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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 09:03:25

Since 01/04/19 WTI oil has advanced $5.18. Venezuela has lost about 1 mb/d, Iran has lost over 1 m/d, and shale has Peaked. The world has lost over 3% of its total production in 3 months, and the market is making no issue of it. Strange. Of course that can all be explained by magic fairy dust, and the action of Santa's elves. It is a good thing that the Oil Fairy Godmother is watching out for us. The stock market keeps going up although corporate buy backs are the only actors involved. There is Magic at work everywhere

$5.18 in 3 months with a huge production loss, and that is now a big run up?

U.S. WTI prices close to 40%.


On 01/04/19 WTI was $60.41. On 04/23/19 it is $66.20, but that is an increase of 40% according to the article below? Must have something to do with the New Math. The media is now littered with these types of articles.

https://www.axios.com/oil-traders-price ... 55d54.html

the spare capacity is certainly there

https://moneyweek.com/505466/real-reaso ... bout-iran/

OPEC will just wave its magic wand and oil will appear everywhere.This whole situation just keeps getting funnier, and funnier. Maybe the rapid shift in the world's magnetic fields has something to do with it? Nothing to see here; move along.

If you get the feeling that you are getting a snow job, that is because you are.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 09:27:08

It is like listening to air leaking out of a tire, and wondering if it is going to go flat.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... -recession

The world is post Peak, but to economics that is obviously not important. And, digital money is not safe; there are too many people who have figured out how to steal it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 12:19:34

shortonoil wrote:It is like listening to air leaking out of a tire, and wondering if it is going to go flat.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... -recession

The world is post Peak, but to economics that is obviously not important. And, digital money is not safe; there are too many people who have figured out how to steal it.

And according to your bad predictions, the world can't afford oil at $40, even as it does just fine with WTI north of $65. And it did just fine with WTI near $100 from mid 2010 to mid 2014.

And how's that ETP MAP working out? Just as well as your claim the global economy can't afford oil, and that its uneconomic to produce oil, yadda yadda.

In the world outside zerohedge and always-wrong fast crash blogs, the economy is very much a mixed bag.

It was recently reported that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq topping prior record closing levels. So much for the short term "Stock Market Crash" you and Armageddon love to bray about, re this entire thread.

https://etfdailynews.com/2019/04/23/the ... f-2930-75/

So what's next? More mindless name calling? More posting of nonsensical ETP charts? More nonsense about oil production, to get schooled by rockdoc? Bueller?

...

And PROPS to Cog for a brave call on the market hitting new highs in 2019 and being right.

Being right is just SO much more useful than being wrong, but making up for it in volume. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 12:28:54

shortonoil wrote:$5.18 in 3 months with a huge production loss, and that is now a big run up?

Your lack of understanding of simple supply-demand forces and economics is mind boggling.

Especially when you blather on with your mindless and nearly always wrong economic forecasting (pretending you know what you're talking about). If being delusional were equivalent to "The Force", you'd put Yoda to shame.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 15:58:35

More on those first quarter profits and new home sales. Sorry doomers, its just not your day. And a hat tip to Outcast Searcher for remembering my earlier call about market direction.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock ... 2019-04-23


The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs Tuesday as investors cheered the latest batch of solid corporate earnings, including those from blue-chip Coca-Cola Co. and social-media brands such as Twitter Inc.

How did major indexes fare?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.55% rose 145.34 points, or 0.6%, to 26,656.39, less than 1% away from its record. The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.88% added 25.71 points, or 0.9%, to 2,933.68, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.32% gained 105.56 points, or 1.3%, to 8,120.82.

What drove the market?
Earnings continued to dominate the market, with several Dow components such as Coca-Cola KO, -0.06% , Procter & Gamble Co. PG, -2.69% , United Technologies Corp. UTX, +2.27% and Verizon Communications Inc. VZ, +0.03% releasing quarterly results.

Shares of United Technologies rose 2.3% to lead the Dow higher after the company reported earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations, while raising expectations for its full-year performance. Shares of Coke also boosted the blue-chip index, rising 1.7%, on better-than-expected earnings.

Twitter Inc. TWTR, +0.15% shares led the S&P 500’s charge into record territory, up 16% after the social media company reported user growth well beyond analyst forecasts.

On the economic front, new-home sales in March rose 4.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000, the Commerce Department said.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 16:38:34

If being delusional were equivalent to "The Force", you'd put Yoda to shame.


As a composer of metaphors you really stink. "If delusion was equivalent to the Force"? If that makes sense to you it explains a lot. You must have a Chinese fire drill running continuously in your head.

Now, if the supply has been decreased by over 3 mb/d, around 4% of world production, and the price only goes up $5.73 what would have happened if all that oil had hit the market. We would have been looking at $30 oil, and most of the Western world's oil producers would be filing for bankruptcy, or the FED would be conjuring up another $trillion to bail them out. Iran is getting destroyed by the US because it might build a bomb someday to drop on you know who, and the Saudi don't like their version of camel worship. Venezuela is getting pulverized because Maduro is an asshole (which he is). Somewhere in the background EXXON is chuckling.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 00:26:19

The stock market is at an all time high! It is up 25 percent since December. It will rise in a parabolic curve almost 100 percent a year at this speed...while the GDP will grow 3 percent.

This is either perfectly sustainable...or the end of the world scenario.

I am sure that you all know what we doomers think.

:)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 03:43:54

I am pretty sure doomers don't think at all.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 10:32:36

Yoshua wrote:The stock market is at an all time high!


Great! So can we lock the thread now?

Image

It's nothing but off-topic generic economic doom-mongering.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 13:25:48

Who cares about

22 trillion dollar US debt
1.4 trillion dollar deficit
All time record personal debt
All time record corporate debt
All time record student loan debt

Thats like somebody buying a new house, new car, maxing out several cc’s and calling themselves wealthy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 14:05:11

shortonoil wrote:
Now, if the supply has been decreased by over 3 mb/d, around 4% of world production, and the price only goes up $5.73 what would have happened if all that oil had hit the market. We would have been looking at $30 oil, and most of the Western world's oil producers would be filing for bankruptcy

More total nonsense / BS from you.

If a 3% shift in expected supply moves the price under 10%, there is NO reason to presume a 3% shift in supply the other direction would move the price over 5 times as much -- except your delusions and lack of understanding about the oil markets and economics in general.

But keep dreaming. Maybe some day you'll actually get a meaningful call right.

Oh, and we just HAD oil under $30 in early 2016. Where were all those imaginary bankruptcies re "most" of the Western world's producers you keep babbling about?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 14:09:13

Armageddon wrote:Who cares about

22 trillion dollar US debt
1.4 trillion dollar deficit
All time record personal debt
All time record corporate debt
All time record student loan debt

Thats like somebody buying a new house, new car, maxing out several cc’s and calling themselves wealthy.

Who cares that uninformed doomers like you have been babbling/trumpeting the very same things for several decades and yet been persistently wrong as far as the trend, and COMPLETELY wrong re any flavor of economic "doom"? :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 14:48:48

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Who cares about

22 trillion dollar US debt
1.4 trillion dollar deficit
All time record personal debt
All time record corporate debt
All time record student loan debt

Thats like somebody buying a new house, new car, maxing out several cc’s and calling themselves wealthy.

Who cares that uninformed doomers like you have been babbling/trumpeting the very same things for several decades and yet been persistently wrong as far as the trend, and COMPLETELY wrong re any flavor of economic "doom"? :roll:




I posted factual things and yet i’m uninformed? Haha, you can’t make this stuff up. I think the 3 stooges are shills because there’s no way they can really believe the stuff they spew.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 17:13:52

I posted factual things and yet i’m uninformed? Haha, you can’t make this stuff up. I think the 3 stooges are shills because there’s no way they can really believe the stuff they spew.


They can't attack the data so they attack the messenger. It is the same tacit that has been used by every two bit tin dictator, and suppressor of truth since the beginning of time. Pathetic, or just obnoxious jerks?


Image

So which one is right? Most likely it is bonds. The bond market is 10 times larger than the equity market.

On the oil side, US crude inventories are going up as gasoline supply is going down. That is part and party to do with refinery utilization, which is still very low for this time of year. The increasing move to dumbbell crude as the quality of the world's oil supply continues to decline is likely the reason for the slow turn around in annual maintenance. The reality of Peak still has not reached the market, but it is not far away. The situation with legacy decline can not be hidden for long.

In other news the global equity market advance has stalled. China is backing off from its recent stimulus. China is running into cash flow problems; it is running short on dollars

Image

And if this looks like a booming housing market, there is a nice bridge in Duluth, Michigan for sale. Existing US home sales have been down for 13 consecutive months, and things are even worse in Europe, and Australia.

The end of the oil age will be preceded by a world in economic ruin.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 18:32:55

The last time semiconductor sales fell 20%+ y/y, SOX index was in process of plummeting 70% (550 in July '07 to 168 in mid-Nov. '08 - not soaring 36%). Only time "investors" were more irrationally idiotic was in 2000. SOX then collapsed 85%
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 21:52:02

And so the off-topic posts continue, unabated.

I can haz locked thread?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 06:23:01

The last time semiconductor sales fell 20%+ y/y, SOX index was in process of plummeting 70% (550 in July '07 to 168 in mid-Nov. '08 - not soaring 36%). Only time "investors" were more irrationally idiotic was in 2000. SOX then collapsed 85%


It is absolutely amazing that the market didn't completely tank on the news. Makes one wonder what is going on?

The World Bank is projecting crude prices at $66/ barrel for 2019. By our calculations that will place about a $1 trillion drag on the world's GDP this year. The economy is slowing sufficiently enough that even the Swedish central bank has now gone dovish, and announced that they will not be raising rates in 2019. The Krona tanked on the news.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 13:42:53

Just curious, where did pstarr go? His account is gone as are all of his posts. Did he finally grow up? Piss off a mod? Lose a bet?
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 14:53:40

kublikhan wrote:Just curious, where did pstarr go? His account is gone as are all of his posts. Did he finally grow up? Piss off a mod? Lose a bet?


I was told his account was somehow damaged during a server problem. I don't know if the damage is unfixable or not but he hasn't been back and we're all the better because of it. Hopefully after all these years he's rediscovered what life can be like without trolling this forum 24/7 but odds are he will be back again. Old habits die hard.

In the meantime, I continue to wait for "$0/barrel soon as per etp" ala his oh-so-wise prediction.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 15:29:58

kublikhan wrote:Just curious, where did pstarr go? His account is gone as are all of his posts. Did he finally grow up? Piss off a mod? Lose a bet?



Same thing happened to me. I emailed the admin and they restored it.
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