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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 20:23:43

rockdoc123 wrote:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.


I think not. GDP is an accounting issue and refers to the income side of the statement, not the balance sheet. Hence to calculate GDP you do not take debt into account. What you are calculating is closer to something called Real Growth which is GDP growth - growth in debt. But it is not GDP which is what was being reported. Get your facts straight.




I’ll take Denninger’s word over yours.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 20:48:43

Apple YoY Revenue Growth (%)...
Q1 2019: -5%
Q1 2018: +16%
Q1 2017: +5%
Q1 2016: -13%
Q1 2015: +27%
Q1 2014: +5%
Q1 2013: +11%
Q1 2012: +59%
Q1 2011: +83%
Q1 2010: +49%
Q1 2009: +21%
Q1 2008: +42%
Q1 2007: +21%


Hmmm
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 21:09:57

I’ll take Denninger’s word over yours.


Of course, cheery pick some approach that has nothing whatsoever to do with the actual definition of the term GDP as it meets the argument you want to make. That doesn’t make it the correct definition of GDP, in fact it isn’t close. You don’t have to believe me perhaps you would believe the OECD which defines GDP as:

an aggregate measure of production equal to the sum of the gross values added of all resident and institutional units engaged in production (plus any taxes, and minus any subsidies, on products not included in the value of their outputs


Note the conspicuous absence of debt from that calculation

Or perhaps the IMF which defines GDP as:

GDP measures the monetary value of final goods and services—that are bought by the final user—produced in a country in a given period of time (say a quarter or a year).


Again no mention of debt in that definition.

There are several approaches to calculating GDP, two of those the expenditure method and the income method calculate GDP as:

gross domestic product = consumption + investment + government purchases + (exports - imports). (Expenditure method)


GDP = compensation of employees + gross operating surplus + gross mixed income + taxes less subsidies on production and imports (income method)


Note that debt has no place in either calcualation.

When the question was asked on Quora whether debt is included in the calculation of a countries GDP the answer was:

Gross Domestic Product is an economic term defined as the total of all final goods and services produced in a country during a specified period of time, usually quarterly or annually. It can be viewed as a country’s total income, and would be similar to your calculating your total income (before taxes, interest, and other expenses and payouts).

You could subtract a country’s debt from its Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) but the result wouldn’t be terribly meaningful. It would be similar to subtracting the amount of all of your debt (the mortgage on your home plus credit card balances, for example) from your annual income. The result is an amount but what does it mean to you? Probably not very much.


You could do a calculation of debt to GDP as a means of evaluating some aspect of a countries economic viability in comparison to other countries but you are treating the two separately....as they are properly defined.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 May 2019, 00:02:17

Armageddon wrote:Apple YoY Revenue Growth (%)...
Q1 2019: -5%
Q1 2018: +16%
Q1 2017: +5%
Q1 2016: -13%
Q1 2015: +27%
Q1 2014: +5%
Q1 2013: +11%
Q1 2012: +59%
Q1 2011: +83%
Q1 2010: +49%
Q1 2009: +21%
Q1 2008: +42%
Q1 2007: +21%


Hmmm

Cherry pick one company for one quarter. LOL.

Ignore the entire market, since you've been wrong re the rapid "crash" all along. Yeah, that's real convincing. :roll:

Maybe you should apply at zerohedge.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 May 2019, 00:09:09

Armageddon wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.


I think not. GDP is an accounting issue and refers to the income side of the statement, not the balance sheet. Hence to calculate GDP you do not take debt into account. What you are calculating is closer to something called Real Growth which is GDP growth - growth in debt. But it is not GDP which is what was being reported. Get your facts straight.


I’ll take Denninger’s word over yours.

And did you take Denninger's word re Y2K being doom? After all, what would computer experts know. LOL

By the way, on this site, as a computer expert (IBM mainframe DB2 system programmer) who was consigned to deal with Y2K for my team, I pointed out on this site that re the enormous amount of work, testing, etc. we did, that only minor issues should be expected. e.g. some people might have to stand in line, or some report headers might be wrong. Things like that.

And of course, that, instead of doom of any flavor turned out to be the case, as logic and real world data trumps empty doom mongering year after year and decade after decade.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 May 2019, 00:18:25

rockdoc123 wrote:
armageddon wrote:This is a continuation of the 2008 crash


A continuation of the 2008 stock market crash? Have you lost all touch with reality?

Clearly he has (re economics), as the posts on this thread should clearly illustrate. Now he's resorting to pstarr type nonsense, claiming that a growing economy is a crash, that a decade of growth is a continuation of a crash, etc. He's completely around the bend, into shorty WTI $2 territory now, re just substituting pure nonsense for any objective reality.

I would expect a reversion to childish name calling any time now, since he's being called out on this nonsense.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 01 May 2019, 03:06:37

Oh no! The WTI is broken again!

For two days the WTI has been crawling on the rising trend line. Now it has broken down again.

Well...the day isn't over yet. They still have time to fix it. Up up up it must go!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Wed 01 May 2019, 04:28:48

Yoshua wrote:Oh no! The WTI is broken again!

For two days the WTI has been crawling on the rising trend line. Now it has broken down again.

Well...the day isn't over yet. They still have time to fix it. Up up up it must go!


Who is they?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Wed 01 May 2019, 04:35:38

@Armageddon

I want to clarify our wager so there is no doubt about the terms of it.

I am betting the Fed will not cut rates in 2019. If they do, I will not be able to post for the period of three months immediately following that action. On the other hand, if the Fed has not cut rates by December 31st, 2019, you must suspend posting for three months immediately. The loser may still log in at Peak Oil to read the board but not post for that three month time period.

Do I have your agreement as to the terms of the wager?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 01 May 2019, 04:47:54

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.


According to the BEA (which everyone except for you says is wrong) US GDP grew by 3.2% last quarter. World GDP is growing by 0.39%. This may be hard for a Texan to comprehend, but the US is not the world! In the mean time the velocity of money is falling to a crisis level, and the credit impulse is fast approaching zero. When the stock market collapses (if that happens before the 2020 elections) Trump gets beat by Alfred E. Newman, and the war mongers will need a new candidate to push their war machine that the US can no longer afford. The status quo will then need a little more status. Of course they will let most people starve so they can build bombs to drop on some mud hut in some desert. The lunatics are running the asylum.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 01 May 2019, 07:03:37

Nasdaq has broken down from its rising wedge.

Another glitch is coming?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5aPLJwW4AE ... name=large
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 01 May 2019, 07:35:44

Cog wrote:@Armageddon

I want to clarify our wager so there is no doubt about the terms of it.

I am betting the Fed will not cut rates in 2019. If they do, I will not be able to post for the period of three months immediately following that action. On the other hand, if the Fed has not cut rates by December 31st, 2019, you must suspend posting for three months immediately. The loser may still log in at Peak Oil to read the board but not post for that three month time period.

Do I have your agreement as to the terms of the wager?




I’m going to miss reading your posts while this crises starts really ramping up 2019 Q4.

But yes, we have a bet.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Wed 01 May 2019, 07:44:36

Thank you Armageddon. I always believe a good wager adds to the excitement and interest. I will miss your doomerish posts in the first quarter of 2020. LOL
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Wed 01 May 2019, 08:18:12

Flash estimate - Q12019 Euro area GDP up 1.5% and EU28 GDP up 1.9%, both SAAR.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents ... b3d2860a83
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 01 May 2019, 09:51:35

I am betting the Fed will not cut rates in 2019.

Now that we know where the 1'st quarter 3.2% came from (oil prices in 4'th '18 that created an oversized deflator) and that will be reflected in the 3'rd '19 GDP print you may be taking a big chance if liquidity issues persist on growing. IOER is above FF, and the dealers still have not reacted. A liquidity scare would spook the markets, and force the FED to cut; especially with King Trump hanging his gonads on the spectacular market meme. Oil has been range bound for a week in spite of the news, and the 10 yr is still at 2.5%. Chances are mounting that something is going to soon blow.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 May 2019, 10:56:20

Yoshua wrote:Oh no! The WTI is broken again!

For two days the WTI has been crawling on the rising trend line. Now it has broken down again.

Well...the day isn't over yet. They still have time to fix it. Up up up it must go!

Every time the WTI twitches down, you claim it's some kind of a "break down". And your accuracy rate is no better than pure randomness, re your calls, even within 24 hours.

But of course, that makes such calls worth listening to. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 May 2019, 11:02:05

Well, the ADP payroll number looks very strong. No doubt a strongly bearish signal to Armageddon and Short. :roll:

Even though the ADP number isn't very accurate compared to the monthly BLS report, this sure looks like an indication we're not "crashing" re the economy.

The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in April as payrolls in the services sector grew by the most in more than two years, according to data released Wednesday by ADP and Moody’s Analytics.

Private payrolls grew by 275,000 last month, the biggest increase since July, when they expanded by 284,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected private payrolls growth of 177,000.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/private ... -july.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 May 2019, 11:12:48

So, it looks like thus far that Armageddon "hyperinflation" call is looking about as accurate as the "stock market crash call" this thread was based on.

But I know, doomers constantly push out their dates, and expect to always be taken seriously, re their calls. :roll:

So now those calls are shifted to late 2019 to 2020, although real economists, who I trust far more than Armageddon re their calls, like Fed governors and private economists are increasingly calling for the interest rates to be stable to up.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed no change in March and remained well below the central bank’s target, a government report Monday showed. At the same time, consumer spending surged amid a jump in expenditures on motor vehicles and health care.

The core personal consumption expenditures index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was flat for the month and up 1.6% year over year. The headline number rose 0.2% for a 1.5% increase over the year.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/persona ... -2019.html

Red text mine, for emphasis. Yep, the economy must be surely dead for economic activity to accelerate. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 May 2019, 11:19:59

As I've been saying, anyone taking a reasonably objective view of the economy sees lots of mixed signs, despite the plethora of cherry picking doomer stats and calls on this thread.

Credible economists look at trends, and acknowledge when the overall trend is strengthening. For example:
Friday’s report of first quarter growth should show economy is strong and no recession in sight

Freezing weather and the government shutdown slowed the economy early in the first quarter, but it seems to have bounced back and now economists expect to see growth of about 2.5%.
The lack of data early in the quarter, due to the five-week shutdown, also led to concerns that the economy was seriously slowing and led to a spotty view of the U.S. economy and recession fears.
First-quarter GDP, though backward looking, is being widely watched now as a barometer for the economy’s health going into the second quarter.

...

Stanley said he expects that he expects growth of about 3.3% for the second quarter. He expects to see a comeback by the consumer, after sluggish spending growth in the first quarter. “Given the blowout retail sales we saw in March, the stage was set for a nice bounce back in Q2,” he said. He also said there are signs business spending will also pick up in the second quarter.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/fridays ... sight.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 01 May 2019, 12:50:56

Your links don't compel because they're not from Zerohedge ;)
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
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ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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