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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 13:34:06

Kudlow is 71 so that ain't saying much.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 15:55:01

Armageddon wrote:BREAKING! What an admission!!!! Larry Kudlow said: "interest rates may never rise again in his lifetime."
LOL


BREAKING! SOMEONE said SOMETHING! Go huddle under your kitchen table...stat!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 16:01:23

vtsnowedin wrote:The exact figure is not the point. The one I used was the second one I found and I don't know it's accuracy. The point I was making is that all those benefits need to be considered when measuring the relative wealth of poor people. Also consider that people with money in the bank or other assets don't qualify for many benefits in the US until they spend them down or manage to hide them and that leads to distorted figures.
That sounds like a policy that will trap the poor in a cycle of poverty and ensure they remain dependent on government handouts. Not just for the current generation either. With no wealth to inherit the next generation will be stuck in the same cycle.

For American families, the unequal distribution of wealth translates to their children as they grow older.

Researchers based in Sweden found that the rate at which Swedish children of wealthy, biological parents were likely to become wealthy was a significant correlation of 0.33 (with 0 meaning no correlation and 1 being exact). A positive correlation also exists for adopted Swedish children of wealthy parents. Naturally, as wealth is passed from one generation to the other in the form of inheritance and gifts, the children of rich parents become rich, too. Rich parents breed rich kids. But there’s more to the passing of wealth than inheritance.

From the moment a child is born into a wealthy family, their parents’ spending habits determine if they, too, will be in a high income bracket as an adult. It stems from how wealthy parents spend money compared to their low-income counterparts: where low-income families focus on immediate needs, such as food and transportation, rich families invest more on future-oriented purchases that will ensure their wellbeing.

The gap continues upon graduation, when more affluent students are substantially more likely to enter the workforce with little to no student debt. For less-affluent graduates, chains of student loan debt weigh down any chance of wealth accumulation. As their paths diverge, and the college graduates age and have families of their own, the cycle perpetuates.
WHY RICH KIDS BECOME RICH ADULTS AND POOR KIDS BECOME POOR ADULTS
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 16:05:13

Kudlow is 71 so that ain't saying much.


The average life expectancy of an American male is 78. Seven years. If you use Glass Plus to clean your crystal ball you'll get results. You're seeing the future of your right thumb!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 16:14:11

kublikhan wrote:That sounds like a policy that will trap the poor in a cycle of poverty and ensure they remain dependent on government handouts. Not just for the current generation either. With no wealth to inherit the next generation will be stuck in the same cycle.

Um, as if the current system of vote buying from the left isn't doing exactly that? We've seen it demonstrated for two generations re the left wing "war on poverty" to the tune of quite a few $trillions, thus far.

So no matter what, it's NEVER enough? Personal responsibility never matters?

Why not just be done with it and kill all the people with above median income, and redistribute all their wealth? /s (In the name of helping, "the poor", of course.

Then pretend like in 5 years, most of those newly "rich" people will be just rolling in money, due to prudent investment, harvesting of increasing dividends, etc.

Every time I see a left wing documentary, study, etc. on "the poor" the conclusion is ALWAYS that they need to be given more money, regardless of their behavior, and whether their predicament is (clearly) mostly self-inflicted, vs. having a middle class INCOME -- given all the government benefits the family unit receives.

Is no amount of failure enough before we try something else? Or at least just stop heaping on more of the same? Well, I suppose not, as it's buying dem votes with other peoples' money, so there's that.

By the way, the right is just as guilty re spending other peoples' money -- it's just on different things, like the military, regardless of real value or effectiveness.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 16:22:58

Anyway, all those DC critters live forever. Kudlow may make it to Maxine Waters age; who should have gone down with the Titanic!

And: use paper towels, and not cloth. Othersize, we might get the future of last night's TV dinner in your next post.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 16:26:14

Still waiting on this stock market crash you guys have been promising. Does your crystal ball need some batteries?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 17:01:03

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Um, as if the current system of vote buying from the left isn't doing exactly that? We've seen it demonstrated for two generations re the left wing "war on poverty" to the tune of quite a few $trillions, thus far.
Um, did you really think I was advocating for this?

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So no matter what, it's NEVER enough? Personal responsibility never matters?
Do you have like a closet full of strawman to attack whenever this topic comes up?

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Why not just be done with it and kill all the people with above median income, and redistribute all their wealth? /s (In the name of helping, "the poor", of course.
Seek help.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Is no amount of failure enough before we try something else? Or at least just stop heaping on more of the same? Well, I suppose not, as it's buying dem votes with other peoples' money, so there's that.
That's exactly why I was pointing out other countries who have actually managed to grow wealth for the poor. To see what others were doing that worked for them.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:By the way, the right is just as guilty re spending other peoples' money -- it's just on different things, like the military, regardless of real value or effectiveness.
I am not interested in your constant left vs right diatribe. I never even mentioned left or right. I was comparing our country to other countries to explore alternative systems which you claim to favor doing.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 10:20:01

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 12:16:06

kublikhan wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Um, as if the current system of vote buying from the left isn't doing exactly that? We've seen it demonstrated for two generations re the left wing "war on poverty" to the tune of quite a few $trillions, thus far.
Um, did you really think I was advocating for this?

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So no matter what, it's NEVER enough? Personal responsibility never matters?
Do you have like a closet full of strawman to attack whenever this topic comes up?

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Why not just be done with it and kill all the people with above median income, and redistribute all their wealth? /s (In the name of helping, "the poor", of course.
Seek help.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Is no amount of failure enough before we try something else? Or at least just stop heaping on more of the same? Well, I suppose not, as it's buying dem votes with other peoples' money, so there's that.
That's exactly why I was pointing out other countries who have actually managed to grow wealth for the poor. To see what others were doing that worked for them.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:By the way, the right is just as guilty re spending other peoples' money -- it's just on different things, like the military, regardless of real value or effectiveness.
I am not interested in your constant left vs right diatribe. I never even mentioned left or right. I was comparing our country to other countries to explore alternative systems which you claim to favor doing.

OK. So clearly we won't agree on this issue.

You getting pissy and saying things like "seek help" only puts you in the class of posters like shorty (who resorts to insults if he isn't winning an argument). Is that what you really want?

Or did you just miss the /s, meaning sarcasm on a statement in internet posts?

It seems to me that over time, we exchange some interesting ideas on various topics. I prefer that mode to exchanging insults. Your call.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 12:32:02

I suppose I could go Armageddon mode and cherry pick ONLY positive economic stats frequently in an attempt to "prove I'm smart and right".

Not playing that game. But against the notion, we're always "crashing", I'm noticing an lot of definitely non-crash-like economic news.

I think Jamie Dimon, the JP Morgan CEO (who, I believe, knows far more about economics than Armageddon ever dreamed of knowing) makes a good point:

But overall, the game of recession prediction is fool’s play, he said.

“Some confluence of events at some point in the future will cause a recession,” Dimon told reporters during a separate media call. “I don’t know what those are, nobody knows what those are, and nobody will ever know what they are. If you knew what they were, you would be unbelievably rich.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/jamie-d ... years.html

(Bold red text mine, for emphasis).

Get it all you confident economic prognosticators who think track records don't affect credibility? If you had the FIRST CLUE beyond random guessing or parroting the obvious stats, you would have far better things to do than predict "X" to try to get attention.

If you're going to do that, at least don't endlessly predict rapid doom, since a track record of zero correct calls is mostly worth the ignore button.

...

By the way, the same article points out that we might not have a recession at all, depending on Fed action and China Trade negotiation results, and if we do have a recession, it might be after 2021.

...

Meanwhile, the market is still "crashing upward", with the S&P 500 over 2900 now, and the Dow up 250 today.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 13:16:30

Outcast_Searcher wrote:OK. So clearly we won't agree on this issue.

You getting pissy and saying things like "seek help" only puts you in the class of posters like shorty (who resorts to insults if he isn't winning an argument). Is that what you really want?

Or did you just miss the /s, meaning sarcasm on a statement in internet posts?

It seems to me that over time, we exchange some interesting ideas on various topics. I prefer that mode to exchanging insults. Your call.
I too would prefer that but IMHO you get pissy over the issues of poverty, social spending, etc. I'm guessing it's because in the past you tried to help out those less fortunate and instead of saving/investing they blew it all like lotto winners. Now whenever this issue comes up you get bitter and rant about how much the left and right suck. Not very constructive IMHO.

Also, you seem to miss that just because I'm talking about poverty in the US doesn't mean I think doling out ever larger amounts of money in transfer payments is going to solve the problem. Breaking the cycle of poverty is a difficult problem to solve. I think education would be one important tool to help. The public k-12 schools in this country need improvement IMHO. Not just on traditional subjects. But also put more emphasis on consumer education topics like the importance of saving for the future vs the folly of the lotto mentality. Also, perhaps make donating a minimum amount of your earnings to a 401k/IRA mandatory. Perhaps a mandatory match from the employer and/or government as well.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 13:20:19

S&P 500


World Debt is growing 4.41 times faster than its GDP.

Still waiting on this stock market crash you guys have been promising. Does your crystal ball need some batteries?


Your brain could use a recharging.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 13:31:49

shortonoil wrote:According to the World Bank, world GDP between 20014 and 2017 grew at an average annual rate of 0.065%
Incorrect. According to the World Bank, world GDP between 2014 and 2017 grew at an average annual rate of 2.8%:

year global gdp growth
2014 2.86%
2015 2.86%
2016 2.5%
2017 3.1%
World Bank GDP growth (annual %)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 17:32:26

According to the World Bank, world GDP between 20014 and 2017 grew at an average annual rate of 0.065%


You are correct, I punched a wrong number somewhere. The actual number is 0.39%.
80.738 - 79.18/4 = 0.39%. The average yearly GDP increase between 2014 and 2017.

Year GDP trillion
2014 79.18
2015 74.916
2016 75.995
2017 80.738

Where you got your numbers from I don't even want to know!
Typical uniformed American; thinks the US is the entire world.

The decline in world growth to a virtual stand still, while debt formation continues to grow is why interest rates must go down. When they fall below zero the credit formation process ceases, and debt backed fiat currencies fail. Peak is assuring that is what will take place, and we are now at Peak. New well production can no longer compensate for existing decline.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 17:51:31

Where you got your numbers from I don't even want to know!
Typical uniformed American; thinks the US is the entire world.


His numbers come from the same world bank site you point to. In fact that chart you link to can show year on year change in %

2014 - 2.859%, 2015 - 2.856%, 2016 - 2.513%, 2017 - 3.138%

the average between 2014 and 2017 is hence and increase of 2.8415% ignoring significant digits.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 17:52:14

My data comes from the world bank. Here is the link again since apparently you missed it the first time:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg

I wonder if you can appreciate the irony of your US centric statement. The link you provided measures the entire world economy in US dollars. In case you did not know this, every nation has their own currency. By trying to use a US centric measurement like the US dollar for the entire world economy and then doing the math yourself to figure out what global GDP is you will generate an erroneous numbers like 0.39% of global GDP growth. I did warn you before not to try and do math yourself shortonoil. You will just make yourself look stupid like you just did now.

if the link to a graph I posted is still too complicated for you how about the world banks own words for GDP growth in 2017:

Global economic growth is forecast to accelerate moderately to 2.7 percent in 2017.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press- ... investment
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 08:44:37

The link you provided measures the entire world economy in US dollars. In case you did not know this, every nation has their own currency.


In case you didn't know there is a thing called the FX market. That is where the relative value of currencies is set. So all currencies can be compared to the US dollar (or any other currency) which is the world's reserve currency; which is at present the standard. Are you really that stupid; rhetorical question.

From your link on WORLD GDP, which is NOT the world.

World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg

The OECD is not the world, you dismal moron. Just more trolling crap from you, or you have the reading comprehension of an oyster!

World GDP growth has stalled (0.39 is a very small number for the mathematically impaired among us) but world debt formation hasn't. With slow, to no growth for world GDP, and a high debt formation rate that debt becomes ever more difficult to service. That drives interest rates down until they go negative, and the credit creation process ceases to function. The world then collapses into a black hole of cascading defaults.

Peak (that we are presently at) assures that no growth will take place. The only place that growth can occur is from CB currency creation; which drives interest rates down even further, and that negates the currency that the CB created.

For those looking for a free lunch, try the Salvation Army.

For world GDP growth, go here. Not numbnuts supposed link to the OECD.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

Petroleum production growth has driven world GDP growth for the last 159 years. Now that petroleum production growth has ceased so also will world GDP growth. Interest rates will continue to fall (two thirds of EU sovereign debt is already negative) and the credit market is locking up. Venezuela on steroids is in the making.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 09:44:00

shortonoil wrote:From your link on WORLD GDP, which is NOT the world.

The OECD is not the world, you dismal moron.
And that data is not OECD only, you dismal moron. Look below you can see all of the indivdual countries listed, not just OECD countries. It clearly states WORLD GDP on the graph. I thought the word world would tip you off but I guess you are too stupid too read.

It is the same source you get your data from. Look at the details tab on your data:

Source: World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

shortonoil wrote:In case you didn't know there is a thing called the FX market. That is where the relative value of currencies is set. So all currencies can be compared to the US dollar (or any other currency) which is the world's reserve currency; which is at present the standard. Are you really that stupid; rhetorical question.
And do you know why your numbers are different from mine despite the fact they came from the same source data? Because your link is for CURRENT US dollars. Mine is for CONSTANT US dollars. That means if there were large fluctuations in the relative value of currencies you will not be getting accurate data trying to figure out GDP growth from year to year. According to the World Bank, when you want to measure the growth of the data you need to look at CONSTANT dollars not current:

What is the difference between current and constant data?
Current series are influenced by the effect of price inflation. Constant series are used to measure the true growth of a series, i.e. adjusting for the effects of price inflation. For example (using year one as the base year), suppose nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises from 100 billion to 110 billion, and inflation is about 4%. In real prices, the second year GDP would be approximately 106 billion, reflecting its true growth of 6%.

Except for rare instances of deflation (i.e. negative inflation), a country's current price series on a local currency basis will be higher than its constant price series in the years succeeding the constant price base year. However, this relationship does not hold when the data are converted to a common currency such as U.S. dollars. Many countries have had large devaluations of their currency since 1995 (particularly since 1998), which may cause the current dollar series to be lower than the constant dollar series.
https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/know ... nd-constan

If that is still too complicted for you to understand how about just looking at what the World Bank itself says are the GDP growth rates?
Image
http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/2029315 ... -data.xlsx

Note the word "World" in the above? Not US. Not OECD. The whole big bad world. Also note the source: "World Bank". Also note the numbers. NOT 0.36%. They are
2016: 2.4%
2017: 3.1%
2018: 3.0%
Do you finally get it?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 13:03:35

kublikhan wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:OK. So clearly we won't agree on this issue.

You getting pissy and saying things like "seek help" only puts you in the class of posters like shorty (who resorts to insults if he isn't winning an argument). Is that what you really want?

Or did you just miss the /s, meaning sarcasm on a statement in internet posts?

It seems to me that over time, we exchange some interesting ideas on various topics. I prefer that mode to exchanging insults. Your call.
I too would prefer that but IMHO you get pissy over the issues of poverty, social spending, etc. I'm guessing it's because in the past you tried to help out those less fortunate and instead of saving/investing they blew it all like lotto winners. Now whenever this issue comes up you get bitter and rant about how much the left and right suck. Not very constructive IMHO.

Also, you seem to miss that just because I'm talking about poverty in the US doesn't mean I think doling out ever larger amounts of money in transfer payments is going to solve the problem. Breaking the cycle of poverty is a difficult problem to solve. I think education would be one important tool to help. The public k-12 schools in this country need improvement IMHO. Not just on traditional subjects. But also put more emphasis on consumer education topics like the importance of saving for the future vs the folly of the lotto mentality. Also, perhaps make donating a minimum amount of your earnings to a 401k/IRA mandatory. Perhaps a mandatory match from the employer and/or government as well.


Not to mention doing something about the quality of parenting. And there is bringing choice to bear upon the subject as well. The country, lay aside the world, is too afraid to engage in a legitimate argument over whether so many old wives tales need to receive so much respect when it comes to bringing children up. Do we really need to tolerate people who beat their kids? Addressing planning to have children, and not having them until a person is ready, may help that. I think we are too caught up in the means used to address our failures, and not respecting the change in mindset,- that planning means preparing one's self to become a parent, that could make a much bigger difference. Why is there no systematic program of study regarding parenting from which people could draw upon to prepare for it? And the school system is still aimed at putting its graduates to work in factories rather than teaching them how to educate themselves and change according to the needs of entrepreneurs.

Basically, the world needs to engage in a philosophical argument over what love is. It needs to come to the place where it discovers that love must be more than a feeling. It must also be understood to be a decision. Feelings are only good as motive forces. They can't organize a situation into what must be done in order to produce an outcome. We use it to induce women to become mothers, and then assume that the feeling will use a non existent mothering instinct in order to being up children. Human beings don't have instincts, not like that. We can do better. Decision can do that. Perhaps, if we can add to the definition of love beyond that of a feeling, we can then get away from the situation as it currently stands where we throw more fuel upon the fire rather than putting the fire out.
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