Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 02:31:16

When you feed pigeons they tend to flock around you and create a mess. Quit feeding them.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12305
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby careinke » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 02:42:43

Cog wrote:When you feed pigeons they tend to flock around you and create a mess. Quit feeding them.

^ THIS ^ +1
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3608
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 06:44:49

Just remember that the ETP Bozo recently has forecast ("pigeon poop") - err, mean world oil production in 2019 of 77.4 mb/d. His Side Car Clowns haven't caught up with the latest from the ETP "Nostradamus" Bozo. The latest call out from the EIA data says that January 2019 C+C production is 82.4 mb/d.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec11_5.pdf

That should fit nicely with the ETP Bozo forecast of a $2 WTI mean annual price starting in 20 months. ROTFLMFAO.
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 08:39:55

Sort of amusing watching the 2018 ETP thread get blown apart while that year progressed. Doomers drifted away from it so as not to be stained by the shame of it all. They gradually came over to this thread to preach their doom and predict a never-ending economic depression where the price of oil goes to zero because no one can afford oil at any price. An indirect way of resurrecting the ETP theory from the oblivion it rightly deserves.

But as we can see, their economic crash predictions have thus far proved as bad as their oil price guesses of 2018. A recession might eventually occur this year or next, but it won't have jack to do with anything a doomer predicted.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12305
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 09:16:50

Cog wrote:Sort of amusing watching the 2018 ETP thread get blown apart while that year progressed. Doomers drifted away from it so as not to be stained by the shame of it all. They gradually came over to this thread to preach their doom and predict a never-ending economic depression where the price of oil goes to zero because no one can afford oil at any price. An indirect way of resurrecting the ETP theory from the oblivion it rightly deserves.

But as we can see, their economic crash predictions have thus far proved as bad as their oil price guesses of 2018. A recession might eventually occur this year or next, but it won't have jack to do with anything a doomer predicted.



This is a continuation of the 2008 crash
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4680
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 09:36:36

This is a continuation of the 2008 crash


A continuation of the 2008 stock market crash? Have you lost all touch with reality?
At this time of the year in 2008 the S&P was at 1400, it subsequently fell to a low of 750 in early 2009 and was back to 1400 in three years time. It has rose steadily since and currently the S&P is at 2934 or double what it was at this time of the year in 2008.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 10:27:43

rockdoc123 wrote:
This is a continuation of the 2008 crash


A continuation of the 2008 stock market crash? Have you lost all touch with reality?
At this time of the year in 2008 the S&P was at 1400, it subsequently fell to a low of 750 in early 2009 and was back to 1400 in three years time. It has rose steadily since and currently the S&P is at 2934 or double what it was at this time of the year in 2008.



Economy, not stock market.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4680
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 10:29:48

Ouch! US PMI dropped to 52.6, lowest since 2017 vs 58.5 expected. Not one forecast for the MNI Chicago PMI survey expected this low of a print. Only 2 of 9 components showing an increase (order backlogs, production).
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4680
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 10:33:41

The commonly understood definition of a crash is that stock prices go down. But I guess in the doomer world such definitions are trivialities.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12305
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 10:56:11

This is a continuation of the 2008 crash


This decline has been in the works since at least the Dot.com crash of 1998. The ongoing decline in the velocity of money displays it. The maximum amount of energy provided from petroleum to the economy, as shown by the Etp Model, peaked at about that time. World debt began to grow exponentially shortly after that. We are eating our seed corn at a fantastic rate. Central Bank printing is the mechanism being used to consume existing assets. Pumping what little remains of the last high quality reserves will be the last kernel in the pile! With almost none of those reserves being replaced that will not take very long.

Image
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 5874
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 11:16:43

Pumping what little remains of the last high quality reserves will be the last kernel in the pile! With almost none of those reserves being replaced that will not take very long.


it is humorous that no matter how many times you are informed that both the BP annual report on global energy and the E&Y annual review of oil and gas production and reserves metrics in the US show more than full replacement of produced reserves on an annual basis for the past 5 years you continue to try to tell us reserves are not being replaced.

Please inform yourself with the actual data before you repeat this nonsense once again. It is getting very tiresome.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 12:25:37

Pumping what little remains of the last high quality reserves will be the last kernel in the pile! With almost none of those reserves being replaced that will not take very long.


More pigeon poop from the ETP Bozo.

Image
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 14:04:04

Trump calls on Fed to cut rates by 1% and urges more quantitative easing


Hey Donald, have you been reading my posts on PO.com?
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4680
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 14:32:33

The Fed is independent of the executive branch. But of course you knew that right?

I'll bet you a three month posting ban on our accounts the Fed does not lower rates in 2019? Want to wager Armageddon?
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12305
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 15:04:18

Cog wrote:The Fed is independent of the executive branch. But of course you knew that right?

I'll bet you a three month posting ban on our accounts the Fed does not lower rates in 2019? Want to wager Armageddon?



If it’s not in 2019, it will be prior to the 2020 election. It will be before an increase. That’s 100% guarantee.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4680
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 15:43:05

GDP: stop lying!!!

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

Suuurrreeee it did.

Math wins -- always.

$21,062.7 ($21 trillion on an annualized basis) - $20,865.1 ($20.865 trillion) last quarter = $197.60 billion increase in nominal dollars -- that is, in dollars in your wallet.

Over the same period of time the US Federal Debt went from $21,943.0 billion to $22.027.9 = $84.9 billion increase in nominal dollars.

One must subtract the number of unbacked nominal dollars from the alleged increase before computing the change.

This is an 0.54% rate of change on a quarterly basis, or 2.16% -- not 3.2%.

But it's even worse when you look annualized, which is much more accurate because Treasury commonly plays games with the debt figures on an individual month and quarter-end basis. If you use annualized numbers you evade that game-playing because they tend to play the same game at the same time every year. It's like Christmas -- if you use annual numbers instead of seasonally adjusted BS you evade all the game-playing from "seasonal adjustments" because Christmas comes at the same time every year.

So let's do that.

The difference in debt between March 30th 2018 and March 30th 2019 is $938 billion.

The difference in GDP between 1Q 2018 and 1Q 2019 is $1,022 billion.

The real change is not $1,022 billion it's $84 billion which is a tiny 0.418% over the space of a complete year.

In other words there is no growth whatsoever; it is all artificial and created by government deficit spending. In point of fact the economy is in a recession right here and now and Trump is lying through his damned teeth.

He is engaged in the exact same fraud that Obama (and others before) have engaged in; the pumping of deficit spending causes asset prices to go up but real economic activity does not increase as a result.

Only valuations increase -- that is, a bubble -- results.

When said debt accumulation driven by the insanity of these government policies reaches the point that real people can't pay, which always happens because real incomes in real terms, and real production in real terms have not actually gone up at all the bubble pops with disastrous results.

It will occur the same way this time it did the last two, except this time, just like the last two, it will be bigger than the last one.


Denninger

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=235698
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4680
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 17:53:53

Trump begging for a 1% rate cut and more QE. He knows what’s coming. He just doesn’t want the collapse prior to the election.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4680
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 18:09:19

Are you going to wager me or not?

There will be no Fed cut in 2019. Let's bet our posting privileges for 3 months on that outcome. Have some balls here on your predictions.

I'm only making this wager because onlooker actually paid off his wager unlike shorty. So I'm taking a risk here Armageddon that you aren't a welcher..
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12305
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 18:19:30

Cog wrote:Are you going to wager me or not?

There will be no Fed cut in 2019. Let's bet our posting privileges for 3 months on that outcome. Have some balls here on your predictions.

I'm only making this wager because onlooker actually paid off his wager unlike shorty. So I'm taking a risk here Armageddon that you aren't a welcher..



Bet
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4680
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 19:45:27

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.


I think not. GDP is an accounting issue and refers to the income side of the statement, not the balance sheet. Hence to calculate GDP you do not take debt into account. What you are calculating is closer to something called Real Growth which is GDP growth - growth in debt. But it is not GDP which is what was being reported. Get your facts straight.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 18 guests