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Arctic sea ice 2019

Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 22 Aug 2019, 14:24:22

Wow!
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 22 Aug 2019, 17:06:49

dohboi wrote:Wow!


Do you think it's now time for this?

"Something Drastic Has To Happen" Roger Hallam | BBC HardTalk | Extinction Rebellion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HyaxctatdA

We're sitting on the sidelines. Do we just let this happen? Or, nothing to be done per Guy McPherson?

This month probably will be another record month, I would guess. Do we have enough evidence already?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 22 Aug 2019, 17:12:24

I’m betting we do BAU.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 23 Aug 2019, 09:47:47

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/

Click on the link and you will see that 2019 is now more icy than 2012, likely no new record this year. While it is barely possible something might happen the reality is at this point the sun is very close to the horizon in the Arctic and in just a month it will be setting for its six months of darkness.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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The thin red line

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 11:38:30

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3021 on: August 21, 2019, 03:10:04 PM »

Quote from: Pavel on August 21, 2019, 12:19:54 PM
Thanks for the update. The race is over for the first place at minimum. But 2019 can take the lead again in the fall


"Most probably over" would be a more correct term

The right storm could finish off almost half o the ice still around when looking at piomas thickness maps, 70% of the remaining ice is below 50cm thick and the 60% of that ice is not a homogeneous ice-area but fragmented into small and tiniest pieces.


https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... v.html#new

Piomas discussion on arctic sea ice forum, it looks like we dodged the bullet, another gift from the spirit. :-D
Heavy low grinding the sea ice now but things are cooling.
We have another heat wave in Europe, end of august, late in the season, that heat might go North.
We are not completely out of the woods just yet but it looks promising, no BOE or even a record this year.
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Thunder and lightning on sea ice

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 27 Aug 2019, 11:07:30

https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2016 ... ormal.html

Here's what I found, and what came at the end made my jaw drop in regard to lightning strikes and thunderstorms over the Arctic Sea Ice - and the massive changes in the last 16 years of increasing thunderstorm activity over the Arctic Ocean.


If such a thing is exponential, there should be an increase in the past few years.

June 28 to July 12, 2015, represents the first major shift in the Arctic Ocean paradigm, with lightning strikes ending up in places unimaginable in 2000. A whole cluster of thunderstorms penetrated deep into the ice pack, all the way to 80N. It can be surmised that the storms contributed to ice pack movement and fracture.

The map of June 28 to July 12, 2016 brings this to a somber conclusion - the Arctic lightning detection maps begin to reveal thunderstorms penetrating where lightning has never been seen - thunder never heard, with the ice pack being pelted with rain in ever heavier amounts. We are seeing lightning strikes at 80N, 625 miles into the Arctic Ocean icepack from Barrow. Part of our changing climate that humanity has not seen previously -and cannot change.


There should be more info, you cannot hide the flashes and thunder.
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Near North pole thunder

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 28 Aug 2019, 06:59:18

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/envi ... y-strange/
Lightning happens all the time, but certain parts of the world get far less of it than others, including near the North Pole. Lightning requires atmospheric instability, something that’s set up when cold, parched air sits atop warmer, wetter air. At very high latitudes, that hotter, damper air tends not to show up.
That’s why it took scientists by surprise when dozens of lightning strikes were detected within 300 nautical miles of the North Pole this past weekend. In fact, it was so unusual that it was highlighted on Twitter by the National Weather Service’s office in Fairbanks, Alaska. A bulletin of theirs said this was “one of the furthest north lightning strikes in Alaska forecaster memory.”
Although plenty of factors needed to come together to produce the lightshow, the specter of climate change lingers over this meteorological mystery. It is possible that a freakishly warm Arctic, a staggering lack of sea ice, and even possibly smoke from unprecedented wildfires within the Arctic Circle, among other things, contributed to this lightning’s unexpected appearance near the top of the world.

“It has been an extraordinary year and an extraordinary summer in the far north,” says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Weird things are happening in the Arctic, and quirky lightning is yet another peculiarity to add to the growing list.


Yup, there it is 8)

85 degrees NL, not the pole just yet but one day or night it will be bulls eye, we already see the water vapour/rain of the South moving up North, I bet decades early as predicted by models or science guesstimate.
Earth's atmosphere has already abruptly changed, within our lifetime, even within past decade.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 04 Sep 2019, 11:39:24

Alaska sea ice completely melted for 1st time in recorded history



https://truthout.org/articles/alaskas-s ... d-history/
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 05 Sep 2019, 11:58:20

Thanks OL,

From your link:

A recent UN report estimates 2 billion people are already facing moderate to severe food insecurity, due largely to the warming planet. The other contributing factors are conflict and economic stagnation, but extreme weather events and shifting weather patterns are a large and growing contributor to this crisis, which is sure to escalate over time.
Nine out of the 10 hottest Julys ever recorded have occurred since 2005.
Another recent study, titled “Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient,” showed that many animals are no longer able to adjust quickly enough to the climate crisis. While birds are laying their eggs earlier as temperatures and conditions change, and are doing what they can to coax their chicks to hatch sooner, it is still not enough to keep apace with the dramatically shifting climate. Many more extinctions are on the horizon.



https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/09/04 ... CLQ0pP_ly8

What do wealthy capitalists do in response to the ever present threat of nuclear annihilation or a biosphere teetering on the edge of collapse? Why they build enormous, fortified bunkers deep underground, of course. Here they can live like the descendants of the mammals that survived the extinction of the dinosaurs in the late Cretaceous and early Paleocene around 65 to 100 million years ago. The long deceased necrolestes patagonensis, whose shockingly appropriate meaning for this comparison is “grave robber,” are the descendants of the cronopio who narrowly escaped the dinosaurs’ fate by burrowing deep under the earth’s soil.
But these modern day mammals will apparently live in far greater luxury than these furry predecessors when the planet suffers from the next cataclysmic event. Several of these soon to be denizens of the lavish underworld are showcased in a recent article by Julie Turkewitz in the New York Times entitled “A Boom Time for the Bunker Business and Doomsday Capitalists.” And their lairs, while devoid of anything remotely tasteful, are bedecked in the latest technological conveniences and comforts, including movie theatres, swimming pools and yoga studios. What would it feel like to be doing a hatha stretch beneath a deadened world?
These kinds of news items often make a joke out of our collective predicament. After all, most of us understand that wealth does not beget intelligence or a sense of decency. But the existential crisis we are all facing is not funny. Climate change induced ecological collapse and the ever present threat of nuclear devastation or even annihilation loom ever large. The latter issue recently came to the fore following a disastrous accident in the Russian Federation involving a nuclear fueled missile test. Several scientists were killed, many others suffered from radiation poisoning, and an entire area has been closed off due to fallout contamination. This event, exacerbated by the Trump administration’s threatened abandonment of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, has stoked fears of a renewed and emboldened arms race.


Thanks to Sean from Canada

https://www.facebook.com/sean.lowes/pos ... 2450702023

On the sea ice, we are in for a very interesting refreeze with all that extra energy up North
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New arctic cold pole down central GIS

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 08 Sep 2019, 02:16:46

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 083,47.631

Dorian spinning around Newfoundland.

Then 5 lows rotating in a circle around the GIS high. Even one locked in Baffin Bay, between the sheets......

We already see the new regime kicking in, getting stronger every cycle, every year.
Could be a decade until we are fixed without any arctic sea ice and the Baffin/Nova Zembla/Ellsmere ice sheets and glaciers gone with another decade, rest only the giant GIS collapse, faster and faster, several to many decades.
At the end only the high Denali one and Kluane park, highest coastal range on Earth, from sea to 20000 ft within 20 miles.
Russian peak Cummunismos will do fine as well.
It is just the lowland, lower elevations ice that is toast.

https://www.nps.gov/dena/getinvolved/dca_kremers.htm

The Earth today is covered about 71 percent by water (most of it in the oceans) and about 29 percent by land. Of this land surface area, about 10 percent (or six million square miles) is covered by glaciers, ice fields, and ice sheets. This glacial ice blankets Antarctica and parts of Greenland, Iceland, Canada, Russia, and Alaska, and it exists in additional mountainous regions on every continent except Australia. In the European Alps, for instance, there are more than 1200 valley glaciers. Scientists estimate, however, that by 2025 the glaciers in the Alps will have lost more than 90 percent of the ice that was in them a century before.
A valley glacier generally flows in one direction, whereas an ice cap or an ice sheet flows outward in all directions from the center. An ice sheet is defined by glaciologists as covering more than 50,000 square kilometers (20,000 square miles). Ice sheets covered much of the Northern Hemisphere during the series of Pleistocene ice ages, but today just two major ice sheets remain on Earth: one on Greenland and one on Antarctica. The Greenland ice sheet currently covers about 650,000 square miles and is about 10,000 feet high at its summit. The Antarctic ice sheet covers about 5.4 million miles and includes three geographic sections. The East Antarctic ice sheet ranges from about 11,000 to 13,000 feet at its highest elevations, whereas summits on the West Antarctic ice sheet and on the Antarctic Peninsula are lower: about 8,200 feet.


People who study glaciers—glaciologists, geophysicists, geologists—become attached to their glaciers, I suppose, in a similar way. They interact with their subjects from season to season, year in and year out, until they've developed (unconsciously, subconsciously) a relationship. I know this is true, for I've observed how they write and speak of it, reflecting reverence and respect, excitement and wonder in their voices and eyes. Clearly they value their work. I think it must be hard, then, for such scientists to be witnessing the slow and fast thinning—nay, perhaps disappearance—of glaciers all over the world.


I learned only recently that Alaska has an estimated 100,000 glaciers—wow! Some are named, but most are not. Together they cover 29,000 square miles or about 5 percent of Alaska's total land surface. In comparison to the 5.4 million square miles of the Antarctic ice sheet, these statistics may seem miniscule. But the importance of glaciers to Alaska's land-based and ocean-based ecosystems is not miniscule. And, to me, Denali the mountain is not miniscule, either. "The High One" is a glacial world incarnate: ever white, ever cold and moving, literally and figuratively. At 20,310 feet, this mountain is higher than any of the 13,000 and 14,000-foot peaks in the Rocky Mountains


But here's the thing: like Homo sapiens, every glacier in the world is a unique creation, a unique being. Every glacier has a unique set of physical characteristics that help determine how that glacier responds to changes in mass balance (more about that below) and hence to changes in climate.
Each glacier gains mass when snowfall accumulates on its surface. And each glacier loses mass primarily through surface melting (called ablation). According to Rob Burrows, the scientist responsible for glacier monitoring at Denali National Park and Preserve, "A glacier's mass balance is the difference between accumulation and ablation, across the entire glacier. Mass balance describes the overall health of the glacier from year to year, as well as cumulatively over years, decades, and centuries."
On any glacier, generally the average summer season temperature drives total ablation for any given year, and the total winter snowfall drives accumulation. (As Rob points out, though, in the Alaska Range at elevations above 12,000 or 13,000 feet, air temperatures are below freezing year-round, so there is rarely a summer season. At these elevations and above in the Alaska Range, snowfall and winds drive both ablation and accumulation.) Besides ablation and accumulation, numerous other characteristics of a glacier can also affect its behavior—including the glacier's size, elevation range, aspect (the compass direction that the glacier faces), slope, number and arrangement of tributaries, area-altitude distribution (called hypsometry), whether the glacier ends in a body of water (such as a lake or an ocean), and the underlying and surrounding geology of the glacier's bed or basin. If a glacier's surface is covered by rock debris, for instance (due to bedrock that readily erodes), this debris can insulate the glacier's surface ice, slow down melt rates, change flow rates and the amount of meltwater and sediment discharge, and complicate the observation and measurement of the glacier's advance or retreat.
Any or all of these variables can affect how a single glacier influences ecosystems, habitat, rivers, and streams, or how a glacier influences landscape or affects sea level. And there are 881 unique glaciers (and counting) in the park!



Each mammal is unique indeed but what really binds us is that we are to die together with complex life for the next 5 to 10 million years unless we as individuals unlock this wordly perception and take our wings into the unknown, the windy side of life.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

We managed to hold the 80 degree NL line on the western side but the eastern side is about halfway gone to the 85 degree line, Even Northeast Spitsbergen is near ice free.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 08 Sep 2019, 09:53:01

Tanada wrote:https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Click on the link and you will see that 2019 is now more icy than 2012, likely no new record this year. While it is barely possible something might happen the reality is at this point the sun is very close to the horizon in the Arctic and in just a month it will be setting for its six months of darkness.


I just checked, 2019 is now tied with 2011 for this date, just below 2007 and an easily seen amount over 2012 which remains the record holder.

Bottoming out of the thaw cycle has taken place in September on all prior recorded years so it is extremely likely we will have the answers for this year within 22 days. This is indeed a low ice remaining year, but it is not significantly worse than it was any time in the last 40 years of satellite data.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 09 Sep 2019, 13:33:43

Another ship of fools gets evacuated from being stuck in the ice!

The MS MALMO came to a grinding halt on Sep 3 off Longyearbyen, the Svalbard Archipelago, halfway between Norway and the North Pole, when it encountered impenetrably thick ice.

The Swedish vessel, built in 1943 and refurbished in 2014, was on an “Arctic tour” with the noble mission of ferrying a team of Climate Change documentary filmmakers to the front line.

All 16 icehuggers on-board wound up being evacuated by helicopter in very challenging conditions and at the expense of a carbon-footprint of yeti proportions.




https://electroverse.net/thick-arctic-i ... ilmmakers/
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Happy sailing

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 09 Sep 2019, 14:50:05

JawaG, Good news on the frontline!
It is the other islands, East arctic ocean, that can be sailed around.

Tanada, did you check Piomass or the other proxies like extent?
With the ice so thin and spread out it feels like we are at record low but you are stating we are at third position?
Third lowest? I trust Piomass more than the others but I read somewhere it is not easy to measure and keep an eye on.

Thanks for the updates.
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The new GIS Gyre

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 13:46:20

Ex Dorian is pulling air from west Baffin counterclockwise, bit of air along Davis strait making a loop around Greenland.
Imagine no sea ice, we will have a brand new cold pole.
Sea ice would probably not recover, reform at all after some tipping point when all those depressions act like a giant heat pump bringing moisture, a blanket of water right up the pole and into the arctic basin.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 085,61.659

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/


Heating of the water in the Arctic Ocean is accelerating, as illustrated by above map that uses 4-year smoothing and that shows temperatures in the Arctic that are up to 4.41°C hotter than the average global temperature during 1880-1920.
The NOAA image on the right shows the sea surface temperature difference from 1961-1990 in the Arctic at latitudes 60°N - 90°N on September 7, 2019.
Where Arctic sea ice disappears, hot water emerges on the image, indicating that the temperature of the ocean underneath the sea ice is several degrees above freezing point.


https://neven1.typepad.com/

2019 had a real opportunity during July to further move away from 2012, but failed to do so. Both years had a volume loss that was well below the 2007-2018 average of 6037 km3, which isn't that surprising given how low they both already are. 2017 had even less of a volume loss, and so 2019 is still lowest and the gap with number 2 has grown a little bit. All other years, except for 2014, managed to close the gap somewhat.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 21:23:15

(This is more 'Arctic' than 'Arctic sea ice'...but...)

Some here and elsewhere have suggested that warming of the Arctic could prompt a huge greening, with a major drawdown of carbon as forests, etc, grow up where there is now tundra. The following points out that this is not how things are turning out so far...we are seeing more of a 'browning' than a 'greening' !

Turning the Arctic brown


...Despite this, from a scientific point of view, much of the Arctic is unexplored and unknown. One thing we know for certain is that for approximately 35 years it has seen increasing growth of vegetation — a process known as ‘Arctic greening’. However, now it looks as though some of it might actually be turning brown.

When satellites in space detect plants on Earth they measure the ‘greenness index’, in other words, how green the ground cover of plants is. How lush the foliage on the ground appears from space can represent a number of aspects down on earth, from plant growth to leaf area. But if areas of the Arctic are browning, it may indicate something else as well: plant death.

The plant death can be a result of extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent in the Arctic as the climate warms.

A sudden period of warmth in the middle of winter tricks the plants into thinking it’s spring, so they burst bud early and lose their cold hardiness, leaving them unprepared for a return to normal cold winter temperatures.

The plant die-back that follows the events of this ‘extreme winter warming’ also appear to be significantly reducing the ability of Arctic ecosystems to help combat climate change.


https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/arc ... g-1.864694
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