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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 17 Apr 2019, 18:25:28

They didn’t see the 2008 crises coming either.


Au contraire.....from CBS News in early January of 2008

The biggest investment bank on Wall Street has a grim prediction about 2008: a recession is definitely on the way.
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it believes the housing slump and recent credit market turmoil will spill over into the broader economy this year. 


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/goldman-sachs-brace-for-recession-in-2008/

In December of 2007 they had pointed out the US was going to suffer from the growing housing and credit market issues but they thought there was a chance recession could be avoided. They changed that view with a weeks time of that particular statement.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 17 Apr 2019, 18:36:12

I have a feeling they all knew what was coming in 2007 just like they all know what’s coming in 2019-2020. Considering consumer spending is 2/3 of GDP, they have to keep telling the heard everything is fine. People like Greenspan are a lot more forthcoming once they are no longer in office.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 17 Apr 2019, 18:42:03

German government halves 2019 growth forecast to 0.5%


Damn near the entire globe (with the exception of China, but who believes their cooked books) is near zero GDP. And most of the globe has zero or close to zero interest rates. We are entering a worldwide recession with no ammo. We are in uncharted waters and i don’t think we are going to be happy with the ending.

Got gold and silver? You better have

#globalcollapse
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 02:11:38

Yawn.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 07:17:21

Damn near the entire globe (with the exception of China, but who believes their cooked books) is near zero GDP.


China's electrical consumption fell by 1% last year, but their production was supposedly up. They must have 50,000,000 Chin's on a tread mill running those machines. Like the old USSR their numbers are notoriously unreliable. The CCP has a remedy for the problem though; if anyone in China tells the truth they take them out and shoot them. Its called Managed Accounts. Early reports stated that Chinese crude input to refineries was down 3.2% last year; the latest news is that it was up 3.2%? We are also not hearing anything more about the swine flue epidemic that wiped out a third of the country's hogs. The agricultural administrator who reported it is probably floating down the nearest river with the hogs. The Globalist, however, keep telling us that China is the world's growth engine, and will save the day. That likely has something to do with whose day they are talking about?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 09:36:40

So Armageddon and Short just double-down on cherry-picking any and all negative economic indicators OTHER than the thread topic.

Please start a general recession thread if you want to conjure up general recession fears, otherwise I'm going to start flagging as off-topic.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 11:22:39

"And finally, Williamson notes that GDP is expected to slow dramatically..."
“The April surveys are consistent with GDP rising at an annualised rate of just under 2%, with the official measure of manufacturing production remaining in decline."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... -gdp-slump

Everyone, and their pet gerbil is predicting a slow down. No one has connected it to oil. Must be they think that the economy is powered by skittles, and unicorn farts. When their head is glued fast to a double entry bookkeeping ledger, energy doesn't even come to mind. Or, as the old adage goes, "when your only tool is hammer, every problem looks like a nail"!

This whole shebang is going to fall into a black hole, and the money managers are going to be playing "find the pea" with CB interest rates. Event Horizon dead ahead.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 11:55:06

OK, let the flagging commence.

CHEERS!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 14:08:08

asg70 wrote:OK, let the flagging commence.

CHEERS!



90% of your posts are stupid comments about the poster. Never any substance. I guess you’ll be flagging your own posts too because they are never on topic.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 15:50:09

Armageddon wrote:90% of your posts are stupid comments about the poster. Never any substance. I guess you’ll be flagging your own posts too because they are never on topic.


Flagged.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 19:10:55

Has the stock market crashed yet?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 19:38:13

Cog wrote:Has the stock market crashed yet?


Ah, finally an on-topic post!

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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby longpig » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 19:48:01

Bill Holter – Entire System Based on Debt with Historic Liability
Published on 16 Apr 2019
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwPPG7VK5z0

Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter contends, “The entire system is based on debt. The entire system is a liability. So, some people are getting some of their money out of the system into real money (gold and silver) which is no one else’s liability. . . . The biggest thing is there is too much debt in the system. Everybody owes everybody, and all you need is one link in the chain to break. All you need is one entity that cannot make good on what they promised.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Bill Holter of JSMineset.com.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 20:06:03

- Japan and the US manufacturing falling.
- German manufacturing crashing.
- China imports falling.

All this despite of dovish pivoting of CBs and record stimulus from China .


Jim Rickards on the #Fed and the U.S #economy: "The conundrum is how do you raise rates in a weak economy without causing the #recession you are preparing to prevent" |

History tells us it takes 5% of interest cuts to combat a recession. Most of the world is at zero and the US is at 2%. The FED has no tools in their toolbox to stop this one.

#buckleupson
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 18 Apr 2019, 21:40:02

longpig wrote:Bill Holter – Entire System Based on Debt with Historic Liability


This schtick was better the first time a decade ago when it was Peter Schiff.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 03:59:49

They just don't do doomer predictions like they used to. Whether its pure laziness or simply running out of material to scare the rubes, I don't know. But I have not run for the hills, nor bought gold and silver, so its not having the desired effect.

But I did enjoy a couple days with some friends of mine in Missouri. His wife and he himself are great cooks and we ate like the kings of old. They got a chance to shoot my AR's and I got the chance to shoot a M-1 Garand, Smith and Wesson 44 Magnum, as well as some other Fudd guns. The recoil on either was not as bad as I imagined it would be. Between the three of us, one of us is a wild Bill Hickok and it isn't me. Sadness. More practice is needed for sure. The guys are slowly coming around to the AR point of view so perhaps there is hope for them.

Now what was the topic again? Oh yeah the impending stock market crash.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 07:48:19

Housing Starts Collapse Continues - Worst Annual Drop Since 2011


Even with historic low rates.

Not good
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 08:05:36

Armageddon wrote:Housing Starts Collapse Continues - Worst Annual Drop Since 2011


Even with historic low rates.

Not good


No links, no facts, no cares.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 11:08:29

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Housing Starts Collapse Continues - Worst Annual Drop Since 2011


Even with historic low rates.

Not good


No links, no facts, no cares.



Don’t believe....

Don’t care
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 19 Apr 2019, 15:14:13

"So what do all these very different recessions have in common? For one, oil price, demand and supply sensitivity appear to be consistent and frequent historical precursors to U.S. recessions. A spike in oil prices has preceded nine out of 10 post-WWII recessions".

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/e ... ssions.asp

Date GDP deline%
1960 2.4
1969 0.8
1973 3.6
1980 1.1
1981 3.6
1990 1.5
2001 0.3

Almost every recession since WW II has been preceded or accompanied by no change, or a decline in petroleum production, even when quit small. Peak will undoubtedly result in a long, very deep, and extended depression.

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