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Arctic sea ice 2019

Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 00:24:09

File under WTF!

I guess we know where all the heat went, while the eastern half of the US was getting an early chill!



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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 20 Nov 2019, 13:54:53

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

The image below shows that Arctic sea ice volume has been at record low levels for the time of year for some time.
[click link to see the complete image]
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As the image below shows, Arctic sea ice extent in the Chukchi Sea is currently very low.
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I would appreciate it if those with more depth/breadth of knowledge were to weigh in on the following tipping point:
As peak heat arrives in the Arctic Ocean, it melts sea ice from below. In Summer 2019, a critical tipping point was crossed; ocean heat could no longer find further sea ice to melt, as the thick sea ice that hangs underneath the surface had disappeared. A thin layer of sea ice at the surface was all that remained, as air temperatures remained low enough to prevent it from melting from above.

This indicates that the buffer has gone that has until now been consuming ocean heat as part of the melting process. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat as it melts, so the temperature will not rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.




The images below show very high sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere for October 2015 and October 2019. In both cases, anomalies of 1.09°C or 1.96°F above the 20th century average were recorded.

The October 2015 anomaly occurred under El Niño conditions, whereas the equally-high anomaly in October 2019 occurred under El Niño/La Niña-neutral conditions, while another El Niño is likely to come in 2020. In other words, the threat is that even more ocean heat is likely to arrive in the Arctic Ocean in 2020.

The danger is particularly high in October, as Arctic sea ice starts growing in extent at the end of September, thus sealing off the water, meaning that less ocean heat will be able to escape to the atmosphere. This increases the danger that hot water will reach sediments at the Arctic Ocean seafloor and trigger massive methane eruptions.


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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dissident » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 11:50:46

Ice heat uptake is not the only process driving this transition. There is also an increased flux of warm water into the polar cap from lower latitudes. So Arctic Ocean warming is reflecting global warming. The term Arctic amplification applies to the ocean as well since it is just geometry. The flux of warm air and warm water into the polar caps is converging from a much larger volume (and surface area) at lower latitudes.

The current transport into the Arctic Ocean depends on the eddy flux. Sea ice has been suppressing eddy activity for a very long time, but loss of nearly total "lock down" by September since the 2000s has activated the wind and surface heating coupling with the atmosphere that generates eddies. So the Arctic Ocean is undergoing a transition to more intense current flows which enhance exchange of water with lower latitudes. As the sea ice that persists for most of the year gets thinner the coupling with the atmosphere becomes more active even when the sea ice is not at a minimum. The activation of transport and sea ice loss and thinning are resulting in yet more sea ice loss. It is possible that the activation has an exponential character at the initial stages so we have the tipping point pattern seen in the surface temperature anomaly.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 14:22:42

dissident wrote:Ice heat uptake is not the only process driving this transition. There is also an increased flux of warm water into the polar cap from lower latitudes. So Arctic Ocean warming is reflecting global warming. The term Arctic amplification applies to the ocean as well since it is just geometry. The flux of warm air and warm water into the polar caps is converging from a much larger volume (and surface area) at lower latitudes.

This is always bringing back on the table possible shutdown of Gulf Stream due to increased ice melting and dumping lots of sweet water down to ocean, detrimental to thermohaline circulation.
Significant backstop for runaway warming of northern hemisphere.

The current transport into the Arctic Ocean depends on the eddy flux. Sea ice has been suppressing eddy activity for a very long time, but loss of nearly total "lock down" by September since the 2000s has activated the wind and surface heating coupling with the atmosphere that generates eddies. So the Arctic Ocean is undergoing a transition to more intense current flows which enhance exchange of water with lower latitudes. As the sea ice that persists for most of the year gets thinner the coupling with the atmosphere becomes more active even when the sea ice is not at a minimum. The activation of transport and sea ice loss and thinning are resulting in yet more sea ice loss. It is possible that the activation has an exponential character at the initial stages so we have the tipping point pattern seen in the surface temperature anomaly.

But again, could you comment on my remarks above?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 17:46:59

The Chukchi Sea STILL hasn't frozen. Its about two months late in freezing up compared to the "normal" way the Arctic ocean used to operate back in the 20th century.

chukchi-sea-ice-coverage-reaches-record-low

Temperatures in Alaska are running at near record highs for two months now. The lack of sea ice is producing is a dramatic warming effect on the surrounding land areas.

Cheers!
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 28 Nov 2019, 14:11:02

The volume of the arctic sea ice is still trending significantly below average and even recent years, lowest its ever been for this this time of year by a notable margin.

I wonder how much the open Chukchi Sea accounts for this deficit, and how much of the deficit is spread across other areas of the arctic.


http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarpo ... 191127.png

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http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarpo ... 191127.png

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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Nov 2019, 16:40:42

Azothius wrote:The volume of the arctic sea ice is still trending significantly below average and even recent years, lowest its ever been for this this time of year by a notable margin.

I wonder how much the open Chukchi Sea accounts for this deficit, and how much of the deficit is spread across other areas of the arctic.

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarpo ... 191127.png

Image


Yes it is absolutely true that "FOR THIS DAY" sea ice volume is at a record low. However in the practical sense I don't think this is terribly significant for the following reason. If you look at any point on the line made by 2019 and draw a horizontal to the next closest line then compare to the bottom scale you will see that the level is parallel to what the other lines have been within 7-14 days.

If you pause and think about it the only time this lower level will be significant in its impact is if the situation persists through the end of March. That is because on nearly all years the level of sea ice for the last two weeks of March and first week of April is nearly static as dawn comes to the Arctic and the melting season starts in late April. If this lag in ice formation lasts through March 2020 then we will have a situation where the delayed peak comes just before the start of melt season. If on the other hand the lag causes the final peak period of 2020 to be a little lower than average it might lead to a new low record in September 2020. However the number of variables that can influence what happens over just a few weeks let alone over the entire 150 or so days of active melt season makes calculating the final result far more of a guessing game than a true calculation.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dissident » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 10:37:26

@EnergyUnlimited

The THC is not the only current in the global ocean. There are multiple currents which form all sorts of regional cells that produce substantial transport of water but are not contributing to the THC. It is true that surface currents are an important part of the THC, but it does not "own" them. The current fluxes associated with Arctic Ocean transport activation are not part of the "shut down" aspect. In addition, the so called shut down is simply ignorant. There cannot be a shut down of ocean currents in the ocean as long as the Sun shines and the winds blow. That is what drives near surface currents. The haline component of the THC is a North Atlantic feature that drives a deep circulation via sinking mostly in the Greenland Sea. This deep THC component does produce more surface flux into the North Atlantic. But if you turn it off, Europe will not freeze over. About 15% of the ocean surface heating of Europe comes from the Gulf Stream. The rest comes from the direct solar heating of the middle and high latitude Atlantic ocean surface water and the meridional transport by the non-THC component of the ocean circulation.

Then we have the showstopper: there are currently no fresh water sources (which includes the Arctic sea ice) that can produce the sort of THC disruption inferred during the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet. At that time massive lakes formed spanning from the current Great Lakes basin along the arc to Great Slave Lake. These were fresh water seas that make the current Great Lakes like ponds. And they existed because of ice dams. Such ice dams failed and there was catastrophic fresh water flux into the North Atlantic (not necessarily via the St. Lawrence valley). But even when such events did occur, they did not stop the long term loss of the ice sheet.

Another detail is that the fresh water THC disruption was at a time when the ice albedo was still a major factor. So a temperature perturbation could restore a cooled state for a while. Today we have no high latitude ice sheets that will stop shrinking and even similar hypothetical fresh water perturbations of the THC will not produce the same result.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 12:06:15

@ Dissident,

Perhaps, as you say, there is not a sufficiently large source of fresh water to shut down the THC, as it was during the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet. But per this study it has already slowed down by 15%, and could slow down further, with significant consequences. So, even if a shut down is not possible, still, the effect of climate change upon it is a real concern.


https://insideclimatenews.org/news/0705 ... hould-care

Scientists have found new evidence that the Atlantic Ocean's circulation has slowed by about 15 percent since the middle of the last century. If it continues to slow, that could have profound consequences for Earth's inhabitants.

Studies suggest it would mean much colder winters and hotter summers in Europe, changing rainfall patterns in the tropics, and warmer water building up along the U.S. coast that can fuel sea level rise and destructive storms. The changes in the North Atlantic could also intensify streams of icebergs into shipping lanes and coastal ice jams that hinder navigation.


As always, relying upon your awareness of studies with opposing views, perhaps you know of some that came to a different conclusion?
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Managing abrupt CC.

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 10:28:52

From that source of popular info: non profit or partisan…...

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/2711 ... zon-nature

TPTB, those in charge, if they still are with Qanon/Trump people opposing them, seem to sell the story that we can still manage the abrupt CC taking place now, worldwide and especially on the arctic. SST is the number one proxy, over 40 feedbacks connected with surface temperature of the oceans, when the first arctic BOE comes along, we humans are in big trouble, if not already.
The power elite sell the narrative that we can keep the effects under control and prevent an extinction level event for complex life on Earth as we know it, the abrupt transition to a hothouse.
They have known this for a decade now, except for some scientists and few people following them nobody is aware of our human predicament, we are grain based and that habitat is history after 3 degrees of abrupt warming, floods, droughts, fires….everything messing up our harvest.
Is it ok to keep humanity in the dark and keep things BAU, like Trump on economy, Titanic after the crash, still floating with the band, music going on.....
Do people have the right to know our situation?
Are we morally obliged to spread the bad news?

The scientists focused on nine parts of the climate system susceptible to tipping points, some of them interconnected:
Arctic sea ice, which is critical for reflecting the sun's energy back into space but is disappearing as the planet warms.
The Greenland Ice Sheet, which could raise sea level 20 feet if it melts.
Boreal forests, which would release more carbon dioxide (CO2) than they absorb if they die and decay or burn.
Permafrost, which releases methane and other greenhouse gases as it thaws.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a key ocean current, which would shift global weather patterns if it slowed down or stopped.
The Amazon rainforest, which could flip from a net absorber of greenhouse gases to a major emitter.
Warm-water corals, which will die on a large scale as the ocean warms, affecting commercial and subsistence fisheries.
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would raise sea level by at least 10 feet if it melted entirely and is already threatened by warming from above and below.
Parts of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that would also raise sea level significantly if they melted.
Just looking at Arctic changes shows how the links between parts of the climate system susceptible to tipping can amplify global warming and its effects, said Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at Exeter University and an author of the commentary.


If multiple tipping points are reached, it's questionable whether emissions reductions will be enough to stabilize the climate system, she said.
"Another problem we have is that we have taken a cost-benefit approach," she said. "Economists assume high-impact tipping points are low probability events, but we may already have passed some of them—which completely changes the way we should be doing our cost-benefit analyses.
"In 2001, IPCC said not to worry (about tipping points) until there is 5 degrees Celsius warming, now they're saying 1 to 2 degrees. Economists have to stay on top of the science."
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 14:48:11

@dissident,
Many thanks for explanation. This subject is coming from time to time and I had much trouble to make my mind on it.
Greenland is not going to melt within several years or few decades after all.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby diemos » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 15:14:52

EnergyUnlimited wrote:Greenland is not going to melt within several years or few decades after all.


https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Rep ... -Ice-Sheet

Current rate of ice loss: about 270 Gt / year (see figure 3)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet
Current size of ice sheet: 2.85e6 Gt

2.85e6 Gt / 270 Gt per year = 10,500 years

So no, not without a massive uptick in melt rate.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dissident » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 15:41:23

Re: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/0705 ... hould-care

It cites the following at the beginning:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 18PA003341

This study contradicts nothing that I stated.

1) The Younger Dryas stadial was due to the climate regime at the time of its occurrence. This includes ice cover over the Northern hemisphere land mass and associated albedo not found today.

2) The study also shows that there was a rapid collapse of the cooling phase which had rapidly onset:

In contrast, our new glacial chronology suggests that the Younger Dryas was instead characterized by glacier retreat, which is indicative of climate warming. This finding is important because, rather than being defined by severe year‐round cooling, it indicates that abrupt climate change is instead characterized by extreme seasonality in the North Atlantic region, with cold winters yet anomalously warm summers.


3) If we had (2) back 12 thousand years ago with much lower CO2 levels and much higher albedo, then we are guaranteed to basically have "nothing to write home about" cooling under current conditions.

The rest of the studies cited in the article linked deal with evidence of slowing of the THC. As I noted already, this is expected due to the breakdown of the haline component. None of these studies deal with quantifying the total heat flux effect on Europe (15% x 15% = 2.25%) and do not demonstrate any Younger Dryas state coming our way. Again, the key point is that a climate perturbation 12 thousand years ago cannot be reproduced today. We are in a resistant warmed state since we lack the ice albedo. Ice albedo and CO2 levels are central to glaciation. If the CO2 (or greenhouse equivalent) level is too high there cannot be any glaciation even with orbital and solar activity variation driven insolation variation. Glaciation over the last 3.3 million years has involved the feedback between ocean CO2 uptake increases due to cooling and the ice albedo acting to drive cooling and maintaining it.

Whatever happens, even from a catastrophic melting of the Greenland ice sheet, is not going to mimic the regime 12 thousand years ago. Our current CO2 equivalent level is over 450 ppmv (probably closer to 500 ppmv). That is a greenhouse level that cannot be overcome with any fresh water flux. People need to think this material through more. We have had major warming periods on this planet including the Eocene (55 million years ago) where the polar oceans saw no winter and big-eyed dinosaurs roamed Arctic land masses. The continental distribution was similar enough and there was not haline driven THC component. So people need to stop elevating the THC as the sole source of high latitude heating. That is simply not the case.

The current THC slowdown has a hard upper bound of 15% of the total heat flux into the North Atlantic that matters for Europe. The writers of these articles should cut the sensationalist crap.
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