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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 13:17:12

KaiserJeep wrote:A buying opportunity will result if the Doomies succeed in promoting panic. Everybody prepare to guess where the bottom is.

And for (insert favorite diety name here)'s sake, stop trying to defuse the silliness. Silliness, after all, causes the market to swing in both directions.

The data is what the data is. The economy, in time, will react to where the data and reality lead it. Trying to predict the timing and shape of future market movements, profitably over time, is basically impossible, after trading expenses are taken into account.

Buffett, Jack Bogle, and various books and papers on efficient index funds vs. active fund performance makes a VERY consistent case for this in recent decades.

How does having a discussion about data among a handful of folks with little influence over anything big-picture affect the overall market or economy to an extent that is measurable, much less affects profit making opportunities?

If the market is going to get "silly", it will sure do it without any help (or despite any help) by us. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 15:33:05

Doomers pretend to have a secret knowledge about the stock market, that the infamous THEY don't want you to know about. I wish I had this secret knowledge like they do, and I'd be richer than Croesus. But alas I must do this the old fashioned way and invest over decades in line with the S&P 500 index funds. How terrible for me.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 00:27:12

WTI crude oil price USD 62.90

The rising wedge has broken down...at this moment. Will it be saved before close? If not then the hedge funds that are long oil will panic.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 00:47:41

U.S banks had USD 2.5 Trillion in reserves sitting at the Fed. Today those reserves have fallen to USD 1.5 Trillion after the Fed ended the QE program, then started to raise rates and started its QT program.

Since those reserves aren't equally distributed among the banks, JPM thinks that the weaker banks are now having liquidity problems. Which banks? No one knows.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 04:33:10

No link, no context, and zero real information. Congrats Yoshua for providing a contentless post.

The Big Banks are subject to an annual stress test and they have all passed yearly since Dodd Frank was instituted. The Fed considers them well capitalized to withstand a moderate recession.

You can actually read about it here.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/ccar.htm
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 05:55:37

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 09:35:56

Bollocks. It is an oversupply issue or at least worries about oversupply. Demand continues to gradually increase year on year.


That makes about as much sense as saying that Chicago is a bowl of petunias. Venezuelan production is down 2 mb/d, and Iran 1 million. Shale has gone nowhere in 2019, and only increased 1.43 mb/d in 2018. US Shale is the only place the world has seen any increase in production in over a decade. The price is going down because there is still more oil than demand, and the quantity of oil being supplied has gone down. Q.E.D.

"DAILY UPDATE (April 26th to 27th - Updated) – “Advance” First-Quarter 2019 Real Annualized GDP Growth Picked Up to a Not-Credible 3.17%, From 2.17% in the Fourth Quarter / Nonetheless Consumer Economic Stresses Intensified Sharply / Net of an Inventory Increase, Final Sales Gained 2.52% / Headline GDP Strength Was Built Upon Incomplete and Government Shutdown Impaired Data / Collapsing Goods Consumption Implied by the “Improved” Trade Deficit Does Not Appear to Be Accounted For Fully / Revisions in May, June and July Should Be Meaningfully to the Downside"


John Williams is saying the same thing everyone else is saying, the BEA is out to lunch on the 1'st quarter's GDP report. One analyst stated: "This is banana republic like GDP forecasting."
http://www.shadowstats.com/

The world's banking system is running into a major crisis. There is a dire shortage of dollars with which to execute trade. US bank reserves have fallen by $6 trillion since late 2017, and China has a dollar crisis in progress at the this time. China's capital outflows are again hitting highs as wealthy Chinese are attempting to get their money out of the country. China has a foreign currency reserve problem since only 1.2% of the world's foreign currency reserves are held in Chinese Yuan. 62% of foreign reserves are in dollars, and about 30% in Euro. The Yuan is not a substantive trade currency, and China's dollar reserves are shrinking rapidly.

Per unit petroleum has lost 56% it of its ability to power the economy since 1960, and the world can not compensate by increasing production because we are at Peak. The oil that remains is losing its ability to power the economy at 2.2% per year. Consequently trade is falling fast, and third world countries like India are heading back to the stone age of tribal feuds. We are at the beginning of the end of the oil age, and those who insist on holding on to the old paradigms will find themselves joining the natives. They should get some practice at pounding the rocks together!

And - for anyone wondering how the Shale industry came up with all the money for companies that never turned a profit, and will never return their investments to the financiers.
Uncle to the rescue. If enough shit is pumped into a sock, it will leak out somewhere.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... l-money-go
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 10:41:48

That makes about as much sense as saying that Chicago is a bowl of petunias. Venezuelan production is down 2 mb/d, and Iran 1 million. Shale has gone nowhere in 2019, and only increased 1.43 mb/d in 2018. US Shale is the only place the world has seen any increase in production in over a decade. The price is going down because there is still more oil than demand, and the quantity of oil being supplied has gone down. Q.E.D. 



OK. Apparently, you would rather go with your gut feel than actual data? The data tells us that demand and supply are currently closely attuned and there is nowhere near a drop of 2 MM bbl/d in demand as you suggest. Indeed demand remains steady to gradually increasing. But go ahead ignore the actual data, ignore all the comments from the oil and gas analysts in the news (which I posted), apparently, your gut intuition is much better. :roll:

Image


And of course to find any kind of bad take on the economy or the success of the unconventionals you have to go to Shadowstats and Zerohedge. Do you really think this is convincing anyone with half a brain?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 13:52:34

rockdoc123 wrote:
That makes about as much sense as saying that Chicago is a bowl of petunias. Venezuelan production is down 2 mb/d, and Iran 1 million. Shale has gone nowhere in 2019, and only increased 1.43 mb/d in 2018. US Shale is the only place the world has seen any increase in production in over a decade. The price is going down because there is still more oil than demand, and the quantity of oil being supplied has gone down. Q.E.D. 



OK. Apparently, you would rather go with your gut feel than actual data? The data tells us that demand and supply are currently closely attuned and there is nowhere near a drop of 2 MM bbl/d in demand as you suggest. Indeed demand remains steady to gradually increasing. But go ahead ignore the actual data, ignore all the comments from the oil and gas analysts in the news (which I posted), apparently, your gut intuition is much better. :roll:

Image


And of course to find any kind of bad take on the economy or the success of the unconventionals you have to go to Shadowstats and Zerohedge. Do you really think this is convincing anyone with half a brain?

+1

Thanks rockdoc. I was about to go out and put together a similar rebuttal to shorty's nonsense, and then I saw your post.

Apparently ETP fanboi followers of his don't care about actual data either, or they wouldn't believe the pile of nonsense that forms his "ETP paper".

You'd think that in the modern world people would realize that intuition is no substitute for well verified data and serious analytics and/or science.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 14:40:07

OK. Apparently, you would rather go with your gut feel than actual data?


Actually believing what the IEA stated, which was that the legacy decline for the world's producers is now 4.5% per year, and that Venezuela, and Iran have collapsed, and that shale has Peaked is easier than the EIA short term energy outlook that has been wrong almost every year since 1973. In 2018 they missed it by 4m/b. They really need a new set of darts. Back in 2000 they were predicting C&C production at 130 mb/d by 2020. How did that work out? Now they are predicting a combination of oil, camel pee, and super cooled/ compressed swamp farts. Data?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 15:46:56

and that shale has Peaked is easier than the EIA short term energy outlook that has been wrong almost every year since 1973.


Nice try at deception....we are talking about current and historical data which they have not been "wrong" on given it is the offical data everyone uses. Like everyone else their predictions or forecasts are at the mercy of market forces.

But go ahead now argue that they are wrong with their current measure of demand and supply. This should be good. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 16:18:14

Near-record inventories pinch dealers

https://www.autonews.com/sales/near-rec ... ch-dealers


Wow
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 17:21:19

It feels like 2007 all over again. But this time with 2x the debt and only 2% FED rate. Let’s see how they pull monkeys out of their asses this time.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 17:31:00

Wealthy Elites Freak Out As Homeless Hordes Take Over West Coast Neighborhoods

Homeless? Impossible!! This economy is booming. Really, it is. Just ask the same people who said the same thing in 2006-2007.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... ghborhoods
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 17:48:23

OK. Apparently, you would rather go with your gut feel than actual data?


Actually believing what the IEA stated, which was that the legacy decline for the world's producers is now 4.5% per year, and that Venezuela, and Iran have collapsed, and that shale has Peaked is easier than the EIA short term energy outlook that has been wrong almost every year since 1973. In 2018 they missed it by 4m/b. They really need a new set of darts. Back in 2000 they were predicting C&C production at 130 mb/d by 2020. How did that work out? Now they are predicting a combination of oil, camel pee, and super cooled/ compressed swamp farts. It is not surprising that their margin of error has gotten a little out of hand!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 19:08:42

shortonoil wrote:Venezuela


How many months have you been harping on Venezuela's situation being a result of geologic depletion? How many times have we told you it's ABOVE GROUND factors like it was during the fall of the soviet union?
Repeating things over and over again won't make it so.
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ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 19:15:47

Actually believing what the IEA stated, which was that the legacy decline for the world's producers is now 4.5% per year, and that Venezuela, and Iran have collapsed, and that shale has Peaked is easier than the EIA short term energy outlook that has been wrong almost every year since 1973. In 2018 they missed it by 4m/b. They really need a new set of darts. Back in 2000 they were predicting C&C production at 130 mb/d by 2020. How did that work out? Now they are predicting a combination of oil, camel pee, and super cooled/ compressed swamp farts. It is not surprising that their margin of error has gotten a little out of hand!


WTF? I just answered that bit of nonsense up thread when you first spewed it. Do you think by saying it twice and ignoring when you are corrected that somehow makes you right? Jesus wept. :cry:

Here is what I said up thread when you first went down this very wrong road:

Nice try at deception....we are talking about current and historical data which they have not been "wrong" on given it is the offical data everyone uses. Like everyone else their predictions or forecasts are at the mercy of market forces.

But go ahead now argue that they are wrong with their current measure of demand and supply. This should be good. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 21:49:52

Armageddon wrote:It feels like 2007 all over again. But this time with 2x the debt and only 2% FED rate. Let’s see how they pull monkeys out of their asses this time.


Operating by how you feelz, makes you ill-suited to discuss the stock market. Or much of anything for that matter. Show me some factual doom.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby careinke » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 01:28:49

Armageddon wrote:It feels like 2007 all over again. But this time with 2x the debt and only 2% FED rate. Let’s see how they pull monkeys out of their asses this time.


It does feel like 2007 again. My personal canary, is when I can drive down the Key Peninsula Highway for 18 miles always being able to see at least one for sale sign alongside the road. Were not there yet, but it is getting close.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby careinke » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 01:32:36

Armageddon wrote:Wealthy Elites Freak Out As Homeless Hordes Take Over West Coast Neighborhoods

Homeless? Impossible!! This economy is booming. Really, it is. Just ask the same people who said the same thing in 2006-2007.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... ghborhoods


Actually, 99.9% of the ones in freeatle are druggies. Maybe when Trump drops the illegal immigrants in Feeattle, they can be used to build better homeless shelters.
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