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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 13:15:24

Fast and furious gun running to Mexico. Using the IRS to target conservative Pacs. The entire FBI/DOJ spying on the Trump campaign based on a dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 13:35:14

But whatabout...whatabout...whatabout...

Are you even aware that what you are saying is a non-sequitur. If I accuse you of stealing a cookie, and you say, 'But what about Jeffrey Dahmer!" I hope you can see that saying this would have no bearing on whether or not you were guilty of cookie stealing. It is clearly just a distraction. The exact same is true of what you're saying. It's just a childish way to try to distract attention away from the undeniable fact that Trump's declaration of emergency has nothing to do with any emergency and everything to do with expediency (the opposite of emergency) to pander to the basest of his base and pretend that he is trying to get his idiotic, racist, and inevitably ineffective wall built.

But then, that is how you have been trained by your Russian overlords, apparently...

Western officials referred to the Soviet propaganda strategy by that [whataboutism]. The tactic saw a resurgence in post-Soviet Russia, relating to human rights violations committed by, and criticisms of, the Russian government.

The technique received new attention during Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Ukraine. Usage of the tactic extended to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.

The Guardian deemed whataboutism, as used in Russia, "practically a national ideology"...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism
Last edited by dohboi on Sat 16 Feb 2019, 13:39:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby GHung » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 13:37:30

Cog wrote:Fast and furious gun running to Mexico. Using the IRS to target conservative Pacs. The entire FBI/DOJ spying on the Trump campaign based on a dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton.


That's generally what happens when you bad-mouth people/organizations and treat them like shit. They do what Trump does; come back at you.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 14:02:28

Russian Overlords? LOL. You guys have a serious case of paranoia. But not about who you should be paranoid about. You have a lot more to fear from your own government than you do a Russian agent.

But if Pelosi keeps her promise to use a national emergency to ban and confiscate guns, then it will be party for sure. You won't want to miss that one.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 14:29:53

dohboi wrote:But whatabout...whatabout...whatabout...

Are you even aware that what you are saying is a non-sequitur. If I accuse you of stealing a cookie, and you say, 'But what about Jeffrey Dahmer!" I hope you can see that saying this would have no bearing on whether or not you were guilty of cookie stealing. It is clearly just a distraction. The exact same is true of what you're saying. It's just a childish way to try to distract attention away from the undeniable fact that Trump's declaration of emergency has nothing to do with any emergency and everything to do with expediency (the opposite of emergency) to pander to the basest of his base and pretend that he is trying to get his idiotic, racist, and inevitably ineffective wall built.

But then, that is how you have been trained by your Russian overlords, apparently...

Western officials referred to the Soviet propaganda strategy by that [whataboutism]. The tactic saw a resurgence in post-Soviet Russia, relating to human rights violations committed by, and criticisms of, the Russian government.

The technique received new attention during Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Ukraine. Usage of the tactic extended to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.

The Guardian deemed whataboutism, as used in Russia, "practically a national ideology"...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism


If you are asking the R’s to fess up to unethical behaviorist ( and I think they should) then you also need to ask the D’s to fess up to unethical behavior ( and I think they should.)

Disarmament will never be unilateral. I don’t mind you trashing the R’s, provided you give equal attention to the D’s. Elsewise it’s simply jingosim.

In fact I think the whole 2 party system is broken beyond repair and is a large part of why America is struggling with coming to grips with current threats.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 16:03:52

Ah, now Newf is joining in on the whataboutism train...

I guess it's time to take a break from the inanity while the logical fallacy enthusiasts fulfill their fallacious fantasies! :-D

And maybe when I get back we can return the thread to the topic of GW?
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Trumping

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 16:21:14

Just a bit of feelings, bit of CC,

I am a big fan of the Trump clan,

The families nowadays in power are doing everything to get him under control, or rid of him.
Trump is from Brooklyn, always wanted to be with the big boys that took manhattan, they made fun of him and he is getting back at them by trying to drain the swamp, choke the beast to death, stop funding secret forces, special forces and NATO that are in the hands of the very few that control the big money, about 8000 people in charge, worldwide.

To make the link to CC, he is aligned with the elites program, to sell the issue to the public as a minor thing, deny the disaster which is a fine strategy to keep things calm and working to the very end. The elite plan is to bug out around 2030, to keep economy running smooth until then, declare martial law and take everything, again, worldwide.
He is the underdog, no way he can win, match a group like Bilderberg, he has to give and take.
Most of them are lucifarians...bbrrrr

The great thing in my humble opinion is that he is giving them a headache, possible migrane.........way more complicated to move around then the former negro on the throne, or the idiot son or very recent even a possible vagina that can speak up and make idiocy reasonable. Ever wonder why they gave woman the right to vote? Freedom, work and tax, double income for the Lucky few.
Finally some real opposition in the house instead of well paid actors that sell policy to public that for the most part do not understand the way things work around here.

At least Trump is not a rapist like uncle Bill flying high on the Lolita Express.....

We are playing the hunger games,
Just because we happen to live in the Capital, district 1 with cars and luxery machines, right to vote, does not mean we are free
or this western modern way is not a very corrupt and criminal way of life.
Besides indulgence leads to boredom, everybody knows this.
I stopped voting a long time ago, I do not join the circus, one can work with people yet do your own thing. Controlled folly.
Better stop and read bedtime story for my loved ones :oops:
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 17:23:23

dohboi wrote:Ah, now Newf is joining in on the whataboutism train...

I guess it's time to take a break from the inanity while the logical fallacy enthusiasts fulfill their fallacious fantasies! :-D

And maybe when I get back we can return the thread to the topic of GW?


Yes maybe you should take a break for I’ve not a clue what you are going on about.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby GHung » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 17:35:28

Cog wrote:.......

But if Pelosi keeps her promise to use a national emergency to ban and confiscate guns, then it will be party for sure. You won't want to miss that one.


Gosh Cogoid, I can't find where Pelosi promised to do that. Citation? Or is it more Cog propaganda (AKA: bullshit)? When it comes to backing up your idiotic assertions, your record sucks.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 18:05:51

I do not recall the left's outrage when Obama declared national emergencies thirteen times.

But google what pelosi said in reference to what a Democrat president could do with a national emergency in reference to guns. Took me all of five seconds.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 18:11:32

But since Ghung is lazy to the extreme, I'll do the work for him. I wouldn't recommend Pelosi's proposed actions. Some might object to such a thing rather violently. Just saying.


https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4300 ... cy-on-guns

(D-Calif.) on Thursday issued a warning to Republicans poised to support President Trump's decision to declare a national emergency at the southern border: the next Democratic president, she said, could do the same on guns.

"A Democratic president can declare emergencies, as well," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol. "So the precedent that the president is setting here is something that should be met with great unease and dismay by the Republicans."

Pelosi noted that Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the shooting at a high school in Parkland, Fla., that left 17 students and faculty dead. She argued that the real national emergency is not illegal border crossings, but gun violence in the U.S.
"Let's talk about today: The one-year anniversary of another manifestation of the epidemic of gun violence in America," Pelosi said. "That's a national emergency. Why don't you declare that emergency, Mr. President? I wish you would.
"But a Democratic president can do that."
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby GHung » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 18:44:26

Cog wrote:I do not recall the left's outrage when Obama declared national emergencies thirteen times.

But google what pelosi said in reference to what a Democrat president could do with a national emergency in reference to guns. Took me all of five seconds.



I googled it. Pelosi did NOT say what you stated she said, so you took it out of context which I categorize as a lie.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby GHung » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 19:05:59

Cog wrote:But since Ghung is lazy to the extreme, I'll do the work for him. I wouldn't recommend Pelosi's proposed actions. Some might object to such a thing rather violently. Just saying.


https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4300 ... cy-on-guns

(D-Calif.) on Thursday issued a warning to Republicans poised to support President Trump's decision to declare a national emergency at the southern border: the next Democratic president, she said, could do the same on guns.

"A Democratic president can declare emergencies, as well," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol. "So the precedent that the president is setting here is something that should be met with great unease and dismay by the Republicans."

Pelosi noted that Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the shooting at a high school in Parkland, Fla., that left 17 students and faculty dead. She argued that the real national emergency is not illegal border crossings, but gun violence in the U.S.
"Let's talk about today: The one-year anniversary of another manifestation of the epidemic of gun violence in America," Pelosi said. "That's a national emergency. Why don't you declare that emergency, Mr. President? I wish you would.
"But a Democratic president can do that."


Again, where/when did Pelosi promise what you claimed she promised, upthread ?

"But if Pelosi keeps her promise to use a national emergency to ban and confiscate guns, then it will be party for sure.

It's a very simple question, Cog. Maybe you should stick to Trump's "promises", like The Great Solar Wall of Trump that Mexico isn't going to pay for:

"...And we're thinking of something that's unique. We're talking about the southern border, lots of sun, lots of heat. We're thinking about building the wall as a solar wall so it creates energy and pays for itself. [Applause] And this way, Mexico will have to pay much less money. And that's good, right? Is that good. [Applause] You're the first group I've told that to, a solar wall. Makes sense. Let's see. We're working it out. We'll see. Solar wall, panels, beautiful...."

Jun 21 '17 - https://factba.se/transcript/donald-tru ... ne-21-2017
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dissident » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 19:10:34

Whataboutism is a huge steaming pile of logical fallacy BS. When the USA accuses other countries of human rights abuse, people who point to the fact that the US abuses human rights on a grand scale itself are not engaged in whataboutism. The substance of the "debate" is human rights abuse and one country invoking some self-anointed moral authority to lecture and physically attack other countries. It is not which country is guilty of human rights abuse. Right now in France there is a substantial amount of human rights abuse against yellow jacket protestors. But France is basically a normal country with a relatively descent record of human rights. So human rights abuse is a symptom of circumstances and society itself which applies to all countries (including goody two shoes like Canada). Human rights abuses do not justify war foisted from abroad (e.g. Syria) which ultimately lead to much more human rights abuse (e.g. Syria).

We do not have any system that can eliminate human rights abuse and countries cannot be anthropomorphized into "perps" needing to be put in jail for their "crimes". We can at least minimize wars which are mostly two-faced exercises justified in the name of goodness but about base economic motives.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Cog » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 19:26:15

GHung wrote:
Cog wrote:I do not recall the left's outrage when Obama declared national emergencies thirteen times.

But google what pelosi said in reference to what a Democrat president could do with a national emergency in reference to guns. Took me all of five seconds.



I googled it. Pelosi did NOT say what you stated she said, so you took it out of context which I categorize as a lie.


A House bill has already been introduced to ban all semi auto rifles capable of holding more than 10 rounds. Course all magazines would be banned over 10 rounds. Do I need to look up that bill for you as well? Please try not to be so lazy.

Your Democrat senators running for president have not hidden their contempt for gun owners and will use all means to imprison or kill them.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 16 Feb 2019, 20:15:47

Thread Title (and presumably topic of discussion)

GLOBAL WARMING/ CLIMATE CHANGES.
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Moskou, effects of abrupt CC in the arctic

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 17 Feb 2019, 08:56:30

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 586,64.715

Moskou is about to reach a daily max temp of 5 degrees C.
The record stood at 2 degrees, 2002.
The heat goes all the way to the pacific, ok, Northeast Asia, sea of Japan.
Very early in the season, the heat is on.
The highs and lows keep hanging for days, sometimes weeks, traffic jams that bring heat North/cold down South.
The whole circulation of the air in the atmosphere of the NH is changing to a new stable state that will be dictated by the seasons, topography and the dice, at the end without ice, a hothouse.

People with more brains than I probably looked into the paleoclimate with an ice free arctic, I bet one way to find out wether or not there were sea ice is looking at the wave hight, breaking on the shoreline, must be traces left down in the permafrost layers.
So once you know the change into a blue ocean, if that happened before, you should be able to tell more about the effects.
R.Abbey looked into these matters, by looking at the ice bores of the GIS.

Rapid advances have also come from the development of sediment proxy methods used to reconstruct environmental conditions and biological, chemical and physical processes influenced by climate (Supplementary Table 2). Examples used in the following discussion of Arctic climate and ecosystem evolution include micropaleontological records of benthic and pelagic communities, proxies of sea-ice cover, sediment transport, marine biological productivity, ocean temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and circulation, and ice sheet and ice shelf activity.


Arctic sea ice only exists for the past 3 million years or so?
I finally understood why the ESAS is so thick and extensive, the Russian rivers, the ones headed North, were never Ice capped by a thick sheet or shelf, too far from the sea or ocean, to dry with the cold, even in an interglacial.
Greenland has the heat of the golf right next to it, so even Baffin and rest of the Canadian islands got icecapped, locked in.
But then Alaska did not have an extensive ice sheet as well, otherwise those humans, sapiens sapiens, the latest version, never could have crossed the land bridge at the last glacial. Other then the Asian side the Yukon runs West, only some short rivers going North from the Brooks range, reason why the Beaufort sea is pretty deep, as opposed to the Bering sea.

So we are looking for an earlier change from interglacial to hothouse.
Good news for a change, succesfull adaptation :-D

https://polarbearscience.com/2016/01/09 ... e-changes/

Arctic climatic extremes include 25°C hyperthermal periods during the Paleocene-Eocene (56–46 million years ago, Ma), Quaternary glacial periods when thick ice shelves and sea ice cover rendered the Arctic Ocean nearly uninhabitable, seasonally sea-ice-free interglacials and abrupt climate reversals.
The final discussion and two summary graphics from this paper (copied below) are especially useful:

The Cenozoic ecosystem changes in the Arctic described above are summarized in Figs. 5 and 6 within the context of climate changes over different timescales. Several conclusions can be made.
First, a seasonally ice-free marginal and central Arctic Ocean was common not only during Greenhouse worlds of PETM and Early Eocene, but also during the Pliocene, the early Quaternary before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, during MIS 11, MIS 5 and regionally during the early Holocene.
During orbital climatic cycles of the last few hundred thousand years, interglacial periods were characterized by perennial and at times seasonal sea ice cover and inhabited by marine ecosystems similar to those of the pre-industrial Holocene. Some species thought to be dependent on summer sea ice (e.g., polar bears) survived through these periods.
In contrast, during glacial periods the much smaller Arctic Ocean and much of the adjacent continents were covered with massive ice sheets, thick ice shelves, and sea ice making large regions virtually uninhabitable to most species that inhabit today’s Arctic.
Despite the scale, frequency and rapidity of Quaternary climate changes, Arctic marine ecosystems associated with sea-ice habitats were extremely resilient, adapting through geographic range expansion into the Arctic during warm periods, and south into extra-Arctic regions during glacial periods. The stratigraphic record of the last 1.5 Ma indicates that no marine species’ extinction events occurred despite major climate oscillations.
The Cenozoic sedimentary record is too incomplete to conclude that large climate transitions caused extinction of Arctic species, but hopefully future IODP coring will recover more complete records. More generally, future cross-discipline studies of Arctic species and ecosystems combining molecular methods and paleoclimate reconstructions will result in a better understanding of how biological systems respond to climate changes. [my bold]


Free paper here: from december 2015, fairly recent.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 015-0019-3

Abstract:

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid climatic changes including higher ocean temperatures, reduced sea ice, glacier and Greenland Ice Sheet melting, greater marine productivity, and altered carbon cycling. Until recently, the relationship between climate and Arctic biological systems was poorly known, but this has changed substantially as advances in paleoclimatology, micropaleontology, vertebrate paleontology, and molecular genetics show that Arctic ecosystem history reflects global and regional climatic changes over all timescales and climate states (103–107 years). Arctic climatic extremes include 25 °C hyperthermal periods during the Paleocene-Eocene (56–46 million years ago, Ma), Quaternary glacial periods when thick ice shelves and sea ice cover rendered the Arctic Ocean nearly uninhabitable, seasonally sea-ice-free interglacials and abrupt climate reversals. Climate-driven biological impacts included large changes in species diversity, primary productivity, species’ geographic range shifts into and out of the Arctic, community restructuring, and possible hybridization, but evidence is not sufficient to determine whether or when major episodes of extinction occurred.


Intro:

Today’s Arctic climate is warming faster than most other regions and losing summer sea-ice cover at historically unprecedented rates [27, 186]. This pattern of “Arctic amplification” is due to the changes in albedo [145], heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean and other processes [146, 172] that are consistent with paleoclimate evidence for elevated polar temperatures during past warm periods [21, 126]. In addition to sea-ice decline, concerns exist about other climate-related processes that affect Arctic Ocean environments, such as submarine methane release [166], glacier melting [70], greater riverine discharge [147], marine ecosystem shifts [75], changes in biological productivity [9, 198], habitat loss and extinction [163], and carbon cycling [5, 180].
Instrumental and observational records are too short to fully evaluate the long-term effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems, but two disparate fields—paleoclimatology and molecular genetics—now provide a unique context for assessment of climate change in the Arctic. In contrast to model simulations of future climatic and ecosystem change, paleoclimatology and genetics look back in time, using geochronology, physical, geochemical and paleoecological proxy methods, and DNA-based molecular clock analyses. Here we assess marine ecosystem response to past climate changes using an integrated approach based on Arctic sediment records of past intervals of warmth, orbital-scale glacial-interglacial cycles, and abrupt climate transitions
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methane slugolator

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 17 Feb 2019, 09:39:43

https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70007207

Abstract
As the evidence for warming climate became better established in the latter part of the 20th century (IPCC 2001), some scientists raised the alarm that large quantities of methane (CH4) might be liberated by widespread destabilization of climate-sensitive gas hydrate deposits trapped in marine and permafrost-associated sediments (Bohannon 2008, Krey et al. 2009, Mascarelli 2009). Even if only a fraction of the liberated CH4 were to reach the atmosphere, the potency of CH4 as a greenhouse gas (GHG) and the persistence of its oxidative product (CO2) heightened concerns that gas hydrate dissociation could represent a slow tipping point (Archer et al. 2009) for Earth's contemporary period of climate change.
Additional publication details



Slow tipping point, nothing of the 50 Gton up for immediate release....we're saved!! :-D
She did not actually do field work, go to the arctic or anything, but revieuwed the papers of others I think.

https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowled ... e-24314790

Bit of an oldy, 2011, after the hydrates hype of Shakova.

The susceptibility of gas hydrates to warming climate depends on the duration of the warming event, their depth beneath the seafloor or tundra surface, and the amount of warming required to heat sediments to the point of dissociating gas hydrates. A rudimentary estimate of the depth to which sediments are affected by an instantaneous, sustained temperature change DT in the overlying air or ocean waters can be made using the diffusive length scale 1 = √kt , which describes the depth (m) that 0.5 DT will propagate in elapsed time t (s). k denotes thermal diffusivity, which ranges from ~0.6 to 1x10-6 m2/s for unconsolidated sediments. Over 10, 100, and 1000 yr, the calculation yields maximum of 18 m, 56 m, and 178 m, respectively, regardless of the magnitude of DT. In real situations, DT is usually small and may have short- (e.g., seasonal) or long-term fluctuations that swamp the signal associated with climate warming trends. Even over 103 yr, only gas hydrates close to the seafloor and initially within a few degrees of the thermodynamic stability boundary might experience dissociation in response to reasonable rates of warming. As discussed below, less than 5% of the gas hydrate inventory may meet these criteria.


2. Subsea permafrost on the circum-Arctic shelves (<0.25%?).
Sediments on shallow marine continental shelves that fringe the Arctic Ocean are often underlain by permafrost and associated gas hydrates that formed in Pleistocene time, when these regions were subaerial and exposed to much colder annual temperatures. Since the Late Pleistocene, marine inundation of these former coastal plains has led to large (up to 17ºC; Shakhova et al. 2010) temperature increases, partial thawing of subsea permafrost (Rachold et al. 2007), and inferred dissociation of gas hydrates (Semiletov et al. 2004). Increasing pressures (~1 MPa for 100 m of sea level rise since ~15 ka) would have only marginally offset the impact of warming temperatures on the GHSZ. Assuming that (a) 25% of northern-latitude continuous permafrost may have been flooded by Arctic Ocean transgressions since the Late Pleistocene, (b) some of this gas hydrate has dissociated over the past 10 kyr, and (c) less than 1% of the present-day global gas hydrate inventory is associated with permafrost implies that only a fraction of 1% of the global inventory occurs in areas of subsea permafrost. This estimate deserves considerable scrutiny in the coming years. Shakhova et al. (2010a) calculate that gas hydrates on the ESAS should sequester 20% of the carbon (375 Gt C) of the 1.8x103 Gt C within the conservative global gas hydrate inventory estimate (Boswell & Collett 2011).
Simple numerical model: Using the same initial conditions as for the terrestrial permafrost in Sector 1, a sustained temperature increase of DT =10ºC and an accompanying minor pressure increase are applied to mimic the impact of marine inundation of formerly subaerial permafrost to a water depth of 20 m (Figure 1b). After 100 yr, the temperature perturbation has propagated just to the top of gas hydrate stability. After 3000 yr, the permafrost has thawed, and gas hydrates located near the top and the base of the GHSZ are dissociating and releasing CH4.
Example: Shakhova et al. (2010) document CH4 supersaturation in shallow ESAS coastal waters above sediments containing degrading subsea permafrost and presumably dissociating gas hydrates. Studies are underway in similar settings on the Beaufort Sea inner shelf (e.g., Paull et al. 2011, Ruppel et al. 2010). A substantial fraction of CH4 that is emitted at the seafloor on Arctic shelves may reach the atmosphere since bubble dissolution and aerobic oxidation should be limited in such shallow (~5 to 50 m) waters. The challenge lies in proving that at least some of the elevated CH4 concentrations detected in these settings is attributable to dissociating gas hydrates rather than to other processes associated with CH4 generation and/or migration.



That is why this study got the grant, as a response to pacify the alarmed scientists working in the field of hydrates.
375 Gton in the ESAS, not a word on the already free methane, or it acting like a cap, a cork ready to pop. Or the methane escaping as we speak or write. Let us be cautious and presume only 3% release next decade, say 12 Gton extra in the air, a doubling.
That could be put in a model giving what? A one degree jump in average temp?

http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/slugulator/

http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/slugulator/

I let the climate sensitivity at 3 degrees, .817 degrees temperature spike after 8 years!!! The effects wear off after 30 years.
Local effect of 2.2 degrees, enough to melt all the sea ice and kick off the acceleration to a hothouse, within a decade or so.
Less time as it takes to go through college...... :oops:

At the end of last decade we stood at .7 or .8 degrees global average temp. right?
Now we are at about 1.7 degrees above pre Industrial, 1700, that is about a degree.
A one Gton a year release of methane would explain this rise just fine, abrupt CC in progress.
The gang on arctic amp. and the cause wrote a local one, opposed to heat from the south, ESAS is as local as can be, totally within the arctic circle. I bet the ship that tries to get iced in after coming summer, if they mange to, finds out about elevated methane from the shallows that accumulates at the middle of the troposphere.


One degree in a century , now a degree in a decade, next step is up to a degree a year with a face, phase change or the arctic, first locally, then global rise up to those 6 degrees of Mr.Lynas.

No worries,
Conclusions

Catastrophic, widespread dissociation of methane gas hydrates will not be triggered by continued climate warming at contemporary rates (0.2ºC per decade; IPCC 2007) over timescales of a few hundred years. Most of Earth's gas hydrates occur at low saturations and in sediments at such great depths below the seafloor or onshore permafrost that they will barely be affected by warming over even 103 yr. Even when CH4 is liberated from gas hydrates, oxidative and physical processes may greatly reduce the amount that reaches the atmosphere as CH4. The CO2 produced by oxidation of CH4 released from dissociating gas hydrates will likely have a greater impact on the Earth system (e.g., on ocean chemistry and atmospheric CO2 concentrations; Archer et al. 2009) than will the CH4 that remains after passing through various sinks.
Contemporary and future gas hydrate degradation will occur primarily on the circum-Arctic Ocean continental shelves (Sector 2; Macdonald 1990, Lachenbruch et al. 1994, Maslin 2010), where subsea permafrost thawing and methane hydrate dissociation have been triggered by warming and inundation since Late Pleistocene time, and at the feather edge of the GHSZ on upper continental slopes (Sector 3), where the zone's full thickness can dissociate rapidly due to modest warming of intermediate waters. More CH4 may be sequestered in upper continental slope gas hydrates than in those associated with subsea permafrost; however, CH4 that reaches the seafloor from dissociating Arctic Ocean shelf gas hydrates is much more likely to enter the atmosphere rapidly and as CH4, not CO2. Proof is still lacking that gas hydrate dissociation currently contributes to seepage from upper continental slopes or to elevated seawater CH4 concentrations on circum-Arctic Ocean shelves. An even greater challenge for the future is determining the contribution of global gas hydrate dissociation to contemporary and future atmospheric CH4 concentrations.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 17 Feb 2019, 11:39:13

Cenozoic climate in the Arctic
In 2004, the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX), part of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP Expedition 302), recovered 428 m of sediment from the central Arctic Lomonosov Ridge dating back to 56 million years (Ma) [10, 129, 182]. For the first time, a unique, though incomplete record of Arctic climatic and faunal evolution can be compared to the Cenozoic greenhouse-to-icehouse climate transition established on the basis of deep-sea foraminiferal δ18O records of sea level and temperature and ice core records of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature (Fig. 2). Initial study of ACEX Paleocene-Eocene micropaleontological records Expedition 302 [59] identified numerous diatoms (~40 taxa), silicoflagellates and ebridians (~40), palynomorphs (~58), agglutinated benthic foraminifera (~40) and, due to poor pre-Miocene preservation of calcareous shells, lesser numbers of calcareous nannoplankton, calcareous benthic and planktic foraminifers, and ostracode taxa.


https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 015-0019-3

Looks like we have a warm to cold house transition, the story stored in the sediment of the Earth.

ACEX researchers also investigated key climatic and ecosystem events including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), an ~170,000-year long warm period about 56 Ma when sea-surface temperatures in the Arctic (SST) reached 22 °C [174]. In addition, ACEX recovered sediment from two younger hyperthermal periods—the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) at 53.5 Ma [175] and the Azolla horizon ~48.5 Ma [22]. During ETM2 TEX86-derived SST estimates indicate Arctic temperatures reached 25 °C, dinoflagellate cysts document freshwater influx and eutrophication, and palm pollen suggests winter temperatures on adjacent continents exceeded 8 °C. The dominance of the genus Azolla, a free-floating, freshwater fern, and associated microfossils, characterized an ~800,000-year long interval of episodic fresh surface water, a stratified ocean, endemism in silicoflagellates and ebridians [134], SSTs of 10–14 °C [22], and intermittent oxygen depletion [181] (Fig. 2d, f).


That were thermals from an already ice free arctic. Imagine the storms and rain/snow when the coast gets a temperature difference of 50 plus degrees from inland area's.

Climate history of the late Eocene, Oligocene and early Miocene is poorly known because one age model calls for a major sedimentary unconformity from 44 to 18 Ma [11], and another for a condensed zone representing the interval from 36 to 12 Ma [149]. This introduces uncertainty in identifying key Cenozoic cooling events, such as the Eocene/Oligocene transition ~34 Ma, and their biological impacts. There is, nonetheless, evidence for stepwise cooling during the last 18 Ma of the Cenozoic greenhouse-icehouse transition. For example, IRD, mineral, and radiogenic proxies record a shift from a mid-Miocene climatic optimum (~15 Ma) toward a colder climate since about 13 Ma [41, 66, 79, 179].


Early- to mid-Pliocene global climate (5–3 Ma) serves as an important benchmark for understanding modern climate because Pliocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations were near today’s level (400 ppmv, [139, 171]), but global mean annual temperature (MAT) was about 2.5–3 °C higher [53] and peak sea level ~22 m higher [127]. Pliocene Arctic Ocean summer SSTs were appreciably warmer than modern and seasonally sea-ice-free conditions existed in some regions [108, 121]. Non-marine proxy records from continental sections also point to a warm Pliocene climate in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. At Lake El’gygytgyn (Lake “E”) in Siberia summer temperatures were 8 °C warmer than modern [21] and at Ellesmere Island, Canada, summer and MAT were 11.8 and 18.3 °C higher than today [13]. In addition to periods of warmth, the Pliocene saw continued intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations and crossing of climate thresholds at 4 and 2.75 Ma as ice sheets reached Arctic coastlines [107]. Such warm Pliocene conditions allowed a major trans-Arctic migration of mollusks [58, 195], ostracodes [37], and other groups ~4.5–3.8 Ma when the Bering Strait opened [71, 194]. The direction of this migration was mainly from Pacific-to-Atlantic and probably led to the evolution of some of today’s endemic Arctic species.

Abrupt, suborbital climate transitions
One pressing question is whether climate has reached a “tipping point” such that we are witnessing an abrupt climate reversal (over a century or less) [25]. The last deglacial period (~19–11.7 ka) included several well-known millennial climate events whose onsets and terminations were abrupt transitions. These include stadial periods called Heinrich Event 1 (H1, 17–15 ka), the Younger Dryas climate reversal (YD, 13–11.7 ka) and interstadials called the Bølling-Allerød (B/A, 14.6–13 ka), and the Preboreal period (PB, 11.7–9 ka) (Fig. 4). Importantly, past abrupt climate reversals had major impacts on Arctic marine ecosystems over timescales much shorter than orbital cycles and they provide a unique context for today’s changing Arctic. The last glacial period from 60 to 15 ka included multiple Heinrich Events, identified by ice-rafted sediment and sea-surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean, and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles identified in Greenland ice core oxygen isotopes and extra-Arctic proxy records.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 18 Feb 2019, 13:58:02

https://paulbeckwith.net/

Between 60,000 and 22,000 years ago there were numerous abrupt temperature fluctuations recorded by oxygen and nitrogen isotopes (paleo-thermometer proxies) in Greenland ice cores [1]. Temperatures over parts of Greenland rose by up to 16.5 C within a decade or two, in the largest of these so-called Dansgaard-Oescher (D-O) Oscillations.
I chat on the latest science, about how a lack of Arctic sea-ice was the primary factor. This is crucial info to help us figure out what will happen to Greenland when we have no surrounding sea ice left.



Pauly B on the GIS and sea ice passing into history.

https://m.phys.org/news/2019-02-arctic- ... inked.html

A new study on ice cores shows that reductions in sea ice in the Arctic in the period between 30-100,000 years ago led to major climate events. During this period, Greenland temperatures rose by as much as 16 degrees Celsius. The results are published today (Monday 11 February) in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

A team from British Antarctic Survey (BAS), University of Cambridge and University of Birmingham studied data from ice cores drilled in Greenland. They looked at oxygen isotopes and compared them to climate models run on the ARCHER supercomputer1. From this they determined that sea ice changes were massively significant in past climate change events in the North Atlantic. These periods, called Dansgaard-Oeschger events2, are some of the fastest and largest abrupt climate changes ever recorded. During some of these events, Greenland temperatures are likely to have increased by 16 degrees Celsius in less than a decade.
Lead author, Dr. Louise Sime, a climate scientist at BAS says:
"For years scientists have been puzzled about the correlation between Arctic sea ice loss and the extreme climate events found in the ice core record. There were at least four theories being mooted and for two years we've been investigating this problem. I'm delighted that we have proven the critical importance of sea ice using our numerical model simulations.
"The summer time sea ice in the Arctic has experienced a 40% decline in the last few decades, but we know that about two thirds of that reduction is caused by human-induced climate change. What we now need to determine is, what can be learnt from these past sea ice losses to enable us to understand what might happen next to our climate3."
Dr. Rachael Rhodes, an ice core scientist from Northumbria University says:
"Now that we better understand how sea ice loss is imprinted on Greenland ice cores, we move closer to deciphering between different theories about what triggered these remarkable climate events."
This work confirms a major significance of sea ice for past abrupt warming events. This is important because changes in sea ice have profound consequences on both global and local scales, including impacts on global climate and local ecosystems. Accurate forecasts of Arctic sea ice over the coming decades to centuries are crucial to understanding how the earth will respond to any changes.
Impact of abrupt sea ice loss on Greenland water isotopes during the last glacial period by Louise C. Sime, Peter O. Hopcroft, Rachael H. Rhodes is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.



16 degrees in less than a decade,say 2 degrees Celcius a year!
Even super Archer agrees on this massive change that will alter the face of the Earth and all life that depends on it.
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