can function without the prodigious amounts of energy FF and only FF can provide. Or that automation and efficiency gains will not create further unemployment and underemployment. Must be nice to live in Denial Land
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 12:18:40

One thing that everyone should consider. Limits to growth are not "predictions" they are mathematical forecast based on computer simulations. They are used in physics, astrophysics, climatology, chemistry, biology, economics, psychology, social science, and engineering. So our collapse is a mathematical certainty.
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