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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 17:00:53

Yoshua wrote:The sanctions imposed on Iranian and Venezuelan oil is then only about blocking their oil as the inventories are filled to rim.
Have you even looked at what is going on in Venezuela? Their oil production is falling like a rock.

While analysts were busy calculating how much Iranian oil will come off the market with the U.S. sanctions and whether Saudi Arabia and Russia are offsetting losses, crude oil production in Venezuela “is in free fall” and could soon sink to below 1 million bpd.

Venezuela’s oil production has been in free fall for two years. Outside of war-induced outages, Venezuela is suffering the worst loss of oil production in history amid an unprecedented economic collapse, years of mismanagement and underinvestment in the oil industry, an aggravating humanitarian crisis, and a leader who is hell-bent on clinging to power. Venezuela’s oil production plunged by 42,000 bpd from August to average just 1.197 million bpd in September. This compares to an average 2.154 million bpd for 2016 and 1.911 million bpd for 2017.
IEA: Venezuela’s Oil Production Is In Free Fall

Summary
Venezuela oil production has plummeted.

Venezuela Oil Production
The following graph illustrates that the oil production in the distressed country has rapidly declined since late 2015, and has fallen off the cliff two years later:
Image
In the last nine months, Venezuela's oil production has dropped from 1.9 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d, and initial reports indicate that it dipped even further in June: Venezuela’s crude production dropped below 1.3 mb/d in June, its lowest monthly production level in 69 years.

The data shows that the precipitous drop in Venezuela's oil production has played a key role in the oil price surge, which started around the same time in early 2016. Further, if Venezuela's oil production had continued at the 2.3 mb/d level throughout the 30-month period from late 2015 to May 2018, with all else equal, then the closely watched OECD commercial oil inventories would be 350 million barrels to 400 million barrels higher than where they are today. Interestingly, that is the exact difference between where OECD commercial oil inventories are today versus where they peaked in 2016. Cool stuff, huh?
Venezuela: The Key To Oil Prices
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 18:14:37

You can't produce API 6° to 16° oil without a lot of diluent. US LTO suppliers began cutting Venezuela off because they weren't paying their bills. The sanctions came later. A 32% decline in 9 months means someone shut off the pumps. Maybe they didn't pay the power bill either? Venezuelan heavy has been estimated at 8 times the extraction cost of Saudi Light. Venezuelan production is an industry that produces a lot of cash, and very little profit. Maduro should stick to what he knows best -- running drugs.

Venezuela is stuck with high production cost oil, poor management, and a spend thrift ex cab driver turned dictator. The next time that the lights go out in the county, Maduro could blame the Albanians. They didn't get paid either. As to the UN's delegate that inspected the country and found no humanitarian crisis then why has so much of Venezuela moved to Columbia. Better weather?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 19:49:32

Bankrupt Canada is going Venezuela. -ism problem, requires right Mafia with fake money. Will recover sometime in future.

The Canadian National Energy Board is out with their latest Crude oil production data with projection through December 2019. They are expecting a huge hit in production starting in January, down by 0ver 550,000 bpd by May 2019 and not recovering until late summer.

Bankrupt Ireland net electricity output has reached a record Jan low
Its only an Apocalypse. Whats the big fuss?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 20:37:16

You can't produce API 6° to 16° oil without a lot of diluent.


Tell that to Colombia who has been producing oil of that gravity for many years. You can produce oil of any gravity as long as the viscosity is low enough. You need to be reminded that the only reason in North America that heavy oil is mixed with light oil (not diluent you idiot, which is specifically meant to apply to pipeline additions as you have been told numerous times) is the refineries are set up for a specific blend that maximizes the ability to get at the deep cuts. And you also need to inform yourself about cracking refineries, which were specifically designed to deal with heavier oils. There are a number of them around and Alberta is looking at building a couple more.

 Venezuelan heavy has been estimated at 8 times the extraction cost of Saudi Light.


What sort of stupid comment is that? It is not much different than saying gold is worth a hundred more times than lead. It is meaningless, everyone has known that since day one and has dealt with it. It costs more, and companies are willing to pay that to get it out of the ground and sell it at a profit. What is the problem?

Venezuelan production is an industry that produces a lot of cash, and very little profit. 


Again from the one person on this forum who doesn’t understand economics or how to read a financial report. When oil was at the high when Venezuela’s reserves got upgraded they were making somewhere in the range of $30 - $40 per bbl netback. Now, of course, at the lower prices they have problems but it isn’t to do with the oil grade as Alberta is capable of still producing down to low prices and making a profit (it is the same gravity and viscosity as much of the Orinoco). Venezuela made a ton of profit at high oil prices, unfortunately Chavez and his successor spent it all on social programs that would support them at the voting booths rather than reinvesting in the oilfields. Hence the current problem.

Venezuela is stuck with high production cost oil, poor management, and a spend thrift ex cab driver turned dictator.
 

This is all true but the fact is the high production costs can be offset by better oil and gas management. Chavez made sure that would not happen and his accolade just seems to be worse. It is interesting to note that Chavez was poor when he came into power but apparently was a billionaire when he passed. And I expect that is what the current man in power is anticipating. Apparently Dissident is one of the people on this board who supports that outcome. :roll:

Bankrupt Canada is going Venezuela. -ism problem, requires right Mafia with fake money. Will recover sometime in future.


Most of the time I ignore you but this is just the dumbest thing you have pretty much said in a long time (and that is saying a lot). How is Canada bankrupt…please show us the numbers (assuming you can actually count). I suggest you either you quit ingesting whatever it is you are when you post or alternatively if you are “drug free” you should take a visit to the closest mental health facility as you are now babbling nonsense. Your keyboard will thank you for being suddenly saliva free. :roll:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 04:14:15

Missing barrels

Once is an accident. Twice is a freak accident. But on the third time it's a conspiracy.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 06:07:34

Yoshua wrote:Missing barrels

Once is an accident. Twice is a freak accident. But on the third time it's a conspiracy.
What once, twice, three times? Can you not read? That item has been there continuously since the 1970s. Even the guy calling attention to this line item doesn't think it's a conspiracy. Just you Yoshua.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 06:24:30

rockdoc123 wrote: How is Canada bankrupt…please show us the numbers (assuming you can actually count).


Well you might be more inclined to believe that if you lived in Ontario as I do! Perhaps not bankrupt yet but our provincial government is resolutely headed in that direction.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 07:04:20

yellowcanoe wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote: How is Canada bankrupt…please show us the numbers (assuming you can actually count).


Well you might be more inclined to believe that if you lived in Ontario as I do! Perhaps not bankrupt yet but our provincial government is resolutely headed in that direction.

Same with my native city of NY.
Lots of rumours of bankruptcy
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 08:30:20

Did New York find out it can not infinitely tax its rich citizens before they leave enmasse?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 08:38:04

Cog wrote:Did New York find out it can not infinitely tax its rich citizens before they leave enmasse?

Well as a matter of fact, NY is becoming exclusively a city of rich and poor. No in between. Taxes, debt, high property values and high prices in general seem all to be culprits in this phenomenon. 8O
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 09:22:44

Well you might be more inclined to believe that if you lived in Ontario as I do! Perhaps not bankrupt yet but our provincial government is resolutely headed in that direction.


At least you aren't alone; the entire world is now bankrupt. The world has a debt load of $247 trillion, and a GDP of $81 trillion. It is now spending 14% of its GDP just to service its debt, and since we have reached Peak those debt servicing costs are going to be increasing significantly, and rapidly. GDP is going to go down with petroleum production, but the debt load is going to keep going right on up!

The industry has been declaring for years that all kinds of amazing finds were at hand to stem the decline. We were told about the vast stores of arctic oil to be extracted, about the bitumen, the ultra deep water, and the Shale, but in spite of all those fabulous reserves, supposedly ready for the taking, the decline in existing production is now greater than the oil being brought on line to replace it. They just keep spreading their line of bullshit further and further, and failed to mention that most of the world's liquid hydrocarbons are no more valuable than a puddle of goo.

PTB hasn't responded; there has been no announcement of a Plan B. Their plan B solution may be simply to just allow all the eaters to die off. But if eating, keeping the lights on, and having a roof over your head is important devising your own Plan B is likely to be superior to the promises of riches hidden under the feet of some polar bear.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 18:32:12

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 17 Mar 2019, 08:04:27

So Debt is a problem afterall. https://business.financialpost.com/news ... ntral-bank


Because they are still trying to count barrels, rather than oil's actual contribution, which is energy, they still haven't realized that oil has a leverage of 57:1 in the economy. Leverage works both ways; going up, and going down. We are now on the down side. 7.4 billion people relying on the same algorithm that doesn't work is likely to not work out very well?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Sun 17 Mar 2019, 09:17:41

Shorty and his group still think oil temperature in the ground matters. How sad they really don't understand work and energy.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 17 Mar 2019, 11:27:02

At the OPEC meeting the Saudis are saying that despite the fall in Iranian and Venezuelan oil production and OPEC + cuts there is still a inventory build up and they are nowhere near fundamentals at this point.

Well...auto sales are collapsing and gasoline spreads are negative...global trade is tanking and shipping rates are below break even points...global manufacturing is tanking and commodity prices are about to break down to the down side...
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Sun 17 Mar 2019, 11:47:14

Uh no they are aren't. What the Saudi's do understand is that the world is awash in cheap oil and want the price higher by cutting production. Its that whole supply/demand thing that ETP'ers can't wrap their brains around. But stick around kiddo, maybe in a couple of decades you can be educated.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 17 Mar 2019, 15:42:48

At the OPEC meeting the Saudis are saying that despite the fall in Iranian and Venezuelan oil production and OPEC + cuts there is still an inventory build up and they are nowhere near fundamentals at this point.


The Saudi need almost $90/ barrel to balance their budget; most of the Middle East is in a similiar position. We are in the rock or a hard part place. We are in a price range where the price can't go up because the economy couldn't survive if it did, and the producers can't keep producing if it doesn't. Economies are rolling over everywhere, and the world is armed to teeth. We are at Peak. and everyone is set on a hair trigger. There is no way that the present situation can persist without blowing up somewhere.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 18 Mar 2019, 03:48:38

The Saudis are obviously very worried about another oil price collapse.

Boeing is worried about EROEI. They decided to build an energy efficient plane. The engines were so large that they had to be moved forward to be able to lift off. Now they had an aerodynamic problem which they tried to solve with software.

Today the 737 is grounded and has turned into an energy efficiency disaster.

We will fail.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 18 Mar 2019, 07:10:02

Shorty and his group still think oil temperature in the ground matters.


Δs = m*c*ln(T2/T1)

When trying to communicate with illiterate neanderthals who still believe in rain dances to control the weather a little is likely to be lost in translation. Unfortunately they are the ones who would still be delighted to listen to the screams of burning witches. Society's failure is that it left about half of its population in the Dark Ages when it advanced into the 21'st century.

Boeing is worried about EROEI.


Its engineers are worried. Its management of MBA trained wizards are worried about next quarter's P&L. The dead they are leaving behind aren't worried about anything!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 18 Mar 2019, 08:27:02

This is a comment nade by someone at Peakoilbarrel. "
"When we are down to fracturing rocks and drilling tens of thousands of horizontal wells that produce tiny streams of oil that decline by 70% in just three years we should instinctively know that we are reaching the bottom of the proverbial barrel, literally. Amazing how most people think just the opposite."
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