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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 02 Apr 2019, 19:03:49

pstarr wrote:Huge News: The Ghawar Is In Decline!

Peak oil is no longer now. It is then.


I see Chris Martenson's gotta eat.

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"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 02 Apr 2019, 19:08:12

pstarr wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
pstarr wrote:Peak oil 2018

So what happens next? Lets see your timeline of events to unfold

Chaos, death and destruction. Not necessarily in that order


Living stereotypes. So predictable.
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"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 02 Apr 2019, 20:28:15

People are on a PO website and don’t believe in PO? Hmm, pretty odd.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 01:01:07

The money has to go somewhere. The graph that short posted of S&P verse 10 year yield, seems to indicate that the money is going into stocks. So we might not see a crash for a while in stock prices if there is nowhere else for the money to flow to.

I used to think that the stock market was an indicator of the state of the economy, but the longer this thread goes on the more distorted it seems as investors try to place money in the best place. So the stock market seems to have a huge component responding positively to low interest rates (a function of a weak economy) that overrides other economic signals. Is there a better indicator to watch that reflects the overall economy?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 01:39:39

EdwinSm wrote:The money has to go somewhere. The graph that short posted of S&P verse 10 year yield, seems to indicate that the money is going into stocks. So we might not see a crash for a while in stock prices if there is nowhere else for the money to flow to.

I used to think that the stock market was an indicator of the state of the economy, but the longer this thread goes on the more distorted it seems as investors try to place money in the best place. So the stock market seems to have a huge component responding positively to low interest rates (a function of a weak economy) that overrides other economic signals. Is there a better indicator to watch that reflects the overall economy?

Consider that investors are looking at after tax profits and after inflation has been considered. A zero interest rate bond would not keep up with inflation so is pretty useless while stocks still have quite a earnings potential even after the taxes and inflation is accounted for. And there is a world of difference between the best and the worst stocks out there. Presently US T bond rates are running about 2.75% with inflation running about 2.2 so they are making a safe half a percent. The DOW on the other hand is up 225% over the last ten years and many of those stocks have paid dividends to the stock holders as well.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby marmico » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 03:21:56

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 03:57:36

Thanks Marmico, those links are very intersting :)

I noticed that the first two indicators (CFNIA and ADS) are now both negative, but not in the territory that previously indicated recession (eg in 2008). I also noticed that occasionally the CFNAI indicator had a massive collapse outside of recession, but most times its collapse fitted with a recession but as a trailing, not leading, indicator [around 50 year's data in graph here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

However, both have been basically flat since coming out of the last recession, so they are showing little improvement in the last ten years, which seems to give lie to some of the more rose-tinted views expressed here. :twisted:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 09:26:15

ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!


So I'll leave you in your ignorance. The world has burned through 86% of its extractable resource, decline in existing fields is greater than new oil can be brought on line, and the world has entered a new nuclear arms race. If there is a war to come after this one, "it will be fought with sticks and stones!" V. Putin

The monkey brains will revel in their trivia as horrors beyond imagination descend upon their heads. The machines will go silent, as the gentle breezes carry the stench of death.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby marmico » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 10:46:14

its collapse fitted with a recession but as a trailing, not leading, indicator


For a leading indicator published monthly, see The Conference Board LEI.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 11:04:10

While I'm not agreeing with the short term doom scenario, I am not saying that doom isn't lurking. I feel I have to say this because I said, when oil had dropped, that it was on its way back to $60. I also said it was probably going to spike to $65 off and on. Recently, it's seen $62. The doom that's being discussed here is in light of peak oil. There's also a component of excessive debt involved.

Back when we were not yet in the crisis of the last decade, I used to think, and say occasionally here, that the US shouldn't exploit its shale reserves simply because it could, but should hold them as a strategic asset for the end game of oil. Well, I don't make policy. I said that because I could see from what I was reading that shale had a high rate of decline. Eventually, it was going to get caught in a situation where it took more investment to extract what remained than the value of what remained could give back, unless it was an end game scenario. In that case, the last of it would be valuable enough to consider. I don't know anything about where the shale reserve situation is right now. I'm not saying it has reached that point where it would cost more to get what remains than the value of it. I'm just lamenting the lack of any kind of coherent policy that could direct such a thing.

That said, when you look at what is happening in the automobile industry, with its concentration on developing electric automobiles, you can definitely tell that things are changing. Automakers are not just changing over to those product lines that sell, and cutting those which don't, but they are also committing to going electric. Cars meant for the American market may be getting bigger on average, but four wheel drive is also becoming all wheel drive and many of those larger vehicles are becoming hybrids. So, as far as transportation goes, there has been a development that makes the timing of shale extraction seem prescient.

Now, the Saudis have had to release more information regarding their reserve status. They aren't going to run out of oil any time soon, but neither can they invent much through number fudging anymore to take them past about 2060. That's only 40 years. When you think about everything that has to take place in order for an electric transportation future to succeed, the infrastructure buildout that has to happen, that's not very long. We might have been able to put off the shale extraction, but it was coming soon. That's why I'm saying that instead of preaching doom people ought to consider investing in things like lithium. Oil isn't going away any time soon because the primary means to recharge batteries when we don't have a sufficient infrastructure is going to be through the fuel tank. It's going to take a while to build something that can charge everybody's vehicle as and when. I'm sure there will be a lot of temptation to stop short of what must be done. There is no shortage of thought in the US that hates the idea of paying for something like that. So, it could get stretched out well into danger territory. As far as a big market crash endangering everything goes, that is more likely, I think, to be a product of that doubt than of economics. If you don't see what has to happen, it's very possible to fall back upon the sort of lack of commitment that would see investment not getting into the right hands at the right time. I think we are right at that point where if we fail to believe we can do this, we won't.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 11:05:48

shortonoil wrote: and the world has entered a new nuclear arms race. If there is a war to come after this one, "it will be fought with sticks and stones!" V. Putin


You are a real Einstein on that one. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:39:35

We promise not to steal your lunch money humidor if you will stay on topic. :)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby derhundistlos » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:40:28

shortonoil-

They like to form gangs to bring down their common enemies. You have every right to be here and post often.

For me, it's a badge of courage to make the official enemies list.

Hang tough/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:46:37

derhundistlos wrote:shortonoil-

They like to form gangs to bring down their common enemies. You have every right to be here and post often.

For me, it's a badge of courage to make the official enemies list.

Hang tough/

So discussions aren't allowed, if you don't like the messenger? Then go away. Since when is discussing data (or lack thereof) "bringing down a common enemy"?

If you take medication for paranoia, I think you missed a dose, BTW.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:50:02, edited 2 times in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:47:47

derhundistlos wrote:shortonoil-

They like to form gangs to bring down their common enemies. You have every right to be here and post often.

For me, it's a badge of courage to make the official enemies list.

Hang tough/


You act as if anyone cares you are here, other than the comedy value of you floundering around the forum. Drama Queens are a dime a dozen here.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 05:15:28

Move the thread back on topic. And lay off the personal attacks.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 07:38:41

US jobless claims fall to 49 year low. 196,000 jobs added in March. Unemployment rate stays at 3.8% near the lowest level in 50 years.

Not seeing this crash.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 09:55:03

shortonoil wrote:The world has burned through 86% of its extractable resource, decline in existing fields is greater than new oil can be brought on line


If the situation is that severe, then oil prices will GO UP, not down. So nothing you're saying contradicts me bashing your failed bet that oil prices would go DOWN rather than UP.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 09:57:40

derhundistlos wrote:I am the only one here who has the guts to stand up to the numerous right-wing demagogues


No, but try to pick the appropriate time and place for it.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Pops » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 10:36:04

evilgenius wrote:While I'm not agreeing with the short term doom scenario, I am not saying that doom isn't lurking.


The market is way above the mean PE range since 1990. That would seem to indicate the opposite of doom, high tides and blue skies in fact.

Image


Except that isn't how things work. In that same time period the bottom 3/5s has barely stayed afloat

Image


The great trickle down lie is that a booming stock market is the tide that lifts all boats.

A stock market crash has nothing to do with doom.
In fact, for the bottom 50%, it's just the opposite.

Image

[cue 1% apologists]
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The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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