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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 15:35:21

Some day one of shorty's predictions might come true. Just ignore all the wrong ones he has made so far. ;)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 15:41:50

According to the latest Duke CFO Global Business Outlook Survey, released Wednesday, 67% of those surveyed predicted the U.S. economy would be in recession by the third quarter of 2020, and 84% believe a recession will have begun by the first quarter of 2021.  The survey generated responses from more than 1,500 chief financial officers, including 469 from North America, and additionally showed that thirty-eight percent of respondents predicted a recession by the first quarter of next year.

.
We are in a credit bubble the likes of which the world have never seen. One wrong move, one small ripple could make a massive tsunami that could quickly spiral out of control impoverishing millions, if not billions around the globe. Consider beginning to prepare now for what so many people already know is inevitable.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... ummer-2020

I really don't think they have a clue as to how bad this will be! 999 out of a 1,000 of them think that petroleum is something that grows on a tree!
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 04:08:01

You could have summarized with "I really don't have a clue", shorty.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 09:42:44

Some day one of shorty's predictions might come true. Just ignore all the wrong ones he has made so far. ;)


reminds me of Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom. For many years he continually predicted the markets falling completely apart, it never changed and the economy remained healthy and growing. And then in 2008 we had a recession and everyone is pointing to Roubini as somehow being smart and able to predict the recession? Go figure. Broken clock syndrome. But that is the thing with Doomsayers as long as they keep repeating the same thing over and over eventually their rant will coincide with a market downturn and they can claim success and some idiot in the media will think they are a guru. The telling part is none of them ever bet their own money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 14:21:44

rockdoc123 wrote:
Some day one of shorty's predictions might come true. Just ignore all the wrong ones he has made so far. ;)


reminds me of Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom. For many years he continually predicted the markets falling completely apart, it never changed and the economy remained healthy and growing. And then in 2008 we had a recession and everyone is pointing to Roubini as somehow being smart and able to predict the recession? Go figure. Broken clock syndrome. But that is the thing with Doomsayers as long as they keep repeating the same thing over and over eventually their rant will coincide with a market downturn and they can claim success and some idiot in the media will think they are a guru. The telling part is none of them ever bet their own money on their predictions.



People with more than two brain cells realize that these things aren’t sustainable:

-record government debt
-record corporate debt
-record personal debt
-record student loan debt
-1.4 trillion deficit (and growing)
-500+ Billion debt payment (and growing)

In the next few years we’ll be running several trillion dollar deficits and paying 1+ trillion debt payment. If you can’t see what’s coming, you aren’t paying attention.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 14:49:54

2008 comes along and things are crashing...

-FED cuts rates to zero for the next decade
-announces QE 1,2 and 3
-bail out the banks
-bail out the auto’s
-trillions in stimulus

11 years later... The US and the world’s debt has doubled. Things are heading back to where they were, but now the FED has only 2% of rates to cut. History tells us they 5-6% of rate cuts to combat a recession. Explain to me how they will stop this one?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 15:15:42

Explain to me how they will stop this one?


I don't remember anyone here saying that there wouldn't be another recession. But it isn't going to be tomorrow and your prediction of it being in the first quarter of 2019 already didn't work. Year end....maybe, 2020 sometime...even bigger odds. Guaranteed.....Not.

But don't let that stop you from keeping predicting the wheels are going to fall off tomorrow! :roll:

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 16:09:39

Armageddon wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
Some day one of shorty's predictions might come true. Just ignore all the wrong ones he has made so far. ;)


reminds me of Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom. For many years he continually predicted the markets falling completely apart, it never changed and the economy remained healthy and growing. And then in 2008 we had a recession and everyone is pointing to Roubini as somehow being smart and able to predict the recession? Go figure. Broken clock syndrome. But that is the thing with Doomsayers as long as they keep repeating the same thing over and over eventually their rant will coincide with a market downturn and they can claim success and some idiot in the media will think they are a guru. The telling part is none of them ever bet their own money on their predictions.



People with more than two brain cells realize that these things aren’t sustainable:

-record government debt
-record corporate debt
-record personal debt
-record student loan debt
-1.4 trillion deficit (and growing)
-500+ Billion debt payment (and growing)

In the next few years we’ll be running several trillion dollar deficits and paying 1+ trillion debt payment. If you can’t see what’s coming, you aren’t paying attention.

And yet, the clowns like you were saying the same sorts of things (different numbers at the time) in the mid-80's. Predicting hyper-inflation, just like you.

And yet in the real world, the issue has been not enough inflation for quite a few years now. Claiming big debt numbers while ignoring the rest of the national and global economy is nonsense.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 16:16:28

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
Some day one of shorty's predictions might come true. Just ignore all the wrong ones he has made so far. ;)


reminds me of Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom. For many years he continually predicted the markets falling completely apart, it never changed and the economy remained healthy and growing. And then in 2008 we had a recession and everyone is pointing to Roubini as somehow being smart and able to predict the recession? Go figure. Broken clock syndrome. But that is the thing with Doomsayers as long as they keep repeating the same thing over and over eventually their rant will coincide with a market downturn and they can claim success and some idiot in the media will think they are a guru. The telling part is none of them ever bet their own money on their predictions.



People with more than two brain cells realize that these things aren’t sustainable:

-record government debt
-record corporate debt
-record personal debt
-record student loan debt
-1.4 trillion deficit (and growing)
-500+ Billion debt payment (and growing)

In the next few years we’ll be running several trillion dollar deficits and paying 1+ trillion debt payment. If you can’t see what’s coming, you aren’t paying attention.

And yet, the clowns like you were saying the same sorts of things (different numbers at the time) in the mid-80's. Predicting hyper-inflation, just like you.

And yet in the real world, the issue has been not enough inflation for quite a few years now. Claiming big debt numbers while ignoring the rest of the national and global economy is nonsense.



You’re comparing apples to oranges when comparing the 80’s to what’s happening now. The current deficit is 1.4 trillion and will be several trillion is the upcoming years. We are in uncharted waters.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 16:33:33

Medicaid, Medicaid and SS will be exploding as the Baby Boomers keep retiring in record numbers. We’ll be collecting way less taxes with that and when the recession takes hold. The deficits will explode.

Imagine having a 3 trillion dollar deficit and 1+ trillion debt payment. That’s what’s coming.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 16:42:00

Armageddon wrote:Medicaid, Medicaid and SS will be exploding as the Baby Boomers keep retiring in record numbers. We’ll be collecting way less taxes with that and when the recession takes hold. The deficits will explode.

Imagine having a 3 trillion dollar deficit and 1+ trillion debt payment. That’s what’s coming.

And that's in a decade or two, when those chickens will come home to roost (or the can will be further kicked down the road somehow). IF something else doesn't change things, of course. (Which it generally does, since we can't see the future).

So how in the world does that valid observation justify your claims that:

1). The financial world was about to blow up in 1Q'2019, which it didn't?

2). The financial world is about to blow up in 2020, 2021, etc. as now you seem to be hedging on what your prediction even is.

...

There's a BIG difference between saying we can't pile up debt indefinitely (without enough economic growth to support it), and saying next week, month, year, etc. IS DEFINITELY THE TIME the music will stop.

Especially when the fast crash doomers have been so ABLY DEMONSTRATING this for the four decades I've been paying attention. Rockdoc is absolutely right re the credibility of the broken clock approach.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 16:48:32

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Medicaid, Medicaid and SS will be exploding as the Baby Boomers keep retiring in record numbers. We’ll be collecting way less taxes with that and when the recession takes hold. The deficits will explode.

Imagine having a 3 trillion dollar deficit and 1+ trillion debt payment. That’s what’s coming.

And that's in a decade or two, when those chickens will come home to roost (or the can will be further kicked down the road somehow). IF something else doesn't change things, of course. (Which it generally does, since we can't see the future).

So how in the world does that valid observation justify your claims that:

1). The financial world was about to blow up in 1Q'2019, which it didn't?

2). The financial world is about to blow up in 2020, 2021, etc. as now you seem to be hedging on what your prediction even is.

...

There's a BIG difference between saying we can't pile up debt indefinitely (without enough economic growth to support it), and saying next week, month, year, etc. IS DEFINITELY THE TIME the music will stop.

Especially when the fast crash doomers have been so ABLY DEMONSTRATING this for the four decades I've been paying attention. Rockdoc is absolutely right re the credibility of the broken clock approach.




Decade or two? Experts said the entire global economy nearly crashed in 2008. They used measures never seen before to halt it. What inventive measures do they have this time? You are severely underestimating what’s happening.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 17:25:44

t + 0 seconds: "Armageddon", BW Hill, and The Dissident Announce New Gold Standard
t + 3 seconds: "5000 Cities declare Bankruptcy and immediately are on fire"
t + 1 hour: "Armageddon, BW Hill, The Dissident rounded up and hanged by the neck
t + 2 hours:"End of New Gold Standard"
Its only an Apocalypse. Whats the big fuss?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 17:32:02

Upcoming Books from Outcast_Searcher:

2019: "Real Economy: Who cares?
2020: "Counterfeit Money is Fabulous"
2021: "Intermittent Power: Progress is Wonderful"
2022: "Lettuce is better than Meat"
2023: "Okay its over, Big deal"
Its only an Apocalypse. Whats the big fuss?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 20 Apr 2019, 17:42:20

There must be a reason CB’s and governments are stockpiling gold like never seen before. What do they know? What are they preparing for?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 07:33:59

There must be a reason CB’s and governments are stockpiling gold like never seen before. What do they know? What are they preparing for?


They are preparing for the point where the world's cash flow becomes inadequate to cover the cost of servicing the world's debt. With $253 trillion in debt, a cash flow of $57 trillion, and the world now at Peak Oil that should be real soon. At which point their debt backed fiat turns into trash can liner, and the present $ becomes worth about 4¢. Then again maybe they are grabbing all the gold they can find because having a lot of shining stuff piled up around the office is the new status symbol for global central bankers?

We might be finding out by the time Santa again arrives. Hope he stuffs his sleigh with a lot of shinny gold bars; they would be better than the ugly sweater that he gave me last year.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 22 Apr 2019, 14:46:56

US Existing Home Sales Slump For 13th Straight Month
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 22 Apr 2019, 16:56:05

The US is not going to renew waivers on Iranian sanctions, so there goes another 1 to 1.5 mb/d of production. The economy is so incredibly strong that the price of crude shot up about $1.50 a barrel. At first I thought that someone had moved the decimal point in the wrong direction, but on rechecking that wasn't it. It seems that no one thinks that even oil is very valuable anymore, and they are correct. But that gets into stuff like energy which is apparently way beyond the comprehension of Wall Street. Maybe they will get a better handle on it over the next few weeks when the bottom starts falling out of this market. "Sell in May and go away", will be taking on a new meaning in 2019. Here after it will be known as they sold in May, and never came back!

The CB's Jedi mind tricks are getting a little rusty.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 22 Apr 2019, 19:13:44

shortonoil wrote:The US is not going to renew waivers on Iranian sanctions, so there goes another 1 to 1.5 mb/d of production. The economy is so incredibly strong that the price of crude shot up about $1.50 a barrel. At first I thought that someone had moved the decimal point in the wrong direction, but on rechecking that wasn't it. It seems that no one thinks that even oil is very valuable anymore, and they are correct. But that gets into stuff like energy which is apparently way beyond the comprehension of Wall Street. Maybe they will get a better handle on it over the next few weeks when the bottom starts falling out of this market. "Sell in May and go away", will be taking on a new meaning in 2019. Here after it will be known as they sold in May, and never came back!

The CB's Jedi mind tricks are getting a little rusty.




We’ll see how long this economy can handle these gas prices. This is 2007 all over again but with double the debt and low interest rates.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 05:13:46

Gas prices are not high and $1.50 increase in crude oil per barrel doesn't translate into much at the pump. The national average price of gasoline right now is $2.84 gallon. Not high at all. But keep on dooming guys. Your desperation to find a doom event is quite amusing.
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