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Saudi Aramco IPO

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 16:17:09

Any idiot (myself including) with eyes in their head can understand a simple picture.


and yet you confused a computer simulation with an actual map created from seismic? :roll:

Saudi Arabia made public this information a decade ago. Why have they shut out public viewing since? Answer; it is obvious from the data. Saudi reserves do not match Saudi's claims for reserves.


and yet we have the two largest reserve audit firms in the world saying that the reserves touted to the world by SA are in line with their own assessments. Why would they lie? Given what normal reserve audits cost even for large companies there is no way in the world they would put their reputations and their ability to continue a practice that pulls in 10's or more millions of dollars a year for the sake a few hundred thousand dollars. If they stated something falsely it puts them at odds with whatever exchange ARAMCO decides to list on and since Sarbanes Oxley these audit firms are legally at risk for false reporting which is exactly why it is impossible to influence them to any degree.

Yes, it is a reservoir simulation of the northern portion of the 'Ain Dar region of Ghawar. Data is from Alhuthali et al, Society of Petroleum Engineers Paper #93439.


no the data is not from that paper, which I've read years ago. That paper speaks to how ARAMCO contolled water cut in Ain Dar. And something that you don't realize is that much of the oil produced in Ghawar is produced from behind the water flood advance
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 17:18:46

Salman is ... not some gullible Arab in a dish dash as you might want to portray him.


I said nothing like that. Thats a crazy fantasy that you created out of your own overwrought imagination.

Are you now going to claim the investment banks didn't understand the rules around disclosure?


Again, I said nothing like that. Once again, that idea is entirely a product of your imagination, not mine.

There is nothing to indicate ARAMCO has decided against an IPO.


We'll just have to wait and see what they do once they complete the SABIC purchase. But we do know they haven't gotten it done in the 30 months since they announced their plan for an IPO. They haven't even decided what market to do it in. We do know the WSJ is reporting that the IPO is on hold because of KSA concerns about public disclosures concerning ARAMCO's business practices and assets (i.e. the money and the oil) that would be required if the IPO goes ahead. And the WSJ and other financial news sources are saying sentiment is now running against doing the IPO within ARAMCO itself.

AND right now, rather then moving ahead on the IPO, ARAMCO Is doing a huge SABIC deal. So If the IPO happens at all, it will only be after even more delay. The ARAMCO IPO is stalled until the SABIC deal is complete so it probably won't be until 2019 that ARAMCO will decide if it want to go back to the announced 2016 IPO plan, or do something different, or drop the IPO idea altogether.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 18:39:57

We do know the WSJ is reporting


all from undisclosed, anonymous sources who are supposedly insiders. :roll:

and the CEO of ARAMCO subsequently said in a TV interview that the SABIC deal would delay the IPO somewhat but they were still proceeding.

the funny thing about conspiracy theories is they always centre around anonymous sources who are insiders. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 21:58:00

We do know the WSJ is reporting


all from undisclosed, anonymous sources who are supposedly insiders.....the funny thing about conspiracy theories is they always centre around anonymous sources who are insiders.


For heaven's sake...you are such a dope. You don't even know what a conspiracy theory is.

In this case you are the one perpetrating a conspiracy theory. You are putting out the crazy idea that the Wall Street Journal's reporting on ARAMCO has no basis in reality. You have no evidence for your claim except the delusional fever dreams produced by your over active imagination.

Your conspiracy theory seems rather unlikely to me, for three reasons. (1) People aren't going to buy the WSJ if it gets caught making up imaginary sources and reports fakes news. There are no incentives for the WSJ to do it, and lots of incentives so they won't make things up. The New York Times has gotten caught doing that sort of thing, but the WSJ is pretty reliable, IMHO. And (2) the same story about insiders at ARAMCO saying the IPO is dead has appeared in other financial news papers and news magazines as well so its not just the WSJ reporting this. Your nutty conspiracy theory must be expanded to encompass several independent media sources reporting the same things about ARAMCO. And (3) there has been absolutely no sign of ARAMCO moving towards doing an IPO for almost two years now. Yes there was some activity and consultants were hired to look into ARAMCO's books and oil reserves when the IPO was announced back in 2016. But since then there's been nada zilch zero nothing. That is very consistent with the WSJ reporting, and contrary to your delusional conspiracy theory that the WSJ and other media sources are all fabricating their reports about ARAMCO.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 23:18:20

there has been absolutely no sign of ARAMCO moving towards doing an IPO for almost two years now. Yes there was some activity and consultants were hired to look into ARAMCO's books and oil reserves when the IPO was announced back in 2016. But since then there's been nada zilch zero nothing. That is very consistent with the WSJ reporting, and contrary to your delusional conspiracy theory that the WSJ and other media sources are all fabricating their reports about ARAMCO.


OK, first of all al the "other media sources" are simply reporting on the bogus WSJ report. And I have to ask if you are a complete idiot regarding how IPO's happen? The work they have been going through is exactly what would be required to get this done, they have executed numerous steps in accordance with this. Not only that but back early this year they legally changed the status of ARAMCO from a royal decree company to a joint stock company. The only reason in the world they would do that is if they were set on an IPO at some point in time. This is not a step they can walk back casually, they showed commitment to the process by doing this. Ignore all the activity they have done if you want, it just makes you look stupid to do so.

The basic problem here is you have absolutely no understanding of the IPO process. For some incredibly dumb reason, you think that some private company just decides...let's go public and runs down the road to do that in a couple of months. Never happens, even with small companies let alone something the size of ARAMCO.

So you are saying that although they keep doing all the things necessary to make an IPO happen that secretly they are actually planning on not doing one? What have they not done to get an IPO accomplished? Please inform us all. As I have said the timing has to do with market valuation and how that fits in with SA plans for privatization more than anything else.

Believe the BS from the ill-informed WSJ article if you want, all the evidence of what has been done and continues to be done along with the comments from ARAMCO fly in the face of it. Logically most of the arguments in the WSJ article are complete nonsense, as I've shown previously.

But maybe you can prove who those unidentified sources at ARAMCO are that WSJ refers to? Please help us all out here. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 14:44:38

Lots and lots of verbiage. Bottom line: there is no Aramco IPO. Might be one some day...might never be one. This discussion might be classified as "beating a dead horse". Except for the fact the horse never existed in the first place. LOL.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 15:29:57

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices
US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40% [/qu
ote]
The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -wikileaks
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 16:03:33

Is there some reason you are posting an article from 10 years ago?
Al-Husseini had a grudge against ARAMCO for some time.
At the time this article was written ARAMCO was at the start of the mega-projects. By 2011 they had commissioned all but one of those projects and spare capacity was said to be at 12.5 MMB/d. So the article was incorrect, SA was capable of 12 MMb/d with a bit of investment.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 16:06:43

rockdoc123 wrote:Is there some reason you are posting an article from 10 years ago?
Al-Husseini had a grudge against ARAMCO for some time.
At the time this article was written ARAMCO was at the start of the mega-projects. By 2011 they had commissioned all but one of those projects and spare capacity was said to be at 12.5 MMB/d. So the article was incorrect, SA was capable of 12 MMb/d with a bit of investment.

It's gotten worse since then!
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 16:58:50

It's gotten worse since then!


exactly how? Since the megaprojects SA has met every demand when production was needed to settle the market. First time when Libya went down, then again with Iran and then once again with Libya.

When exactly was the world needing more production as of late? From 2015 through 2017 supply was outpacing demand and now it is more or less in balance especially with the Saudis replacing production lost from Iran.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 18:40:24

all ... the "other media sources" are simply reporting on the bogus WSJ report.


That isn't true.

Its easy to show that "other media sources" are reporting independently, because some of them reported that the ARAMCO IPO is stalled out or even dead before the WSJ did their report saying the iPO has stalled out Your conspiracy theory only works if these other media sources traveled forward through time to read the WSJ report and then went back in time to do their own report. For normal, honest people, the fact that the other media reports predate the WSJ report proves that your conspiracy theory that the media are in cahoots against the ARAMCO IPO is nutso.

For instance, here's a report at CNBC that predates the WSJ report and is independently saying the same thing, i.e. the IPO ain't happening. If anything this CNBC report is even more pessimistic about the ARAMCO IPO then the subsequent WSJ report.

dont-think-saudi-aramco-ipo-will-happen-in-2019-if-ever-says-oil-expert

Notice how the oil analyst in this CNBC segment actually snorts in disbelief that anyone could be so dumb as to think the ARAMCO IPO is going to happen.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 19:13:43

Notice how the oil analyst in this CNBC segment actually snorts in disbelief that anyone could be so dumb as to think the ARAMCO IPO is going to happen.


did you actually even watch the episode? Apparently not. Kilduff said "he didn't think it was going to happen" the only reason he could come up with was they don't have appetite for disclosure but the other panel member who is another investment banker said...hold on..they are a long ways down the path with audit already (meaning in their own minds they have gone through all the disclosure issues just as I said) and that it is only one man who will make the decision and if he decided not to go forward it would be a major step back in his vision for the 2030 model. Kilduff has no special knowledge, he simply has an opinion... one which isn't well thought out.

What astounds me is you are going on and on as if the Saudis have postponed the IPO several times. They have not. All along up until one month ago they were stating end of 2018 as their goal for a listing, it wasn't until the June interview with the head of ARAMCO that the announcement was made they would be postponing hopefully to 2019 but that the timing was a decision to be made by the gov't. Khalid al Fatih the oil minister recently stated that the Saudi Gov't was in no rush and did not have a need to do it right away. What's the big deal? There is no evidence whatsoever that it has been cancelled, simply waiting on the right time. As I pointed out in an article above this has to do with waiting for the right price.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 20:23:30

Kilduff said "he didn't think it was going to happen" ... they don't have appetite for disclosure


And verily---so it has come to pass. Forsooth---the IPO has stalled, at least in part because KSA doesn't want to go through the kind of disclosure required for public listing in New York or other world markets. Thats exactly what I've been telling you. Thats what the WSJ has been reporting. Thats CNBC is reporting. Do you get it now?

Allow me to quote from Rockman's post above. Rockman is the most highly respected oil industry expert at this site so his opinion should be taken seriously. Rockman wrote: Bottom line: there is no Aramco IPO

How true. How obvious. How common sensical. Bottom line--there is no Aramco IPO. Right on, brother. Amen. Testify. Tell it like it is. Hallelujah. Ohmigosh---Rockman is an honest man. We have found an honest man on the internet. It renews my faith in humanity. Perhaps there still is hope of having honest discussions on the internet---all it takes is people or character like Rockman and Pstarr and, of course, me---people who are honest and unafraid to speak and say right out loud the obvious truths that we see around us in the world today. Bottom line: there is no Aramco IPO

Bottom line: there is no Aramco IPO

Bottom line: there is no Aramco IPO

Bottom line: there is no Aramco IPO

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 23:38:14

And verily---so it has come to pass. Forsooth---the IPO has stalled, at least in part because KSA doesn't want to go through the kind of disclosure required for public listing in New York or other world markets. Thats exactly what I've been telling you. Thats what the WSJ has been reporting. Thats CNBC is reporting. Do you get it now?


are you a complete frigging idjit? The fact that Kilduf says something then ...oh it must be true. Maybe you should buy some of the shares in the companies he represents...opps that may not have been a good idea. :roll:
SA went into this thing with eyes wide open. They have talked to the biggest exchanges who all have disclosure policies. These disclosure policies are not secret, they are there for everyone in the freaking world to see. If they were worried about disclosure why would they have gone and got reserve audits done? Why would they have gone ahead with financial audits? If they were worried about disclosure they would never, ever have even thought about going down the IPO route because it was well known from day one that they would be required under law to be governed by the idea of "continuous disclosure". This whole disclosure BS might have been important before they started down the road of an IPO, the fact they did and kept going should tell you it isn't an issue. Unless of course, you are a complete moron.

How true. How obvious. How common sensical. Bottom line--there is no Aramco IPO. Right on, brother. Amen. Testify. Tell it like it is. Hallelujah.


OK, you definitely are mentally challenged. The fact there isn't an offering at this exact point in time does not mean there will not be one. Did ARAMCO say that at the end of July 2018 there would be shares traded? No they did not. What they said over the past 2 years is that they were targeting an end of 2018 IPO. Do you actually know what an IPO is? It seems you do not. The fact they have said OK we will stall this a bit does not mean they are not going to do it.

Please stop this nonsense until you actually acknowledge the process and how this all works.

Rockman is the most highly respected oil industry expert at this site s


I guess because he agrees with you. In comparison to him, I've worked in 30 countries around the world (he has worked in one from what I can tell). I've been a senior executive in several companies and before that was a senior scientist in a couple of the majors. I've worked on potential projects in Saudi Arabisa, met with one of the Princes years ago and understand what is going on there. How do you come off saying he is "highly respected"? By who exactly? I'm not denigrating Rockman, I know he has been closer to the sandface for many years than me (it has been close to a decade since I walked around on the drill floor).... and I respect that. I have been closer to the senior management side of things for international endeavors, however, unconventional etc. And what knowledge does Rockman bring here regarding Saudi Arabia exactly? About a decade ago I started a thread that was all about the actual data available on SA because there was so much crap coming out of the Twilight in the Desert fans, I had access to the WoodMac data at that time. This is an area in which I am an expert as much as anyone on this site can be at this point in time. But apparently you found someone who will agree with you...good on you, pick the "experts" that agree with you, that must mean they are incredibly intelligent. :roll:

Bottom line: there is no Aramco IPO


The fact at this exact point in time that there is not a share offering has nothing to do with whether or not there will be one in a few months time. Do you have the actual reference to the fact they have canceled any idea of doing an IPO? Of course not. So please stop the BS.

Can you buy shares in ARAMCO tomorrow....no. Can you possibly buy share in ARAMCO in 6 months time....there is no reason whatsoeve to suggest you can't. So please stop the complete BS.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 13:56:24

And one more reason to appreciate the fact that no Aramco IPO exists today. From

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/saudi ... 8-article/


“Saudi Aramco is weighing tapping the international bond market for the first time to finance the acquisition of petrochemical giant Sabic, a move into global capital markets that could offer an alternative to an initial public offering, according to people familiar with the talks.

If Aramco goes ahead with an international bond -- potentially among the biggest ever done by a corporate issuer -- the sale would force the world’s largest oil producer to disclose its accounts to investors for the first time since nationalization four decades ago as well as many other details about oil reserves and operations.

The plans for a bond, likely to be combined with banks loans, are very preliminary but would allow the state-owned company to raise cash to pay the country’s sovereign wealth fund for the 70 percent stake it owns in Sabic, valued at about $70 billion. In turn, the Public Investment Fund would obtain the money it had initially hoped to raise from the Aramco IPO, the same people said, asking not to be named because the talks are private.”

Not many understand the exact nature of the Sabic deal: It is the KSA buying the Sabic interest from the KSA. Remember the KSA owns 100% of Aramco and 100% of is sovereign fund. And Aramco does not the monies to pay the KSA for Sabic. The Sabic interest the KSA apparent feels the need to liquidate. But doesn’t want the KSA govt to lose control of Sabic. Nor offer it for sale on the open market which might draw a value much lower then what the KSA says it’s worth. But, again, wants someone else then Aramco to fund the deal. Rather suspicious IMHO. Sounds like trouble in "River City". LOL

“A potential Sabic deal would affect the time frame for Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering," Amin Nasser, Aramco’s chief executive officer, told Arabiya television last week. Saudi officials had already lengthened the timeline for the Aramco IPO. Khalid Al-Falih, the country’s oil minister, said in June that while it would be nice to do the deal in 2019, the timing wasn’t critical. "There is a lot more at stake than just ticking a box and say, ‘We got this out of the way,’" he said.
The plan to sell shares in the state oil giant next year is itself a delay from an original plan for 2018. For almost two years, Saudi officials said repeatedly the IPO was "on track, on time" for the second half of 2018. Earlier this year, they admitted it would be delayed into 2019. And many observers — including members of the company’s senior leadership — doubt whether it will happen at all.”


Personally I don't consider senior leadership of Aramco not believing the Aramco will ever happen as BS. But perhaps there are those here who think they know more then the inside experts. Not uncommon in these here parts. LOL.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 14:34:48

I see where you trying to go pstarr. But doesn't really work: "daddy" doesn't have the tooth money. He has to borrow it. And his credit card is maxed out. So he needs to find some fool who will issue him a new credit card with a $70 billion limit. No problem there, right? LOL
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 15:42:53

And many observers — including members of the company’s senior leadership — doubt whether it will happen at all.”

here we go again with the undisclosed insiders. Who are they? Did Bloomberg talk to them? Of course they didn't, they're just parroting the WSJ article who also doesn't name names. First of all it is highly unlikely that a someone in ARAMCO management would talk out of school, not if he was still employed there and wanted to remain there. The IPO is MBS's initiative, you don't bad mouth the Crown Prince, especially one who has no compunction of throwing high ranking officials in prison. Secondly there has been comments from both the CEO and the Minister of Petroleum that the work on the IPO continues to progress but the actual offering will be delayed.

If Aramco goes ahead with an international bond -- potentially among the biggest ever done by a corporate issuer -- the sale would force the world’s largest oil producer to disclose its accounts to investors for the first time since nationalization four decades ago as well as many other details about oil reserves and operations.


this is hilarious....and here a number of people were arguing the SABIC deal would allow ARAMCO to avoid disclosure. Afraid not. Disclosure is not an issue for them.

Not many understand the exact nature of the Sabic deal: It is the KSA buying the Sabic interest from the KSA. Remember the KSA owns 100% of Aramco and 100% of is sovereign fund. And Aramco does not the monies to pay the KSA for Sabic. The Sabic interest the KSA apparent feels the need to liquidate. But doesn’t want the KSA govt to lose control of Sabic. Nor offer it for sale on the open market which might draw a value much lower then what the KSA says it’s worth. But, again, wants someone else then Aramco to fund the deal. Rather suspicious IMHO. Sounds like trouble in "River City". L


perhaps you should have read the whole thread, this was discussed already. The purchase of shares in SABIC fits in with ARAMCO stated desire to increase it's downstream holdings. It guarantees ARAMCO sales of its crude in certain cases and decreases it's sensitivity to oil price fluctuations. From SA gov't standpoint they sell their share of SABIC to ARAMCO, the gov't gets $70 billion in the PIF and ARAMCO's valuation remains the same (cash/debt out assets in). The SA gov't can then offer out a portion of ARAMCO to the market through the IPO next year and then end up with shares in the PIF of ARAMCO which includes all of the SABIC value that they already cashed in on, like being paid twice. Quite slick.

As I said above ARAMCO cash flow last year was something in the order of $60 billion with Capex of $12 billion or so and Opex likely in the $9 billion range. That leaves lots of working capital to 1. fund at least 10% of the SABIC purchase through working capital and 2. easily handle the carrying charges on the debt as well as retire that debt in relatively short order. It's not that much of a stretch.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 16:26:59

Another US oil analyst says the Saudis have retreated from doing the Aramco IPO

saudi-retreat-on-oil-ipo-

The bottom line is there is no Aramco IPO.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 17:03:10

Another US oil analyst says the Saudis have retreated from doing the Aramco IPO


and he references the knowledge of what is happening by linking to a Zero Hedge article :roll:

and the Zero Hedge article references the WSJ article.

This is all a bit like a bunch of kids whispering a story to each other around a campfire, pretty hard to tell what is verifiable at any point.

The bottom line is there is no Aramco IPO.


this statement is meaningless. There was no "IPO" a month after they announced they were working on it, and there was no "IPO" a year after they announced they were working on it as they made lots of progress just as there is no "IPO" at this moment and they are still working on it. It's a process and in the case of ARAMCO a complex one. And they had always stated that the initial goal was for end of 2018, with a delay in that process being announced last month with new sights on 2019. There isn't an official Initial Public Offering until the prospectus is released to potential investors.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 17:38:44

All that anticipation, however, has now come crashing down as the Saudi government seeks the funds it might have gotten from an IPO through other avenues. So, what happened?
-First, oil prices rose significantly.
-Second, it's possible the Saudis now believe that investors would not be willing to pay as much as the Saudis want for a variety of reasons that include:

Concern about the stability of the Saudi regime (with whom investors would become business partners).
The high taxes and royalties paid by the company to the government.
The lack of diversification because almost all of Aramco's operations are in Saudi Arabia and thus subject to upheavals and conflicts in the Middle East.
The role of Saudi Arabia as an OPEC member and as the world's largest swing producer which leads it to adjust its output for geopolitical reasons and not merely to maximize profits for the company.
the most important reason the Saudis are reconsidering the IPO is that the government simply does not want to subject the company to an independent audit that would for the first time since 1980 determine whether the country has been telling the truth about its oil reserves.
Despite the fact that one of the world's largest producers of oil has not been audited in 38 years

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