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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 May 2019, 14:12:21

Most people do not realize the the debt ceiling has been breached and now "emergency" measures are being used to just to pay America's bills. YOU are not supposed to know, stay distracted... just like you are supposed to.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 May 2019, 14:14:36

Yoshua wrote:The USD is needed for global trade. No one will accept yuan, ruble, peso. The global banks use Eurodollars (offshore dollars) for trade. The global elite counts their wealth in Eurodollars.

Gold, silver, oil, even bitcoin are priced in dollars.

The dollar exists in low inflation nirvana. Exploit it.



The world is getting away from the Petro dollar. They are starting to sell oil in a gold backed currency. China and SA are behind it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 May 2019, 14:32:21

Luxury Home Sales Crash Last Quarter, Biggest YoY Decline Since 2010

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If you can’t see this shitstorm brewing, you are either blind or in denial.

You have till Fall to get your shit together. I just bought another shipment of silver. If it hits $14.00, i’ll buy another. This is the time of year it usually bottoms out. Great buying opportunity.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 02 May 2019, 14:54:41

We are just getting started. Fall is when the fireworks will begin. Make sure you get a good seat.


you were telling us in 2018 that it was first quarter 2019 when this was going to happen....then it was the second quarter and now it is late third quarter. If you keep moving the goal posts you can't help but be right at some point. Broken clock syndrome.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 May 2019, 15:10:08

rockdoc123 wrote:
We are just getting started. Fall is when the fireworks will begin. Make sure you get a good seat.


you were telling us in 2018 that it was first quarter 2019 when this was going to happen....then it was the second quarter and now it is late third quarter. If you keep moving the goal posts you can't help but be right at some point. Broken clock syndrome.



Shitstorms usually happen in the Fall. If they cut interest rates and announce more QE, they might be able to buy a little more time. More crack for the addict
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 02 May 2019, 15:12:08

Central Banks Are Ditching the Dollar for Gold. Global gold reserves rose 145.5 tons in Q1, a 68% increase from a year earlier. Russia remains the largest buyer as the nation reduces its U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a de-dollarization drive. #GotGold?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 02 May 2019, 15:15:42

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:April US Auto Sales Crash 6.1%, Worst Slide In 8 Years | Zero Hedge

Ah yes. More predictive "insight" by zerohedge. :roll:


The best thing to do is just ignore him and let time pass. I mean, he seems to want to behave like a bot anyway, spitting out 5-6 one-paragraph uncited quotations of doomer porn per day. He has no interest in actual analysis or interaction and the mods don't want to reign him in. So let him masturbate all he wants here.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 03 May 2019, 11:57:47

shortonoil wrote:World debt has grown by $32 trillion in the last 12 months. Word debt is now growing over 10 times faster than its GDP. The world has reached Peak Oil, and will soon be overwhelmed by its exponential debt growth, as its real GDP (less debt, or the consumption of existing assets) is falling.

1). The world has not reached "peak oil", clearly, since the global oil production numbers continue to increase over time, despite your MANY incorrect claims of peak oil. Do you think being wrong very often somehow makes you right? :roll:

2). Somehow when hundreds of millions are moving from third world economic status to the middle class, and the objective material wealth of most of the first world is improving, you seem to be missing something in your constant claims of doom.

For example, the US having the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, and a surge in job creation in April, just doesn't seem to meet your and Armageddon's constant claims and cherry-picking for only doom-ish economic figures. Or the title of this thread, predicting a stock market "crash", when the stock market has zoomed all the way up to new records.

Maybe if you were right re your doomer calls, just once in a while. But alas, you're not.

...

Oh, flagged your post for your sig line. Can't you be mature enough to attack the data you disagree with, even if you must use terrible sources, and not attack the messenger like a small child?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 03 May 2019, 12:00:51

rockdoc123 wrote:
We are just getting started. Fall is when the fireworks will begin. Make sure you get a good seat.


you were telling us in 2018 that it was first quarter 2019 when this was going to happen....then it was the second quarter and now it is late third quarter. If you keep moving the goal posts you can't help but be right at some point. Broken clock syndrome.

Funny how such doomers have NO shame or embarrassment when playing such games. They do it frequently. After about 4 decades of it, I'm sick of it. I'm glad to see people calling them on it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 May 2019, 14:07:46

Class 8 Heavy Truck Orders Decimated In April, Down 57% Year Over Year
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 May 2019, 15:10:35

Lots of rate cut talk. You know it’s coming. QE too.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 May 2019, 15:30:06

I Dare You To Tell Me The Economy Is “Booming” After Reading This List Of 19 Facts About Our Current Economic Performance

After taking an honest look at the facts, I don’t know how anyone can possibly claim that the U.S. economy is “booming”. I really don’t. We hear this sort of rhetoric from the mainstream media all the time, but it doesn’t make any sense. As I discussed yesterday, nobody should be using the term “booming” to describe the state of the U.S. economy until we have a full year when GDP growth is 3 percent or better, and at this point we haven’t had that since the middle of the Bush administration. And as you will see below, the latest numbers are clearly telling us that the U.S. economy is not even moving in the right direction. Economic conditions are getting worse, and they weren’t that great to begin with. According to the calculations that John Williams has made over at shadowstats.com, the U.S. economy is already in a recession, but of course the Federal Reserve will continue to tell us that everything is just fine for as long as they possibly can. Unfortunately for them, they can’t hide the depressingly bad numbers that are coming in from all over the economy, and those numbers are all telling us the same thing.

The following are 19 facts about our current economic performance that should deeply disturb all of us…

#1 In April, U.S. auto sales were down 6.1 percent. That was the worst decline in 8 years.

#2 The number of mortgage applications has fallen for four weeks in a row.

#3 We just witnessed the largest crash in luxury home sales in about 9 years.

#4 Existing home sales have now fallen for 13 months in a row.

#5 In March, total residential construction spending was down 8.4 percent from a year ago.

#6 U.S. manufacturing output was down 1.1 percent during the first quarter of this year.

#7 Farm incomes are falling at the fastest pace since 2016.

#8 Wisconsin dairy farmers are going bankrupt “in record numbers”.

#9 Apple iPhone sales are falling at a “record pace”.

#10 Facebook’s profits have declined for the first time since 2015.

#11 We just learned that CVS will be closing 46 stores.

#12 Office Depot has announced that they will be closing 50 locations.

#13 Overall, U.S. retailers have announced more than 6,000 store closings so far in 2019, and that means we have already surpassed the total for all of last year.

#14 A shocking new study has discovered that 137 million Americans have experienced “medical financial hardship in the past year”.

#15 Credit card charge-offs at U.S. banks have risen to the highest level in nearly 7 years.

#16 Credit card delinquencies have risen to the highest level in almost 8 years.

#17 More than half a million Americans are homeless right now.

#18 Homelessness in New York City is the worst that it has ever been.

#19 Nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now. That number is worse than it was at any point during the last recession.

But at least the stock market has been doing well, right?

Actually, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been down for two days in a row, and investors are getting kind of antsy.

Hopes of a trade deal with China had been propping up stocks in recent weeks, but it looks like negotiations may have hit “an impasse”…

The latest round of US-China trade talks may have hit an impasse, raising doubts about the chances of an early trade deal between the world’s two leading economies, Chinese official media reported on Thursday.

Unlike the previous negotiations, the 10th round of high-level economic and trade talks, which concluded here on Wednesday, had fewer details about specific discussions and results, state-run Global Times reported.
I warned my readers repeatedly that this would happen. The Chinese are going to negotiate, but they are going to drag their feet for as long as possible in hopes that the U.S. will free Meng Wanzhou.

Of course that isn’t going to happen, and so at some point the Chinese will have to decide if they are willing to move forward with a trade deal anyway.

But if the Chinese drag their feet for too long, Trump administration officials may lose patience and take their ball and go home.

In any event, the truth is that the U.S. economy is really slowing down, and no trade deal is going to magically change that.

And a lot of other pundits are also pointing out that a substantial economic slowdown has now begun. For example, the following comes from Brandon Smith’s latest article…

The bottom line is, the next crash has already begun. It started at the end of 2018, and is only becoming more pervasive with each passing month. This is not “doom and gloom” or “doom porn”, this is simply the facts on the ground. While stock markets are still holding (for now), the rest of the system is breaking down right on schedule. The question now is, when will the mainstream media and the Fed finally acknowledge this is happening? I suspect, as in 2008, they will openly admit to the danger only when it is far too late for people to prepare for it.
Hopefully things will remain relatively stable for as long as possible, because nobody should want to see a repeat of 2008 (or worse).

Unfortunately, we can’t stop the clock. We are already more than a third of the way through 2019, and we will be into 2020 before we know it.

It has been an unusual year so far, but I have a feeling that it is about to get much, much more interesting.

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/i-d ... rformance/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 03 May 2019, 16:39:53

According to the calculations that John Williams has made over at shadowstats.com, the U.S. economy is already in a recession,


Of course Shadowstats the second go to of the doomer :roll:

The technical definition requires two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. That hasn't happened with the first quarter increasing at 3.2%

In general for a recession to be called income needs to fall over that period, employment needs to fall, manufacturing and retail sales need to fall. Most of that hasn't happened either.

Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the average weekly earnings for salary and wage workers in the US for first quarter 2019 rose by 2.7% over the same period last year

Unemployment is at a 50 year low, there has never been a recession with unemployment this low.

Although February retail sales were weak March retail sales had rebounded 1.6% month on month, the strongest increase in 1.5 years.

Manufacturing is the only one of these that hasn’t recovered from January/February weakness. But to contrast with that US worker productivity increased at its fastest rate in more than 4 years in the first quarter. And the manufacturing sector has continued to add jobs.

Bottom line is if you want to see doom you can find all sorts of signs that you can argue indicate it, they have been referenced throughout the long run bull market. At the same time there are signs the economy is still healthy and a stock market crash is not going to happen next week, or next month as you would like us to all believe.

Your panicked continuous posting of "signs of impending disaster" suggests to me you are overleveraged in gold and metal-related stocks and being worried about getting left holding the bag are hoping to create some positive momentum so you can sell. Good luck with that.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Fri 03 May 2019, 16:45:11

Armageddon wrote:Lots of rate cut talk. You know it’s coming. QE too.


The only person talking about rate cuts is you. Your 3 month absence is going to be appreciated by all.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 May 2019, 17:31:25

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Lots of rate cut talk. You know it’s coming. QE too.


The only person talking about rate cuts is you. Your 3 month absence is going to be appreciated by all.



Trump and Pence are begging the FED for it. You know it’s coming.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 May 2019, 19:47:12

Meanwhile, only 39% of Americans have enough savings to cover a $1,000 emergency, 69% with less than $1,000 in savings, and 34% have no savings at all. The U.S. recently surpassed the $22 trillion level on the national debt clock, but according to the Fed, the debt level is $72 trillion.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sat 04 May 2019, 02:29:33

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Lots of rate cut talk. You know it’s coming. QE too.


The only person talking about rate cuts is you. Your 3 month absence is going to be appreciated by all.



Trump and Pence are begging the FED for it. You know it’s coming.


Unlike you, I read the Fed guidance and know why they cut rates and why they raise them. With inflation meeting target and the economy doing extremely well, there is zero reason to cut rates in spite of Trump's desire to do so. It would shock me not at all for the Fed to RAISE rates this summer. 1/4 point I think.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 05 May 2019, 07:37:05

Trucking Skids into Downturn after Phenomenal Boom: Orders for heavy trucks that haul consumer goods, equipment, commodities & supplies across the US plunged 52% yoy, on par with the last transportation recession.
wolfstreet.com/2019/05/04/tru…
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 05 May 2019, 08:29:21

Longest losing streak in 20 year history for the global manufacturing PMI.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 05 May 2019, 11:25:34

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Lots of rate cut talk. You know it’s coming. QE too.


The only person talking about rate cuts is you. Your 3 month absence is going to be appreciated by all.

Wait a second, Trump is talking about rate cuts too. He's involved in this argument with J Powell over the direction the Fed should take. Alright, he's trying to feather his nest for the upcoming election, but to say no one is talking about rate cuts is a mistake. I don't believe in this doom either, but Trump is acting like he does. Do you suppose he is using an understanding he knows that the general population has of this doom to try and get himself re-elected?
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