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Arctic sea ice 2019

def in trouble

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 31 Jul 2019, 02:10:41

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

Melt is not confined to 80 degrees, it looks like up to 85 degrees NL for the yellow and greens to come, maybe even some blue. That is a big deal, surface sea ice of a small inner circle is but a fractionof 80 degrees.
It will not matter if there is a huge cyclone or not, melt moment with accumulated heat will finish what is left, maybe not next end of september but almost surely next year.
We will likely see massive crop failures by 2022, that is why 5G is implemented with speed, a last effort to control and wipe out the masses by techno fix.
Epstein were on (the) board of a survival shelter company, with school/playgrounds and nursery.
Planned in advance. Polly in amazement had a YouTube on it, tipped by quite Frankly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmvzjkfmEPU, lifeboat foundation with lifeshield bunkers 8)
Silicon valley criminals, big tech have private jets for New Zealand to get to their doomsteads.
Race against the clock, EU is falling apart and awakening is on the North American agenda this fall.

Confused? Not anymore after this episode...….! :-D
I thought Richard Burton played in that old series....not really old, I were 10 or so, 48 now so less than 40, maybe 35 years ago, anyone remember?

https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/survivo ... t7052.html

May 18, 2006#2
"I'm Mr. Peppyflake, I used to be a schleppy flake!"

LOL

Too bad Richard Mulligan and the woman that played his wife and the Colonel are all dead. Along with Billy Crystal ever being entertaining again.
Richard Mulligan, my mistake, had the first name right.... :roll:
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Victoria Island heat

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 02 Aug 2019, 16:42:32

24 degrees C. East of banks…...awfully close to the last stand before the final push, the central arctic sea ice pack.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 466,70.370

Two lows joining forces could wipe out all sea ice south of 80, even part between 80 and 85.

Hot august followed by an Indian summer. 8)

Like a tsunami rolling in, one cannot help but marvel at the awesome power of events happening worldwide :roll:
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Paul B. on sea ice

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 12:47:45

https://paulbeckwith.net/

Abrupt Climate System Disruption is clearly accelerating; we are in a global climate EMERGENCY, not yet widely acknowledged by the powers that run our society. This will change very soon, as geopolitics pivots to a fight for our very existence on this planet.
The HUGE Achilles Heel of our climate system is the Arctic, and the Blue Ocean Event that is coming at us like a freight train.
It will hit us hard, but how hard?
I don’t have anywhere near all the answers but I go through the very latest science and my thoughts on what we can expect in a few short years when Arctic sea-ice vanishes from the top of our planet.



BOE gives 56 ppm worth of CO2, a sudden jump.
Fine video's, he looks at the whole system trying to see what is on the menu.
To know what Earth has in store.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 14:06:48

I must admit, I haven’t paid much attention to global warming and the arctic sea ice. A few headlines recently halved caught my attention. Maybe it’s time I started doing some research? Is this one of those topics that has 50% pro and 50% anti and they argue back and forth?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 14:21:09

Not sure what you mean but the arctic sea ice is disappearing like a 2% bank account in a 10% inflation cycle.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby diemos » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 14:27:13

Armageddon wrote:Is this one of those topics that has 50% pro and 50% anti and they argue back and forth?


It's a situation where the solutions are so painful that people prefer to live in denial and pretend there isn't a problem.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 15:11:17

diemos wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Is this one of those topics that has 50% pro and 50% anti and they argue back and forth?


It's a situation where the solutions are so painful that people prefer to live in denial and pretend there isn't a problem.



Sounds like:

Looming economic crash
Peak oil
911
Etc
Last edited by Armageddon on Sat 03 Aug 2019, 16:18:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Armageddon

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 15:45:02

Easy check on daily concentration charts but Paul B. has the latest details on the disaster.
If he is right and it looks like it, BOE spells armageddon :roll:

Nobody wants this to happen but some things are on track, feedback loops that cannot be denied anymore.
Paul escapes in "if only we declare a global emergency and collectively do what is right".....we have a chance to turn this ship around.
Me I think we can only stall, prepare and brace for impact, this will hurt.
Global harvest down the drain, a real problem without solution, a predicament.
Without sea ice no GIS or enough food to feed current population of mammals.
Anyway, welcome to our little group of ice junkies.
I wish the situation were different, a really huge bummer :cry:
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Re: Armageddon

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 16:20:01

Whitefang wrote:Easy check on daily concentration charts but Paul B. has the latest details on the disaster.
If he is right and it looks like it, BOE spells armageddon :roll:

Nobody wants this to happen but some things are on track, feedback loops that cannot be denied anymore.
Paul escapes in "if only we declare a global emergency and collectively do what is right".....we have a chance to turn this ship around.
Me I think we can only stall, prepare and brace for impact, this will hurt.
Global harvest down the drain, a real problem without solution, a predicament.
Without sea ice no GIS or enough food to feed current population of mammals.
Anyway, welcome to our little group of ice junkies.
I wish the situation were different, a really huge bummer :cry:




I’ll start following along. Where are the data charts?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 17:50:48

Armageddon wrote:
diemos wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Is this one of those topics that has 50% pro and 50% anti and they argue back and forth?


It's a situation where the solutions are so painful that people prefer to live in denial and pretend there isn't a problem.



Sounds like:

Looming economic crash
Peak oil
911
Etc

Do you have a clue what 50% means? "Looming Economic Crash", as in "the big one", which will end life as we know it has SUPPOSEDLY been right in our face since I started paying attention about 35 years ago.

Now, what are the odds of a 50-50 event only going one way 35 times in a row? (I'll allow a year for the "in our face" event to unfold, although many fast crash doomers point to a new shiny toy monthly or even weekly).

Well, it's over 4 billion to 1 for 32 events, re computer science. So, multiply that by 8 for the extra 3 years, and you have well over 32 billion to one.

Does NOT sound like "Looming economic crash", except in the eyes of the perpetually delusional.

...

Besides, the evidence is squarely ON THE SIDE of this one. The real question is time, and whether technology will make mitigation possible soon enough to meaningfully help. (The longer we wait, the worse the problem gets, so I have serious doubts we'll make a serious effort in time).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 17:55:39

Alrighty then Amg,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6jhrIRp6Hs, relinky.

Latest Paul B. youtube on BOE.
https://paulbeckwith.net/

Since I am a lazy bum, I usually monitor only the daily yesterday Bremen chart for its clarity, detail on concentration:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 767,70.965

The above link to nullschool with the air temperature overlay, the thing is you can see the storms, highs and lows on different altitudes, the jet, etc.
Such a fine fun tool in real time.
For the more serious, Neven has lots of info and currents updates, contacts, discussions and the real science of climate being done on the pole.

Arctic sea ice blog:

https://neven1.typepad.com/

Enjoy!
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby diemos » Sat 03 Aug 2019, 18:42:00

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Now, what are the odds of a 50-50 event only going one way 35 times in a row? (I'll allow a year for the "in our face" event to unfold, although many fast crash doomers point to a new shiny toy monthly or even weekly).


Yup, they keep telling me I'm going to die someday but I've been alive for 480,000 hours. Do you know what the odds are of still being alive after 480,000 hours with a 50/50 chance of dying every hour? It's .5^480000 or infinitesimal. So this proves I'm going to live forever.
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Re:

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 04 Aug 2019, 09:34:50

Whitefang wrote:Alrighty then Amg,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6jhrIRp6Hs, relinky.

Latest Paul B. youtube on BOE.
https://paulbeckwith.net/

Since I am a lazy bum, I usually monitor only the daily yesterday Bremen chart for its clarity, detail on concentration:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 767,70.965

The above link to nullschool with the air temperature overlay, the thing is you can see the storms, highs and lows on different altitudes, the jet, etc.
Such a fine fun tool in real time.
For the more serious, Neven has lots of info and currents updates, contacts, discussions and the real science of climate being done on the pole.

Arctic sea ice blog:

https://neven1.typepad.com/

Enjoy!




Thanks.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 04 Aug 2019, 15:50:58

diemos wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Now, what are the odds of a 50-50 event only going one way 35 times in a row? (I'll allow a year for the "in our face" event to unfold, although many fast crash doomers point to a new shiny toy monthly or even weekly).


Yup, they keep telling me I'm going to die someday but I've been alive for 480,000 hours. Do you know what the odds are of still being alive after 480,000 hours with a 50/50 chance of dying every hour? It's .5^480000 or infinitesimal. So this proves I'm going to live forever.

There is a modern school of thought about it, I do not necessarily subscribe to it but here you are:
Every time you die Universe is splitting into two. In one of them wave function of your life has value=[dead] and your wife/GF (if you have any) is crying (or diligently searching your life insurance policy and laughing all the way to her bank) and then your body is burried and in second universe wave function of your life has value=[alive] so you are free to calculate (and wonder about) exceedingly low odds of still being alive after so and so many hours.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby diemos » Sun 04 Aug 2019, 17:11:35

I definitely don't subscribe to that interpretation of quantum mechanics.

I was just pointing out the mistake of thinking that just because something hasn't happened yet that it's never going to.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 05 Aug 2019, 09:14:34

Image
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 05 Aug 2019, 10:46:11

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... l#lastPost


The following is from someone on that thread who has not posted much, so I don't know his credibility, but I thought his comments were were worth paraphrasing and bulleting out:

Reasons to believe that the sea ice will not hit a record melt this year:
*Melt rate slows down at this time of year
*The winds are not as strong as 2012 [no GAC]
*the CAB ice seems to be pretty healthy compared with previous years (2016 and 2012).
*All the things seem to be predictable until mid September.
* [to add to his comments, while the sea ice extent right now is lower than 2012, the area is higher and thus the compaction % is higher than 2012]


Reasons to believe that sea ice could hit a record melt this year:
* the ice is not healthy as MODIS have shown.
* while The ice is compacted, it is full of tiny cracks and could be disintegrated if strong wind comes.
* The high SST is the potential ice killer.
* strong wind will not disappear in the melting season but delay because the arctic is too warm to form. The strong winds and storms need cold air to destabilize the upper troposphere.
* Once the thin ice meets strong winds at the end of melt season, the high SST surrounding the ice will result in Ekman pumping.
* the melt season will not stop as early as 2016 does because the Arctic is record breaking warm. It has the potential to extend the melt season to the mid September even the late September.


Here is the actual quote. He doesn't seem to be a native English speaker:

This thread becomes interesting. Fewer people are discussing on the state of ice right now. The greenhand may think the melt rate slows down and it will not break the record at this rate. The storm is not strong and the CAB ice seems to be pretty healthy compared with previous year(2016 and 2012). All the things seem to be predictable until mid September.

For those experienced person, they are just watching. They know the ice is not healthy as MODIS have shown. The ice is compacted but full of tiny cracks and could be completely disintegrated if strong wind comes. The high SST is the potential ice killer. They know the strong wind will not disappear in the melting season but delay because the arctic is too warm to form. The strong wind and storm really need cold air to distablize the upper troposphere. Once the thin ice meets strong wind at the end of melt season they know what it will mean to the ice with high SST surroundings(Ekman pumping). They also know the melt season will not stop as early as 2016 does because the Arctic is record breaking warm. It has the potential to extend the melt season to the mid September even the late September.

All these thinkings cause fewer people wants to discuss in this thread.
Climate Chaos is Coming
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Over a month of melt momentum to go.....

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 08:28:17

I hoped and though we would still be ok and not plunging into a BOE.
From the Tanada Bremen linky/graph today, we are not holding the 80 degree line with over a month of melt momentum to go.
Already some greens, that means half, above 85 degrees, not far from the pole.
Spitsbergen primed to become the last of the smaller anchoring islands, besides Greenland/Ellsmere that border the remains of the sea ice.
With Franz Joseph islands and Siberian islands about to be free of sea ice, the main pack is free to move in any direction except Canadian mainland, shield.
A new arctic cyclone or even a moderate depression could do a lot of harm.

I could very well be overreacting, that happens, cry wolf alarm but it looks pretty grim. :roll:
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