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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Pops » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 18:46:33

derhundistlos wrote:Lastly, why do you present yourself as an independent voter when you are a staunch Trump supporter and Republican?

Independence is an affectation. I actually think it shows folks are cowed by political correctness, are actually embarrassed by the shenanigans of the party they always vote for or maybe just afraid of the rolling pin.

There are vanishingly few actual swing voters, that is, people who vote "issues not party." The swing vote is just the block most enraged and least disaffected in any particular cycle. The parties have pretty well sorted themselves along geographic lines, no surprise as economically and socially we are very well differentiated by population density or whatever the term.

I think the only question left is will the Haves continue to control both parties? trump was upfront about that at least: he gave money to both parties so when he wanted something they kiss his ass. Not sure why one would vote for the guy who crowed about being the king of a rigged system, but whatever. We have an understanding: he doesn't pretend he represents me and I don't either.

Anyway, until Bernie to an extent but really Lizzy's pledgeto stay away from PACs and big money fundraisers, both parties were tools of the rich—that was implicit in Bill Clinton's Third Way that set gingrich off. Will the rural poor and suburban working class continue to support corporatocracy and the Waltons because maybe they'll win the lotto one day, will they continue to cling to their guns n bibles? Will urbaites and their poor brown nannies continue to support candidates like Bill, Obama, HRC and Uncle Joe from the land of Ursry? I don't know but I like the idea of Ds not taking corporate bribes.

Bloomberg and the coffee guy and the impeachNOW guy are out because, well, they are billionaires, and smart enough to not throw their money away in an election about inequality — I assume that's how they got a bunch of it. Likely Uncle Joe won't run because although his "raised in a bar" (in the state of Usury) schtick is taylor made as the anti-trump weapon, I think Ds may be getting tired of the "good people on both sides" of the labor/management divide. Ditto the rest of the third way middle and R-lite candidates like Amy and Tulsi and whomever else.

I could be wrong, maybe transvestite bathroom passes are again the hot topic; reparations, or Betos hot idea of "Tear down that wall! LOL, he watched the wrong newsreel I think. Kamla, Cory, Gillibrand, etc on the social war side have no problem taking the big bucks from TPTB, we'll see.

I think this will be an even more defining cycle than '16.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 18:56:53

Biden is the only serious challenger to Trump. America is not quite ready for socialism, which is what all the other Dems are running on.

Since the Dems spent the last two years placing their bets on the Mueller report leading to Trump's impeachment, they really aren't offering voters anything except Transgender bathrooms and more racial politics.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 19:49:45

Boy, I flushed me a Republicon covey. They're pouring out of every nook and cranny spewing forth the same tired and discredited propaganda. Fortunately, the 2018 Midterms put a welcome stop to the constant bragging, hatred, and xenophobia.

Just to remind everyone how disastrous of an election this was for Trump and the Republicons:

There shouldn’t be much question about whether 2018 was a wave election. Of course, it was a wave. Democratic candidates received as many votes in 2018 (63 million) as the 63 million that President Trump received in 2016, when he won the Electoral College (but lost the popular vote). There isn’t any precedent for the opposition party at the midterm equaling the president’s vote total. The closest thing to an exception is 1970.

The Democratic "resistance” turned out voters in astonishing numbers, performing well in both traditional swing states in the Midwest — including the states (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) that essentially lost Hillary Clinton the presidential election in 2016 — and new-fangled swing states such as Arizona and Texas.

Turnout among young voters was high by the standards of a midterm, and voters aged 18 to 29 chose Democratic candidates by a record margin for the youth vote. The youth are the future and the youth want nothing to do with anything Republicon.

The Hispanic share of the electorate increased to 11 percent from 8 percent in the previous midterm.

The Cons increased their Senate majority by 2 seats, big deal. It's because Republican voters are concentrated in rural, agrarian states, the GOP had a big advantage in the Senate. Nevertheless, Democrats managed to outperform how their states leaned politically in almost every single race — including in the 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that President Trump won in 2016. And there were four contests where Democratic incumbents fared 20 points or better than their state’s political baseline — and three of them won. This helped Democrats hold onto seats in two heavily Republican states — West Virginia and Montana.

About the future. Problem No. 1 is the nation's youth are solidly Democratic and with every passing day there are fewer Republicon voters. #2 is that Republicans lost among swing voters: Independent voters went for Democrats by a 12-point margin, and voters who voted for a third-party candidate in 2016 went to Democrats by 13 points. Problem No. 3, The Republicon base is smaller than the Democratic one and the differential will only continue to grow as old Republicon voters die-off.

This year’s results serve as a warning to Trump in one important sense: His base alone will not be near enough to win a second term.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 19:57:26

I forgot to add that young voters chose the Democrats over the Republicons by an astonishing 35 points. To say America's youth are solidly Democratic voters is too much of an understatement, which is why the Democratic base and the Democratic/Republicon base differential continue to grow with each passing day.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 20:14:08

Hillary was predicted to win by every poll leading up to the election. How did that turn out?

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Obama lost far more House seats in his first midterm than Trump did. Not exactly the blue wave being predicted. But for the next two years at least conservative judges are being appointed to the federal courts. That will pay off for many years to come.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 20:28:28

"If you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart; if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.”

The green new deal will make a lot of forty year old Democrats into conservatives. If not that the bill for universal medicare will.
As to the Republican losses in 2018 one only has to look as far as Obama's first mid term election so see a bigger shellacking.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 23:57:25

Forgive the oversight regarding 2018 governorship and state legislative races. Following is a brief synopsis:

Democrats defended every governorship they had controlled prior to the election and picked up seven new governorships.

Also at the state level, the good guys defeated 361 Republicon incumbents, and six legislative chambers flipped from Con to Dem.

More good news..... the Connecticut Senate went from being evenly divided to a Democratic majority. Democrats broke Republicon legislative supermajorities in North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and gained a legislative supermajority in both houses of the California, Illinois and Oregon legislatures.

Democrats gained a trifecta in Colorado, Illinois, Connecticut, Maine, New Mexico, New York, and Nevada as well as in Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Cons lost trifectas in Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire.

The Dear Leader claimed before the election that the Midterms would be a referendum on him, and brother was it. Funny, never heard this frequent declaration after election night.

Across the board, this was a big win for the people as sanity begins its return to Washington. The 2018 Midterms serve as the coming attraction with the best to come in less than two years. When I saw the turnout at my local precinct, I knew this would be a huge W for the good guys.

Trump was right about one thing. 2018 witnessed one of the largest cases of election fraud in the past 50 years. The Cons did a sloppy job stuffing ballot boxes in North Carolina, but they get an "E" for effort- LOL.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby derhundistlos » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 03:08:10

For those interested in learning about the most sickening, perverse, and destructive scandal ever to disgrace American politics, I suggest you go to YouTube and watch the documentary, jointly produced by British ITN and the Discovery Chanel, titled, “Conspiracy of Silence”. The documentary is about how for years the boys at Boys’ Town were raped and sodomized by numerous national Republican politicians and wealthy Republican donors.

In advance of Republican fundraisers in Washington, DC, the nicest looking teenage boys were pre-selected (referred to as "Toy Boys") from the Boys' Town "stable", then flown by private plane to Washington where they would be held in a Republican safe house. Upon arrival, the boys would be doped up to make them more pliable once their "dates" arrived.

Upon the conclusion of a formal Washington soiree, Republican politicians and big money donors would head over to the safe house, rendezvous with their pre-selected boy of preference, and you can use your sickest imagination to appreciate what happened next. Oh, the boys were rewarded for delivering the goods- they were treated to a late night behind the scenes tour of the Reagan Whitehouse.

In the documentary, you will hear former Republican Nebraska State Senator and Chairman of the Boys' Town State Investigative Committee, Mr. Loran Schmit, state that the pedophilia reached the highest levels of the Republican Party. Despite tremendous pressure from the Reagan Whitehouse and RNC to bury the scandal, Senator Schmit refused to be intimidated. The senator was so shocked and disgusted by the findings of the committee that he permanently resigned from the Republican party and returned to farming. God bless you, Senator Schmit, for your courage and integrity.

The Republican National Committee attempted to whitewash the Boys’ Town scandal by purchasing the documentary’s publication rights for a monumental sum; fortunately, a few copies were leaked before the evidence could be destroyed.

Sadly, few people are aware of the Boys’ Town tragedy, which is why I am doing everything possible to make the public aware of the facts.
Here is the YouTube address for the documentary, “Conspiracy of Silence” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DquLnRycZms
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 03:30:20

A democrat throwing stones at Republicans for perverted sexual behavior? No irony there.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 03:40:33

Looking into what you are claiming I find this.
Why waste our time with discredited hoaxes?
State and federal investigations

The Nebraska State Foster Care Review Board submitted the results of a two-year investigation into the alleged physical and sexual abuse of foster children to the Executive Board of the Nebraska Legislature, who were investigating reports of child sexual abuse linked to the credit union. After investigation, a grand jury in Douglas County, where Omaha, Nebraska is situated, determined the abuse allegations were baseless, describing them as a "carefully crafted hoax" and indicting two of the original accusers on perjury charges.[1] The grand jury suspected that the false stories originated from a fired employee of Boys Town, who might have "fueled the fire of rumor and innuendo" because of personal grudges.[1] A federal grand jury also concluded that the abuse allegations were unfounded and indicted 21-year-old Alisha Owen, an alleged victim, on eight counts of perjury. Owen served 4-1/2 years in prison.[6] Separately, the federal grand jury indicted multiple officers of the credit union for embezzlement of funds, including King.[1][2]
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 04:33:07

I suspect the Mueller report has created a great amount of angst within the leftie community. They had pinned everything on collusion and obstruction only to get a nothing burger. In some ways this is even better than election night, Any trust in the mainstream press is forever tainted by this two year lie that they propagated.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 05:15:51

Yes and the useful idiots of the MSM keep on unwittingly doing the bidding of Putin trying to disrupt and bring down the US government.
https://www.arcamax.com/politics/editor ... evekelley/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 06:54:11

LOL Thanks VT


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 06:56:31

The correlation coefficient of the EIA and World Bank data plotted in chart139a is R2 = 0.99. The last 6 points, which are denoted as the "2012 - 2016 anomaly", indicate a change in that relationship with the probability of occurrence of more than 6 standard deviations from the mean (more than 1 in a million chance). GDP is changing its relationship to petroleum, which is to be expected as we approach the end of the oil age. Without the standard it provided, from which currencies can be set: the monetary system will continue to fail as a true pricing mechanism for trade and distribution. At which point the system will fail. Depending on the difference between the theoretical vs actual waste heat generation of the Petroleum Production System that will occur sometime between 2023 and 2030. The world's present massive debt structure almost assures that the failure of the monetary system will be catastrophic when it occurs.

Adoption of a new monetary system will then be necessary, and gold will most likely be adopted to fulfill that roll. Gold's historical significance as a currency of exchange will make it the overwhelming standard of choice. Adoption of a new global gold standard will re-denominate the present US dollar to approximately 4 cents on the present dollar. Other currencies will do much worse. Standards of living will fall to reflect petroleum's ability to power the economy.

This scenario is now playing out across the world, as is seen in nations like Venezuela, Turkey, Iran, Argentina, and many other African and central Asian nations were the value of their currencies are, or rapidly approaching zero. What the social and geopolitical implications will be is unknown.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 07:14:54

derhundistlos wrote:About the future. Problem No. 1 is the nation's youth are solidly Democratic and with every passing day there are fewer Republicon voters.
You are assuming these young idealistic voters will stay that way as as they age. However this is not necessarily the case. People tend to become more conservative with age. Meanwhile we as a population are getting older. The fact that the average age of voters is getting older with each passing year should be a cause of concern for democrats as these older voters tend to be more conservative.

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How Do Political Views Change With Age?
There is evidence that voting preferences and political views change with age. Of course, this is a broad stroke statement and many people buck any observable trends. Some people will form defined political beliefs at a young age and will stick with those beliefs throughout their life. Still, many people’s beliefs change as the years pass by. Many argue that people grow more conservative with age.

It would make sense for our political views and voting habits to change with age. After all, wants and needs will change as we age. Priorities for younger people versus older people are often very different. Further, experience is a learning opportunity. Given this, it would make sense for our political views to evolve as our needs change and our experience informs our beliefs.

Consider the priorities of younger voters. Free or affordable college education will be more beneficial for younger people than older ones. Younger people generally earn less money than older workers. As such, increased taxes on high-income earners will not impact them as heavily.

On the flip side, older voters have already secured many of those benefits, such as affordable college. At the same time, they are generally earning more money. It’s more favorable for older workers to have lower taxes, even if it means cutting some social benefits, such as affordable college tuition.

Older Individuals Have Supported Conservative Politicians In Recent Years
There’s an old saying, “if you’re young and not a Democrat, you’re heartless. If you grow up and you’re not a Republican, you’re stupid.” This view isn’t necessarily correct, but it does reflect the belief that as people age, they tend to vote more conservatively. This is backed up by cold, hard data.

Are older people simply more experienced, thus explaining why they are more conservative? This is a frequent argument, but its veracity remains uncertain. A substantial review of 92 different scientific studies suggests that one reason we grow more conservative as we age is a lack of intellectual curiosity. As we grow older, it’s easier to become set in our beliefs and to stop challenging our own views. This could lead to a more conservative outlook.

Other research suggests that as we age, our ability to process information slows down. Information processing peaks in our mid-twenties, and then starts to decline by our 40’s. This doesn’t mean older people are less intelligent. In fact, more experience often means older people are both more knowledgeable, and more likely to rely on that knowledge. However, it does suggest that older people will be less open to and even less capable of digesting new information and changing circumstances.

Do Older People Stick With The Social Views Of Their Times?
A liberal from the 1950’s would likely seem quite conservative by today’s standards. Up until the 1960’s, gay people were prosecuted under the letter of the law. Many adults did not approval of gay relationships, let alone gay marriage. Now, a majority of adults support gay sex marriage. In fact, nearly 75% of millennials support same-marriage. However, only 41% of the silent generation (born 1928-45) and 56% of baby boomers (1946-64) support gay marriage.

Conservative Parties tend to conserve older social norms. These conservative views are more likely to be in-line with older voters. This helps explain why older voters are more likely to vote conservative. At the end of the day, the conservative social views of conservative parties are more likely to be in line with the social preferences of older voters.

There does appear to be some evidence that people grow more conservative as they age. However, other evidence suggests that each generation’s experience is different. Still, other evidence suggests that voting preferences can swing from election to election. In this case, it might be the performance of individual politicians that drive voter habits.

Regardless of the cause, the most recent elections have suggested that older voters are increasingly more likely to vote conservative.
How Do Political Views Change With Age?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 07:45:53

Cog wrote:Biden is the only serious challenger to Trump. America is not quite ready for socialism, which is what all the other Dems are running on.

Since the Dems spent the last two years placing their bets on the Mueller report leading to Trump's impeachment, they really aren't offering voters anything except Transgender bathrooms and more racial politics.



And post birth abortion.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 08:16:52

When you are still in school civics (if they teach it at all) is that subject you droned through thinking about the mini skirted babe two desks over, and taxes were something your parents paid and you gave not a single thought to . It is comical and instructive to watch a teenager open their first real paycheck and see for the first time the percentages deducted for social security, medicare and state and federal income tax. It is a lesson learned and never forgotten.
Life teaches conservatism one bill at a time and the knowledge is cumulative.
A Conservative was once defined as "a liberal that had been mugged" which is true and often the mugger is congress or the state legislature.
"mugger" don't hear that term much any more. A 70's thing it seems but I don't know the term that now replaces it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 08:54:14

So this has devolved from stock market crash to petty partisan politics. How sad.
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ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 09:37:15

asg70 wrote:So this has devolved from stock market crash to petty partisan politics. How sad.

Well the stock market has "crashed" all the way up to 26150 (DOW) so the original point of this thread is nonsense and the thread has evolved to a more current topic that might eventually effect the market far more then the predictions of crashes here.
Have to keep the moderators busy sorting us all out don't you know. We wouldn't want them to feel un needed.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 13:19:53

shortonoil wrote:The correlation coefficient of the EIA and World Bank data plotted in chart139a is R2 = 0.99.

And the correlation of your predictions re oil and the economy to anything approaching reality is about 1%.

If you had ANY credibility, your yammering would be worth listening to. But you don't.

Pay your debt and get a clue, or move on.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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