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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 May 2019, 09:56:56

The standoff with China “cuts to the core of what the United States is going to be in the future,” Bannon said in a “Squawk Box” interview. “We have all the cards.” -CNBC

Steve Bannon


100%. The US is a net energy importer, China a net energy exporter. In a Post Peak World being an energy exporter is not the best place to be! The Chinese are shipping 1.2 mb/d boe in the $495 billion per year that they ship to the US. The Chinese business model is looking a little rickety.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... -trade-war

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 15 May 2019, 10:29:59

April retail sales took a dump
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 15 May 2019, 11:48:06

Global Trade Collapsing To Depression Levels

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... ion-levels
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 15 May 2019, 11:55:50

If one looks at the world growth rate from 2014 to 2017 (the World Bank has still not posted 2018??) the average increase has been 0.39%; 


0.39% ? Really ?

Here is a graph from the worldbank (the exact page you linked to).

Image[/url]

I even made it easy for you by putting a solid red line at ~0.39% annual growth rate.

The actual average over that period is closer to 3% as you have been shown time and time again by several people.

What part of reading a graph do you not get?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 15 May 2019, 13:24:05

Armageddon wrote:Global Trade Collapsing To Depression Levels

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... ion-levels

Both China and the US will blame this on the trade war. But this is but a symptom of the PO dynamic. A survival of the fittest dynamic
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 May 2019, 14:40:20

onlooker wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Global Trade Collapsing To Depression Levels

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... ion-levels

Both China and the US will blame this on the trade war. But this is but a symptom of the PO dynamic. A survival of the fittest dynamic

When there is PLENTY of oil available at moderate prices by ANY objective standard, how, exactly is "the PO dynamic" a problem in the real world?

If the price of oil gets really high (like over $100 on a sustained basis minimum) AND we see seriously constrained global growth, that might be worth revisiting. Might.

But of course, we already had WTi crude oil prices near $100 on average from mid 2010 to mid 2014, and the US and global economy trudged right along, even though your ilk completely ignores that NO MATTER HOW MANY TIMES the obvious is pointed out to you.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 15 May 2019, 16:54:04

Has the recession already started? Real retail sales peaked in Nov/2018; real PDI peaked in Dec/2018; IP peaked in Dec/2018; and HH employment peaked in Feb/2019. The 4 cornerstones of the economic cycle.


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 May 2019, 17:25:45

Brazil’s gasoline sales have been falling steadily for 18 months but the decline accelerated sharply in March, while diesel sales, which had been growing, also dropped unexpectedly.


https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-pri ... J?rpc=401&

As petroleum's ongoing, and inevitable depletion bites, world economies will inevitably be rolling over. Arguing with the Laws of Physics is a zero sum game;!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby derhundistlos » Wed 15 May 2019, 18:50:44

Regarding Trump's infrastructure bill, according to conservative Fortune, it's a scam. It's a smokescreen intended to grab headlines and nothing more.

Fortune Magazine:

"President Donald Trump claims that a $200 billion investment by the federal government will lead to nearly $1.5 trillion in new infrastructure spending—when it’s leveraged in the private sector over 10 years. That’s the gist of the long-promised “plan” he released on Feb. 12.

But as we’ve seen before, when the president makes big plans and claims that someone else will pay, he’s scamming us.

Trump’s infrastructure plan hinges on a $100 billion matching grant program for states and cities to launch their own projects, with additional funds coming from a $50 billion rural investment program, along with a few other line items. That’s supposed to entice private companies to come out of the woodwork and rebuild America to the tune of $1.5 trillion.

Just like Mexico won’t pay for a border wall, private investors won’t pay for roads, bridges, and energy infrastructure just because the president says they will. Kicking federal obligations to private companies doesn’t work that way.

The Democrat's plan raises the funds to invest in America and tamp down the deficit at the same time by raising taxes on billionaires and closing corporate tax loopholes—the exact opposite approach of the Trump tax plan (which, at a cost of $1.5 trillion or more, would have been enough to fund his entire infrastructure plan directly).

So remember: If the president offers to take you out to dinner, don’t accept unless you’re ready to either go hungry or foot the bill."
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 09:14:45

The US monthly Cass Corp Freight Index shows shipments fell 3.2% YoY in April (5th straight decline; largest drop since June 2016)


Damn near everything is in decline. This isn’t the time of year things should be declining either.

No magic bullets left for the FED. A couple rate cuts will boost the markets...for now. Or until the election.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 16 May 2019, 10:53:51

No magic bullets left for the FED.


World trade has already declined to the 2008 financial crisis level. Even rate cuts may not get the economy to 2020. That line is straight down.

Image

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... er-economy
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 11:31:00

shortonoil wrote:
No magic bullets left for the FED.


World trade has already declined to the 2008 financial crisis level. Even rate cuts may not get the economy to 2020. That line is straight down.

Image

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... er-economy




Agree, but I was talking about the stock markets. It will love rate cuts. It doesn’t care about real economic data, only cheap money. Just like a crack head needing crack.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 12:58:16

Auto loan delinquencies are nearing peak levels we saw during the great recession

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 16 May 2019, 13:14:16

Agree, but I was talking about the stock markets. It will love rate cuts. It doesn’t care about real economic data, only cheap money. Just like a crack head needing crack.


Take enough tokes on that pipe, and eventually your head blows off! When the credit markets collapse Wall Street will have taken one toke too many.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 16:20:02

Fed Reports Consumer Goods Production Growth Contracting - in negative territory, fits with the decline in Retail Sales report. Consumers are stretched - tariff inflation, higher interest rates, student loan debt

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 16 May 2019, 16:20:36

shortonoil wrote:
Agree, but I was talking about the stock markets. It will love rate cuts. It doesn’t care about real economic data, only cheap money. Just like a crack head needing crack.


Take enough tokes on that pipe, and eventually your head blows off! When the credit markets collapse Wall Street will have taken one toke too many.

And your forecasts re ANYTHING economic are SO credible, re your absolutely abysmal track record.

So you should talk. :roll:

Have you paid your debt yet? Or admitted you had one? How's that ETP forecast doing re oil price affordability or $2 WTI within a few years? How's all the collapse talk, doomed markets, people starviing, worthless dollar, hyper-inflation, yadda yadda?

It's all in your head, but you continue the endless wrong-headed jabbering, and expect to be taken seriously.

My house cat has a learning curve that makes you look as intelligent as a bacteria.

Meanwhile in the real world, instead of economic collapse, we recently have housing stronger than expected, builder confidence, lower jobless claims than expected, etc.

https://www.cnbc.com/economy/

As I keep telling your pal Armageddon, who is also learning challenged re economics, it's decidely MIXED news. But endlessly trying to cherry pick doom is so much fun, apparently.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 16 May 2019, 16:24:15

Armageddon wrote:Fed Reports Consumer Goods Production Growth Contracting - in negative territory, fits with the decline in Retail Sales report. Consumers are stretched - tariff inflation, higher interest rates, student loan debt

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Ah, the endless cherry picker. Rarely on the ball re economic understanding or predictions, but has a high post count.

Congrats. :roll:

And how does the good news on housing and low jobless claims fit into that total economic doom scenario of yours?

Yeah, I know. You just pretend positive news doesn't exist, which is oh, so credible. :shock:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 17:46:25

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Fed Reports Consumer Goods Production Growth Contracting - in negative territory, fits with the decline in Retail Sales report. Consumers are stretched - tariff inflation, higher interest rates, student loan debt

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Ah, the endless cherry picker. Rarely on the ball re economic understanding or predictions, but has a high post count.

Congrats. :roll:

And how does the good news on housing and low jobless claims fit into that total economic doom scenario of yours?

Yeah, I know. You just pretend positive news doesn't exist, which is oh, so credible. :shock:




Good news on housing? Was that a joke?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 17:54:09

Recessionary Forces: Global Air Freight Volume Plunges In A Sign Of Economic Stress

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... mic-stress
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 16 May 2019, 17:56:15

Housing Starts Suffer 7th Annual Decline In A Row Despite Surge In Northeast


Building Permits for single-family units tumbled to its weakest since October 2016

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... -northeast
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