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The 2019 Greenland Thread

Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 28 Jul 2019, 22:43:15

Yes, but the increased melting and accelerated ice velocities are happening EVERYWHERE in Greenland. Your suggestion that accelerated glacier flow is related to high heat flow areas doesn't make any sense since there is no correlation between areas of high heat flow and the ubiquitous and extensive changes occurring in Greenland.


what part of the majority of dynamic ice loss has historically been from Jakoshavn Isabre which is located immediately adjacent high heat flux and a sampled thermal spring did you not get?
What part of the ice sheet areas on the edges of Greenland where they can measure loss are all sourced from the interior major sheets which originate above the high heat flow areas did you not get?
Please show us all the data you have with regards to ice sheet loss in areas that the Martos, 2018 geothermal heat flux map shows as low heat flux that support your argument.
I've referenced published articles....your response is to say "I don't want to believe any of that I think it has to be this". Very scientific. :roll:
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 28 Jul 2019, 23:51:59


what part of the majority of dynamic ice loss has historically been from Jakoshavn Isabre ... did you not get?


What part of geography do you not get? The Jakoshavn glacier is an "outlet glacier." It drains a large region of the main central Greenland ice sheet---OF COURSE a large amount of ice from that large region reaches the sea there.....the topography and geography of Greenland and the Greenland ice Sheet itself dictates that the ice flow that way.

Image
Please also note that the Jakoshavn Glacier occupies the west central part of Greenland which is some distance from the region of slightly elevated heat flow in east Greenland that you are falsely claiming is causing rapid ice flow at Jokoshavn.

Once again you are having a small but fundamental problem with basic geography. Your calling on higher heat flow in eastern greenland to explain higher ice velocity and flux in western Greenland is ridiculous and nonsensical, even for you. I suggest you had better figure out the difference between east and west before you move on to more difficult subjects. I'll give you a hint....the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Hahahahahahah! :-D 8) :P :roll:

Please note that ice from other parts of the Greenland ice sheet flows away from the ice divide and terminates in other areas. And they all are being affected by record warming, which produces record melt, which changes the hydrologic regime and the flow regime of the entire ice sheet. If you think logically about it, calling on small localized areas of moderately higher heat flow to explain accelerated ice melt and ice flow over most of greenland just doesn't make any sense.

What is affecting all of Greenland? Why global heating of course. In fact, Greenland ice is melting at record rates right now due to the record warm temperatures we are seeing in the Arctic this year

europes-heat-wave-threatens-record-melting-of-greenland

Do you get it now?

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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 10:44:09

Once again you are having a small but fundamental problem with basic geography. Your calling on higher heat flow in eastern greenland to explain higher ice velocity and flux in western Greenland is ridiculous and nonsensical, even for you. I suggest you had better figure out the difference between east and west before you move on to more difficult subjects. I'll give you a hint....the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Hahahahahahah! :-D 8) :P :roll:


and once again you selectively quote from me and twist the meaning. It has become a standard operating procedure with you. Amazing to me that you seem to think nobody will see through your charades

As I pointed out a couple of times Jakobshavn Isbrae is located in the immediate vicinity of an area of high heat flux. This is shown in the diagram I already posted from Martos which of course you completely ignored. That diagram clearly shows high heat flux distributed over large areas of Greenland and not just limited to the the NE GIS. The presence of the high heat flux near Jakobshavn is also pointed to in the paper by Rysgaard et al which I referenced above:

Rysgaard, S, et al, 2018. High geothermal heat flux in close proximity to the NE Greenland Ice Stream. Scientifi Reports, 8. 1344. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-19244-x

High glacier surface speeds and negative mass balance are also observed near other hot vents in West Greenland such as the Jakobshavn Isbræ (69°N) near Disko Island; the Narssaq bræ, Valhaltinde glacier, Nordbo glacier and Qassimiut ice lobe in South Greenland all show negative ice mass balances near the hot vent in Uunartoq (60°N); in East Greenland the Helheim glacier, Isertoq and Mittivakkat glaciers located near Ikasagitavaq (66°N) are losing mass, and high ice speed is also observed at the Kangerdlugssuaq glacier where a GHF of 70–80 mW m−2 has been recorded (68°N)


and if you bothered to read my post what I said was:

And the areas of high heat flux are not just confined to one area in Greenland (as the following map shows). The ice streams all have their origins in an area that is impacted by the region of high heat flux. In fact the high heat flux areas correspond to the origin areas of very important ice sheets such as the Northeast Greenland Ice Sheet and the Jakoshavn Isbrae sheet is also sitting in an area of high geothermal heat flux (and hot water vents) and that particular ice sheet is responsible for large historic losses from Greenland.


but you somehow want to change that to me saying all the high heat flow is located in NE GIS.

For once in your life read what people write. I'm not sure if English is a second language for you or you just struggle with basic literacy but misreading what someone posts, not bothering to familiarize yourself with the extensive literature and then claiming victory based on combining those two inadequacies with an opinion based on God knows what may make you happy but it simply demonstrates to everyone here that you are indeed a complete moron.
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 11:23:30

you are indeed a complete moron.


No, actually you displaying the maturity of a six year old who starts acting out and calling people names when he loses an argument..

Cheers!
Last edited by Plantagenet on Mon 29 Jul 2019, 11:35:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 11:33:51

Greenland ice margins are locally sliding over solid bedrock base

ice-edges-greenland-sheet

The more things change the more they stay the same. The classic model of ice movement predicted ice would slide across bedrock, especially in areas lubricated by water. Then new research showed that many glaciers actually slide across wet mud at the base of the glacier and the paradigm shifted. Now the "discovery" that glaciers slide across bedrock seems new, when in fact it was the accepted theory for ice movement for most of the 20th century.

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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 12:34:22

OK, this is pretty funny. If you had bothered to read the actual paper that the press release refers to:

Maier, N et al, 2019. Sliding dominates slow-flowing margin regions, Greenland Ice Sheet. Sci Adv, 7, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw5406

Their study was done near the terminus of Isunnaguata Sermia ice sheet located in SW Greenland. What they said was:

Consequently, winter ice flow, despite the lack of surface meltwater forcing, is the central driver of the annual mass flux along the margins of the GrIS


Which is certainly at odds with your claim it is all about surface melting and “global temperatures”.

But lets look at the relationship of Isunnaguata Sermia and compare it with heat flux across GIS.

Oops….looks like it is right there along with Jacoshavn Isbrae sitting on the edge of areas of high heat flux.

location of Isunnaguata Sermia and the study mentioned (33 km upstream from the terminus)

Image

Heat flux measured over GIS

Image

I guess it might help to actually read the relevant literature? :roll:
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 15:49:41

....winter ice flow, despite the lack of surface meltwater forcing...


Glacier hydrology is a bit more complex then that, Crockpot. I'm afraid I'll have to give you a D on that silly question. Even you should've been able to think through this one without my help :lol: :razz: 8) :roll: :o :P

But OK, I"ll help you out again. But please pay attention this time....I don't like having to repeat everything multiple times for you. One time around should be enough for even a thickie like you.

Water doesn't disappear from the glacier during winter as you are suggesting....there is still water within the glacier and it is still playing a role in glacier flow.

While its true that no new meltwater is generated during the winter, some of the large amount of water that was generated by melting during the previous summer is still there in the glacier. And a very small amount of additional water is being constantly generated throughout the year by heat flow. And water is also generated by internal friction through processes like regelation. Thus, believe it or not, water in glaciers plays an important role in how most glaciers flow and behave, even in winter.

Do you get it now?

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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby clif » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 17:09:09

Xavier Fettweis
‏ @xavierfettweis

A heat wave is starting tomorrow over Greenland with Tmax reaching 25°C in tundra. The integrated anomaly of melt over the next 5 days (resp. over Summer 2019) will be 40Gt ~0.11mm (resp. ~0.65mm) sea level equivalent. Summer 2019 = what the models project for 2050 using RCP85.

If Aug 2019 is in continuity of Jun-July 2019 (which is very likely), we can estimate that the 2019 SMB anomaly will be ~360GT/yr ~ 1mm sea level. In 2100, using RCP45, the models project anomalies ~ -200 GT +/- 100

The 2019 surface melt anomaly over the Greenland ice sheet corresponds to what the IPCC models (AR5) project for 2100 using RCP45 or 2050 using RCP85, suggesting that Greenland contribution to sea level rise needs to be reevaluated.
12:47 AM - 26 Jul 2019


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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 17:30:32

Water doesn't disappear from the glacier during winter as you are suggesting....there is still water within the glacier and it is still playing a role in glacier flow.

While its true that no new meltwater is generated during the winter, some of the large amount of water that was generated by melting during the previous summer is still there in the glacier. And a very small amount of additional water is being constantly generated throughout the year by heat flow. And water is also generated by internal friction through processes like regelation. Thus, believe it or not, water in glaciers plays an important role in how most glaciers flow and behave, even in winter.


Jesus wept. Literally, dozens of published papers pointing to high heat flux creating melt at the base of GIS, numerous papers pointing to geothermal vents indicating heating from below and maps indicating a correspondence between high heat flux and ice sheet loss, but you just want to ignore all of that published information. Instead you want to go with the belief (and it is nothing more than a belief) that it all has to do with surface water and moulins. And, by the way, pressure melting at the base of glaciers has nothing to with global warming. AS well please show us the data supporting your claim that only a small amount of water is generated by heat flow. That should be easy for you as you apparently are the self-proclaimed expert. You might also explain to everyone here how meltwater created in the summer can remain at temperatures above melting when there is no connection to melt from the surface (winter months) without the support of elevated geothermal heat which would keep the overlying ice at or near the melting point (thermal disequilibrium).

Did you not miss that point that for a number of years in GIS the SMB (snow minus melt) has been positive? Apparently, you did because what that means is the water at the base of GIS isn't coming predominantly from the surface during those periods at least. And, as usual, you completely ignore the lack of correlation of global temperature rise with SMB in Greenland. As usual, ignore that which doesn't fit your preconceived model.

So please just show us how all those papers I pointed to are incorrect instead of repeating the same baseless arguments that aren't backed up by recent reference material.
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 17:49:06

clif wrote:The 2019 surface melt anomaly over the Greenland ice sheet corresponds to what the IPCC models (AR5) project for 2100 using RCP45 or 2050 using RCP85, suggesting that Greenland contribution to sea level rise needs to be reevaluated.
12:47 AM - 26 Jul 2019


Excellent post, clif. Informative and intelligent. Thx! :idea:

IMHO the main take-away is that Greenland is warming up much faster then the IPCC predicted.

When you go back critically examine the models used in the IPCC estimates you find that many of them don't include any feedback effects from global warming......and since feedback effects (like removing ice cover from the Arctic Ocean) amplify the warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere this leads to underestimates of the timing and the magnitude of the warming the planet is undergoing, and underestimates of the magnitude of the consequences of global warming in things like the rate and magnitude of sea level rise.

Image

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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 18:28:23

Plantagenet wrote:the main take-away is that Greenland is warming up much faster then the IPCC predicted.


hmm... I wonder why.... Could it be.... a whole lot of people doing this sort of emissions-heavy activity lately?

#CognitiveDissonance
#TragedyOfTheCommons

But no, let's just post cartoons bashing the IPCC.
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 21:47:27

asg70 wrote:[
hmm... I wonder why.... Could it be.... a whole lot of people doing emissions-heavy activity lately?


Don't feel too guilty asg/mos/ennui---the 15-25 tons of CO2 you released with your purchase of new car is indeed a huge amount of CO2 emissions for one person, but its just a tiny fraction of global emissions.

carbon-footprint-new-car

If I might make a suggestion...please consider buying a carbon offset for that 15-25 tons of CO2 you released. It might help or it might not, but it would show some concern on your part about this problem.

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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby dissident » Mon 29 Jul 2019, 23:53:50

The claim that climate models don't include feedbacks is misleading. They don't include detailed ice sheet models since there is not enough computing power to do 50 and 100 year simulations in a reasonable timeframe. Climate simulations are done in ensembles to increase the confidence levels on the results. Everything about climate models is simplified. They do not do detailed aerosol microphysics and chemistry. They don't even do much chemistry (gas and cloud) to start with.

Even though flowing ice models can be included and would break the wallclock bank on the simulations, they are also limited. Nobody has a model that captures the melt water propagation from the top of the ice sheet to its base. This physics problem is a pain to model since it involves nanoscale effects of water moving via capillary action on crack interfaces which are tightly compacted through most of the depth of the ice sheet. Cracks with large separation do not extend from the surface to the depth of a 2+ km thick glacier. It is too elastic and fractured to resist the massive weight driven pressure. Water will not freeze when compressed as it is in the tightly bound crack interfaces. But it can still flow via capillary action. At best such physics has to be parameterized and I am not aware of any such scheme for climate models.

IPCC is also a conservative and politically compromised outfit. As with its original absurd 50 cm sea level rise predictions, it believes in the "if in doubt, then leave out" philosophy. So feedbacks an processes that do not have published numerical implementations or ones not good enough are just ignored. Of course the results then fail to capture the real world warming.
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 30 Jul 2019, 07:11:11

The heat dome that just left Europe is about settling over Greenland (see heatwave thread).
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 30 Jul 2019, 10:39:52

Climate Chaos is Coming
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 15:49:09

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Image


Greenland Is Melting Away Before Our Eyes
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/gre ... 18204.html

Amid an ongoing heat wave, new data show the Greenland ice sheet is in the middle of its biggest melt season in recorded history.


Weather models indicate Tuesday’s temperature may have surpassed 75 degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of Greenland, and a weather balloon launched near the capital Nuuk measured all-time record warmth just above the surface.

That heat wave is still intensifying, and is expected to peak on Thursday with the biggest single-day melt ever recorded in Greenland.

On August 1 alone, more than 12 billion tons of water will permanently melt away from the ice sheet and find its way down to the ocean, irreversibly raising sea levels globally.

A tweet from the Danish Meteorological Institute, the official weather service of Greenland, said “almost all the ice sheet, including Summit” measurably melted on Tuesday. According to a preliminary estimate, that melt covered 87 percent of the ice sheet’s surface, which would be the second-biggest melt day in Greenland’s recorded history. Separate weather monitoring equipment at Summit Camp at the top of the 10,000-foot-thick Greenland ice sheet confirmed the temperature briefly reached the melting point.
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Baffin heat

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 16:59:01

Baffin island has been warm this spring/summer, early melt of sea ice to the East....

There must be data on Baffin, far smaller thus less important but these icecaps will go first, same for Iceland.
Canaries down the mine. Lemmy look.....
Here you go:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/envi ... g-climate/

These Arctic glaciers are smaller than ever before in human history
On Baffin Island, "unprecedented" summer warmth over the last century is shrinking its glaciers.

https://www.livescience.com/64602-arcti ... hotos.html

End of the Ice
At the boundary of ice and rock on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, scientists from the University of Colorado Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research confer. The landscape exposed as the ice caps on Baffin Island shrink has likely not seen the sun for 40,000 years — and in fact, may have been covered with ice for as many as 120,000 years before global warming changed everything.


https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/ ... er2019.pdf

Not that all the ice is history:

https://notrickszone.com/2019/07/19/201 ... -50-years/

Our German skeptic friend Snowfan here keeps us up to date on the latest ODEN “Ship of Fools” attempt to travel across an Arctic that is supposed to be ice-free by now.
The incentive to cross the Arctic passages in the summer is huge. Doing so would mean at least a week of fame with the media blaring out your name along with grossly hyped headlines of an Arctic ice meltdown due to global warming. One of these years, a ship might get lucky and manage to get through the Northwest Passages.


But then the trend is clear.
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 21:05:57

Wow, that's quite a graph!
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Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 01 Aug 2019, 03:40:43

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/6/eaav9396

Yes indeed, almost 60% melt and rising...….today to the max.

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/green ... ive-chart/

Still current melt below a million sq.km, below record 2012.

Abstract
The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. Current ice margin recession is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the interior. We pair an outlet glacier–resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea level over the next millennium. We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45% of total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, whereas uncertainties in calving and frontal melt play a minor role. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.


So we are down to one millennium instead of millennia, many or more than 2, a couple.
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Re: The 2019 Greenland Thread

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 01 Aug 2019, 11:29:03

Still Warm....


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