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THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 20 Jul 2019, 03:36:30

Cash is also easily tracked. The bills are serialized and any cash transaction within sight of an HD camera creates a tranaction record. Yes, transactions occur out of sight of cameras, and bills are easily tracked by serial number. Every deposit goes through a cash machine, every withdrawal creates a list of bills. Transactions can be inferred when serialized bills crop up in other people's hands.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby dissident » Thu 01 Aug 2019, 21:11:28

The D. Party is full of scum:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUsU-oFyFUw

The D. Party should be renamed to "If you do not vote for us you are Putin's puppet" Party. One note Johnny abuse of power kleptocrats.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 05:53:27

I'm really hope Warren gets the nomination but Kamala Harris works as well for pure entertainment value. Both will be beaten like a dog by Trump. The memes write themselves.


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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby dissident » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 19:48:21

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKCfu4UJQiQ

Wow. Medieval diseases not seen in 3rd world countries are taking a foothold in LA. That is quite an achievement. Note the point about how new taxes have raised billions but the quality of life is getting worse and worse. So-called leftists are frauds. They use the promise of socialism (regardless if this promise is realizable or not) to con their way into power and then milk the masses including people who start and run their own businesses.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 23 Aug 2019, 06:33:08

“For all the plans, climate change does not seem to function in the Democratic Party the way that, say, abortion does within the Republican Party: There isn’t a well-organized contingent of voters waiting to glom onto a climate champion. There is a large, addressable set of voters who care about climate change—but they mostly seem to be activated Democrats, and as activated Democrats they care about a wide range of issues and as such retain a wide range of candidate loyalties. Thanks to years of careful organizing, the banner of climate action can unite the U.S. left’s many constituencies. But they come together as constituencies, and that means that even if they want climate action, it remains only one in a list of demands.

In other words, climate change may occupy a position in the party much like Elizabeth Warren does in the primary: Both are just about every Democrat’s second-best friend.”



https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... ts/596623/
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 23 Aug 2019, 06:37:19

In other words - Humanity itself is at substantial risk - dead people have no human rights. - It’s refreshing and RARE to hear someone bluntly recognize that simple and obvious fact.

Why the Democratic National Committee Must Change the Rules and Hold a Climate Debate

Having a habitable Earth is not a "single issue"; it is the single precondition for every other issue’s existence.

byNaomi KLEIN

Dear Members of the DNC:

Your meeting in San Francisco this weekend takes place against a backdrop that is literally on fire. You are gathering one month after the hottest month ever recorded in human history. You are meeting on the same week that smoke from a record number of wildfires in the Amazon rainforest turned day into night in the Brazilian megapolis of São Paulo. And you are meeting just days after Iceland’s prime minister led her country in its first funeral service for a major glacier lost to climate change.

This is the terrifying context in which you will vote on a series of resolutions to determine whether the presidential primaries will include a dedicated debate about the climate emergency. Not the already scheduled climate “forum” or climate “town hall,” which will surely be fascinating for those who seek them out — but a formal televised debate among the top candidates vying to lead your party and the country.

I am writing to add my voice to the hundreds of thousands of others who have called on you to use your power to turn that debate into a reality.

Many of you are already on board, including the chairs of several state parties, but you are up against some powerful opponents. Let’s take on their two main counterarguments in turn.




Full article at link below.



https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019 ... ate-debate
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 23 Aug 2019, 08:13:02

Newfie wrote:Having a habitable Earth is not a "single issue"; it is the single precondition for every other issue’s existence.


This will increasingly be the case during this century. Related to the line Nature bats last. Also related to the point Heinberg made years ago that real fundamental revolutionary change will happen when the physical underpinnings that hold up a civilization become undermined.

Does the Democratic Party have the balls to be out in front of this issue any more than any other party?

Just like Trump didn't rise in a vacuum so this issue also will not rise in a vacuum. The collective has to be ready to hear it in order to be lead. That is the great hesitation on the part of the DNC to move this to a debate.

If the collective is ready then the issue resonates. IF they are not the issue will alienate.

I don't think we are hurting enough yet so I doubt we will see any real significant shift.
But climate change is definitely moving somewhere from the back burner of denial toward the front burner.... it is somewhere along that path.... How close? Just a little more hurt maybe and we will be there.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 27 Aug 2019, 06:51:27

I’m gonna make a prediction. Toning out on a limb here, y’all keep track of this and call me out if I’m wrong, which is usually the case. Here goes.

BIDEN will be the Democrat nominee. He will keep trudging along through the primaries, he will likely have a lead going into the convention but won’t win on the first ballot. On the second ballot nearly 100% of super delegates will vote for him making it clear he has a commanding lead. If he doesn’t make it on the second ballot it will be shortly thereafter.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Revi » Wed 28 Aug 2019, 08:33:41

Newfie wrote:I’m gonna make a prediction. Toning out on a limb here, y’all keep track of this and call me out if I’m wrong, which is usually the case. Here goes.

BIDEN will be the Democrat nominee. He will keep trudging along through the primaries, he will likely have a lead going into the convention but won’t win on the first ballot. On the second ballot nearly 100% of super delegates will vote for him making it clear he has a commanding lead. If he doesn’t make it on the second ballot it will be shortly thereafter.


I would like to say you're wrong, but I am not optimistic. That might give it to the Demagogue again.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 28 Aug 2019, 11:04:33

I don't think Biden will be the nominee. His lead in the polls just reflects name recognition. Most people don't follow politics closely, and Biden is probably the only name they know amongst the D candidates.

Just as Obama surged past Hillary in 2008 once people learned a bit more about him, I think some D will surge past Biden and get the 2020 D nomination. Right now its looking like Elizabeth Warren. She's rising in the polls and she's starting to attract crowds to her rallies.

My original prediction was that Kamala would be the D nominee---she's black and a woman and I thought that would be enough to win for her. But Tulsi Gabbard dissected Kamala in the last debate and she's faded in the polls.

Its looking now like its going to be Warren. She's a woman and a distant ancestor was a person of color, so the Ds will nominate her. Joe Biden doesn't have a chance---the age of the pale male in the D party has passed.

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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 28 Aug 2019, 11:51:23

I’ve looked at both Betties and Bernie’s climate plans and they are both talking trillions of dollars in infrastructure investment. Better a do nothing than that.

But I wasn’t taking sides, it’s not about what who I would like to win, there are none acceptable to me. I’m talking about how I think the party will manage it.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 28 Aug 2019, 12:03:58

Monmouth University's polling unit, in a highly unusual statement, indicated Wednesday they do not have confidence in their jaw-dropping survey released earlier this week showing former Vice President Joe Biden plunging in the Democratic presidential primary.



https://www.foxnews.com/politics/monmou ... an-outlier
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 28 Aug 2019, 12:58:56

Newfie wrote:
Monmouth University's polling unit, in a highly unusual statement, indicated Wednesday they do not have confidence in their jaw-dropping survey released earlier this week showing former Vice President Joe Biden plunging in the Democratic presidential primary.



https://www.foxnews.com/politics/monmou ... an-outlier


Monmouth Univ. said their poll was an "outlier."

Thats just gibberish.

We won't know if the Monmouth poll is an "outlier" or if it is another data point showing a systematic decline in Biden's poll numbers until we get more polls in the coming weeks. Polling numbers aren't static---they are changing constantly. If you knew what the correct answer was then you could discard this poll as an outlier. But we don't know what the actual support is for Biden, and we don't know how Biden's support is changing on a week to week basis. Thats why we do multiple polls....to collect data on changes in polling numbers through time.


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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 11:10:21

Plantagenet wrote:
Newfie wrote:
Monmouth University's polling unit, in a highly unusual statement, indicated Wednesday they do not have confidence in their jaw-dropping survey released earlier this week showing former Vice President Joe Biden plunging in the Democratic presidential primary.



https://www.foxnews.com/politics/monmou ... an-outlier


Monmouth Univ. said their poll was an "outlier."

Thats just gibberish.

We won't know if the Monmouth poll is an "outlier" or if it is another data point showing a systematic decline in Biden's poll numbers until we get more polls in the coming weeks. Polling numbers aren't static---they are changing constantly. If you knew what the correct answer was then you could discard this poll as an outlier. But we don't know what the actual support is for Biden, and we don't know how Biden's support is changing on a week to week basis. Thats why we do multiple polls....to collect data on changes in polling numbers through time.

Cheers!

You're right that we won't know until we see more data. But you're WRONG to say "it's just jibberish" when THEY aren't confident in the poll until more data is available.

Outliers are outliers, no matter what part of the political spectrum the poll happens to be about. They're not saying it's wrong -- just that they don't know yet -- just like YOU are saying we don't know yet.

...

And note, I'll probably vote for Biden if he's a final candidate, given the alternatives. Not that I like him, but at least he's not HRC or Trump, so I'm NOT talking my book re hoping his numbers are declining.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 30 Aug 2019, 16:30:58

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Outliers are outliers, no matter what part of the political spectrum the poll happens to be about. They're not saying it's wrong -- just that they don't know yet -- just like YOU are saying we don't know yet.


One of the worst things about US political polls is that they never include the statistical error on the poll numbers. Rather then saying Biden is at 27%, for example, they should honestly report that Biden is at 25 +/- 5% or whatever. That would clear up a lot of the confusion over what is an outlier and what isn't.

The statistical errors on US poll numbers are large. Biden might be at 35 +/- 5% in one poll and 27 +/- 4% in another, and perhaps the 27% number looks like an outlier....but when you include all the data and consider the errors on each poll those two polls it might mean Biden's really at ca. 31%.

Cheers!
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 00:40:51

From my Republican perspective, Trump can beat any of the more radical candidates rather easily, so I'd rather one of them is the nominee. Biden comes across as a more old style Dem that would have a good shot at beating Trump. Biden has lost a lot of his mental sharpness from earlier years, but I do believe he will muddle through and get the nomination.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 31 Aug 2019, 07:59:18

Cog wrote:From my Republican perspective, Trump can beat any of the more radical candidates rather easily, so I'd rather one of them is the nominee. Biden comes across as a more old style Dem that would have a good shot at beating Trump. Biden has lost a lot of his mental sharpness from earlier years, but I do believe he will muddle through and get the nomination.


I think even the leadership of the D party understands that the more radical elements turn away many more "moderates" than they attract, and the M's are the key to winning any election.

President Trump's big policy of MAGA, even as a slogan, attracts moderates. Even more so all he has to do is ask the question Reagan asked in 1984, "Are you better off today than you were four years ago". The Obama economy stunk on ice for middle America and the only people who did very well under it were the coastal elites. Even Joe6P living along the coasts is better off today than he was four years ago, and that is what inflates President Trump's odds of reelection to such a great extent. The D party knows this and their fellow travelers in the MSM are constantly harping "recession is about to burst" because they know unless something sharply changes it doesn't much matter who their nominee is.

All that being said their best strategy is to select someone the M portion of the population finds tolerable as President, like "Uncle Joe" Biden. If they let one of the radicals have it then even a harsh recession might not be enough to let them win as the candidate will be too scary to attract the middle, and without the middle the D wing fails. On the gripping hand if they select Biden and he loses they are still likely to gain seats in state elections and the House of Representatives because those are local elections and a radical candidate can appeal to very local biases to win in a way that fails on the national level.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 01 Sep 2019, 11:41:48

Cog wrote:Biden has lost a lot of his mental sharpness from earlier years, but I do believe he will muddle through and get the nomination.


Can you picture Biden in a debate with Trump? Biden is a human gaffe machine. He is guaranteed to say something stupid or dangerous or embarrassing that would make him look unqualified and too senile to be president.

Of course Trump would also be saying stupid, dangerous, and embarrassing things, but we're mostly used to that by now.

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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby dissident » Mon 02 Sep 2019, 08:07:51

The D. Party pretending to be a normal US party like it was perhaps 50 years ago. Biden is clearly and attempt to pander to the deplorables, i.e. the whites and males in particular but also including any fraction of the oppressed groups that does not goose-step to the new PC totalitarian agenda. If the D. Party was honest it would have fielded a black lesbian female and parade huge posters of Trotsky around.
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Re: THE Democrat Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 02 Sep 2019, 08:12:46

Dis,

I think you are wrong. They are being honest, the Democrat party is completely lost, they don’t what they stand for or why we should vote for them. To be honest their posters should have to say “Clueless.”
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