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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 21:06:33

Not too surprising, when you think about it:

Global warming has increased global economic inequality


Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke

PNAS May 14, 2019 116 (20) 9808-9813; first published April 22, 2019 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1816020116

"...poorer countries or individuals are more negatively affected by a changing climate, either because they lack the resources for climate protection (3) or because they tend to reside in warmer regions where additional warming would be detrimental to both productivity and health."
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 16:53:45

The linked reference uses improved modeling of the stratospheric chemistry-climate interactions in the hot climate conditions of the Eocene and recommends that such improved modeling of the stratospheric chemistry be included in climate models projecting the future. What is important to remember is that current consensus climate model projections of the future do not accurately account for stratosphere-climate interactions under hot climate conditions; which increases our collective climate risks:

Szopa, S., Thiéblemont, R., Bekki, S., Botsyun, S., and Sepulchre, P.: Role of the stratospheric chemistry–climate interactions in the hot climate conditions of the Eocene, Clim. Past, 15, 1187-1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1187-2019, 2019.

https://www.clim-past.net/15/1187/2019/

The stratospheric ozone layer plays a key role in atmospheric thermal structure and circulation. Although stratospheric ozone distribution is sensitive to changes in trace gases concentrations and climate, the modifications of stratospheric ozone are not usually considered in climate studies at geological timescales. Here, we evaluate the potential role of stratospheric ozone chemistry in the case of the Eocene hot conditions. Using a chemistry–climate model, we show that the structure of the ozone layer is significantly different under these conditions (4×CO2 climate and high concentrations of tropospheric N2O and CH4). The total column ozone (TCO) remains more or less unchanged in the tropics whereas it is found to be enhanced at mid- and high latitudes. These ozone changes are related to the stratospheric cooling and an acceleration of stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation simulated under Eocene climate. As a consequence, the meridional distribution of the TCO appears to be modified, showing particularly pronounced midlatitude maxima and a steeper negative poleward gradient from these maxima. These anomalies are consistent with changes in the seasonal evolution of the polar vortex during winter, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, found to be mainly driven by seasonal changes in planetary wave activity and stratospheric wave-drag. Compared to a preindustrial atmospheric composition, the changes in local ozone concentration reach up to 40 % for zonal annual mean and affect temperature by a few kelvins in the middle stratosphere.
As inter-model differences in simulating deep-past temperatures are quite high, the consideration of atmospheric chemistry, which is computationally demanding in Earth system models, may seem superfluous. However, our results suggest that using stratospheric ozone calculated by the model (and hence more physically consistent with Eocene conditions) instead of the commonly specified preindustrial ozone distribution could change the simulated global surface air temperature by as much as 14 %. This error is of the same order as the effect of non-CO2 boundary conditions (topography, bathymetry, solar constant and vegetation). Moreover, the results highlight the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to hot climate conditions. Since the climate sensitivity to stratospheric ozone feedback largely differs between models, it must be better constrained not only for deep-past conditions but also for future climates.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dissident » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 20:28:03

Interesting results. The stratosphere does affect the lower troposphere circulation even though it is in the low mass "tail". The stratospheric polar vortex state affects surface pressure in the middle and high latitudes and the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 01GL014284

Even though the density of the atmosphere falls off exponentially with height, one cannot fob off the upper layers based on their total mass. The system is complex and includes Rossby wave reflection based on the zonal wind distribution the lower stratosphere above the tropopause. Quasi-stationary Rossby waves carry an enormous amount of energy (they are planetary in scale) and can either propagate into the stratosphere and be dissipated by thermal and mechanical damping (wave breaking) or get substantially reflected back into the troposphere. This is enough to change the storm tracks (baroclinic eddy propagation pathways) in the troposphere which is an in-your-face impact on weather.

This coupling between the low-density upper atmosphere and high-density lower atmosphere has impacted even weather forecasting. To properly simulation tropospheric synoptic scale features (e.g. baroclinic eddies) you need to put the lid no lower than 10 hPa or about 30 km. That is way above the tropopause. But even that is too low and modern forecast models have their lids at 0.1 hPa or about 60 km. If the lid is at 30 km the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation is too strong and that effects the state of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The reason the BD circulation is too strong is that Rossby waves cannot propagate higher and towards the equator (the tend to follow great arcs) and deposit their energy lower down and at higher latitudes. The Coriolis torque is how the waves induce a meridional diabatic (e.g. BD) circulation through the damping of stratospheric westerly winds.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 22:28:54

Thanks for that clarification, dis.

Meanwhile: Climate scientist calls for 'world war type mobilization' to combat climate change

Something like this might have worked if it started some 40 ago, if we had really headed Jimmy Carter's warnings. Or even perhaps some 30 years ago had we really headed Al Gore's warnings from his book Earth In Balance.

But now we are beyond even such heroics. We could reduce the severity of what is coming, perhaps. But we have now locked ourselves into truly horrific futures, no matter what we do.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 04 Jul 2019, 05:37:08

Doh,

This is probably true. But would horrific events were likely through other processes even without climate change.

This question always remains relevant; given this knowledge...What do we do?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 04 Jul 2019, 06:12:06

Newfie wrote:Doh,

This is probably true. But would horrific events were likely through other processes even without climate change.

This question always remains relevant; given this knowledge...What do we do?


Does it hurt yet?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 04 Jul 2019, 07:33:38

Only when I visualize the future.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 04 Jul 2019, 07:50:15

Newfie wrote:Only when I visualize the future.


The raw naked truth is that these upcoming consequences of overshoot are going to proceed with humans in just about the same way as most other species. The degree to which humans with technology and compassion can lessen the hurt is of course an open question still but I fear that the value of an individual human when there are so many billions of us simply wont amount to very much.

Out in nature during overshoot only the lucky and fittest get through the bottleneck. Within an overshot habitat there are often a few select areas where enough abundance remains for a remnant population to get through and then the cycle picks up again. Most species occupy habitat that includes optimal areas along with marginal areas. Marginal areas are the least able to handle external pressures and constraints.

If we apply this basic principal to humans then we do have to recognize that in civilization the abundant part of the habitat are the humans with money and power. They can hold on longer than the poor. WE are seeing this clearly unfold and it has accelerated in the last 20 years.

The vast majority of humans at the peak right now of consumption culture are going to slowly fall back to the historical norm of a small privileged controlling elite and a broad base of serf like peons. In other words, the poorest of the poor are those in marginal habitat and will be the first to perish. But for the wealthy out of sight out of mind.

When I asked the question Does it hurt Yet? For the elite and rich and wealthy they will put up the blinders on the growing disparity and their wealth will continue to insulate them from the hurt while the less fortunate will suffer first and since they have no real voice or advocates or lobbyists they will decline quietly in the night.

This will grind down through the decades and next century or two until we find that base carrying capacity once again.

This whole process does strangely mirror natural ecosystems, except the fittest in a natural ecosystem are those physically and mentally selected along with some luck to survive. In the case of civilization privilege and wealth is what is selected and gets you through and those individuals are not necessarily the best endowed with a balance of intellectual/emotional intelligence. In fact among the wealthy self serving social pathology can increase and prove to be adaptive during the correction of human overshoot. I think we have some good examples out there at the moment!

This is depressing to consider but it is raw and honest.

To preserve my mental health the only way for me to contemplate the dark chapter emerging for humanity is to focus on the rest of life on the planet that will be a beneficiary as Kudzu Ape grinds down through this miserable but necessary process of finding itself once again is some balanced place in the community of life on the planet.

You reap what you sow...... is a saying so very very pertinent for Kudzu Apes.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 04 Jul 2019, 20:18:31

" For the elite and rich and wealthy they will put up the blinders on the growing disparity and their wealth will continue to insulate them from the hurt while the less fortunate will suffer first and since they have no real voice or advocates or lobbyists they will decline quietly in the night."

Very well put.

This is already happening, of course. The top 20% globally already pretty much ignore the plight of the bottom 80%. And as things get worse, it is unlikely that the top 10%, 1% and on to ......1% will have any more compassion for the rest of us than we have for the majority below us now. I wish I were wrong.

I hope, with you, that the process unfolds in such a way that the harm we are doing is curtailed by our our own poisoning of our own nest fast enough that a significant part of the rest of the living community will have a chance to rebound. I just acknowledge that at this point such things are unknowable.

But things are already looking very bad in many places, and many people are indeed feeling the hurt...

Are parts of India becoming too hot for humans?

Intense heat waves have killed more than 100 people in India this summer and are predicted to worsen in coming years, creating a possible humanitarian crisis as large parts of the country potentially become too hot to be inhabitable.
Heat waves in India usually take place between March and July and abate once the monsoon rains arrive. But in recent years these hot spells have become more intense, more frequent and longer.
India is among the countries expected to be worst affected by the impacts of climate crisis, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) say that even if the world succeeds in cutting carbon emissions, limiting the predicted rise in average global temperatures [which...we won't], parts of India will become so hot they will test the limits of human survivability.

"The future of heat waves is looking worse even with significant mitigation of climate change, and much worse without mitigation," said Elfatih Eltahir, a professor of hydrology and climate at MIT...


...researchers found that the limits of survivability would be exceeded in a few locations in India's Chota Nagpur Plateau, in the northeast of the country, and Bangladesh.
And they would come close to being exceeded in most of South Asia, including the fertile Ganges River valley, India's northeast and eastern coast, northern Sri Lanka, and the Indus Valley of Pakistan.

Survivability was based on what is called "wet bulb temperature" -- a combined metric of humidity and the outside temperature.

When the wet bulb reaches 35°C it becomes impossible for humans to cool their bodies through sweating, hence it indicates the survival temperature for humans. A few hours of exposure to these wet bulb conditions leads to death, even for the fittest of humans....


A number of people on this forum first learned about wet bulb temperatures here from my posts, and many couldn't believe it. The term is now in the main stream media and will soon become a household word.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/03/asia/ind ... index.html
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 11:17:27

dohboi wrote:
I hope, with you, that the process unfolds in such a way that the harm we are doing is curtailed by our our own poisoning of our own nest fast enough that a significant part of the rest of the living community will have a chance to rebound. I just acknowledge that at this point such things are unknowable.


This wish does not come from misanthropic sentiments. It comes from this being the best of a set of bad choices. Overshoot is checkmate, painless solutions are by the very definition of overshoot impossible.

To cause so much damage and then somehow think we can solve the problem with no pain is actually a form of hubris.

We as a species deep in overshoot are not entitled to painless solutions. This should be obvious but try telling this to your neighbor or fellow human you meet on the street.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 Jul 2019, 15:03:00

"We as a species deep in overshoot are not entitled to painless solutions. This should be obvious but try telling this to your neighbor or fellow human you meet on the street."

Indeed!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 10:27:09

dohboi wrote:A number of people on this forum first learned about wet bulb temperatures here from my posts, and many couldn't believe it. The term is now in the main stream media and will soon become a household word.



That would be me.

I was skeptical when I first read your posts about wet bulb Ts and human survivability ......and I'm a climate doomer.

This is very bad news indeed. India was already just barely survivable and now add in killer heat waves. SHEEESH! I'm surprised there aren't 20 million people from India wading across the Rio Grande right now.

Thanks, D, as always.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 13:34:10

I'm humbled and honored to have been the one to introduce you to this topic. You have taught me much, as well.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 18:05:50

Plantagenet wrote:
dohboi wrote:A number of people on this forum first learned about wet bulb temperatures here from my posts, and many couldn't believe it. The term is now in the main stream media and will soon become a household word.



That would be me.

I was skeptical when I first read your posts about wet bulb Ts and human survivability ......and I'm a climate doomer.

This is very bad news indeed. India was already just barely survivable and now add in killer heat waves. SHEEESH! I'm surprised there aren't 20 million people from India wading across the Rio Grande right now.

Thanks, D, as always.

CHEERS!


The psychometric chart with the human comfort zone of wet bulb temperature, dry bulb temperature, relative humidity has been around for ages, so have the temperature/humidity limits of human survival. It’s the basis of HVAC design. And Indians are embracing air conditioning in droves now that they have more wealth and more coal fired power plants to provide electricity. Once more the “cause” is the “cure”, crisis averted by providing people with affordable power.

https://sites.google.com/site/hvacsyste ... parameters

The boundaries of survival are better established for long-term comfort. According to a 1958 NASA report, people can live indefinitely in environments that range between roughly 40 degrees F and 95 degrees F (4 and 35 degrees C), if the latter temperature occurs at no more than 50 percent relative humidity. The maximum temperature pushes upward when it's less humid, because lower water content in the air makes it easier to sweat, and thus, keep cool.

https://www.livescience.com/34128-limit ... vival.html

BEHROR, India (AFP) - Ratan Kumar once battled India's brutal summers with damp bedsheets and midnight baths. Now he is among millions upon millions of Indians using air-conditioning - helping make the world hotter still.

With India's air-conditioning market expected to explode from 30 million to a billion units by 2050, the world's second-most populous country could become the planet's top user of electricity for cooling.


https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south ... -explosion
Don't deny the peak!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 06 Jul 2019, 23:42:03

Thanks for that info, jaw.

Now this:

https://www.yesmagazine.org/planet/clim ... TDByStdczI


Why We Can’t Ignore U.S. Military Emissions

The U.S. military’s carbon footprint is bigger than 140 countries combined. To seriously address climate catastrophe, we must dismantle its vast infrastructure.
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Tomorrow might never come

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 03:18:55

Newfie wrote:Doh,

This is probably true. But would horrific events were likely through other processes even without climate change.

This question always remains relevant; given this knowledge...What do we do?


First, thanks to you all providing insight, knowledge and information on this site, sharing your feelings inbetween :roll:
With current 6th extinction event happening as we write, coupled with the ongoing accellerating abrupt CC and the fall of the truly worldwide empire now going on........what to do, terrible and yet.....

Guy is proposing a planetary hospice 8O

https://guymcpherson.com/wp-content/upl ... ospice.pdf

Abstract
The pace of climate change continues to accelerate, and it now appears inevitable that the Great Anthropocentric Extinction currently unfolding will include the end of life as we know it. Characterizing this ‘Great Dying’ as equivalent to a terminal diagnosis for the human race, and assuming an ecopsychological perspective that sees a close relationship between planetary health and mental health, the author applies the stages of grief to this Great Dying, exploring connections retroactively and prospectively between societal mental health trends in the U.S., our awareness of the severity of the threat we pose to the planet, and the stages of grieving the loss of life, and questions the role mental health professionals should play in this context. Looking ahead from this same perspective, the author asks if it is possible to alleviate the pain and suffering that will be associated with the widespread extinctions, mass mortality, and forced migrations that are anticipated by scientific experts as a result of climate disruptions, beginning with the idea of what a “good death” would look like in relation to the end of life as we know it, applying principles from hospice and palliative care. Finally, he offers a hopeful vision that, with an expanding planetary hospice movement and appropriate containing myths, it might be possible to re-cast this Great Dying as a difficult, but spiritually progressive, death/rebirth experience for homo sapiens.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2EC_N2-t1Y

In his own words at a Clip from: 20 April 2019 - Guy McPherson in Santa Cruz Resource Center for Nonviolence


Okay, if this Earth, life as we know it is toast within a few decades, maybe even one or at the latest a few generations, say around 2060.
Your only option is to reach out to something inside, able to survive the blast of your death, your spirit, your own personal power.
Since to only way to get to the holy grail is to save up energy, you need time, you need to be sober and detached, fight self pity, fear and importance as they use up all your power.
That is why it is sound to do your preps, you will have bought some extra time, like a football match, the show must go on until that final moment.
With patience and sobriety, you will learn to wake up your spirit, make it, you move around, see what is outside this bubble, sail the windy side, jump into the dark sea of awareness 8)
Like Guy says, strive for excellence, be impeccable, the right use of energy, personal power which is freedom, nothing less.

That sums up our reason for being here, to discover our true nature and be there, free as a bird, nobody telling you what to do, not even you.
The job of a lifetime, in a way two lifetimes, breaking the parameters of perception, the unavoidable issue of mankind.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 06:35:51

This message dealing with the human condition and finding meaning is universal to all times, not just now during human overshoot. Perhaps the external threats bring more urgency and poignancy to living a harmonious life with yourself, fellow man and fellow life forms.

I do think as the majority will scramble for survival and allow fear to dominate their world views, the ability to cultivate in yourself a sobriety during this chaos will be very helpful for those around you.

Service to others and to our planet and taking the focus off of your own petty survival will also be an orientation worthwhile.

Prepping to serve others as a theme instead of the fear that drives one toward that cowardly rabbit in a hole prepping.

What the Quakers or the Amish represented in being conscientious objectors during war times comes to mind as a way to stand outside the mainstream of fear and holding the ground.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 07 Jul 2019, 12:24:48

"Service to others and to our planet and taking the focus off of your own petty survival will also be an orientation worthwhile."

Well put. (Not so sure about the earlier 'sobriety' bit, though! :) )
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 12:54:20

Ibon wrote:
What the Quakers or the Amish represented in being conscientious objectors during war times comes to mind as a way to stand outside the mainstream of fear and holding the ground.


I was a member of the Society of Friends for a while, so I have to note that the Quakers and/or Amish have never succeeded in stopping war.

My point is that simply passively resisting war or global warming or refusing to participate in things that contribute to war or global warming will do little or nothing to actually stop war or global warming.

Cheers!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 08 Jul 2019, 13:36:06

Yeah, I don’t know. I’m concentrating on how to survive the bottle neck.
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