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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 15:18:05

Because it the same excuse we've all heard for the last 60 years. "Peak oil is about to happen! - oh, wait, unconventional supply has filled the demand, didn't that coming, and it doesn't count either ".


obviously, you are living in another reality given the unconventionals that I was referring to (and I pointed it out when I made the original prediction that unconventionals were not included) did not start from the perspective of liquids to become important until around 2010. Lets see 2018 - 2010...8 years not 60, but maybe you missed that day in grade school where they taught basic math?

Yes, for all his degrees, expertise and all the other trophies he's got in his cabinate, he might as well be the average braindead doomer : because the only line he'll ever need to excuse all his wrong estimates is the same one they use.
Yet somehow he fools himself that he's got higher credibility than them. Nope. At least braindead doomers can be forgiven because they are too dumb to realise how lame the old peaker's excuse is.


you don't actually know what it was I was forecasting and what the basis in terms of data for that forecast was. It was all laid out in my original note over a decade ago on this site. Yet you feel confident to blather on about how I don't know what I'm doing? Get a life or at least learn to read, it will take you a long ways. :roll:

ok. And if this 'no ban' is a pardon, thanks I will try to be nice and bury the hatchett. How about restoring my original account? Can it be done?


after the three messages you just posted, full of vile comments with no logical basis? Why would you think you are worth anything other than just being continually ignored here?
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 16:04:30

>you are living in another reality given the unconventionals that I was ref...

Oh no, don't try that " I'm playing my special card that makes my wrong peak oil estimate immune to unconventional supply, or any other actual reason for peak oil not happening "
Everyone tries that.
And even if your immunity card worked, isn't it pathetic that the best expert here can't answer the raison daitre question of the site and instead is happy to do as any braindead doomer does, expound endless stream of wrong but self excused predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 18:54:20

And even if your immunity card worked, isn't it pathetic that the best expert here can't answer the raison daitre question of the site and instead is happy to do as any braindead doomer does, expound endless stream of wrong but self excused predictions.


look moron, and I mean moron in terms of all of its synonyms...I along with many here have generally avoided proposing a time for peak. Back a decade ago I said in so many words....If I had to guess based on the existing data and ignoring new discoveries of importance and based on the data from Wood Mac and IHS the time will likely be somewhere around 2012 to 2015. Well there was a sea change due to the unconventionals (essentially the same effect as new discoveries of import) and now there is a whole host of impactful events that affect price, demand and supply, meaning we are in the roller coaster that at least Rockman and me suggested would be the outcome.

Exactly what did you predict a decade ago that came true...perhaps that you would be banned from this site several times for being a complete idiot? At least you got two things right. :roll:
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 19:44:25

rockdoc123 wrote:
And even if your immunity card worked, isn't it pathetic that the best expert here can't answer the raison daitre question of the site and instead is happy to do as any braindead doomer does, expound endless stream of wrong but self excused predictions.


look moron, and I mean moron in terms of all of its synonyms...I along with many here have generally avoided proposing a time for peak. Back a decade ago I said in so many words....If I had to guess based on the existing data and ignoring new discoveries of importance and based on the data from Wood Mac and IHS the time will likely be somewhere around 2012 to 2015. Well there was a sea change due to the unconventionals (essentially the same effect as new discoveries of import) and now there is a whole host of impactful events that affect price, demand and supply, meaning we are in the roller coaster that at least Rockman and me suggested would be the outcome.

Exactly what did you predict a decade ago that came true...perhaps that you would be banned from this site several times for being a complete idiot? At least you got two things right. :roll:

Ah, OK. I'd forgotten this was the "oil is aboiotic" clown. I'd had him on ignore for awhile.

No wonder he gets banned periodically, given his behavior.

Sorry I got in the middle trying to be nice and rational -- no point in this case.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 20:33:24

If I had to guess based on the existing data and ignoring new discoveries of importance and based on the data from Wood Mac and IHS the time will likely be somewhere around 2012 to 2015.

That's not how you put it before.

rockdoc123 wrote:This is an incredibly naive response. Exactly where would that be? You seem to think there is a lot to be found/produced and what I am telling you is that is not the view of pretty much every oil company in the world nor IHS Energy nor Wood Mackenzie. The thought that you just have to look harder is an insult to the thousands of scientists and engineers who have dedicated the last decade of their careers to this task and have come to the same conclusion I have pointed out. We are running out of opportunities, not just good opportunities but opportunities in general.

You were making these predictions in August 2012, and you weren't qualifying it with "oh, unconventional oil could sweep away any peak oil prediction I make ", instead your PO prediction was backed by "every oil company in the world" and "thousands of scientists and engineers", and you were pressing me to tell you where the next major load of oil to save the world from peak would be.
why-we-shouldn-t-worry-about-end-times-t66350-40.html?hilit=2013%202015

As it happened, my response was correct.
meemoe_uk wrote:Just look everywhere again. Harder.

The new oil was under your feet, in your USA, a place where you'd already looked. Shale oil sources popped up everywhere all over the world. The industry looked in places it had already looked, and this time it found a lot more oil.

According to you, I was "incredibly naive" in 2012 for suggesting huge amounts of oil would be found in lands already explored. Well eat your words. A noob like me beat a senior oil prospector at his own game.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 20:45:53

btw how old are you rockdoc? Will you still be here in another 10 year? 15? 20? I guarantee oil production will continue to rise all that time - an unprofessional abiotic oil beilever's guarantee is worth more than all the world's professional fossil oil believers guarantee's put together.
You may be too scared to estimate when the peak will be, but your general attitude is that there will be one soon. Well you can drop that attitude and become a corny like me and OF2. Better do it now, rather than on your deathbed, that way you'll look less of a stubborn old fool.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 21:13:47

peakoilwhen wrote:btw how old are you rockdoc? Will you still be here in another 10 year? 15? 20? I guarantee oil production will continue to rise all that time - an unprofessional abiotic oil beilever's guarantee is worth more than all the world's professional fossil oil believers guarantee's put together.
You may be too scared to estimate when the peak will be, but your general attitude is that there will be one soon. Well you can drop that attitude and become a corny like me and OF2. Better do it now, rather than on your deathbed, that way you'll look less of a stubborn old fool.

When more oil is found and produced because of new and improved technologies, it doesn't mean more oil magically appeared. Just like increasing energy efficiencies in light bulb technology doesn't mean a light bulb fairy magically made it so.

Not that I'd expect your ilk to respond to logic or data, but thanks for playing.

You have lots of companions in total craziness. Flat earthers. AGW denialists. Religious fundamentalists who take religious texts as literal truth. Too bad conviction doesn't make you right.

Or do you have actual, specific, scientific proof? Like a lab which can produce abiotic oil with a specific defined process, and reproduce the results?

No? Well, the clowns claiming they could turn lead into gold had no such proof either back in the day, but hey, it's fun to dream and make spurious claims.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 22:16:24

>Or do you have actual, specific, scientific proof? Like a lab
No I don't own a laboratory.
There is no such thing as 'scientific proof'. That's just a empty buzzterm that retards who failed high school science endlessly spout.
Science requires evidence, which either falsifies or verifies a theory, but it can never prove a theory. I understood that on my 1st day of science at school, while retards like u can go 70 years and not comprehend it.

Here's lab results which verifies abiotic oil theory.
https://www.scribd.com/document/4653767 ... J-F-Kenney
petroleum is produced under mantle conditions.

You're an idiot. This site has become a time capsule from a bygone age. A time when rockefeller fooled the oil industry into thinking petroleum was a fossil fuel. Today the industry is full of properly educated people who subscribe to abiotic oil.
You don't even understand your own theory. You were supposed to have an oil peak, because you think oil is a non-renewable resource. It hasn't happened. And now we are producing over 100 million barrels a day, an insanely high amount that exceeds all historical estimates, and all you can do is forget the past and cry peak soon. 100 million, a 100 billion, or a googleplex a day, its all the same to you, you still wouldn't grasp that your theory isn't working, cos you don't even understand numbers, let alone that a limited resource will run out.

Edit: Knock off with the ad hom attacks on other members of the board. If you can not act like an adult there shall be consequences to your poor behavior.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 11:42:02

You were making these predictions in August 2012, and  and you weren't qualifying it with "oh, unconventional oil could sweep away any peak oil prediction I make ", instead your PO prediction was backed by "every oil company in the world" and "thousands of scientists and engineers", and you were pressing me to tell you where the next major load of oil to save the world from peak would be.


Complete BS. You make that statement and then use a quote that had nothing to do with the prediction I made back about a decade ago. By 2012 I no longer had up to date access to Petroconsultants and Wood Mac, I did back a decade ago which is when I made that prediction. My statement taken in it’s full context was talking about the rationale for my prediction made a number of years previous. Again reading comprehension is your friend.

The new oil was under your feet, in your USA, a place where you'd already looked. Shale oil sources popped up everywhere all over the world. The industry looked in places it had already looked, and this time it found a lot more oil.

Good God, you know nothing whatsoever about the subject. There was no “new oil”. As Rockman has pointed out time and again we have known about oil and gas in shales for many, many decades. They were the source rocks for all of the hydrocarbons which have been produced from conventional reservoirs, we knew that way back when, it was demonstrated time and time again in literally dozens of published papers. Hydrocarbons have been produced from some of these tight formations for many years, case in point being the Antrim shale which has been producing for about 60 years. The issue a decade ago was that there was no foreseeable economic means of extracting hydrocarbons from the shales and tighter siltstones. The initial wells and fracs into the Marcellus were too expensive and resulted in too little production to be an economic endeavor worth pursuing. It wasn’t until long reach horizontals and mult-stage fracs came into play that it all started to make sense. By 2012 it was obvious that shale was going to have an impact and as the economics continued to improve and oil prices rose the whole picture regarding peak changed.

According to you, I was "incredibly naive" in 2012 for suggesting huge amounts of oil would be found in lands already explored. Well eat your words. A noob like me beat a senior oil prospector at his own game


Again, either you suffer from illiteracy or you just can’t be bothered to actually read what you quote from. What I said was:

I have spent a lot of the last decade looking around the world for what are remaining large exploration targets. Outside of the shale liquids story (the US is likely the biggest followed by Argentina and maybe China or Algeria) there really isn’t anything in areas where people aren’t already exploring. If they are exploring there then it means it is economic at the current price. The idea that there are vast amounts of hydrocarbons left to be discovered that require a higher price for exploration to happen is incorrect. Again, point to such areas if you can.


In short we didn't suddenly "find" new oil in shale, we knew it was there all along but it took better prices and better technology to make it economic.

 
Today the industry is full of properly educated people who subscribe to abiotic oil.


Complete and utter horsepucky. Please name the senior executives at Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and every other major oil and gas company that subscribe to this theory. Please show where that theory has actually resulted in a discovery of oil and gas.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 13:32:30

>we have known about oil and gas in shales for many, many decades.

So you knew about these US shale reserves, but for some bent reason you didn't factor that into your peakoil prediction? Well no wonder your prediction was retarded. What a dumb thing to do. Either that or you're just wriggling like a worm on a hook now, crying that your prediction was wrong because you couldn't have known about the US shale oil reserves, but then crying that you already knew about the US shale oil reserves. Checkmate.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 14:15:18

So you knew about these US shale reserves, but for some bent reason you didn't factor that into your peakoil prediction? Well no wonder your prediction was retarded. What a dumb thing to do. Either that or you're just wriggling like a worm on a hook now, crying that your prediction was wrong because you couldn't have known about the US shale oil reserves, but then crying that you already knew about the US shale oil reserves. Checkmate.


again demonstrating your illiteracy or reluctance to read what is put in front of you. Shale extraction was not economic back when the forecast was made (~2006) and it didn't become very economic until years later, I said that a couple of times. That is why nobody accounted for it back then. Either you are trying to be a complete fool or you are just stupid, not sure which but the result is the same.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 14:53:32

...or maybe i was dumb to expect foresight from someone who purportedly knows basic market economics : prices will rise to match supply and demand. Perhaps you never got your skull around the link between rise in oil prices as extraction has become more challenging over the last 200 years.
Well at least you've hung your hat on a particular excuse for your failure. But compounded with the
facts...
- by 2005-2006 there was already a continuous fast rise in oil prices, but somehow you weren't smart enough to factor that into your predictions
- By 2012 you knew that oil prices had risen enough to make shale economic, and you knew there was a lot of shale oil. But still you saw fit to keep your prediction based on shale being uneconomic. derp
... you're still a tagged a tard.

Image
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 16:22:06

by 2005-2006 there was already a continuous fast rise in oil prices, but somehow you weren't smart enough to factor that into your predictions


and the technology to get large volumes of hydrocarbon from shales was in it's infancy. We were doing 500 m horizontals with one stage light fracs back then as opposed to the 3 km horizontals with as many as 20 stages of heavy fracs today. The analysis I did only factored in what was economic at the time, and shale was not. Just because oil prices rise rapidly in the $70 - $80 range it doesn't mean that you just turn on some sort of technology tap...it takes time for those changes to happen and for efficiencies to eventually drop costs.

- By 2012 you knew that oil prices had risen enough to make shale economic, and you knew there was a lot of shale oil. But still you saw fit to keep your prediction based on shale being uneconomic. derp
... you're still a tagged a tard.


please show a quote from me in 2012 where I said I was sticking with a 2012 - 2015 peak. I didn't say that and did not think that. It was clear as the shales became more important that they would change the face of global peak.

Not sure why you are on this kick in the first place. You apparently want to make everyone believe that abiotic oil is the reason for increasing production. Nothing and I truly mean nothing could be more stupid.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 16:27:15

peakoilwhen wrote:>we have known about oil and gas in shales for many, many decades.

So you knew about these US shale reserves, but for some bent reason you didn't factor that into your peakoil prediction? Well no wonder your prediction was retarded. What a dumb thing to do. Either that or you're just wriggling like a worm on a hook now, crying that your prediction was wrong because you couldn't have known about the US shale oil reserves, but then crying that you already knew about the US shale oil reserves. Checkmate.


Hubbert included shale oil and tar sands in his 1956 presention on Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, starting on page 4. He didn’t see them as technologically recoverable sources in the 10-15 year span of his forecast.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf
Don't deny the peak!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 17:59:58

jawagord wrote:Hubbert included shale oil and tar sands in his 1956 presention on Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, starting on page 4. He didn’t see them as technologically recoverable ...


Well, Hubbert was wrong about that, wasn't he?

Thats why Hubbert's prediction of global peak oil occurring ca. 2000 was so wrong.

So....given the successful production of significant amounts of oil from tight oil shale, when do you think we'll reach peak oil in the future?

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sun 24 Mar 2019, 00:48:24

> The analysis I did only factored in what was economic at the time, and shale was not.

Yes you've made that clear already. What a foolish mistake.

please show a quote from me in 2012 where I said I was sticking with a 2012 - 2015 peak. I didn't say that and did not think that. It was clear as the shales became more important that they would change the face of global peak.

Don't try that. As late as December 2012 I was still polling you to change your 2013-2015 prediction of peak oil. You had ample time to revise to a later time period for peak. But you wouldn't budge.

rockdoc123 wrote:
meemoe_uk wrote:When you and me had an exchange in the summer I was saying that unrecoverable oil would become recoverable if the market price of oil went up, and that it can go up way higher than it is today, and that oil is still very cheap today.
You were saying that increasing the market price of oil wouldn't impact our ability to extract oil much, so that peak oil would be around 2013-2015.

:cry:

Now with your latest post you seem to have agreed with my previous stance. A 75% recovery rate for all the fields we've found will give plenty of oil for decades.
" the course of the economy " ?
You see what happens when the oil industry decides it needs more oil. Suddenly and 'fortunately' an oil rich nation is 'evil' and needs invading, and all the surrounding oil rich nations need revolutions as well.

This supports my thinking you were being too pessimistic with your ' oil technology and discovery have run their course and now we will peak ' idea.



you probably missed my latest post where I pointed out that despite very high oil prices companies have not increased exploration and indeed are retrenching. The point is they need investors money to be able to explore and they aren't getting any due to economic woes and pessimistic investor outlook. The same can be said for R&D, very little in the way of investment dollars for it currently so it is curtailed. I said that 75% ultimate recovery rate might be possible technically but I did not say at what expense, effort or time frame, all of which have to be taken into account. For simpler reservoir issues it could happen quickly and could be quite economic, however for more difficult problems such as oil wet reservoirs or viscous essentially dead oil it remains to be seen at what time a solution could be achieved or whether it could be done economically. It's not like you can just snap your fingers and we suddenly have high recovery rates in all fields.


With every suggestion I made to get you to postpone peak till later, you argued against my reasoning. In this you had made it quite clear that you were sticking with 2013-2015.

Also you're making an idiot mistake with your logic here : just the sort of mistake I'd expect from someone who failed maths physics chemistry so had to go do geology.
please show a quote from me in 2012 where I said I was sticking with a 2012 - 2015 peak. I didn't say that and did not think that.

So are we supposed to work by the rule that all your predictions are invalidated the moment after you make them if you don't continually announce that you're sticking with the prediction? bulshit.
The onus is on you to explicitly state you are changing your prediction with a good excuse or admission of error. The onus is not on others to assume that your prediction is legitimately invalidated, with no loss of credibility to you, when you don't repeat your prediction.
I see now why you had to become a geo. You aren't strong minded enough to admit error.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby marmico » Sun 24 Mar 2019, 04:09:09

Thats why Hubbert's prediction of global peak oil occurring ca. 2000 was so wrong.


Why do persons rely on Hubbert's 1956 estimate of a 2000 peak of 12.5 gigabarrels of world production per year (Figure 20)? That point was passed in ~1965.

Why do persons rely on Hubbert's 1956 estimate of 1250 gigabarrels of world ultimate recovery (Figure 20)? That point was passed in ~2010.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sun 24 Mar 2019, 04:30:17

>Why do persons rely on Hubbert
Just a habit they've got into. This a cult, and cults need leaders. Berty was a leader.

If you're looking for any better reason than that then be ready to absorb a lot of opinionated twoddle from all his minions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 12:33:02

Chris Martenson says that now that Ghawar is in decline, we are on track for a global oil shortage by 2022.

huge-news-ghawar-decline

The next few years should be interesting.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 13:52:07

Chris Martenson says that now that Ghawar is in decline, we are on track for a global oil shortage by 2022.


Ghawar has been depleting since it was first brought on stream. The recent decrease in Ghawar MSC whether it is a product of natural decline or managed production has been more than made up by MSC increases at other fields. The MSC for Aramco remains at 12 MMbbl/d which is where it has been for sometime. So this is nothing more than a tempest in a teapot. Saudi Arabia has the reserves the always talked about and their production capacity has increased by about 3 Mmbl/d since everyone was wringing their hands over Ghawar a decade ago.
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